The Simple Side's Saturday Sendout: No Major Portfolio Changes | Impressive Portfolio Returns

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.comQuick Reminders:Our disclosure is in the email footerPortfolio copy trading is available hereTo Simple Side Shareholders — good morning! I am glad to have you join me for another Saturday Sendout. As a reminder, you can find our podcast on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Music, and here on Substack! Updates The new format going forward will look similar to this in our weekly updates:* FREE* Market Commentary & News* Quick Insider Trade Updates* Interesting Trade Ideas* Portfolio Performance* PAID* Portfolio Holdings & Updates* Portfolio Strategies, Updates & New Bets* Our Weekly Picks* Mergers & Acquisitions Picks* Top Stock PicksAs a reminder, all of this will be accessible to you via copy trading. Remember that these portfolios ARE NOT GET-RICH-QUICK portfolios. I am focused on long-term market outperformance. There will be updates made to the paid subscriber spreadsheet as well, but I will likely update everyone on those when they are completed! A few quick updates on all of the thoughts that you have been submitting. * I have added a spot on my paid subscriber spreadsheet to track positions across all my portfolios that are “overextended” or are “oversold” and could be trimmed or added to in your personal portfolios.* Someone was also asking for “Morning Tea” which I assume means that they want to see daily morning market news. Well… I have that already! You can go over to The Simple Side Daily and subscribe there!Market CommentaryThe big picture* Indices: Nasdaq +2.0%, S&P 500 +1.6%, Dow +1.0% (equal-weight lagged again). Tech did the heavy lifting—semis popped and Oracle stole the show.* Rates & odds: Headline PPI +0.4% m/m and initial claims up to 263k reinforced the “cooling, not collapsing” narrative. Markets kept a near-lock on a 25 bp Fed cut this month and left the door open for another by year-end.* Tone: Mega-caps outran everything else; cyclicals and energy were choppy with oil hovering near $62–$64.Tech & AI — the week’s horsepower* Oracle (ORCL): With remaining performance obligations at $455B (up 359% y/y), Oracle said it’s scaling cloud infrastructure for AI customers (think training clusters, inference at the edge). Translation: multi-year visibility plus room to raise capacity pricing if demand stays hot.* Synopsys (SNPS): With its purchase of Ansys now complete, Synopsys guided FY25 revenue to $7.03–$7.06B and said it’s steering chip-design IP toward AI, autos and high-speed connectivity, while trimming lines snarled by export controls and foundry bottlenecks. That’s code for “more dollars where demand is compounding, less where geopolitics slow POs.”* TSMC (TSM) & the supply chain: August sales +34% y/y and sequentially higher—evidence that AI silicon demand is still outrunning capacity. ASE (ASX) echoed strength in assembly/test; Texas Instruments (TXN) talked up data-center revenue potentially jumping ~50% into 2025 as AI buildouts need a lot more power, sensing and analog.* Adobe (ADBE): Record Q3 ($5.99B revenue) and a guidance lift as AI features (Acrobat AI Assistant et al.) pushed AI-influenced ARR >$5B. The story here isn’t just cool demos—it’s higher seat expansion and premium SKU mix.* Microsoft & OpenAI: A new pact lets OpenAI restructure into a for-profit while keeping Microsoft’s access to the tech. Expect faster capital raises on OpenAI’s side and more consumption for Azure on Microsoft’s.EVs & autos — growth meets growing pains* Rivian & Tesla: Rivian recalled 24k vehicles (software fix for Hands-Free Highway Assist); Tesla lost another senior engineer as leadership churn continues. Software credibility and talent retention matter when you’re selling autonomy as a feature.* Ford: 1.46M vehicles recalled for rear camera issues—costly, but more importantly it’s yet another reminder that legacy quality control remains under the microscope.* XPeng: Unveiled the Next P7 in Europe (durability + AI focus) while separately recalling 47,490 P7+ sedans in China for a steering gear replacement. Global expansion only works if home-market reliability cooperates.* NIO: Announced an equity raise (~$1B) to fund core EV tech and its swapping/charging network. Dilutive near-term, but it buys runway to keep the ecosystem moving.* Hyundai/LG Energy JV: A U.S. immigration raid paused construction at the Georgia battery site—an unexpected supply-chain speed bump for an otherwise aggressive U.S. EV footprint.Energy, resources & industrials — rewiring the world* SpaceX ↔ EchoStar: SpaceX is buying EchoStar’s AWS-4 + H-block spectrum for ~$17B (half cash, half SpaceX stock, plus it covers $2B of EchoStar interest through Nov ’27). This gives Starlink cellular-grade spectrum for Direct-to-Cell service; for EchoStar it’s a de-leveraging event with growth optionality instead of bond math.* Apollo ↔ RWE / Amprion: €3.2B equity commitment to back RWE’s 25.1% stake in grid operator Amprion. Why care? Regulated grid assets throw off stable dividends while Europe’s electrification needs colossal capex.* Baker Hughes: Won liquefaction equipment for Rio Grande LNG Train 4—more evidence U.S. LNG buildout momentum is intact even with softer spot prices.* Chevron: Plans to lean into South Korea petrochemicals via GS Caltex—not just fuels, but higher-margin materials as the refining cycle normalizes.* Freeport-McMoRan: Temporarily halted operations at Grasberg to search for workers after a mudflow—human priority first, and near-term copper volumes likely trimmed.* Energy Fuels: U.S.-processed rare earths showed up in EV magnets—a small technical win with big strategic implications for a China-light supply chain.Deals, capital & corporate moves — the money map* PNC x FirstBank (Colorado): PNC agreed to buy FirstBank for $4.1B (cash/stock), aiming to triple its branch footprint in Colorado. In plain English: PNC wants to be the go-to regional bank in one of the country’s fastest-growing economies, and deposits are the prize.* Anglo American ↔ Teck (rumored ~$20B): Would super-charge Anglo’s copper exposure just as grids, EVs and AI data centers gobble it up.* Phillips 66: Buying the remaining 50% of WRB Refining from Cenovus for $1.4B, taking full control of Wood River & Borger—simpler governance, cleaner allocation, better utilization.* Exxon Mobil: Acquiring U.S. assets of Superior Graphite to make synthetic graphite domestically by 2029—critical battery material without Chinese dependence.* Barrick: Selling Hemlo (Canada) for up to $1.09B to refocus on Tier-One gold/copper; Iberdrola lifting Neoenergia stake to 84% to deepen regulated networks in Brazil.* Figure (FIGR) IPO: $787.5M raised; Klarna priced at $40/sh (valued $15.1B); Alibaba upsized with $3.17B zero-coupon converts; Nebius lined up $3.75B debt/equity to scale AI data centers (tied to its Microsoft deal).* Veritone, Avidity, Astronics: More raises across AI and aero-sat niches—dilutive, yes, but they keep the growth engines funded into 2026.Health care & life sciences — pipeline beats and portfolio pruning* Eli Lilly: Late-stage Jaypirca data in leukemia extended progression-free survival; commercial upside grows beyond obesity/diabetes.* Novartis: Buying Tourmaline Bio ($1.4B) for pacibekitug (cardio)—continuing the “buy the best shots on goal” strategy in large chronic markets.* UnitedHealth: Reaffirmed 2025 EPS ≥ $16 on $445.5–$448B revenue; steadier guide helps the managed-care tape after a volatile year.* Regeneron & Sandoz: Settlement clears a path for an Eylea biosimilar in late 2026—margin pressure later, but also clarity for modeling.* Teva: Fast-track tag for emrusolmin (Multiple System Atrophy) accelerates timelines where treatments are scarce.* Summit Therapeutics: Phase 3 ivonescimab showed a survival trend but missed investor hopes; stock reset reflects the difference between “stat-sig” and “close.”Consumer & retail — winners know their lane* Apple Watch: Hypertension detection rolls out post-FDA clearance across 150 regions—health features keep Apple’s wearables sticky and raise upgrade intent.* Oxford Industries: Reiterated $1.475–$1.515B FY sales; Lilly Pulitzer and emerging brands offset softness at Tommy Bahama/Johnny Was—portfolio balance doing its job.* Potbelly: Accepted a $17.12/sh take-private by RaceTrac; Black Rock Coffee Bar raised $294M in its IPO—yes, we live in the golden age of caffeinated cap tables.* Pop Mart: Added to Hang Seng but slid on demand worries—index love doesn’t always equal sell-through love.* RH: Lifted ’25 revenue growth to 9–11%, pushing harder into Europe and shifting sourcing away from China to dull tariff bite.Media, software & cyber — cash flows and curveballs* BILL Holdings: Starboard nominated four directors (8.5% stake). Expect more talk about margins, go-to-market focus, and buybacks.* Vimeo: Being acquired by Bending Spoons for $1.38B cash ($7.85/sh)—a premium exit that ends its lonely life as a stand-alone public SaaS.* SentinelOne: Buying Observo AI to beef up data pipelines for SIEM/SOC—because detection is only as good as the exhaust you can digest.* Mitsubishi Electric: Moving to acquire Nozomi Networks—OT/IoT security is now must-have, not nice-to-have, for industrial giants.* Cerence: Building an in-car work assistant with Microsoft 365 Copilot + Intune controls—hands-free, IT-approved email and docs while parked (we hope).Banks & insurers — blocking and tackling* U.S. Bancorp: Dividend up 4% to $0.52 (≈4.2% forward yield).* Arthur J. Gallagher: Buying Bremer Insurance from Old National to bulk up P&C distribution.* PNC recap (because clarity matters): The FirstBank deal is PNC paying $4.1B to acquire a Colorado-focused bank so it can triple its branch count in the state, grab more low-cost deposits, and cross-sell loans and wealth to a fast-growing local customer base. That’s the whole play.Insider Trade UpdatesInsiders don’t always get it right… but they do get the best seats in the house. Here are this week’s trades that made us raise an eyebrow (and maybe place a limit order). As a side note, I try to stay away from insiders buying up their penny stock company. While these can still be great signals, the risk-to-reward ratio isn’t one I find favorable.We keep track of all of these trades on our Google sheet, and then insider returns are quite astounding…Buy the Dip TrackerInsiders buying after meaningful drawdowns — percent and window included.* VBIX — Viewbix Inc.Director bought 260,000 @ $1.00 after a 41.27% one-month drop. Private placement—treat $1.00 as the pivot; strength above keeps the squeeze thesis alive.* CE — Celanese CorporationDirector bought 1,039 @ $46.25 after a 62.61% one-year slide. Fifth insider buy in 30 days; use $46.25 as your risk line and look for a push back above the 20-day.* KURA — Kura OncologyPresident & CEO bought 50,000 @ $8.20 after a 59.05% one-year decline. CEO skin in the game on a beaten-up biotech—confirmation is a higher low above $8.20 with volume.Whales & Standout Size ($1M+)Large prints that can set floors.* SFD — Smithfield Foods: Director bought 1,800,000 @ $23.25 ($41.85M). Seven insider buys in 30 days—size + cluster.* MLYS — Mineralys Therapeutics: Director bought 1,176,470 @ $25.50 ($30.0M) and 588,235 @ $25.50 ($15.0M). Back-to-back eight-figure adds.* CELC — Celcuity: 10% Owner bought 170,100 @ $56.27 ($9.57M).* ABAT — American Battery Technology: CEO bought 2,525,497 @ $0.99 ($2.5M); paired with another insider buy—watch for a base forming.* ASA — ASA Gold & Precious Metals: 10% Owner bought 33,459 @ $38.71 ($1.3M) and later 24,510 @ $40.50. Programmatic cadence, but still real money.* REZI — Resideo: Director bought 29,460 @ $34.01 ($1.0M).Officer Skin-in-the-GameExecutives opening their wallets.* NVCR — NovoCure: CEO bought 81,550 @ $12.22.* COO — The Cooper Companies: President & CEO bought 10,000 @ $68.39; fourth insider buy in 30 days.* BUSE — First Busey: President bought 18,420 @ $25.48.Cluster & Repeat BuyingPatterns that upgrade signal quality.* ABAT: CEO + Chief Mineral Resource Officer buys in the same 30-day window.* ASA: 11th and 12th insider buys in 30 days—steady weekly accumulation.* CE: Fifth insider buy in 30 days—consensus forming.* LAB — Standard BioTools: Another 500,000 @ $1.27; third insider purchase in 30 days.* OCTO — Eightco Holdings: Two director buys (342,466 and 136,986 @ $1.46)—small cap, but clustered.* COO: Ongoing insider activity, including the CEO add noted above.Interesting Trade Ideas & Berkshire BuysThis past week, we focused on all of the incoming IPOs. Sadly, allocations were scarce, and overall returns were mild. We saw few (if any) stocks really jump higher post-IPO, and while most of the returns were at or above 20%, the lack of shares and lower-than-expected gains were disappointing. I will be looking into the StubHub and Pattern IPOs as potential upcoming trades; of course, these will entirely be dependent on the oversubscription rates and the potential upside I see in the companies. A future IPO that I would love to get my hands on is Netskope. I have a firm belief that cybersecurity will only become more and more integral as reliance on AI and the digital world grows. Plus, vibe coding (aka coding with AI) is only growing in popularity. People are creating websites in days instead of months, but vibe coding has one main issue: security… Basically, AI creates code that works, but is very hackable, and guess who/what solves that issue… You guessed it! If you want to read more about this, check out this article by Databricks. As always, I am on the lookout for my next “Berkshire Buy” stock. These companies fit Buffett’s criteria for investing, and are analyzed from that exact viewpoint. Here are some of those stocks and their returns:Portfolio PerformanceTracking portfolio performance is going to look somewhat different for everyone. Not everyone will buy at the same time, not everyone will DCAs the same amount, and not everyone will be willing to hold through the downturns like others. So, performance will vary moderately between investors. The returns shown in Autopilot screenshots (aka my copytrading partner) will represent the average return of all investors who copy my portfolios. That means the returns in the Autopilot app won’t always match 1:1 the returns on the paid subscriber spreadsheet, but the holdings and trades will always match up!We launched our portfolios on Autopilot just last month and have already surpassed the S&P 500 index year to date! Paying subscribers get direct access to all of these portfolios & real-time updates by joining paid here.Portfolio Holdings & UpdatesCopy Trading LinksFLAGSHIP FUND: LINKAI Second-Hand Effects: LINKTech-Growth: LINKBehind this paywall, you can see all of our portfolio holdings. If you are already a paying subscriber, you won’t see the paywall and should be able to see all of the holdings.