The Fiscal Spiral Has No Off Switch | Weekly Roundup

What this episode covers

This week, the trio is back! We discuss the Trump-China tariff deal, Tyler’s structural framework driven by political utility markets, the tax bill, and widening fiscal deficits. We also dig into the repatriation of foreign capital, the yield curve's breaking point, and how AI-driven productivity might justify tech valuations. Enjoy!—Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_incFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidanceForward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx—Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yIKpOcGu-wv67vfeKu5I7Lo17hftwgk/view?usp=sharing—Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comArkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworksEligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.—Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (01:05) Tyler’s Back! (03:53) China Deal & Tyler’s Framework (09:56) Inflation & Labor (11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham) (12:17) US Trade & Debt Reality (19:58) Generational Repatriation (22:23) MicroStrategy Monetizing Volatility (24:02) Inflation & Capital Controls (27:05) Tax Bill & Deficit Expansion (28:56) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham) (30:27) Dollar & Bond Market Breaking (35:32) Stock Flows, Volatility & Sentiment (38:08) US Equities & AI (43:14) Asian Currencies (45:21) New System in Motion (47:07) Short Bond Trade (49:34) Final Thoughts —Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How long is this episode of Forward Guidance?

This episode is 52 minutes long.

When was this Forward Guidance episode published?

This episode was published on May 17, 2025.

What is this episode about?

This week, the trio is back! We discuss the Trump-China tariff deal, Tyler’s structural framework driven by political utility markets, the tax bill, and widening fiscal deficits. We also dig into the repatriation of foreign capital, the yield...

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