Supply shocks and fiscal math: How the war is stress-testing India’s economy

In this episode of Businessline’s State of the Economy, host Shishir Sinha speaks with Kanika Pasricha, Chief Economic Advisor at Union Bank of India, to decode the early economic impact of geopolitical disruptions through high-frequency indicators. From the sharp dip in manufacturing PMI driven by cost escalation and supply-side shocks, to why retail inflation remains capped—for now—the discussion offers a nuanced view of stress points and resilience in the economy. The episode also examines GST collection trends, fiscal deficit arithmetic amid base-year revisions, GDP growth risks, and what to expect from the upcoming RBI monetary policy meeting as uncertainty continues to shape policy choices.