Speculation case study: The $8 Stock That Went to $300 and Back Again

What would you do if a stock you bought for $8 suddenly surged past $300? Would you sell, or convince yourself it was just getting started?In this  episode of From Abundance to Wealth, Josh Eisenberg shares a personal investing story that unfolded during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. What began as a small, clearly labeled speculative position in Novavax quickly turned into a front-row seat to one of the most dramatic market runs of the decade.Josh recounts buying the stock in February 2020 at around $8 per share, just as uncertainty about the virus was spreading. As lockdowns began and government funding poured in, including a $1.6 billion award from Operation Warp Speed, the stock soared past $300. But delays, competition from mRNA vaccines, and shifting realities eventually brought the price crashing back to where it started.Using the timeless framework of Benjamin Graham, Josh revisits the three criteria that separate true investments from speculation: the ability to analyze value, a margin of safety, and a productive asset. While this opportunity met two of the three, the absence of real analyzable fundamentals made it speculative, something Josh admits he momentarily forgot as momentum and hype took over.This episode is a vulnerable, practical look at how easily price can be mistaken for value, how discipline erodes during winning streaks, and why honest risk labeling and knowing when to exit matters most when everything seems to be going right.If you have ever ridden a market wave and wondered, “Should I sell?”, this episode is for you.Key TakeawaysSpeculation can deliver fast gains, but losses come just as quickly without fundamentalsGraham-style criteria: analyzable value, real margin of safety, and productive cash flowHype, funding, and FOMO can disguise speculation as certainty; discipline is criticalHolding through euphoria often wipes out gains; define exits earlyPartial revenue is not enough if future value cannot be analyzedReal wealth comes from honest labels and protecting principalIn This Episode[00:00] Introduction and investment framework[01:17] Discovery of Novavax and initial investment[02:20] Early stock movements and COVID-19 news[03:24] Government funding and stock surge[04:27] Decision to hold and stock volatility[05:21] Peak price and missed selling opportunity[06:26] Reflection on speculation vs. investment[07:25] Key takeaways and closingNotable Quotes  [05:57] “The bad news is I did not sell the majority of my shares when it went over 300. Would've been a great opportunity.” — Josh Eisenberg[06:10] “I forgot that this was a speculative investment.” — Josh Eisenberg[06:42] “So that limitation made it speculative. And when the market said that this was a $300 stock, which I paid $8 for, I forgot that it didn't have any revenues and I forgot that there was nothing to analyze.” — Josh Eisenberg[07:08] “I counted my money without thinking about it, and next thing I knew, I turned around and the stock had gone back down to $8.” — Josh Eisenberg[07:15] “I did sell a little bit along the way, so I made a little bit of money, but nothing near what I would have made if I had acted on this as I had originally planned.” — Josh Eisenberg[07:44] “It was relatively safe. It was a good bet. It turned out to be. I forgot that there was no dollar amount above $8 that I could really ascribe to this other than what the market was willing to pay. An example of pure speculation.” — Josh Eisenberg