The Aviation Market Is Breaking: Why Some Aircraft Are Holding Value While Others Nosedive | EP 26

Podcast: The Truth About the Aviation Market Host: Jason Zilberbrand, President of VREFFor years, people talked about the “aircraft market” as if it were a single thing.Values rose togetherValues fell togetherAnd broad headlines were enough to describe what was happening.That era is over.In the first quarter of 2026, aircraft values are no longer moving in one cycle. The market has fragmented. Some aircraft remain highly liquid with stable or rising values. Others are quietly losing pricing power as lifecycle costs catch up with them.In this quarterly update episode of The Truth About the Market, Jason breaks down what the Q1 data actually shows — not the headlines, not the sentiment, but the structural forces now driving valuation divergence across the global fleet.The theme of this market is discipline. Buyers are still active. Financing still exists. Transactions are still happening.But they’re happening with far more scrutiny, far more underwriting precision, and far greater focus on lifecycle economics than we’ve seen in the past decade.In This Episode, You’ll DiscoverWhy aircraft values are no longer moving in a unified cycle across the fleetThe four structural variables now determining whether an aircraft holds value or erodesWhy late-model aircraft (0–7 years old) remain the most insulated segment of the marketHow OEM production backlogs are continuing to compress supply in the pre-owned marketThe hidden valuation shift happening in mid-life aircraft between 8 and 15 years oldWhy maintenance status—not age—is now determining mid-life aircraft pricingThe lifecycle pressures accelerating depreciation in aircraft over 20 years oldHow modernization costs are forcing buyers to compare legacy aircraft against newer alternativesThe surprising divergence between shrinking inventory and slower transaction closingsWhat a 43% drop in closed transactions really means for market disciplineWhy light jets are outperforming while turboprops are seeing selective softnessThe specific aircraft models currently absorbing the most liquidity in the marketHow rising interest rates permanently changed aircraft acquisition psychologyThe growing role of tariffs and import duties in aircraft purchase mathThe new ownership demographics entering business aviation and how they influence buying cyclesWhy hybrid ownership strategies like charter enrollment and leaseback structures are increasingThe macro forces still supporting aircraft values as we move through 2026The Bottom LineThe aviation market isn’t weakening…it’s maturing.Late-model aircraft continue to benefit from constrained supply and modern capabilityMid-life aircraft are entering a maintenance-driven valuation divideLegacy fleets are being repriced to reflect lifecycle reality.At the same time, financing discipline, capital costs, and technological expectations are reshaping how buyers evaluate aircraft entirely. This isn’t a downturn, it’s segmentation. And the owners, lenders, and operators who understand that segmentation will be best positioned to navigate the market ahead.For accurate, defensible aircraft valuations trusted by lenders, insurers, and professionals worldwide, visit VREF.com.Fly safe. Stay smart.