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The Electoral Effects of Impeachment

The House is moving toward impeachment. What are …

An episode of the The Science of Politics podcast, hosted by Niskanen Center, titled "The Electoral Effects of Impeachment" was published on November 6, 2019 and runs 40 minutes.

November 6, 2019 ·40m · The Science of Politics

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The House is moving toward impeachment. What are the electoral risks for Democrats in pursuit and Republicans in defense of President Trump? We learn from research on the role of the impeachment of Bill Clinton on the 1998 and 2000 elections and compare how things look today for Trump. Gary Jacobson finds that other factors overwhelmed impeachment in congressional elections, but a few Republicans may have been hurt. Irwin Morris finds that parties can work to protect their members who vote against their constituents’ opinions on impeachment. Both are expecting near-party-line votes this time with limited electoral effects, given polarized public opinion that is unlikely to move.

The House is moving toward impeachment. What are the electoral risks for Democrats in pursuit and Republicans in defense of President Trump? We learn from research on the role of the impeachment of Bill Clinton on the 1998 and 2000 elections and compare how things look today for Trump. Gary Jacobson finds that other factors overwhelmed impeachment in congressional elections, but a few Republicans may have been hurt. Irwin Morris finds that parties can work to protect their members who vote against their constituents’ opinions on impeachment. Both are expecting near-party-line votes this time with limited electoral effects, given polarized public opinion that is unlikely to move.
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