The Recession Signal Hidden in Consumer Inflation Expectations

Lucas and Luna dig into the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, released June 8, 2026, which shows household worries about finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. They explore how one-year-ahead inflation expectations have crept up to 3.2%, even as actual CPI has moderated. The hosts discuss why this divergence matters for the Fed's next move, how rising inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, and what the widening gap between consumer sentiment and official data has signaled before past recessions. They connect this to the VIX spike to 19.87 and the 10-year yield at 4.56%, showing how markets are pricing in stagflation risk. Lucas and Luna also break down the 'inflation expectations channel' and why the Fed watches this survey more closely than any other sentiment gauge. A focused, data-driven episode for anyone trying to read the economic tea leaves in mid-2026. #InflationExpectations #NewYorkFed #SurveyOfConsumerExpectations #FedPolicy #Stagflation #VIX #TreasuryYields #ConsumerSentiment #EconomicIndicators #Recession #MonetaryPolicy #CPI #HouseholdFinances #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #RecessionWatch #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo