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We hope you enjoy. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening ladies and gentlemen, degenerates, gamblers, New Orleans Saints fans, fans of the NFL Shield, NFL football players, fantasy football players, anybody I might have left out for and wide. Welcome in to episode number one, 11 of the talking the line podcast. And as always, thank you so much for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with the crew on this beautiful August 26th, 2021.
Once again, thank you for stopping back by had a little bit of technical difficulties, but we're back rockin' and rolling here as always. I got to do the usual, you know the drill if you haven't already, make sure you smash that subscribe button on whatever platform you are currently ingesting the talking the line podcast on. If you are watching live on YouTube, you might as well hit that notification bell as well, so you never miss the start of a live show located right over there. But if you are listening to the audio version on your favorite podcast directory, make sure you hit that subscribe button there as well if you haven't already.
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However, and whenever you please ladies and gentlemen, beautiful people, everyone in between that I might have left out starting the show. Welcome in to episode 1111 again. I am your humble host Colton, co 45, Soroka. And before we go anywhere, thank you so much for stopping back by had a little bit of technical difficulty starting off the day.
Each year does appear right now that everything is in good working order. Everything is up to speed as it would appear. You know, sometimes got to put the old producer head on, but it's all about battling that adversity and we're unafraid of that here at the turn line podcast. So you might have heard a little voice there in the background.
If you're watching live or you're watching on YouTube, you see him. So it's time to bring that man on in the co host of the talk the line podcast was so kind to keep the show floating as I was trying to get everything figured on out outside of that a young man who's white socks fandom runs thicker than blood right alongside his green Bay Packers fandom in a few short two weeks he will be cheering them on on Sunday. I suggest you do not hit him up in any form or fashion as he will be in disposed. Ladies and gentlemen, the man, the man, the degenerate gambling legend himself, Mr.
Riley, our Max Magneson. Bartir, how you doing over there today, pal? My man, I am doing just spectacular spectacular aside from my fun one words, but you know, nonetheless, I mentioned it earlier on the first try. If you heard me, it is a beautiful day in the windy city.
No filibuster in this time around because we are rocking and rolling. I'm ready to dive into this New Orleans Saints team playing my Packers in week one. So you know, I've, you know, kind of a little bit of an interest in diving into this team a little bit further today. I just bite that guy diving in about as deep as we dove in every single week.
Nonetheless, I'm ready to get rocking and rolling on some James Winston, Taysom Hill, and whoever else is involved in this team here partner. Absolutely. I had to just double check everything. It looks like we're good to go.
I am now 100% focused as the host of your show. Nothing else I should worry about here. It looks like everything's clipping right along. But yes, partner, we have a shitload to discuss here today.
There's a lot of injuries happening in New Orleans. There's a lot of guys that retired or left town. There's a lot of question marks as per usual, but with the Saints, this might be one of the teams that has the most question marks that we covered at least as far as who's starting and what are we actually going to see here in 2021. But if you wanted to know all of that, you came to the right place because we'll be answering all those questions.
We'll be breaking down everything offensively, defensively. We'll be talking about the coaching staff. We'll also dive into their schedule, give you our predictions. We'll go through a full season betting preview.
We'll dive a week by week in 2021, and then we'll also talk some future side bets you should be targeting ahead of the season. And then we'll close things out with our fourth and final segment, the start stash or pass segment, our best fantasy advice. If you couldn't deduct that, we are fantasy lovers at the end of the day. We have been playing for the better part of the decade, I would say.
So definitely found a little bit of value here, but it's going to take fine in Diamond and the rough and hope a few of these guys pop off. But there's definitely some brand names. Oh, goodness gracious. Yes.
Sorry. However, we'll save all of that for the fourth and final segment of the day. But for now, before we bring up the team of the day, you already got it in hand part. Ready for it.
Quick little cheers to you. You're sipping on the Joe this morning. Cheers to you out there. Perfect mix this morning.
Once again, a little witch's brew, a little home cooking, little colds cooking. It is perfect mix, my man. Mm-hmm. It's so bad, boy.
Oh, yeah. All right. Well, here we go, ladies and gentlemen. It is time to rock and roll once again, you know, battle in some adversity here at the TTL problem whatsoever.
It's time to get into the show today. Finally, officially a little bit behind schedule. So we're going to go a little bit faster than usual, keep it moving through the first two segments of the day for today's team of the day, the New Orleans Saints. First segment of the day up on tap, ready to rock and roll the full team breakdown for the New Orleans Saints.
As always, we'll kick things off offensively, jump over to the defensive side of the ball and then talk a little bit about the coaching staff. I'll kick things off offensively with the key losses going here into 2021. They let a good handful of guys go and then we had one big name retire. The name we'll all know about Drew Brees quarterback.
He is gone, done with the NFL for good and it does not look like he will ever come back. Some quarterbacks might take a little break for a year or two and then maybe make a run back with another team. Doesn't look like that's going to happen with Drew. Manuel Sanders, wide receiver.
He is at a town with Jay Kumaro as well. They both went to the Bills. Three more receivers left to New Orleans this year. Austin Carr, Benny Fowler and Justin Hardy.
They let go two tight ends, Jared Cook and Josh Hill. We talked a little bit about Jared Cook in Los Angeles and Chargers this year. Barry and arrested to see what he does. Cole Wick also a tight end.
So they did let three tight ends go. So a little bit of depth loss there. Michael Burton, fullback and then Nick Easton center. Is all the fellas that they let go on the offensive side of the ball.
Few names you can really write home about Drew Brees, Emmanuel Sanders and what we've seen from Jay Kumaro. I know you hate that name now, especially being a Packers fan. But with all that being said, that is the key offensive losses. Barter, would you be so kind as to indulge us?
What's up with the key offensive edition here for the Saints? Most definitely nothing too crazy here and not too much to write home at all about out of free agency. They did fill the tight end depth a little bit. They picked up Nick Vanet.
He looks like he's going to be the number two tight end here for the Saints. That's about it for free agency and trades. As far as the draft go, three players on offense. Nobody before the fourth round.
They picked up Ian Book, quarterback out of Notre Dame. If you've been a college football fan, you know that name. He looks like he could be the third or fourth quarterback option out of this room. Six round off of the tackle land in Youngout, Kentucky and then seventh round, Kawan Baker, South Alabama.
So really the only guy that appears to be a big contributor and I shouldn't even say big contributor is Nick Vanet at that number two tight end spot partner. I would have to agree with you there. Now, we'll definitely talk about what we think about some of those guys and who we think is contributing and some of their outlooks in 2021 offensively. But before we do, let's quickly talk about 2020 here.
Some of the key stats as far as offense goes for the Saints last year. Obviously it's going to look a little bit different. So I have to talk a little bit about what we expect here. The average 5.7 yards per play rush the ball on 46.95% of their plays and pass on 53.05% of their plays.
Completion percentage across the board, 70.13%. Obviously majority of that being drew breeze. Third down conversion, 46.61% and red zone scoring at 71.62%. So right off the bat, you see the red zone scoring.
Obviously, that's probably due for a little bit of aggression, especially with Drew Brees leaving town. The third down conversion was already not the greatest. So I don't know necessarily that it gets any better, especially with this unit. I have a lot of concerns, a lot of question marks, but let's talk about this projected starting line up before we talk about any of those question marks.
As far as it looks right now, there's a lot of, I keep saying it, but there's a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball who was going to be starting what's going to be happening. So I'll talk about that as I go through here. Offensive line wise, they look to be in pretty good shape. Ryan Ramchik on right tackle, right guard, Stasar Ruiz, center, Eric McCoy, left guard, Andrew's Pete, and then the left tackle, Tehran Armstead.
One of the better offensive lines in the leagues. And I think with all of those names, they continue to do so once again. Now as far as the tied in position goes, little bit of shaking this year. Adam Troutman had a, what looked to be a severe injury in the preseason in preseason week one was doing some reading up on it.
It does appear that he missed a major injury, but he probably won't be available for week one of the regular season. So then that opens up the door to a bunch of guys who have, we have absolutely no idea. Joanne Johnson, Garrett Griffin, Dylan Sonar, Nick Vanette, which could possibly come in and fill in and then Ethan Wolf. Say out of those names, it would probably be Nick Vanette, especially with them going and picking him up in free agency.
I think that would be the guy who would slot in, but they really put all their chips in the pile on Troutman this year. So they need him back bad. Wide receiver room, there is a lot of worry there. Obviously Michael Thomas being out, we don't really know when exactly, he's going to be back.
So then that leaves you, Trequann Smith in the slot. Deontae Harris opposite of Michael Thomas, but now does he become wide receiver one. Then you have Marquez Callaway, who's been showing out in the preseason. I think he could slot in as a wide receiver one, and I think that's what he's trying to do.
And then the lone wide receiver, the Saints took in the draft. Go on Baker. He's behind them. So with the injury to Thomas could be seeing work sooner rather than later.
They do have other guys on the depth chart, but that looks like what it'll be right now as far as the guys will use immediately. They obviously want to tend to use go on Baker right off the bat, but it looks like they've got themselves where Michael Thomas got them into a situation where they're probably going to have to. And then as far as the rest of the skill positions go running back to you, obviously no AK Avin Kamara coming in again. The Tavius Murray back and him up.
The Tavius Murray not all the way out yet. He's right at 31, 32 right now. So he's getting up there, but he's still able to produce be a very, very top tier side option behind Kamara. And then the quarterbacks.
We had Ole famous, James Winston lighted up in preseason week two and then Taysom Hill did decent work in preseason week one. In my opinion, from what we've seen so far, and I think with Sean Payton saying, I'm not going to name a starter yet, I think he was surprised how good James looked in week two and I honestly was as well. So I think that James is going to end up getting to start here week one. And I think he has the capability to do some things.
I mean, if he was hitting the receivers who are with a projected third fourth guys on the depth chart in the preseason, those guys are going to be the starters in the regular season. So definitely something to think about there. That is kind of all of my opinions, kind of the holes exactly what's going to happen. I know you can elaborate a little bit deeper.
What are you feeling here offensively for the Saints in 2021? Yeah, very similar to you partner. I truly do think James Winston is going to get that start. I think the ceiling with him is just a little bit higher, much higher honestly if he's playing well than Taysom Hill's is.
And contrary to what we saw in Tampa Bay, I think some of his efficiency will improve with Sean Payton as his play caller. And not to mention, call me crazy, but I'm not saying it's going to be having him as an elite quarterback. Because I actually surgically fixed. I do think that's nothing, man.
I truly don't because you know, you saw him. He was literally they don't call him James. They didn't call him James Swintz for nothing. He was a squinting machine.
And now that appears to be gone. So call me crazy, but I don't think that's nothing. But as you mentioned, I think the receiver room is the clear biggest question mark here. Because last year they kind of overcame it in certain times, but they really didn't have a very healthy receiver room throughout the entire year.
The couple of games that they did, they looked very solid. Now, manual Sanders is out of town. Michael Thomas, as you mentioned, who knows what's going to happen with him this year. So a lot of the pressure falls on these other receivers.
And Marquez Callaway picked up some of that slack in a couple of games last year. So if he's healthy, I like his possibility of potential here. But nonetheless, if Michael Thomas has gone for even half the season, I worry about this receiver room. I think the depth of it is going to look really, really ugly.
And then trotman himself, I think if he is coming back healthy, as you mentioned, they put a lot of chips down on him. So if he is healthy, I have some optimism for him, but the health is a concern. So I am really, really concerned about where, whether it's James Orte's Tastem Hill, I do think it's going to be James. I think I am a little concerned about who he's going to be throwing to and where the targets are going to go to this year.
Because offensive line of running back, those are two of the better units in the entire league. So there's plenty of question marks. Yeah, absolutely. I echo that statement 150%.
You don't have to worry at all about the offensive line and you don't have to worry at all about the running back. It was a big problem for them last year, the health of their wide receiver room. You mentioned it. And now the guys who were actually able to produce, they shipped out of town and they're depending on a bunch of guys who we don't really know if they can produce or not.
They've shown flashes here or there. The jury's really out if they're going to be able to consistently produce through the course of the season while Michael Thomas is out. So that's going to be huge. And then yeah, James Winston looks like a fixed quarterback, but can he sustain it over the course of the season?
We'll obviously talk about that more in depth once we get some into the betting preview, the presidential prediction stuff like that. But that's our overall offensive outlook for the Saints this season now before we move on into the defense. Right quick. Let's talk about the key rankings courtesy guys over to SFA quarterback room comes in ranked as the 24th unit in the league.
So not much faith coming in for Mr. Winston or Mr. Hill. The offensive line comes in ranked as the second unit in the league.
So definitely backs up what we're saying about that online. And then also the running backs third ranked unit in the league. If Latavius Murray has a better than average season, they could be number one and no question in my mind, just because of the sheer three down threat of AK, not only from rushing perspective, but also a pass catching perspective. And then the receivers pretty much in agreement with you and me as well, 22nd ranked unit in the league.
And I think they could get closer to 25, 26. I really don't anticipate all too many of the guys in this room really producing much. I love Marcus Callaway. I think he's been really good, really dominant so far.
And I think he probably might be worth a look at fantasy. We'll talk about that. And I think he definitely is one of the key pieces for their offensive success this year. But obviously not a wide receiver one.
So do you want to hang all your eggs in that basket, if you will. But just something to think about. We'll talk about it more in depth once we get into start, stash your pass and all of that good stuff. We're only about 12 minutes over schedule here.
So nothing too bad. We're usually at. Into the defensive side of the ball. First things first partner.
Why don't you hit us with it? The key defensive loss is going into 2021. All right. So this was a very solid, very good unit last few years.
They did lose a few pieces this year, though. Not any of their major contributors, but a few guys that played some key roles. Alex Anzaloni, linebacker played 16 games, spent the last four years in New Orleans. He is out of town.
Genoris Jenkins played 13 games at the cornerback position. He is out of town. Malcolm Brown, interior defensive line 13 games. Sheldon Rankin's also on the interior.
He played 12 games. The biggest one partner though, Trey Hendrickson off the edge. 15 games had 13 and a half sacks last year for this team. That is a massive loss to Phil.
He is in Cincinnati now. And then the other last one here is DJ Swearinger playing 11 games. But Hendrickson by far the biggest loss here. The other guys are a little bit of some depth pieces, but 13 and a half sacks is going to be tough to make up for this year partner.
It definitely is. And I don't necessarily know that they were able to backfill enough to be able to get that done or fill that void. But we'll certainly see. They brought in to know Hossack Nahn off the edge $2.9 million, $2.29 million deal.
So we'll see if he's able to fill in that void. They also brought back. We didn't know if it was for sure going to happen to not be a quine Alexander linebacker. So now it looks like that quine Alexander de Merio Davis combination will once again be in attack for 2021.
And then as far as the draft goes, they picked up Peyton Turner defensive end out of Houston. So once again, maybe avoid filler there. Pete Warner, linebacker out of Ohio State who could see some time on the field sooner rather than later. And then Paulson Adebo, who is a defensive back out of Stanford who also could see the field rather soon besides rather later.
That came out very well. Keep it right along. As far as the defense goes, we'll talk about the projected starters here. It's actually kind of up in the air still the projected starters.
But as far as 2020 goes, they rust or they allowed opponents to average 5.0 yards per play. A bonus completion percentage was at 59.7% across the board. But they did play a little bit of a week schedule last year. A bonus third down conversion percent was at 37.61.
So again, kind of plays into that schedule. And then in the red zone, the opponent scored at 65.52%. So compared to all those numbers, a big disparity in the red zone that I think they're going to have to correct here in 2021. I believe they have the guys to do it.
They have a lot of top tier names. But I don't know if just having top tier names is really going to be the best thing. And if they're really going to have the cohesion, they need to put up the numbers. They need to win some games and keep the Saints in it because I don't know how many points the offense is going to put up even though they look spectacular against the Jackwire second string last week.
That all being said, the Saints defense projected into 2021. You have Cam Jordan on the left end and then Marcus Davenport on the right end. Obviously Marcus Davenport might be rotated in there with somebody who knows exactly what that depth will be. But as far as it goes, he should be the week one starter.
Then you have Shy Tuttle and David Onyamada in the middle. Those guys are locked down starters. Might have a few depth pieces behind them to potentially add. But for now, they're locked in and then just told you to Mario Davis and Gwen Alexander look to be the two linebackers rounding out the front seven.
But Pete Warner coming in out of Ohio State, a very, very lackluster in coverage, but a blitzer and a half. They can groom up his coverage, which Sean Payton has been able to just groom rookie players year in and year out. So I think they have no problem and he finds some serious value on this defense. Now as far as the secondary, a little bit worrisome to me.
They have Marshall and Lattimore on one side in the slot next to him, CJ Gardner Johnson. And then it was projected to be Patrick Robinson, but Patrick Robinson retires before the season starts. So now is it going to be Paulson, Odebo? Is it going to be?
They have a few other options. Hey, Crawley. It's really going to be up here who's going to exactly take that spot. And then in the deep secondary, they have Marcus Williams and Malcolm Jenkins.
Obviously two names that have been in the league for a while. Very good deep backfield tandem. Might be one of the shining spots of this secondary. However, both those guys are getting up in years as well.
So Saints are kind of running into this problem where their teams getting real old, real fast, and they had two guys retire in one year. You hate to see that. I mean, for their sake, I hope they can put it together in or on the defensive side of the ball for my sake as a Bears fan for NFC fans. I hope they have no chance whatsoever.
But I don't expect a whole lot out of this defense. I actually am going to temper my expectations a little bit from what we've seen over the course of the last few seasons just because of what I said, how to kind of kick things off there. They have a lot of top tier talent in names, but I don't know how well they actually put that together here in 2021. And it leaves a lot of, I've said it a lot today.
It leaves a lot of question marks in my mind. So I'm not super high on a part of where you're feeling for the 2021 Saints defense. Okay. I am sounds like I'm a little bit higher on than you are having said that I am still thinking that they regress compared to what they have in the last few years, whether it's age, like you said, or losing some of that depth, like I mentioned in Trey hundreds and then it's 13 and a half sacks.
So I do still think they're going to be a top half defense. I guess I don't know where you slot them as far as you know, that would be where I'd say yeah. For sure. Right.
Exactly. So I think they're going to be closer to the top 10 range in my opinion. Yeah. And then as far as Pete Werner, Quant Alexander, I think Pete Werner is going to learn a lot this year.
It seems to me that they must have brought Quant Alexander back because they're still a little skeptical as far as what Werner can bring to them if he were the everyday starter or every snap starter. So I think that's a big reason why they brought Quant Alexander back in. But aside from that, kind of as you said, I think there'll be a little bit of aggression while they'll still show some flashes, whether it's their individual players or their defense as a whole is being, I guess, vintage Saints defense over the last few years. But for the most part, I guess I echo a lot of your statements partner and I think we do see some, yeah, I don't want to say serious regression, but definitely some regression on the less.
Definitely a little bit nonetheless. I think that's the perfect way to put it, especially from what we've seen from the Saints defense here over here, probably over the last five to maybe 10 years, maybe who knows, either way, as far as the key rankings from the guys over at SFA goes wrapping up the defensive side of the ball, they're pretty high on this defense. I think it's pretty accurate. They could definitely improve upon it, but they could also definitely regress from these numbers.
Front seven comes in ranked as the 11th best unit in the league and the secondary is ranked as the 14th best unit in the league. Obviously that rating was put out with Patrick Robinson in the line up. So that might have ticked way up to right around the 2025 mark. We'll have to see, could you restel out?
We don't know who's exactly going to get the starter exactly the production we see from this defense, but both me and Mags are definitely predicting we see a little bit of regression nonetheless. That all being said, let's quickly touch on the coaching staff pretty much the exact coaching staff has been as if you've been watching the Saints for the last decade, you got Sean Payton coming in here for his 16th official season as the Saints head coach. One of the only coaches to rival, if you will, yesterday's coach of the day, Bill Belichick. When you actually put that on paper, it seems crazy that it's only a six year difference.
It does seem kind of crazy that it is that, but either way, now you know that also joining him for his 13th official season as offensive coordinator of the Saints Pete Carmichael. We'll see what he can do with a brand new set of quarterback. Well, not necessarily take some Hill or James Winston, but they haven't necessarily been the starter for Pete yet. So he's going to have to work his magic.
And so is Sean Payton. Sean Payton is going to have to have a coaching year and a half if he wants to have any success at all in 2021. And then the defensive coordinator coming in seventh official year, Dennis Allen. This coaching staff is obviously very strong.
Sean Payton comes in ranked as the fourth coach in the league for the guys over at SFA. So definitely worthy of that ranking. You look back into 2020 and what he was able to do with all the injuries and loss of key pieces and superstars, if you will, and they still had a decent season and were able to beat the Bears in the wildcard round and then lose to the Bucks in the playoffs. So everybody thought they were going to beat the Bucks as they beat them twice during the regular season, but the Bucks and Tampa Tom turned it on when it really mattered.
Either way, that'll be instead. Sean Payton is going to have to coach identically to that if not, notch that up about five levels with the lack of depth, the huge amount of injuries and the lack of superstar talent on this team now with some of those injuries. So I think they struggled just a bit here, but I think this coaching staff is able to work a little magic, use their puppet strings, if you will, and get these guys whipped into shape and at least have a reasonable record. I actually personally think Sean Payton is number two behind Bill Belichick in my own personal opinion as well as coaching rankings.
Yeah. All right. Well, I would be pretty dog on close up there just because of how well he did coach last year. He really solidified that.
Yeah. I mean, it was insane to see what he did. So obviously he's going to need to do it again. But when you look at it coming in for his 16th season, he's right rival and Bill Belichick.
I mean, he's obviously been with the Saints that long for a reason. He's going to be able to get something done. So that does it everything for the entire team breakdown. You know, offense, you know, defense.
Well, maybe a little bit. There's still some question marks. We don't even know who the heck is going to be starting some of those spots. And now you know the coaching staff.
Let's keep the show. Steven on down the tracks today. My friends after just a little bit of bump in the road. Now we're just cruising set cruise control about 75 miles an hour going down wide open four lane highway at this point in time, baby.
So get into the seven. How about 175? Get into the second segment of the day with the Saints full schedule breakdown. Now as always, we won't go week by week, but I will tell you that there by week is in week six.
We will go through the full season week by week betting. Let me restart that. We'll go through the full betting lines week by week once we get into the full season preview. So if you really want to know who they're playing week by week, all that jazz, we'll let you know all that right now in the schedule breakdown.
We're just going to give you our full predictions, everything for 2021. First things first, we're going to start it where we always do. And ladies and gentlemen, that is in the division, the NFC South. Now the NFC South doesn't look as strong as it once did by any means.
And we have not been high on the Saints at all because we have covered the Panthers and we have covered the Falcons and we're right around the corner from covering the bunk and ears. That all being said, I do believe that Sean Payton finds a way to out coach Arthur Smith in both games. I believe it can happen. Arthur Smith, obviously going into the season is going to have more of the talent.
It already looks like he's going to have more of the talent. But I think Sean Payton finds a way to out coach him and he gets both games against the Falcons. The Panthers are very interesting to me. You had the last season schedule pull up.
Did they split with the Panthers last year? Or did they get in both the last game as a week 17? I don't know. I didn't know what to make of that.
I think it's a week seven game was a 27 24 victory. So very, very tight game. Okay. So I could see him getting both again against the Panthers.
I just don't know what we expect from Darnold. That's the biggest thing in my mind, especially against that defense. And then I think the Bucks are going to be way too much for him this year and they're not going to get either one from him. So it doesn't feel right.
Just with all the question marks and everything, I feel like they could flub up once or maybe even twice against the Panthers or the Falcons. I just feel like it could happen. But right off the top of my dome, I'm going to give them four and two coming out of the NFC South this year. Okay.
I'm going a little bit different, but still four and two. I am going much like you a clean sweep of the Falcons. Week 18 isn't Atlanta. Those games in Atlanta, even when the Saints are out matching them are still pretty damn close.
But week 18, I could see that being a big game for the Saints and not so much for the Falcons. So I'll give that two wins there for the Saints. And then I'm going to split with both of the other two teams. I think, you know, they found some magic.
Both games, they played against the Bucks. I think they figured out one of the two. I'm not going to say which one, but I will say a split there. And I'm saying to split against the Panthers as well.
I think week two, especially, especially because I think as the season goes on, they'll figure out some of those injuries and they'll kind of iron themselves out and be looking solid as they get into the season. But the first few weeks, week two, they play Carolina in Carolina and on the road, I think the Carolina Panthers get that one. So give me a clean four and two, just a little bit different than you had at the partner. So you think the Carolina Panthers get that one, huh?
Especially with them, the Saints play in the Patriots, right? The very next week and week three. So you're thinking a little bit of a look beyond game for the Panthers. They're the Saints slip up and the Panthers get the job done.
I just think they're going to be a little slow coming out of the gates to start the season Saints. So either way, we're both sticking four and two, like your opinion there as well. I could definitely see that happening. Let's keep it moving.
Keep it Grooving. The eight main non-division games outside of the NFC South for the Saints this year. They obviously got the AFC East and the NFC East. We don't really know what they'll be either.
I love it. The AFC East, we have the Bills, the Dolphins, the Pats, and the Jets. You know the drill. I say they get the win over the Jets, but the Jets just start to impress me more and more day by day.
And I would not doubt if you're starting to drink some of that green Kool-Aid too with the relationship with the Xac Wilson has with your boy. But that all being said, I think they can get the win over the Dolphins, but that game is played in week 16. It is in New Orleans. So that gives me a little bit more confidence for him.
So I think they could get that one. And then I think it's going to be struggle bus city against the Pats and the Bills. As the day goes on here more after we cover the Pats yesterday, I just get higher and higher on them on the defensive. I think that Belichick is going to really, really have some stuff ratcheted up and in his back pocket to surprise the entire NFL and say, hey, last year was a fluke.
I don't know. You almost forgot is what old Billy Boy's called the same. I'm exactly all but no. Hold on.
You almost forgot. Okay. So I will give him, I'll give him the two and two in the AFC. Okay.
I am also going to and two. I think I am right in line with you. I will say two and two either way. I can see them.
I am predicting the same as you, but I wouldn't shock me if they beat the Patriots and lost the Dolphins, but I am predicting Jets and Dolphins are the two wins. At home week 16 Monday night against the Dolphins, even without jubries, I am just conditioned to believe that the Saints are going to win every prime time game at home Sunday, Monday night football in the Superdome. Yeah. So give me that one.
So I'll go to and do it with your partner. All right. So two and two from the both of us who are both on the same page one way or another and four and two and two. All right.
NFC each and we have so promptly coined here at the TTL pod. The Cowboys game is going to be interesting to me. I still don't know what we see from the Cowboys. I still can't put my thumb on it.
We covered them weeks ago. We said that the Saints could be one of the bigger question marks. The Cowboys are my number one biggest question. Yeah.
And I think the two are pretty doggone. Yeah. Pretty doggone for me. I think they can scratch out the win against the Giants.
I just think the Giants are going to be good enough this year. The Eagles as well. I just don't. I think it's going to be a lot of wheel spinning for the Eagles.
I think the football team gets that done. I think that defense if whether who's ever starting at that point that game is played in week five. So I would imagine that at the very least, James will get week one through week five and they got their buy week and week six. So if James is in that game, I could see that defense wreaking half on him and making him all types of confused.
So I will actually give the Washington football team that win and in a coin flip game in a last second deck press got rolling out to the right. All of a sudden, he sees CD lam streaking down with a bottom arms length, but behind the DB. Touchdown Cowboys win by two points. Some miraculous victory.
I'll say they go two and two in two each. Okay. I am going three and one here. I think the wins over the Giants and Eagles.
Eagles actually got him in Philly last year as a close game. So I think the same one. I'm sorry that would be three and one. Oh, no, I'm sorry.
Two. Yeah, boys. I'm sorry. Yeah.
Yeah. Yeah. My bad. So Giants and Eagles, the Eagles got him in Philly last year actually 24 21, but I think the Saints get a little revenge.
It isn't Philly again though. I mean, I'm sorry, Washington football team in the Cowboys and I lean towards Washington getting that win and then that is Thursday night in New Orleans against the Cowboys week 13 on a Thursday night. So I will give him that win, but much like you, that is a toss up for me. But nonetheless, I will go three and one out of the NFC each also coming off of a Thursday night football game in week 12.
Yes, the Buffalo Bills could be absolutely destroyed. And one of those guys be Thanksgiving and not being good shape for a shootout with the Cowboys. That's where my mind's at the Cowboys are on Thursday night the week before two. I think that week 12 might be Thanksgiving because there'd be a there's no rest disadvantage either arrested advantage disadvantage.
I think both teams are on Thursday night and Thursday night week. So that's something to think about there three and one for my partner. I'm going to stick to into definitely definitely possibility to go three and one. And honestly, that Cowboys Saints game is just the biggest point.
Yeah, for me, the Cowboys are more of a question mark for Riley. The same, some more question mark for me. That's just kind of why we're leaning the way we are. So moving right along, that's eight main non-divisional games wrapping it up.
The final three, my friends, they got the Saints, the pack and the Seahawks now. Saints pack and see. Oh, I'm sorry. Titans, the Packers and the Seahawks are who these Saints are playing.
That being said, I think they can squeak out the win against the Titans. I'm not sure that the Titans defense is going to be anything to write home about this year. So I think they can squeak that out against the Packers. That game is week one.
It's just going to be too much wheel spinning for New Orleans at that point in time, especially against the pack. I don't care that that's in New Orleans. It is the Caesar Sportsbook Dome now or something along those lines. Caesar's Dome, whatever it is now.
I saw that the other day. So I give the pack that one for sure as much as it pains me to say. And then as far as the Seattle Seahawks go, that is their game right out of the bi-week. And it's two of their harder games on the schedule right there.
Week seven, week eight, they got Seattle in Seattle Monday night football and then Tampa Bay. I think they're going to win that Seattle game even though it is in Seattle. I hope the 12th man scares me. It really, really does.
The only thing why I kind of lean that way is they have a plus seven rest of the show. And they're coming off of that and with Sean Payton being able to do that and have the time to think about that, put together a scheme, I would lean that way. I'm going to go. I'm going to go two and one.
Okay. The remaining three kind of a lean but could definitely be one and two. Okay. I'm leaning towards one and two here one way or another.
Very similar thoughts to you, but I'm going one and two. I just don't have enough confidence in any of these three games. Obviously, I'm going to give the pack the win in week one. I can't say too much else about that, but Seahawks and Titans, I think they split one way or another.
Both are on the road. They do as much as I like them in week seven coming off their buy in Seattle. I just don't know. I do kind of like the match against the Titans.
So one way or another, I'm going one and two, but that's my, these three are probably my least confident on all of these breakdowns that we've done as far as their own schedule here. Funny bat. Well, we have done it again, how we have done it again, whether you're with him or you're with me, it doesn't matter. You think that they struggle a little bit more in the NFC East or maybe you think they struggle a little bit more in the remaining three games.
Either way, you got a 10 and eight record there for the New Orleans 10 and seven record for the New Orleans Saints. I do apologize two, four, six, seven, eight, two, four, six, seven. Oh, I did the wrong. I write them next to each other.
Yeah. So 10 and seven, I forgot there's 17. There's not 18, 10 and seven 18 weeks. Either way, um, Saints going to win total is set at nine total wins.
So we're one over as always. We obviously have a boatload to talk about in the help heading portion. We will get right into that. We're not going to waste any time because obviously that is a lot to talk about with us.
How many question marks we had with the Saints and we got them going one win over the wind total. We got to walk back a little something something quick or maybe not at all who knows, but we got plenty to talk about. Stick around the third segment coming right up here in a second. But before we get into that courtesy guys over to the guys over to the team, they tell this out real nice and neat for us.
The key rest and prep advantages or disadvantages for the Saints here this year. They play two opponents that have over a week to prepare for the Saints and then they have one opponent that has less than a week to prepare. So nothing crazy. Only one difference, but still worth noting.
The Saints come in on two rest disadvantages, but they also play on two rest advantages. So it doesn't really matter anything there. Nothing once again that you really need to worry about. And then no short week road games for the Saints this year, but they do play two games off of a road Sunday night or Monday night football game.
And just so you are aware of those games that you know, one of those games is the Buccaneers and the other game is the Panthers. Or no, I'm sorry, the Dolphins talk about a week 15 Sunday night football. Yeah, I'm in the box week 16 Monday night football against the Dolphins. I mean, prime time here for the Saints.
The schedule makers are not shined away from him, but they did not screw them if you will as far as the rest of prep goes. So not something the Saints are going to have to worry about or another question mark, if you will, on top of all the other ones, they're going to have to battle this season. So there you go. You know, all of our predictions.
You know who they're playing. Let's break it down week by week. Talk about it in depth. Give you the value we're finding because, you know, we're spending analysts at the end of the day, handicappers for you.
Good old degenerates out there. Let's get into the full betting preview for the New Orleans Saints here in 2021. Now, before we do, we got to go back to the past real quick and dive into 2020. Now they had an average line in 2020 of 4.9.
They were favored by 4.9 points, almost five points there, and they have come way down into 2021, almost over actually three full points. They are 1.2 favorites now getting or giving a point and a half on average to their opponents. So obviously the books are not giving as much respect to this team with the loss of Drew Breeze, quarterback question marks, and these numbers might trend down even a little bit more with all these injuries. What do we see from the defense?
What do we see from the wide receiver room? Nonetheless, in 2021, they are still favored in 11 games and underdogs in only six games. So the books still respect them, even though they are by small numbers. As far as 2020 does go, 10 and 6, 8s record for the Saints, 12 and 4 straight up.
That does not include playoffs. They were 8 and 6 as a favorite and 2 and 0, 8s as an underdog. At home, we're still able to defend home turf even with a lot of injuries week to week 5 and 3 against the number 6 and 2 straight up. As a home favorite, they were 4 and 3.
So a little shaky there, but as a home dog, tried and drew 1 and 0, 8s. On the road, same exact splits, 5 and 3, 8s, 6 and 2 straight up, 4 and 3 as an away favorite, 1 and 0 as an away dog. So I think the Saints stay consistent. I think we're going to have to wait and see and not hammer them in right away.
Not to get into it too much, but I think I would lean definitely Packers earlier, maybe even all the opposing teams in the first five weeks. Definitely something to think about. So maybe they're not going to re-walk back my exactly how they get to 4 and 2 in the NSC South. Either way, that all being said, I still think we see a little bit of success here in the late season, at least against the number.
But we might see a lot of success against the game totals and I think this is something you need to take no go. So crank those headphones up real quick. Average 2020 line for the game totals for the Saints was 48. 8, 2021, they moved it all over the place right back to 48.8.
So it is the exact same total, my friends. So let me tell you a little bit how they did in 2020 and what I'm thinking here. 10 and 6 overall, once again, not including their two playoff games against the Bears and Bucks. At home, they were 6 and 2 to the over, 4 and 4 over under on the road.
They were 9 and 6 to the over as a favorite and 1 and 0 to the over as an underdog. I think we see a lot of overs here from this team once again. We'll talk about it here in just a second when we break down week by week, but they have some favorable over totals, especially against some favorable teams they're playing. And I think it could just be back and forth, back and forth, 30, 30 games, 35, 30 games.
So that's my opinion there. Last but certainly not least, tell you a little bit about 2020. I don't know if this regresses at all. This is in large part, I do believe because of Drew Brees, but their records for teasers, 6, 7 and 10 points respectively, 13 and 3, 13 and 3 and 14 and 1.
So definitely team, you want to add to your teasers, but I don't know how well they do against the number, especially early. So definitely a team to target and keep your eye on, but with all of the changes, all of the injuries, all of the everything going on in New Orleans right now, I think you got to take a step back and not read too much into those great teasers from number two. Slam them in right away, especially in the first five weeks of the season. So be a little bit tentative there when it comes to that.
That's all 2020. Let's go back to the future into 2021. Don't go and get rid of that or else I wouldn't know what the hell we're talking about today. First things first, let's break it down week by week here my friend.
Yes, sir. As you all know, I will tell you all of the spreads here as soon as I get to the right page, I kind of tell you some value that I'm finding early on here, things that I might hammer in or maybe even that I might fade, take the opposing team and then kick it over my partner. We'll talk a little bit more in depth quickly. Some nice high quality H2O.
Yes, sir. So before you start, week one has flipped. All right. Week one line has flipped.
So week one, the Saints are at home hosting the Green Bay Packers. They are giving or they are getting their games. They're getting three now. It is completely flipped.
They are 3.00 dogs against the pack. So I would definitely buy into that. But we'll talk about that here in a minute. Week two, they are giving two and a half points.
They are giving three points to the Carolina Panthers in Carolina, New England. They're giving a point in week three, week four. They are giving five and a half to the Giants. Week five, this might be my favorite one.
They are one and a half point favorites against the Washington football team. I would not only take the plus one and a half with the WFT, but I'm taking that money line in River Bowl. They coming out of the bye week and week six, they got the Seahawks in week seven in Seattle. They are getting three points against those Seahawks.
They're only getting two and a half points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That game is at home in week eight. I would have to hammer in the bucks minus two and a half. I think they come out swinging.
They know what they're getting now. They were able to get it done in the playoffs. And we all know Tom didn't even know what was going on on offense half the time during the regular season last year. We saw it time and time again and even admitted to it in the postseason week nine.
They are giving six points to Atlanta at home. That does not surprise me at all. But I'm not so fast to run to the window and a touchdown spread on the Saints offense. Week 10, they are getting two and a half points against the Titans.
That one is on the road in Tennessee. Then they stay on the road in week 11. Go to Philly, but they are giving three and a half points to the Eagles. And then they go to or actually it's back home, but they play the bills in week 11.
They are that has come down now at the time of writing. It was minus three and a half. They were three and a half points favorites. Now it's down to minus three.
So maybe something to look. I apologize. I thought you were under week 12. Oh, I'm okay.
So yeah, it is 11 is minus three and a half. They have my favorites against the Eagles. And then week 12, they are three point dogs. That is on Thanksgiving.
Wowza. So it was plus one and a half. So I'm going to go to three point dogs on week 12. Thanksgiving against the Bills.
Week 13, they are favored against the Cowboys by three and a half points. So that might be something. Oh, it's down. Oh, I'm guessing it's a touchdown.
So I'm thinking that might be something where I take the points with the boys. And then week 14, they are giving three points to the Jets on the road. Then week 15, they get a touchdown against the Bucks in Tampa Bay. Week 16, they're giving three and a half to the Dolphins.
So potentially that is the game that they get as a or they do not get as we are predicting. I do like the three and a half points with the Dolphins. And I think I even like the Dolphins money line in that situation as well. And then week 17, they are giving six and a half points to the Panthers at home and then close out the season as a one point dog to the Atlanta Falcons.
Obviously that one not being in New Orleans either way. I think it's still valuable playing week 18. That might be one of the only times you can play him against the Falcons. But as I said in week nine, I don't know how comfortable I am laying a touchdown and eating that chalk against the Falcons.
I might look at the Falcons, but I got to see what the fact we as one of the first teams we covered and I got to see a lot first early to go back to the Falcons for a minute. Yeah, I read some of these first few things. I don't know. I will see what we see from them.
But we'll see what we see. Yeah, no kidding. But other than that, that's got to my predictions overall. Some of the value that I'm finding here early just glancing through the weekly line.
Is there anything jump off the board at you before I dive into some game? Yeah, nothing crazy jumps out at me. I think they should be decent at home. The one thing that I will say as far as the over under kind of like you said, I think it's going to be real similar last year.
But with James, if James Winston is the starting quarterback, whatever week it is, I think it's going to be an over team. If Tayson Hill finds his way into the starting job, I think we could see an under team. The four weeks that Hill was the starting quarterback when Drew Brees was out last year, only one of the game totals. These aren't, I don't know what the betting numbers are.
I just had this up and was thinking about this as we were going. Three out of the four that he started were under 40 points. So I have to imagine those were all unders and the one that did go over 40 points was 45 points. So that one might be a toss up as far as what the total was.
What games were those in my front? So that is weeks 11 through 14. Stomachs, some opponents. Falcons, Broncos, Falcons and Eagles.
The Falcons, Broncos. So those games went under, under, under, and over against the Eagles. So, yeah. So yeah, Tayson Hill is the starting quarterback.
I am going to say hammer the under just about every single time. Yep. So that's really all I can say here. You know, none of these other ones really slight me in the face just yet.
As you said, I think we're going to have to see this team and a couple of the other teams that are on their schedule. So nothing to really draw from it from my perspective quite yet. Yeah, this might be an under team. I really don't know kind of getting into the game totals.
They don't really have anything super low. Everything is right around the lowest one is 46 and a half. Everything 47, 48, 49, 50, 51 and a half. And they're all right around there.
The most common is 48 and 50. So I think they're setting those because we don't know who's going to be quarterback. We don't know if it's going to be an over team, if it's going to be an under team. So I think the moral of the story as we kind of went through everything there is we're going to have to wait and see.
We're going to have to kind of let the Saints write their own story here in the first few weeks of the 2021 season before I think we can run to the window and try and hammer any bets on them. Now, they might be worth a fade. I wouldn't mind taking the Packers as a favorite. I wouldn't mind taking the points with the Panthers.
I might even look at the Moneyline with the Patriots in week three. So I think the first five weeks might be a struggle and a half year for the guys. And I don't know all too much value you can find early. So definitely be tentative when it comes to New Orleans Saints.
Depending on what that week for number is against the Giants, that might be the one out of those first five weeks that I might be interested in. Absolutely. Yeah. You can do the little burps.
I didn't know. I didn't know. I didn't. I must have been on different noise.
I didn't know anything. I didn't know anything. Just in case for future reference that all being said, keep it moving, keep it grooving. Pardon.
I got to ask you. Not that I really even need to ask you. No. Week one is not waiting anymore.