The Global Economy Is Changing Rapidly

Raoul Pal and GMI's head of macro research Julien Bittel, CFA, open their biweekly "Shooting the Shit" episode, which is normally exclusive to Real Vision Alpha members and above, to everyone. It's a sneak peek into how the guys brainstorm, interpret charts and look for opportunities through the macro lens. In this episode, they break down the forces driving markets right now, from global liquidity and crypto regulation to AI, compute, energy, stablecoins, and they explain why the old business cycle framework may be losing power as the exponential age accelerates. Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction: The Exponential Age & Universal Code Thesis 1:40 - Trump, AI & Crypto: The Political Acceleration 4:07 - The US-China Grand Bargain: Trade, Taiwan & Nvidia 6:16 - Are We Mid-Cycle? The Case for a Supercycle 9:09 - Inflation, Compute Demand & Anthropic's Explosive Growth 11:37 - Crypto & Equity Chart Rundown (BTC, ETH, Circle, Tesla, Solar) 21:51 - Dollar, Rates & Copper: What to Watch 24:35 - Global Liquidity vs. Bitcoin: The Dominant Framework 30:02 - Portfolio Performance & Why You Shouldn't Trade Crypto 34:05 - The Buildout Has Only Begun: AI, Robots & the CapEx Supercycle 37:26 - Compute & Energy: The New GDP Formula 39:14 - The Economic Singularity & Why Old Macro Frameworks Are Broken 44:44 - Closing: Adapt Your Framework or Get Left Behind Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices