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Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, ladies and gentlemen, degenerates, gamblers, fans of the NFL's Shield, fans of Chiefs Kingdom, fantasy football players, anybody I might have left out. For and wide, welcome in to episode number 105 of the Talking to Line podcast, and as always, thank you so much for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with the crew on this beautiful August 18th, 2021. Now, I know you saw the title, I know you just heard me, we're talking everything, Chiefs today, going into 2021, but before we give you the full season preview, please take a few moments too. Smash that subscribe button on whatever platform you are currently ingesting the Talking to Line podcast on.
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Last but certainly not least, head on over to this episode's description where you will find the Talking to Line link tree. Then that link to it, you'll see Talking to Line dot com, our website where you'll find everything TTL, but you also see our additional content and our social platforms. So that all being said, you can consume it however and whenever you please from one central location. Ladies and gentlemen, beautiful gambling people NFL fans, fantasy football players, Kansas City Chiefs fans, TTL faithful, Everybody in between, I am your humble host, Colton, call 45 Soroka.
And once again, thank you so much for choosing to stop by the Talking to Line podcast today. We got a good show cooked up for you right on tap. But before we get going with that, I got to bring in the second half of that aforementioned we I need my partner on the show so we can dissect maybe have a little bit of banter, maybe have a little bit of disagreements. You can't always listen to my opinions.
We need somebody else here too. So without further ado, let's bring in the white socks die hard, the green Bay Fac- The green Bay Packers cheese head himself. Don't you give me that look, you know where I lie either way. Ladies and gentlemen, the man, the myth, the degenerate gambling legend himself, Mr.
Riley, R-Max, Magnuson. partner, how you doing over there? My man, anyone here out there, I am doing fantastic. My green Bay Packers are ready to get this season rocking and rolling.
They are on this team schedule that we'll be talking about today. But yeah, I'm excited to talk about this team. How couldn't you that the two time defending AFC champions going to be tough to repeat that feet once again as it is historically in the NFL. But you know, this team might just be historically great.
So I'm excited to dive into this team, my friend. Show enough, we have plenty to discuss, plenty to talk about everything in between in relation to the Chiefs. Now, yesterday we covered the Jacksonville Jaguars. If you missed any of that, hey, just peruse on back to episode 104 after we get done here with episode 105 and you'll get everything.
We have covered almost halfway through every NFL team. So far we are on the 16th NFL special edition, having an absolute blast doing it, getting ready for the NFL season. My knowledge feels off the charts. I don't know about you, partner.
And I hope that you guys are getting the value out of this as well because I am ready to get back to business as usual. And cash in NFL tickets. But that all be instead. What do we got on today's show?
Well, as always, if you haven't been around before, we got the full lineup breakdown. We'll be talking offense and defense and the coaching staff will give you all of our opinions, the 2021 outlook and then now the full lineup is everything on that end. We'll also look at their full schedule. I'll break it down week by week for you.
And then we'll give you our predictions across the boards for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2021. Then speaking of boards, we're sports gambling shows. We're going to be giving you a full betting preview as well, plenty of value on the Chiefs. But I suggest you tune into that because there might not be as much value as you think.
However, we'll wrap everything up with the fourth and final segment of the day. Start stash or pass our best fantasy advice because we have been in the same league for the better part of a decade and playing fantasy football for well over a decade now. So that's all on top today with that all being said, partner. Any late breaking news, anything I missed left out here before I get the show, Stephen down the tracks.
No, sir. I think we're ready to rock. All right. Without further ado, my friends.
Today's team of the day is the Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs Kingdom. You know it. Arrowhead Stadium. Now back to full capacity in 2021.
And I believe that is going to play large into the Kansas City Chiefs schedule this year. However, we got plenty of time to talk all about that. But before we get into the first segment of the day, my friends, as always, morning cheers to you. Morning cheers to you partner.
Quick little swig of the French vanilla creme brulee. Mm hmm. Then I was like that up and that's a good couple Joe. All right, ladies and gentlemen, let's get with it.
We're wrapping. We got a loaded show coming at you right now. First segment of the day. The entire team break down for those aforementioned Kansas City Chiefs as always starting things off on the offensive side of the ball and I'll get things going here with the key offensive losses and kick it over to my partner for the key additions.
Now, as far as the offensive losses go, quite a few names. They let go 12 guys, 13 guys in general. I'll tell you all about him. Let two running backs go of note.
Obviously, Leville on Bell. He's still floating around in free agency and then Damien Williams, who is now on my bears. I love to what I saw from him in preseason week one. Can't wait to see how they utilize him going throughout the season.
Ricky seals Jones tight end out of town. Also Dion Edler out of town, both tight ends, but obviously we know Travis Kelsey Pian on this team. That's not the most notable thing here with offenses being out of town. Eric Fisher left tackle is Gonzo Mitchell Swartz, right tackle Dunzo, Kalichi Osamele, left guard and Stefan Wissnuski left guard.
Both those guys are out of town. Austin Ryder Center and Daniel Kilgore Center. We'll talk a little bit about center as well. They brought in two new guys interested to see what happens there.
Anthony Sherman, the old dog full back, finally retires from the NFL. He's out of there and then Sammy Watkins. We all know he went to Baltimore. We already talked a little bit about him.
So he's out of Kansas City as well. That does it for all the key losses. Just so I tell you correctly, 3, 6, 9, 12 in general. It was not 13.
It was 12. Right off the bat. So 12 guys out of Chief's Kingdom. Part of who do they backfill the guys they let go with.
Alright, so they did a decent job of backfill in those spots. As you mentioned, they did a very good job of backfilling those offensive line departures there. Starting with the running back room. They did bring in Jerrick McKinnon.
Going to be probably the third running back. Could see himself finding that second running back spot over Daryl Williams. We shall see Michael Burton at full back. We'll see if they'll use him similarly to how they use Anthony Sherman.
Obviously you just said that he's out of town. But a couple of the bigger ones they brought in Joe Thunney, left guard previously with the Patriots. And they brought in Orlando Brown trade from the Ravens. Both of those guys are going to be major factors for this offensive line.
Aside from that, they also bring in Blake Bell, tight end going to be second or third tight end. Not a huge factor. He's been on five different teams including Kansas City in 2019. Back then he played 15 games only at eight catches.
So not really a big factor in the pass catching side of things there. Could be a nice blocker when he does see the field. You mentioned partner centers. They brought in Austin Blythe.
Going to be competing for that number one spot. He's going to be competing with now moving into the draft picks here. Their second round picked Creed Humphrey center out of Oklahoma. As it stands right now, I was seeing some practice rumors from this past week that Humphrey is actually taking snaps with that first team offense.
So that was their biggest pick up in the draft, at least on the offensive side of things. Next few picks they made on the offensive side of the ball. Fifth round tight end Noah Gray out of Duke. I mentioned Blake Bell could be competing for the second and third spot.
He's going to be competing with Noah Gray for those second spots. And then Cornell Powell out of Clemson, wide receiver in the fifth round should be that fifth wide receiver for them this year. We shall see. I have not heard how he's doing in camp quite yet.
And then lastly, six round offensive guard. They pick up Trace Smith out of Tennessee. It could be actually moving himself into the lineup if Kyle Long sees him extended time out of the rotation. So that could be a potential week spot with a six round rookie coming in there.
But we'll talk about that in a second here. But that about does it for the offensive edition. So your partner. I so you know who they lost.
You know who they got. Let's tell you about some stats from 2020 before we get all the way into 2021. Now, as far as key stats go offensively, the Chiefs average 6.3 yards per play last year. They rushed the ball on 37.4, 3% of their plays and passed on 62.5, 7.
Across the board, obviously Mahomes missed a few games with injury. They had a completion percentage of 66.49%. Third downs, they converted at a 48.02 clip and in the red zone, they converted at a 58.90 clip. So actually you would think third down and red zone might be a little bit higher from the Chiefs.
And I do expect it to improve just a little bit. Obviously the red zone being almost right at 60. You can't improve all too much, but I would beg to differ. I think you can improve a little bit upon that.
And I think that that is going to be one of the focuses of Andy Reid's offense here this year. But we'll talk about that here in just a second in the outlook. Let me tell you about the projected starters here. My partner mentioned it.
Obviously there's a little bit of competition going on throughout this offensive line. So it might change from what I tell you, but this is kind of looking like what it's going to be offensive line here. Orlando Brown Jr. left tackle.
They picked him up out of Baltimore. That's absolutely huge for them on the left side. You mentioned him, Joe Thuny at a New England. Great pick up on the left side as well.
Competition you mentioned between Austin Blithe and then the new guy coming in Creed Humphrey. Those two guys are kind of running it out. Looks like Humphrey might edge him out for the starting job, but Blithe is also a very solid offense lineman in himself. Kyle Long obviously injured.
So not too certain who's going to take that position quite as of yet, but you also mentioned some of the guys taking those first round reps. And then quite possibly Remers as well on the right side, but that again is another position right now that is up kind of a debate. So right now the right side of the line is kind of in a competition. The left side of the line, if you will, is pretty cemented in.
And if you want to include the center and the right side of the line, that's kind of where it all is in competition now. Obviously have their tight end lockdown for the foreseeable future Travis Kelsey now beardless for the 2021 season. Very interesting. We'll see if that comes back or not.
Patty Mahomes quarterback. We all know that it's Patrick. I apologize Patrick Mahomes. QB one obviously chat Henny backing him up once again.
We have C E H Clyde Edwards, a layer man in this backfield getting the majority of the workload, but they did retain Darryl Williams and you mentioned it brought in Jerick McKinnon. I don't know how much work McKinnon's going to get, but I do think that Williams will get a significant amount of the goal line work because he just could not get the ball in the goal line last year. Hopefully he improves upon that this year, especially from a fantasy perspective. But we'll talk about that.
Don't you worry. Then as far as the wide receiver room goes, obviously you got Chita coming back. Tyree Kill. Demarkus Robinson on the opposite side of him would love to see some improvement from him.
He showed some flashes in the past, but just not as consistent as you would like. Same can be said to about me Cole Harman in this slot. He could definitely have a lot more games where he could be putting up 60, 70, 80, 90 consistent consistent consistent. I know Chita and Kelsey take a lot of those teal gone receptions, but still they could see a lot of improvement this year.
So that does it across the board. They also have Byron Pringle and Powell potentially looking might go into a wide receiver spot. I'm not entirely sure what's going to happen there, but obviously we know they had their three core. It looks like they're going to stick with them.
Right. So in my opinion, before you let me know and them know what you're thinking here, partner, I think that we see the same Kansas City Chiefs offense we have for the last three years. There are a few key areas that they can improve upon, and I think that they do so. I won't necessarily go all the way through all of that nonsense because it would take another hour and a half.
However, the few areas that they can improve upon are very, very nitpicky. And obviously you would expect that with being a championship level team like this. In my mind, they're going to be right around the average of 28, 35 points a game once again. It's going to be no problem for them.
The biggest factor we saw was when in the Super Bowl that this offense wasn't successful when Patrick Mahomes got severely pressured. Well, offensive lines back in full health. Obviously we got a little bit of competition. So that's always good if there's competition.
That means there's some solid guys on the offensive line. So I don't think they have to worry about that this year. Patty Mahomes gives plenty of drop back opportunities. Can do is 30 yard drop back straight, run around 15 yards in either direction and then find Chita down the middle for an 80 yard touchdown.
So that's my opinion on the Kansas City offense this year. Partner, how are you feeling in general for 2021? Yeah, I mean, I'm mostly right in line with you. You kind of basically said that we really don't have to waste time talking about Mahomes, Kelsey, Tyree, Kiltos, three guys are going to be the same three guys that we've seen and have seen dominate for the last few years and a few of them for the last five to six years.
So that's not going to change. But I mean, you mentioned that offensive line, they look healthy. Two guys that they brought on the left side. They should be very, very solid.
That's obviously for this offense, the more important side of things. I'm a little concerned of the injuries that we've seen, you know, six rounds running. Right guard possibly slot in there. I'm a little concerned about that, but I think they'll figure it out.
Kind of as you mentioned, really the extra factor for me is if a C.E.H. can pick things up in the passing game as far as EPA estimated points added per play. He had a negative number when he was targeted. So I need that to go positive.
And if that is the case, you know, then this offense unlocks a whole new level that we didn't even know exists. And that's terrifying for the rest of the NFL. So I, you know, as a fan of someone else, I hope that doesn't happen. As a fan of great football, I do hope that happens because he is electrifying.
And like you said, it doesn't come in the goal line. He's not effective running it straight through the tackles. So I think they know his strengths and they're going to find ways to utilize him in the correct ways because he is very dangerous. But aside from that, obviously, if you can get some production from Robinson and Harbmann, at least consistently like you mentioned, then, you know, that unlocks a whole new extra level.
But I mean, for the most part, a lot of those guys are there to take the top off the defense and create these opportunities for the other guys. But, you know, for the most part, like you said, it is going to be the same offense that we've seen for the last couple of years. It's just a matter of, you know, injury health is really the biggest factor in my opinion here. Yeah, no question.
I'm glad you mentioned the running back passing efficiency or pass game efficiency rather because that is one of the keys that they do need to improve upon this year. Actually, Warren Sharp wrote pretty heavily on that as something that he needs to see improve as well. Obviously, it's nitpicking. Obviously, it wasn't terrible, but they do need to improve upon that in the long run here.
And then outside of that, also kind of mentioned the red zone. The red zone is going to be big for them as well. You would like to see them a little bit higher with it, obviously, as high power of an offense that they have. So those are a couple areas for them to improve upon, but we keep saying this is going to be the cookie cutter Kansas City Chiefs offense that we have known to come to know and love at this point in the game.
Or hate depending on who you are. That too. But put a cap on it across the board. Quarterback come in as the number one ranked unit in the league per SFA.
Obviously, you can't argue with that. Adam Patrick Mahomes and Chad Henny has been able to step up in time to time when Patrick Mahomes has gone out with injury offensive line six ranked unit in the league per SFA. I would agree with that. I definitely think that they have opportunity to even get into the top three.
It looks like with this competition that they're going to have plenty of solid guys to choose from across the board. Running backs not as highly ranked 20th unit in the league right now. Obviously, you have plenty of room to improve upon that. But obviously, with the lack of passing efficiency out of that room, the lack of some of the goal line work from CEH and goal line production and the touchdowns.
That's obviously going to lead to a little bit of question marks and give them that well deserved middle of the pack rating. But once again, chance to improve. I think they could even get into the top 10 receiver unit doesn't need much question. Obviously, this comes a lot.
This ranking of third unit in the league comes a lot from having Travis Kelsey and Tyree kill. Obviously, those other guys are a little bit of a question mark, but I think we see improvements from Hardman this year and not only Hardman also on the opposite side of him. I think we see improvements from Robinson as well. So we'll see how everything goes.
But that is the rankings kind of forecasted looking in 2021 for the offense. Quickly, let's hop into the defensive side of the ball here, my friend. And let's take a look. As always, if you be so kind, kick things off for us here.
Tell myself and the kind of folks out there. What's some key defensive losses for the Kansas Chiefs going into 2021? All right. So they lost the handful of depth here.
Nothing that's going to slap you in the face and make you too concerned here. But they did lose a few guys that played a lot of games last year. Antonio Hamilton defensive back played 16 games for him last year. Damien Willson, linebacker played 13 games to know past Saginaw.
I apologize. That is not going to come out of my mouth correctly. There he came into 16 games off the edge last year. Alex Okafor off the edge played 11 games as well.
Bishad Brelin, cornerback played 11 games. That's probably the bigger loss of this defense. It's an Opus Aganon. It's an Opus Aganon.
Okay. Mike Penell, interior defensive line played 14 games as well. A lot of depth here off the top of things. As I mentioned, Bishad Brelin in that cornerback spot was one of their bigger losses.
But aside from that, you know, they filled some of these holes. And, you know, like I said, none of these guys are going to make you too concerned as far as losing a partner. No, no question about that. Obviously, they were a little bit more offensive heavy in the draft and in free agency.
They still did bring a few guys in defensively. They didn't lose up too many guys of importance, as you said. So, Jared Reed, interior defensive lineman brought him in on a $5.5 million deal. Might use, picked him up in a trade.
It looks like they're going to slot him in immediately. No pun intended at slot corner. And then also Will Parks, they brought him in safety, but he's in on under a million dollar contract. So very little minimal cap hit and very low risk, high reward potential there with Will Parks.
More of a depth add. Obviously, they have great safeties. We'll talk about him in a minute. And then in the draft, they brought in Nick Bolton, linebacker Adam Mizzou.
I think he has potential to work into this depth chart. Maybe top of the depth chart very early. He had a great career at Mizzou. And I think he has a great NFL career here with the Chiefs.
Also, Josiah Kando, defensive in at a Florida State. Can't tell you all too much about him, but obviously more depth at the defensive line. It's just never hurt. So there you go.
Five guys in general either trade, free agency or out of the draft on defense. Now, before we get into the 2021 outlook, tell you about the lineup and what we're thinking we see from them. As far as their 2020 key stats, the Kansas City Chiefs allowed opponents to average 5.6 yards per play. They had their opponents completing around a 62.75% completion.
On third down, they allowed components components opponents opponents to convert at a 40.53 clip. And in the red zone, yikes. They allowed their opponents to score at 72.88% clip. So much like the offense needs to improve in the red zone.
The defense needs to improve in the opposite way in the red zone. So that's a big thing here that we're going to need to see from them right off the bat. You're just seeing that from 2020 stats. Now, as far as the defense goes, starters are going to look kind of the same.
Going to look a little bit different across the board. But overall, you know a lot of these names. Mike Dana is going to be defensive end on the right side left side. However, you want to look at it in a Frank Clark opposite of him.
Then you have Chris Jones and Derek Nandi on the inside. Look like they're going to get the starts. Willie Gay and Anthony Hichins look like they're going to back up around out the front seven. Also told you that quite possibly Bolton could get a position here sooner rather than later in this team or maybe give some much needed rest to Hichins and Gay after they have some of their electric plays that we've come to know and love from his defense as well.
Speaking of electric plays staying in the deep backfield and he's really not a safety. He's about every position you could want to be in. That's Tyrant Matthew, the honey badger he's coming back once again. Thornhill opposite of him in the deep backfield.
Then you have the defensive backs. This is one of the top defensive backs. Defensive backs or defensive back units rather in the league in my opinion. They have Sneed Hughes and Ward all rounding up to the top of the depth sharp.
They have a solid depth start as well. So if anything happens, I'm not too worried all about that. I don't think they have crazy numbers as far as turnovers or production like that. But I do think they limit opposing offenses to very, very minimal yardage in my opinion.
So that's what it looks like. Defensive side of the ball is kind of what the starters will be obviously 2021. It sounds like across the board that Kansas City is really having a lot of competition just all over the field. It's defensive offensive, what position it might be.
So if you needed to be worried even more that the Kansas City Chiefs were going to be a freaking powerhouse again this year, well, you got your answer. They have plenty of depth. They're having plenty of competitions and they have very few mistakes to correct. As far as defense, I don't think they have a whole lot of mistakes to correct.
They have only continued to improve. We'll talk about them in a minute. But Steve Spagnolo has made this defense look really, really good over the last three years. I think that continues.
I think we see improvements. They signed a lot of these guys long term deals and they did that for a reason because they're going to continue to produce. Not really much you can say about the defense either because I think it's a lot of what we have seen once again over the last three years and those areas that you might need to see improvements. You're going to see them here this year and I will save any breath that I'm going to want back on my death bed because I think it's just going to be the same old drum.
Yeah, I really can't add too much here, my man. I mean, kind of like you said earlier, this team, you know, it's not going to be a top five defense. It's going to be the reason they win all these games, but it's going to do enough to put this offense in a position to win a lot of games like they had the last few years and like they really have in the entire year, whether it's my homes or not. And that's going to be a lot of what we see this year.
You know, I don't love this entire defense on paper to some of these names, but when you put them all together and you know, kind of what I said, they just do whatever they need to do to put this team in position to win games and put Patrick Mahomes in position, whether it's him to close out those games or be down by a score with the last five minutes to go down and win a game. So like I said, I can't add too much more to that. Christian is an absolute monster and you know, I've always been a massive honey badger fan. So, you know, he could be in for a huge year this year.
He's been obviously a game record his entire career, but you know, this might be the year that he's in the defensive player of the year, you know, right at the very end type of conversation as opposed to you know, you know, you know, you know, you know you're just middle of the year and fade a little bit because someone else has a monster finish. He could be right there at the end of it this year. Wow. That's, that's off the lofty from what we've seen a little bit.
Chris Jones the last few years. I was actually kind of flipping through some of the defensive player of the year and I didn't even see him through the field. I was talking about Matthew Hunter better. Oh, uh, Tyrone Matthew.
I heard you say that Chris Jones is a monster, but then I went into Matthew's eyes. Okay. All right. So Tyrone Matthew.
Now that could definitely be a possibility. Yeah. This year most most certainly interested in that, but we'll talk maybe about that as well in the betting preview to wrap up the defense, the key rankings courtesy of SFA one final time front seven comes ranked in as the 18th unit in the league and the secondary, the 15th ranked unit. I believe both of those have plenty of opportunity to improve.
I just think it's a little bit tentative from what we've seen in the past. They got improving some key areas and like mag said, he's not all too super high on some of these key players. So there's some guys who are definitely going to have to step up and alleviate those question marks in order for them to improve upon those rankings. Last but certainly not least, wrapping up the entire team breakdown.
Let's talk quickly. Just give you the coaching staff. It's going to be the same coaching staff. There's really not much we need to say about these guys because we know what we're getting at this point.
Andy Reed coming in for year nine in Kansas City. Doesn't seem like it's been that long. No smokes. He's already been there nine years.
You got Eric B. Enemy coming back, joining him for his fourth season and then also Steve Spagnolo. He is. He's coming back for his fourth season.
I apologize. He's entering his third season. I apologize. So he's entering his third season there.
I always, you updated the agenda. I always put the number of where they're at and then I will say forward. That's why I said that wrong. So there you go.
There you have it. You know what you're getting from Andy Reed, the enemy and Spagnolo. I mentioned to you off the show. I really thought that the enemy was going to get a head coaching job this year.
I was kind of envisioning him going to the Jets, but obviously they picked up Bob Salah. Obviously he stayed at home in Arrowhead and that's what we're going to see him for at least 2021. So great coaching staff. Not really much else I need to say about that.
Outside of that, my friends, that puts a wrap on the full team breakdown, offense, defense and the coaching staff. You know them all. You know all of our thoughts. Well, we're getting let's get into the second segment of the day.
The entire schedule breakdown weeks one through 18. Now hope you haven't forgotten. We got 18 weeks now. 17 full games.
Well, let's get right into it. First things first. I will break it down week by week for you guys and we'll dive into our predictions from the division, the main eight non-division games and the three outside. So week one, man, I've talked about this a lot so far and I hate to say my opinions might be changing here.
Week one, they are in Arrowhead welcoming in the brown. We'll talk about that a little bit, but I think the brownies got a little bit better shot than I originally anticipated. Then they go into Baltimore play the Ravens in week two, got the Chargers in Arrowhead week three, then they go back on the road to Philly, then come back to Arrowhead in week five against Buffalo, two back to back games on the road in week six and seven against the football team and the Titans. Then they got two back to back games at home in week eight and nine against the Giants and Packers.
Then they got the Raiders in Las Vegas in week 10 and week 11. They come back home for the Cowboys. So they're home away, home away, home away to start. And then week 12 is their buy.
Come out of the buy, started at home in Arrowhead against the Broncos. Week 14, they welcome in the Raiders this time to Arrowhead. Then they go to SoFi stadium, play the Chargers in week 15, play the Steelers in Arrowhead in week 16. Then week 17, they go to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Don't know offhand what their stadium is called. I should know that. And then the Broncos, they go to Mile High to finish out their season in week 18. So that might be in my mind.
First thing that pops out of my head full, we dive into the predictions. Chiefs might all have the division, but wrapped up in that point in time in week 18. And Broncos, little sneaky in Mile High. So that's something for you to think about there.
But let's get right into it. Talking about division opponents. Why don't we just start things off? Our predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs 2021 record.
Start things off with the AFC West Division. In my mind, it is going to be incredibly hard for them not to go perfect once again. Or somewhat close to that. When it comes to the Raiders, in my mind right now, I'm going to say they go to an O.
The Chargers. I believe that they split with the Chargers. I believe they get the early season one and then go on the road in week 15. That's a Thursday night football game.
That could be a wild, wild Thursday night football game. So I'll say they'll split with the Chargers. And then the Broncos. I'm a little worried about the Broncos.
Obviously we saw them have a huge, huge start to their preseason defensively and offensively. So maybe not as much, but I don't think the Broncos can get it done against Patrick Mahomes. I'm almost at Patty again. Patrick Mahomes.
So I'll say to an O there again. So give me five and one for the Kansas City Chiefs and the AFC West. Okay. I also am right there with you on a split with the Chargers last year.
I mean, the Chargers, hey, they beat him in week 17 without Patrick Mahomes. So you can't really chalk that one up. But even week two in LA, it went to overtime. The Chiefs barely pulled one out.
So I think the Chargers and I'm very high in the Chargers even more. This year, I think the Chargers get one of those two games. I'm not going to pinpoint which of the two, but I do believe they will get one of them. So far as the Raiders, man, I think I'm right there with you on them getting both games, but this Raiders team at least offensively had some type of recipe for this Chiefs team beat him once took them.
They lost 35, the Chiefs beat him 35, 31, the second time. So, you know, I want to say the Chiefs get both games again this year or not again because they split last year, but I'm honestly leaning towards a split. And that doesn't mean I'm high on the Raiders or anything. I just think they might have the right offensive recipe to beat with them.
And then as far as the Broncos, you know, that week 18 game is just too hard to call because like you said, the Chiefs could have it wrapped up weeks, week 13 in Arrowhead off of by him, definitely giving that one to the Chiefs. But, you know, I'll say four and two, one way or another. I'll say four and two out of division, whether that's a split with the Raiders or a split with the Broncos because they get to rest in week 18. I'll say four and two.
All right. Four and two from you, five and one from me. So that's the AFC West. Now I do lean a little four and two, maybe potential split, but I would definitely go five and one more in that ballpark.
I just think, I don't know the more I think about it. Now I just think possibly flub something up week 18. They're looking past that and then that could push them to foreign too. So there's our thoughts.
Let's keep it moving. Man, oh man, that's interesting stuff. AFC North, they have obviously everybody played there for the first division out of their main division out of the West. So I say they get to win over the Bengals.
No problem. I think they get to win over the Steelers. No problem. And I've been beating the drums at the brownies.
They're not going to be able to get that week one lick back. And I think they do. I think they do. I know that game is played in Arrowhead.
But I think they do. I just liked what I saw from a lot. But honestly, the Chiefs lose in game one of the season in Arrowhead just doesn't make any sense at all to me. So I will pass on that.
I think that Baltimore can edge them out. I'll give them one in four or one in three, one way or another in the AFC North. Three and one. You mean?
Yes, three and one. I will also go three and one. I am going to give the win to the Browns. I am right there with you.
I'm going to push you over the edge because I think that Browns defense might have the right recipe. As far as the Ravens, I do like the Ravens. However, during these last three years with my homes and the March acts and the Chiefs have really just had the Ravens number. Not that they've dominated necessarily, but they just know how to beat him at the end of the game.
And I believe it's three and oh, last three years against this Ravens team. So I'm going to give that one to the Chiefs. And then not really much hesitation. I'll give the Chiefs the wins over the Steelers and Bengals.
The Steelers at home on a three day rest advantage for the Chiefs. So I'm definitely giving them the edge on that one. I would probably still like it regardless. And then it gets a bangles definitely.
So I'll go three and one with a split to start the season with the Brown the Ravens. All right. Well, it's honestly interesting that you slid on over to the brownies with me as well. The defense is what I honestly got to tell you what I was thinking there as well.
So one way or another, either the Ravens or the Browns. I don't know, but they're definitely going to be three and one. We'll talk about it here shortly in the betting preview. But we too, they're a pick them against Baltimore and they're favored by six and a half points against Cleveland.
So you be the judge moving right along NFC beast, East or East. Not sure what the hell we're going to see this year, but I do not believe that the Giants will touch the Chiefs. I do not believe that the Eagles will touch the Chiefs. So there you go to an O right off the bat.
The football team is an interesting defensive matchup to me. Now, I think they have plenty of success, but that game is played in Washington off of a Sunday night football game. So could potentially even be looking past that game to play the Titans in Tennessee once again. I'm not too certain, but that one leaves a little bit of a question mark in my mind, but I'll give him the win nonetheless.
And then also the Cowboys kind of leave a little bit of a question mark. I know the defense might be questionable, but man, that game could very well in 38, 35, one flip of the coin. And I think that's if Dak stays healthy, I think that's going to be the story of the entire Cowboys offense this year. So one way or another, they either lose to the boys or lose to the football team.
Once again, I'll go three and one in the NFC each. I think we're right in line, man. I want to say four. No, but kind of like you said, Washington's defense.
I am a huge, huge supporter of them this year. I want to edge it to the Chiefs, but then again, you know, I'm echoing almost exactly what you're saying. So I want to dive into it. The Giants game and Arrowhead on Monday night is going to just be an absolute massacre on live television.
So I feel bad for Giants fans a week. No, it's not. And then week four going into Philly. I think they smoke the Eagles too.
So I will say three and one one. One way or another, right with you either the skis, excuse me, either the football team or the Cowboys. Get that win. I see what you're almost there.
I see what you're almost there. That means that three remain the bills, the Titans and the Packers. The bills is the hardest game for them. Well, it's actually right in line with Baltimore, the hardest games on their schedule.
I rule that's in Arrowhead. That's going to be one of the most important early season games. They're going to need to get that win. All say that they get that W just right off the bat and I just don't feel really super duper safe about it.
They're only four and a half point favorites. Again, we'll talk about that here in a bit, but I mean, that could very well be a shootout. And then it'll feel goal one way or another once again. So I'll give them that game.
The Titans, I'll give them that one as well. And then the Packers, I got to give them that one as well. The Packers just haven't had success against the Chiefs. I mean, it just hasn't been able to get the dubs when they needed it.
So leaning, I'll go three and oh, and the remaining three outside because they need them. Okay, I am going to give the Chiefs to win over the Bills. You know, last year, Chiefs played him once regular season, once in the playoffs did not have too many problems with them. I think it'll be closer.
I think I really like the Bills. I think that Browns game is the toughest matchup on the schedule. Either the Browns or the Packers, honestly, and obviously I'm biased in that one. I just think they have the right matchup that Chiefs do for the Ravens and Bills.
So I will give them the win over the Bills. I will also give them the win over Tennessee. I think the Chiefs have the right defensive match ups, excuse me, for the Titans. I mean, the Packers and Chiefs haven't played too much lately.
So I'm not two years ago. It was without homes and Packers won. So it's tough to draw conclusions on that one. It's impossible for me to stay unbiased on that game.
It is just absolutely impossible. But since there's three very tough games, I will say two in one way or another, whether it's the Bills, Titans, or Pac, but I'm leaning on being the Pac. Obviously, I'm going to buy us on that one. For sure.
I probably could have taken those words right out of your mouth. I thought that I thought off the top of my head that the Chiefs have played more recently than that. Not a concession. All right.
For sure. Well, then never mind my statement there. Maybe a little bit more of a shootout. The old dog.
I think it's going to be a game of hell. That's what I think. So too. That's it.
I have no feelings whatsoever. I actually have shitty feelings for the Packers. Screw them and everything. They're about coming into 2021 for my Bears in the NFC North, but my unbiased NFL analyst hat.
Yeah, I think that's going to be a shootout in half. So my attitude to one for me, but I'm going to stick three. You know, if you're with me, you're at 14 and three. If you're with mags started off in the AFC West, you are at 13 and four.
So either way that creates a little bit of dilemma for us because we'll talk about it shortly in the betting preview. The wind total right now is set at 12 and a half wins. So I think I've mapped out five losses. Sorry.
You mapped out five losses. What did two four and two three and one three and one. Oh, you went to a one. I bought it.
So yeah, 12 and five. Any opportunity you get got to get me corrected. Appreciate it. 12 and five.
So either way, well, then that puts you in even more of a dilemma if you are with mags because the wind total is at 12 and a half. So we'll talk about that. That went total here in just a minute of the betting preview. We obviously have plenty to discuss and I'm honestly not in love with my 14 and three predictions to tell you the truth either.
So let's keep it rocking a roll and put a cap on top of the schedule breakdown here. Last but certainly not least, courtesy of the guys over at SFA, the rest and prep inequalities. Now the Chiefs, as if they needed any type of advantage whatsoever, they got it in this department. They only play two opponents that have over a week to prepare for them and play four opponents that have less than a week to prepare for them.
So yachty in that department. Only play one time where they have a rest disadvantage and play five times where they have a rest advantage. Yachty once again. And they only play one short week road game and only play one game off of a road Sunday night or Monday night football.
So not terrible there. That's probably their worst inequality, but across the board. It looks very simple from as far as being prepared to have an arrest advantage, rest disadvantage. They look to be in good shape.
And as I said, as if they needed one more advantage, the Chiefs got it in that department once again. So there you go. There you have it. Everything in our opinions.
Just to put a cap on it compared to 2020 going to be a much easier schedule across the board. As if last year was even harder at all. The NFC South was a lot better. AFC East obviously had some fighting teams grabbing teams in there and then they played the Ravens and the Texans.
So I think it's going to be just a little bit easier for him this year, especially with the improvements, but it's definitely going to be some dog on shootouts. There is no question about that in my mind. So there you go. There you have last but certainly not least.
Actually, there's nothing remaining in regards to the schedule. Let's get it into the third segment of today's show the entire betting preview. As always, I will get things kicked off here. We got to talk about 2020 and how they did overall against some key numbers and what we might think we see from them in 2021.
Overall, the Kansas City Chiefs against the spread against the number in 2020. They were 6 and 10 ATS and 14 and 2 straight up. So a little bit of something for you to think about there. Before I get into that, they were favored by an average line of 7 and a half.
They're not covering those lines. Got a little bit less respect from the books. They're now only favored by 6.4 points in 2021. However, they are favored in 16.
Out of their 17 games and then the one pick them in week two against Baltimore. Now back to that 2020 ATS record. Once again, 6 and 10 ATS and 14 and 12 straight up. So had some problems covering those big spreads and they were in a lot of shootouts.
And for us, what we're thinking, there are a lot of shootouts once again as a favorite. They were 5 and 9 ATS and as a dog, they were 1 and 1 ATS at home in error head three and 5 ATS, but 6 and 2 straight up as a home favorite three and four and as a home pooch, 0 and 1 on the road. They were also three and 5 against the number but 8 and 0 straight up to and 5 as a road favorite. And 1 and 0 as a road dog.
So overall, not very good against the number and we'll talk about it here in the weekly lines portion, but I also think that this could be the same story here in 2021. I think there's going to be a lot of shootouts in the books. Can't price the games at 3 and 4. They just can't do it.
Everybody and their dogs would be taking the chief at that point. So they do it for a reason. And you know, the Chiefs probably have a very successful year. But as far as against the number goes, I'm not too certain that they have that much success in 2021.
But we'll talk about it. That's going to be interesting. If I'm remembering correctly and looking at their schedule, I think the end of their season second half is when they really fell off a cliff as far as ATS. I believe they started off like 5 and 2 or 6 and 2 or something like that because their last eight games, whether they won seven of eight of them, but even those seven wins were all by one score or even 1.2 points.
So I, you know, not disagreeing with that. It's going to be the same because I think it could be. But it was just an interesting story last year when the offensive line went down. They started having those closer games.
The last week 17 obviously was without my homes. But you know, I think we're going to see a lot of the same, but there still might be some spots where they might blow some of these teams out. I would have to agree with you and just put some back in behind your words there. I had them right in front of me.
They went six and two ATS in the first eight games. They chased out the season going two and nine ATS their last 11, including playoffs as well. So definitely some validity to that. Obviously, the injuries played a lot of factor in them covering those numbers, but still think they're going to be in some shootouts at some of those bigger numbers might be hard for them to cover once again.
So far as game totals from 2020 go, they had an average line of 51.6 and wouldn't you know it coming into 2021? They once again have an average line of 51.6. So if that tells you anything, kind of the backup, what I'm saying, I think it's going to be some more shootouts, high-squareing affairs once again this year. As far as their over-under record, however, though, not much you can draw from it.
The Chiefs were 7, 7 and 2 over-under on the 2020 season, four and three and one to the over at home, four, three and one. I'm sorry, let me restart. Four, three and one to the under at home and four, three and one to the over on the road. As a favorite, this does include playoffs.
They were nine and eight to the under. And as a dog, they were one and one straight up over-under. So across the board, nothing you can really draw out of that. Nothing you can really say.
And it's going to come down once again this year, who that opponent is. Is that opponent going to be able to score enough against them to push that total way over, be those 30 to 30 games? Or is it going to be a 40 to nothing Chiefs blowout? It's really going to depend.
And it's going to be a very precise spot if you're going to want to play game totals once again here for the Chiefs in 2021. That all being said, you love a teaser. I love a teaser. He loves a teaser.
We all wake up on Sunday mornings looking who we can add to a teaser. And I tell you what, the Kansas City Chiefs might just continue to be one of those teams. Six, seven and 10 point teasers, 11 and five, 11 and five and 14 and two respectively. So as I always say, you're trying to find that extra leg for that 10 point teaser and you want to get it right over to the plus odds, the Chiefs look to be that team.
You probably should target. That all being said, and those are for 2020. Let's move into 2021. Come back from the past.
Dive in to the future. 2021 is looking pretty similar across the board from a weekly line standpoint. Let me just those out for you guys once again. And then I'll tell you some key numbers as I go through that are jumping out for you.
And then we'll just keep rocking and rolling. Sorry, told you they're favored by six and a half points in Arrowhead week one against the grounds. It is a pick them in week two in Baltimore. It's the Ravens coming as seven and a half point favorites against the Chargers in Arrowhead week three eight point favorites against the Eagles week four four and a half point favorites against Buffalo and week five six and a half point favorites against Washington football team in six and then seven, eight and nine.
They are all favored once again, four and a half points against Tennessee, ten points against the Giants and seven points against the Packers. Then 10 and 11 right before their by favored once again, both by seven and a half points against Dallas or yes, Dallas and the Raiders and they have their by week, week 12 already told you about that week 13 come out of that to play the Broncos as nine and a half point favorites, 10 and a half point favorites, then against the Raiders in Arrowhead six and a half against the Chargers in week 15 and then close out the season all favored against 16, 17, 18, eight and a half points against the Steelers seven and a half against the Bengals and three against the Broncos. Excuse me. Now, in my mind, there's not many that I'm interested in taking probably the pick them against Baltimore.
I would take the points with Cleveland. I would probably take the points with the Chargers both times. I like being being taken the dogs side. So I would take their points.
I would take the plus seven and a half and the plus six and a half of the Chargers. I'm not afraid to take the seven and a half with Dallas. All back Dallas. I would you talked about it.
The Raiders just appear to be this weird bad offensive matchup and sometimes defensive matchup for the Chiefs. I would honestly take the 10 and a half in Arrowhead and seven and a half in a legion. Give me both of those. I just think that these touchdown spreads, especially with what we know.
They didn't lose anybody. All they signed patty my home to the $500 million daily. He's a richest quarterback in the league. They're going to absolutely destroy it.
There's no way that they don't beat every team by 14 points. They went 14 and two last year. They're all healthy. You said it all.
They're back to healthy. Now, into the year, you can scrub all of that. A T S numbers. That was all because the line healthy weren't able to put up a bunch of points.
I don't know. I think you could come up with a lot of reasons as to why they cover these numbers. Yeah, but I just think at the end of the day it looms too large. My mind.
They're just too dog on big for what I think this season is going to play out as a game. It's a lot, a lot, a lot of shootouts because it's so hard to remain dominant in the NFL. I don't care if you keep around everybody. Teams are going to adjust most namely your division and your division is going to bring in many defensive players.
Why do you think the Denver Broncos brought in Kyle Fuller drafted Patrick Sirtain just so they could look pretty on the outsides? No, they're to put pressure on those wide receivers when they have to freak and play the cheese. These teams are building their defenses now. So I think this could be a bit of a struggle plus season for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Whatever the hell struggling is for the Chiefs. For their standards is the exact way to put it. So that's why I'm at kind of some of the things jumping off the board. Anything jumping off the board of you, man?
Yeah, I kind of echo a lot, especially a lot of the teams that you mentioned specifically the couple that I will absolutely have, you know, especially if these teams play out to how they, I think they will early on in the season. I have no fear taking the Chiefs against the Eagles or Giants at least right now. Like I said, if either those teams look a little different than I expect the first few weeks, I might have different feelings. But I'm kind of with you, man.