The Recession Signal Hidden in Job Quits

Episode 60 of Recession Watch with Fexingo drills into the quits rate—the share of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs—as a leading indicator of economic confidence. Hosts Lucas and Luna examine how a rising quits rate signals a tight labor market and worker optimism, while a falling quits rate often precedes a downturn. They analyze the latest JOLTS data showing job openings jumped to 7.6 million in April 2026, but the quits rate remains historically low at 1.9%, unchanged for months. Lucas explains that quitters tend to quit for better pay or opportunity, so when that number drops, it suggests workers are 'hunkering down'—a pattern that preceded the 2001 and 2008 recessions. Luna challenges whether the current low quits rate reflects genuine caution or structural factors like demographic shifts and remote work. The episode connects to broader Fed uncertainty under new chair Kevin Warsh, who faces a divided committee and an economy with slowing GDP growth but still-tight labor markets. A natural donation segment appears around the 75% mark, tied to the show's listener-supported model. The episode concludes with Lucas noting that if the quits rate stays low through summer, it may be the most reliable recession signal yet. #RecessionWatch #Economics #JobQuits #QuitsRate #JOLTS #LaborMarket #GDP #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #Unemployment #EconomicIndicators #WorkerConfidence #LucasAndLuna #Fexingo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicCycles Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo