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We hope you enjoy. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, ladies and gentlemen, degenerates and gamblers. For and what? Welcome in to episode number 126 of the Talking the Line Podcast on this beautiful Thursday night.
Football, Thursday night college football, everything in between of bets, also known as September 16th, 2021. Now I know you're dying from the Stone Coldbox. I know you saw some of the tweets that were floating around the bird app yesterday of some of the names the TTL crew is being held in regards with. So we got plenty of analysis, plenty of picks, plenty of good stuff to get into today.
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Ladies and gentlemen and beautiful gambling people joining us on episode number one 26. I am your humble host Colton coal 45 Soroka and thank you so much once again for choosing to stop by the TTL pod and get back to business at the end of the day. As usual, I know you know the drill at this point time Mondays Thursdays and Fridays are nothing but stone cold plays. We don't like to say locks anymore.
We're getting away from that word. We'll tell you why later, but stone cold plays picks analysis everything in between and running tickets to the window with me and the guy sitting to my left now. It is my fault. I have yet to bring him into the show and I would not be able to row the proverbial TTL pod boat gently down the stream without help from this man.
Now we may agree disagree on a few things from time to time as far as his cheese head fandom as far as my bear down fandom as far as his horseshit. I mean, I'm not a sell ciders as far as my wonderful north side Ivy dwellers, but we do agree on one thing and that's cash and damn tickets. So without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, let me bring him on in the man, the myth, the degenerate gambling legend himself, Mr. Riley, R Max, Magnuson.
Barner, how you doing over there today, pal? My man, I'm doing pretty damn fine. I got a couple things here. First, as far as the smash the subscribe button, I think our top of the whip wish list item is going to have to be one of those like, you know, fair, fair type hammer thing.
Maybe we just roll over to six flags. Wait a minute. It's only a few miles up the stream. There's got to be a local fair.
Oh, shit, I'm always about a nice little corny game. That's a hell of an idea, man. He's fucking, you know, gamble with them on the hammering there. So that's one year up.
Bear down. It was more of like the automated. I'm a Chicago bear down fan. And that's about how the bear season is going about is automated robotic is that.
So that's my final jam of the bears. Thanks a lot. We appreciate you coming in. Welcome to the pod.
If so number 126, we are live in prime time, my friends. Hey, hey, hey, what we go anywhere? You know the drill to me to you. It's all you beautiful people out there sipping on some of the black elixir of the gods.
Take your sip and let's get to it. Oh goodness. Hey, that's better than the last three days this week. You got your coffee mix back right after the whole honey almond, whatever the fuck it was.
Hey, I took that shit not through it off the damn balcony. I was I didn't even want to put it in the trash. It wasn't even it didn't even you couldn't even put it in a trash. That's so bad.
It's not even trash. It just needed to be let off into nature and go do whatever it was. Hey, you ever think about mixing almond and honey and coffee together? Is that what I was?
Oh, yeah. Leave it be folks. Leave it be. I'll tell you first.
It is bad. Either way. We're here to talk about the bears, the Packers, any of that stuff. Well, maybe towards the end of the show, we got a little banter on Max sidebar.
My motivation minutes, you know how we close it out. We like to be a little bit different. Keep the, uh, mundaneness of what can be a daily sports gambling show kind of out of the picture. We don't like to be this typical cookie cutter.
However, you cut your cookies, whatever cookies you like. We don't like to be that kind of show. You'll never find it here at the TTL pot. But for now, stick around until the very end.
But we got to cut all the nonsense, stop all the drama and quit all the banter because it is time to get to the real reason why you come to the TTL pot, especially right now on Mondays, Thursdays and Fridays, but every other day of the week. And that is for these stone cold picks, plays, props, analysis and everything in between and run it tickets to the window with the TTL crew all day and night long. Hey, so without further ado, we ain't wasting any time. We ain't wasting any breath.
It's time to start getting out some plays. It's time to open up your sports book, open your ear holes wide and get ready for nothing, but straight knowledge to penetrates into your dome pieces. All that being said, I really mean get out your sports book because these fucking lines are moving all over the place. The public has woken up.
It's all over the place, especially with our spread and total picks. Please open them up now, get ready to smash these in. Do not wait. We have great value.
We'll go through all of our Max picks. All of my picks. We do have two TTL crew plays. We named it a TTL crew lock, but nothing's a lock, but this is just as close as it gets to TTL crew plays.
We'll recap everything for you. Put it on the screen. So you have one final opportunity to smash it in and then we'll get on to the rest of the show. Oh, also might have a little college football value for you guys as well in my business.
So hey, let's get started. First segment of the day, my friends, you know the drill. It's time to kick it on over to him. Our Max best bets of the day.
I already told you turn that volume way up. Get them ear holes opened up and without further ado. Hey, partner. You have the fool.
All right. I appreciate it. My man. So I've only got a couple here tonight.
Obviously aside from our crew plays, which I'm obviously also on, but I've got one. We're actually on the second one also together. So I'll start that one off and then I know you've got some some gaps. Yeah, yeah, you got some solid numbers there.
So my first one that I am on is going to be the old starting QB for the WFT, Washington football team. Taylor Heineke, I am going over 22 and a half rushing yards. This guy is more of a rushing quarterback than you know than what you may have seen. If you've watched him closely, you might see that, but obviously you might be a little concerned about this.
Not a guy that you know too much about. He's only taking a couple of very only really a couple games where you've seen a decent sample size of him. Other than that, it's sprinkled in throughout the last few years. But in my eyes, he's appeared to be much more competent than people are leading on and he's much more of a rush than people are leading on.
If you take out a couple earlier appearances in his career where he came in for a couple snaps, snap count in the game was under 10%. So I didn't look too far as whether it was taking knees or just random random BS. So if you take those out anywhere, any game there, he's less than 10% of the snap out. He's got 118 yards on 15 carries.
That's 7 7.86 yards per carry 17 yards on three carries last week. We only played about 60% of the game and he's got two games where he's played at least 90% of the game and he's got a 33 yard game in there and a 46 yard game in there. One of those is in the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Bucks last year. So I think Heineke is going to be running.
I don't want to say running all over the Giants tonight, but I think he's got at least three, four solid runs in him, kind of at the 7.86 yards per carry. I really like the athleticism that I saw last week against the Chargers. And I think this game is going to be one where, and you know, you've got some action here as well that I also like, but I don't think people are giving Mr. Heineke enough credit here.
And I think he's going to have a hell of a game and there's going to be a few spots where he's going to be using his legs here. Teddy Bridgewater had. He stayed under 22 and a half, but you know, the perception might be that Teddy runs a lot, but you know, he picks and chooses his spots very carefully. And I think he was there three or three carries for 19 yards, which obviously isn't over this.
But I think Heineke is going to have at least five, six carries where he's getting five, six, seven yards to carry here. So I'm going with this one all night long, partner. I 150% agree with you. I'm on the same page.
Listen, everything you're saying just battling my Michael, a little bit of a drop in a car and see now it's listening to me. It's flapping all over the place. What the fuck are you doing? So so it's all good now.
We're back on the same page. All right. So yeah, I do have a play opposite of kind of what you're doing. I want to say opposite is just through the air and I'm not sure.
But it's same with Heineke. I do love this one. I think that there is just not enough tape out there in the books are setting these prices. Wait, wait, wait, wait too low and that'll kind of be how I kick off my Heineke analysis.
But there you go. Our Maxxverse best bet of the day partner, please. And thank you. We're both on this play together and I think it has loads of value drop down.
No, two already. I mentioned you've got some key numbers on this one that I let you lay down, but we are going with Antonio Gibson under 70 and a half rushing yards. You might be concerned or not concerned, but we're fucking nuts now. Yeah, especially with you being Mr.
Gibson's of anarchy on your fantasy team. Nonetheless, we're going with under 70 and a half yards. He had well over this last week. However, this Giants team is actually quite sneakily one of the better rushing defenses in the entire league.
They were number 11 last year against the rush as far as rushing yards and the majority of that was against running back. So I think he I think he's not having okay game, but I think the 70 is a little too much for him. I think Heineke is going to be the guy that's making these plays for Washington. Whether through the air like you're about to talk about here or like I said on the ground and you know, Gibson should make an impact here and there.
But I don't think he's going to have any big rushing yard. You know, breakout runs. You look at that game from last week partner against the Broncos at the Giants played. You see the box door you see Melbourne Gordon 11 carries 100 yards.
He was sitting at about 10 carries for 30 yards until he broke loose a 70 yard touchdown run. I don't think that's going to happen tonight again. They also held down to about 10 Williams to I want to say 14 carries 45 yards, which these rushing numbers as far as yards per carry are extremely low. And I think we see that again tonight partner.
I agree wholeheartedly, which is why this is one of my best bets of the day. Actually my first one that I was going to dish out. So I'm so glad this is how you finished it, but I will kind of put cap on it here for you. My friends now.
I love Antonio Gibson. You alluded to it. Gibson's of anarchy is the name of my fucking fantasy football team. So I would be insane to think he's going under 70, but as a betting man, this is where it's going to lie.
There's a reason that they take it down to 70 after he put up 90 on 20 attempts last week. Reason number one, it's low enough for the public to hammer the absolute piss out of it. Reason number two, it's low enough that the sharps will not absolutely destroy it. So you got both groups of betting parties taken care of and I use a few different prediction projection sources pretty much across the board.
They got them predict. They have Gibson projected at 61 and a half yards for the game tonight. So I love that. But a couple of key trends, a couple of key things here I wanted to mention in two appearances versus the Giants last year in Gibson's rookie year.
He put up in the first appearance 30 yards. McKissick actually outpaced him with 41 yards and in the second appearance, he put up 20 yards. Not to mention both games. The Giants across the board held a football team to 86 yards in total and then 37 yards in total.
Shutting down the football team's running game is where they hang their hats. Right. Not so much shutting down the passing game, but I'll digress on that and pick that back up here in just a little while. Overall, Giants were 11th in the league last year with only 111.4 rush yards allowed to opponents per game.
So I love that. And it really has to be the right spot to be able to play this on Antonio Gibson. And I think this is just absolutely the right spot. Two closing trends you guys got to note here and I think you need to be aware of to hammer this one in.
Mr. Gibson hit the over 70 and a half rush yards in two out of his first 10 games in 2020 and hit the over 70 and a half rush yards in four out of his final 10 games of the season. So either way you look at it whichever side of the schedule you want to look, he's not favorable to this number. So please my friends, hammer this in.
It's extremely valuable. The public looks right at it right away and it's going to be running to the over do not do so. Mags best bet. Also my best bet we're taking it in both our cards and Tony Gibson under 70 and a half rushing yards.
Love it. Anything else you need to add lay down hammer out. I think he might be a little bit more of a factor in the passing game today partner. Well, hey, I enjoy the sound of that because I do need that for fantasy purposes and that would help Mr.
Heineke in my plan as well. So hey, hey, before we get into all of that nonsense, partner, thank you for your play. Of course. Thank you for your analysis.
I appreciate the hell out of you as always. Let's get into the second segment of the day. The second half of the TTL crew. Here's truly that does a freaking lot of talking sometimes and just needs to shut up and get on the show.
So with that, I'll be in said second segment of the day. My best best of the day. All right, my friends. So already talks about Antonio Gibson play.
That's number one. I have don't look at me sideways. Five props coming at you that Antonio Gibson is one of them. So we got four more to get through.
But I think no, I don't think I believe they have immense value. I went through hours and hours and numbers on this. I went through a bunch of trends and looked at some key projections. I'm telling you folks, I am feeling a night and a half out of the TTL crew tonight.
So let me give you these props, listen up loud and clear because they're about to come in hyper speed. No hesitation. No delay today. So you remember me just a little while ago, I said, oh, the Giants defense.
They hang their hats on stopping the rush, but not so much the pass. Well, I'll pick up right where I left off for my second. I'm the best bet of the day. And that is Mr.
Taylor Heineke over to 45 and a half passing yards. Got on partner. That seems like a high number for a guy like that. Man, it sure does.
You know, he just is not a quarterback that good and bingo. That's exactly why this is a very, very valuable play. There is no film on this man. He's played two games.
If you break him down in total, he's played two halves and two separate games and then one full game. And then the that's all he's got. That's all he's got. You can't deduct anything.
So first things first, you have to realize is that the books are setting that number based off of what he's already produced. And two 45 and a half is exactly two times what he's put up in both the games where we only played half the game. So he's picked up half the yards and half the game. Now that all being said, those three games are very, very, very, very important.
Statlines for him. The first one against Carolina December 27th, the 2020 with 12 for 19 with 137 and that was a half a game. The second one I'll skip over the third game. I'll come back to that second one.
Stick up in and relax. Hold on. The third one. And 11.
No, no, 11 of 15 for 122 against the Chargers this past Sunday. And that was only half the game as well. Now the one that was a full game against the Buccaneers in the playoffs. This past January, 2021, he went 26 of 44 for 306 played the full fucking game against the Tampa Bay, Buck and the Year.
That is the game that matters the most. That was the true version of Taylor Heineke. You saw it with his feet. That's why my partner ran to that side.
46 yards in that game on the ground saw it with the air, 306. That's why I ran to this side. But if you don't believe me, not anything crazy that you can draw from Heineke because we haven't seen him, but the last two meetings between the football team and the Giants, Mr. Kyle Allen was quarterback and the Mr.
Alex Smith was quarterback. Kyle Allen had 365 fucking past. And Alex Smith had 251. So that being said, both those numbers are above the total today.
And I think Heineke is a better quarterback than both those young men. I hate to say it. However, we just haven't seen enough maybe bit of an overreaction last final thought giant. So you mentioned Teddy to gloves.
They gave up 255 passing yards to him last week and he has a very similar quarterback, Dink and dunk might rip off a big one here or there and might have a play in regards to him ripping off a big one here or there to but I digress for now. My second best bet of the day. Taylor Heineke over 245 and a half passing yards. Other than that.
Third best bet of the day, my friends. Here we go. Keeping it moving, keeping it grooving. I am going to the other QB, the field general, if you will, but not so much the field general, if you will.
Danny used to be dropping dimes Jones. Now I got some stuff to talk about here because I'm confused as shit with the books are trying to do to me and to everybody else, but I think I got the valuable side. We're going under 237 and a half passing yards. Now what I got to tell you before I look at all these trends and going up to 237 even cemented these numbers even further for me.
They were already good, but now they're even better. So I'm confused books open this up right around 227. If you don't follow me on Twitter, I tweeted this morning. You can find it some places 229 and a half.
So right there. Okay, cool. Last night for a hit the pillow about midnight, little after it jumped up to this 237 to 38. I was finding it on books.
Oh, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, 11 points 10 points. What in the world? So my hypothesis, my friends, what I'm thinking is that the sharp saw that total was so damn low 225 and a half and they started beating the absolute his out of the under because he put up 267 yards last week. Why would you drop it all the way down to 225?
So I think I think I'm not 100% sold on this, but I think they picked it up a little bit more to get some more public buy in on that over. So the public wouldn't see that 225 and a half and be like, oh shit, it's dropped that much. He has to go under. I think they pushed it up a little bit more to get some buyback on that over now.
That's just my hypothesis, but I got some more stuff to back this up for you guys. I found this projected multiple spots right around 225 to 26 and a half. So you're giving me just about 11 12 points or yards. I'm going to take that every single dog on time and I think the football team confuses the absolute mess out of him today and really leads to that.
Last but certainly not least, the key trends that you guys should be aware of is why I'm officially taking this play. He hit the over Daniel Jones of 237 and a half in only five out of 16 games in 2020 three out of his final 10 games in 2020. The football team has allowed Jones to go over 237 and a half in one out of the last five meetings, my friends going all the way back to 2018 when he took over for Eli. In other words, Jones is one to the under in the last five Jones averaged in 2020 183.9 past yards.
When you look at that compared to his average past yard prop total that was set at 221 and a half. You see an average differential of plus 37.8. Holy shit, I have to take advantage of that edge as well. If you didn't watch episode number two of the wise words podcast with Preston Johnson, you can now see it and we talked about edges and that is my edge here.
Ladies and gentlemen, he might get right to it. He might get to 218. He might get to 220. That's okay.
That's fine. It might be a little bit of a sweat, but I'm telling you he's going to go under this number. Do not let the books trick you from taking it to 227 up to 237. That makes zero sense that they needed to do that at all with the projection being at 225 and a half.
He does not have success against the football team. The football team needs to ratch it up and prove what they got on defense. Case closed. I think I'm with the honor partner.
I think I am. I don't have too much to add, but I think I'm watching the football defense. I'm watching football team defense. That's such a weird mouthful of the say.
I think I'm gonna cause problems like you said for him and we saw last week he you know he wasn't that effective against the Denver Broncos. And I think we're gonna see more of that even more of that this week. Oh, God. What's up Johnny?
See we're talking about you the other day. What else are guys been at? He had been in the chat. Hey, 100%.
That's that's kind of what I'm thinking. He might not even fucking crack 200 dude. Like that's kind of why I leaned into this one. And the fact that they ripped it up to 237 that's just as I go.
Okay. You ain't using me pals. I looked at it pretty hard this morning. I was like, I'm buying into this shit.
So hey, by the way, welcome back on the other. Good to see you, my man. All right. So, hey, let's keep moving, keep it grooving.
My third best bet of the day. I'm going back to Danny Don. So actually, this will be my fourth. I'm sorry.
Yeah. This is my fourth. Well, Gibson was number one. Yeah, fourth going back to Daniel Jones, but I'm going to his rushing yards total.
It's two points, less than Mr. Heineke's. It's their 20 and a half might have ticked up might have ticked down. Not too sure.
But either way, I'm okay with it going up to about 22 and I'm gonna take the over 20 and a half rushing yards for Mr. Jones. Now, you'll see the video floating around the beautiful intro web and Twitter today. The last time the Danny Dimes was on Thursday night football and he absolutely bit the dust running for what was like a 70 80 yard play.
And his prop total was actually right around this. It was 16 and a half and I played it and I had pretty similar analysis. I believe that he can get this done in one swoop. He can rip it off.
He can get one 20 yard run on a blown coverage because, and not even a blown coverage because the football team generates so much damn pressure. The secondary locks everybody down. They take everybody 50 yards downfield and then he's got a 20 yard lane of open path and I see it happening and it was clear to me last week too. Now, I'm not saying that Sequon isn't back, but there's something in me that's saying they're limiting him a little bit and he's not 150% Sequon.
There's a very distinct difference between that 150 and 100% Sequon. And when he's 150% as 150 200 yards and he's ripping shit off every damn game, no question about it. You know he's getting the ins on twice. I don't think that's here yet.
And I think Danny Dimes, his feet are a big, big part of the game plan to take some of that pressure off of Sequon, especially with some of that play action too. So I think he might get stuck in one of those boots might have to roll out might have some design runs and he gets well over 20. I got him projected right around 24 and a half year in total. So I love that.
He opened up last week six attempts for 27 yards. So clear he is part of the rushing attack. Not to mention. So final key trends.
He hit the over at this total 20 and a half six of the first seven games in 2020. Not so much towards the end, but that was because the Giants kind of threw that season out the window at that point in time. They looked to be the same team they were at the beginning of last year. They looked to be pretty much similar production wise.
They're trying to win football games in the NFC East as weird as that seems. We're still way low on them. And I just I don't buy it. And we'll talk about that a little bit later too.
Now he has covered the over in two out of the last four meetings on the 20 and a half. Did have a couple brutal games, but what is the football team or just in general against the football team? But what I will tell you is that those games that he did struggle. Those were the second games of the season.
The football team knew the game plan and knew what they needed to do. Both times he went over with the opening games against the football team in the last two seasons. So I absolutely love this one. And I'm going to be hammering the absolute mess already have it's already my best slip.
It's already locked in on action. Everything in between Daniel Jones over 20 and a half rushing yards. Okay. This might I like it.
I think I'll back down this one. This might be my of the five that you have. This might be my little I don't want to say least favorite because I do like it, but. Probably my own personal least confidence on this one and I love all your analysis.
I think he should get that number. There's just part of me that thinks the Washington football team just absolutely might embarrass him. But I think I'm going to be with you on this one. Nonetheless.
Yeah, I just don't think he and much like you just said right there, John. I just don't think that he's going to be able to really pass much at all. And he's going to have that's what he's going to have to do it. So there you go.
There you go. All right. My last one. Let me wrap it up here with my fifth prop fifth and final prop.
I'll find it. He's going to go over. He's going to need somebody to help him out. Correct.
All right. So I'm going to Mr. F1 Terry Mick score and Mick Lauren. You know what the deal is.
I'm going over 67 and a half receiving yards now. Last week of the Chargers with a brutal QB situation fits magic goes. Oh, oh, oh, it's magic is out for at least eight weeks on I.L. But back to Mr.
Heineke. I are back to we are not in baseball. But back to Mr. Heineke.
Mr. McLaurin. That being said, it was kind of all over the map. They never really got a good offensive flow.
They had to rush the ball a lot. It was goofy the time of possession in the second half. I'm throwing all that out the window and with McLaurin B and four four sixty two against a good charger secondary. I think that continues here once again tonight.
Now I think it's set right at that 67 and a half because I do believe a lot of the public is going to be on the underside of things. I think they're still going to be buying it to table Heineke is not that guy. And I do believe he is a dude. And I think he is going to need Mick Scorn to have a game tonight.
And that's why I'm playing this one. Now all of that being said, it's prime time, baby. I think that McLaurin gets at least 75. But if you don't believe me, let me give you some key trend.
Do you think I just come to a night fight without a gun? No, sir. Not a damn chance. Hit the over 67 and a half.
Eight of the first 10 games in 2020 and eight out of his life. And eight out of his final 10 games in 2020. So either way, you cut the cake there. He's still hitting that bad boy at an 80% clip.
Three and O to the over 67 and a half against the New York City football giants with a hundred and fifteen seventy four and eighty six receiving yards and not a damn one of those games was in prime time football. That all being said, he missed one game or else he'd be four and over. He had a little bit of injury going on. And I just told you it's 75 plus for me.
This is prime time, Terry ladies and gentlemen, you better wake up real fast and in a hurry and get ready for this man to absolutely have the burners on tonight. That all being said, one final time, my fifth best bet of the day, Mr. Terry McLaurin over 67 and a half. Yeah, I'm right there.
Are you asking me? Yeah. Oh, I'm going to check right now. No, I was at 67 and a half.
I was checking something else just for my own comment here. All right. Well, there you go. There you have it, ladies and gentlemen.
My five thirty nine football props for tonight. Okay. Now quickly, everybody strap in. Everybody.
Ooh, Daniel, hold on. Well, before I go anywhere. Hold on. Daniel Jones, sector, we're under three and a half.
Scary Terry, eighty five and two TCD. I like that. Ooh, sacked over under three and a half. Man, I think this is where we see Chase Young just ratcheting the fuck up.
Three and a half is a lot. I think maybe. Maybe. Maybe.
I don't know. We didn't look into that. So I'm looking at that too deep. But we'll save that for the end of the show.
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. Give me fucking.
Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. We'll talk about that a little bit more here. But hey, hey, hey, hey, wait a minute. Everybody cool out everybody.
Everybody. Sell down for a second. Hell of a question there, John. That all being said, I told you beginning of the show.
It might be TNF Giants football team on the title. Mm hmm. That's not all we got for you. We got plenty of other value.
You just hold on. That's all gone right now. There is a college football game going on tonight. So I will be having two TVs pumping rock and just absolutely injecting it right into my veins and arteries.
We got the Ohio Bobcats against the ULL region Cajuns tonight. It is at Cajun Field and Lafayette, Louisiana. Now that all being said. They don't have southern accidents down there.
They have whatever the hell that is. But my southern accent has now come out folks. We might just do that with the southern accent. No, I'm kidding.
I'm not going to do it. Two plays coming out of this one. I'm going to the spread and I'm also going to the game total. I'm taking the Bobcats plus 20 and a half or 21 and a half wherever you find it.
I'm perfectly comfortable with this bad boy all the way to 17 and a half. I think this is not even a touchdown game max. I think this is an absolute over reaction. I'll tell you a little bit more, but I'm also taking the under in this game 56 and a half.
I wanted to get both those out because I think those lines are going to start popping. But for the first one, Bobcats plus 20 and a half. Like I said, this is way too high. This is way too much of an over reaction.
The public loves the Cajuns. I love the Cajuns. They were fucking terrific last year. They were awesome to back there.
Great team. But you look into it. Ohio and ULL are the same damn team. They are the same damn team.
There is no size high weight. They're the same team. And even though they're kind of in different conferences, a little bit different wavelengths. Ohio didn't play in 2020.
So almost nobody knows Jack squad about them. And they are under the radar. Sure. Cold.
They got their asses whooped by Syracuse 29 to 9 in week one. They couldn't finish drives. They were still figuring out how to get back on a football field in 2021. And I think they got that figured out.
And I think this is a back and forth scoring affair. Now I'm not saying they get the victory, but I do predict this as a 28 to 24 victory for ULL. So that obviously covers the plus 20. And that also takes us under.
So I had to make a play on the under as well. But final closing thoughts on the Bobcats as far as rushing goes. Neither rushing offense is anything to write home about. Neither rushing defense is anything to write home about.
ULL is 119th in the nation right now with an 83 and a half average per game on offense. And then Ohio is 93rd in the nation. Actually a little bit better with a 136 and a half average on offense defensively. ULL is allowing 163 and a half yards per game to opposing running backs in Ohio 120th in the nation, 233 and a half.
So right about the same wavelength there on both. But how about the passing game? Oh, I'm so glad you asked because yeah, ULL is pretty damn good. They got a solid passing attack of very good quarterback, but so does Ohio.
And I'm going to be able to keep pace plenty here today. ULL is ranked 31st in the nation with 293 right on the dot passing yards per game. And Ohio is only 95th in the nation with 190. I think they'll get around a little bit more high than that, 250.
Now that being said, I'd be even a little bit higher because ULL is decreasing. I think they'll get a little bit higher because ULL's defense is 123rd in the nation with 312 exactly past yards average to opponent quarterbacks per game. And Ohio State 21st in the nation with 143 average yard allowed to opposing quarterback. So I think the Ohio secondary.
Not I think I know the Ohio secondary is going to have just fine evening keeping pace. I think both of these teams are going to score at an identical clip. It is not going to be a run away for the raging Cajuns and I'm not buying into that nonsense. But you know me closing trends.
Ohio 8 and 0, 8 T S, you know I'm a day of the week, Homer last eight Thursday games. Dammit, maxi baby. Whoo! Maxi in Ohio 13 and 3 last 16 games as a pooch.
You know I love me a good underdog. ULL 0 and 4 ATS last four games in September. 3 and 6 last 9 games following a straight up win. ATS.
ULL is also 1 and 5 ATS in our last 6 home games. ULL 3 and 6 ATS last 9 games as a favorite and 1 and 3 ATS last 4 games as a home favorite. I'm not buying into the nonsense. This is not a 3 touchdown game.
This is a 1 touchdown game maximum. Maybe a 2 field goal game maximum. So please and thank you not for my benefit for yours. I am going to be hammering.
No, I've already hammered the shit out of it. Please do as well my friends. The Ohio Bobcats plus 20 and a half. I love my man.
I love it. I'm on both of these with you. I just didn't quite have the same confidence as you did not to say that I don't but you know not for the podcast here. But I love it.
I don't think it's a 3 touchdown game. ULL hasn't looked. They're not the same team they were last year either. They're still solid.
I enjoy watching them. But they don't have that same edge they had last year. I was also looking and you and I talked about it before. I said, hey, maybe a little alternate spread plus 14.
You can get a little juicy odds here. You can't catch Ohio any less than 17 plus 17. That's the lowest draft Kings let you go. I haven't checked Fandil so maybe it's a different story there.
But that sounds a little concerning for me. The low as you can go is plus 17. And then if you're really back in Ohio, you got to go all the way to their money line to catch any higher and longer odds than that. I mentioned I wasn't scared of plus 17.
But I don't that aren't even that spectacular. Well, I'm going to see him. Either way, what I do know is that the 20 and a half is extremely valuable. On addition to what everything I said, there's a lot of other stuff that goes in.
And you can't even get an alternate spread on Fandil. Can't even get an alternate spread on Fandil. Thanks for checking part. Let's get into the second final one from me.
Ladies and gentlemen, live on your screen. Not live on your screen. I'm sorry. I haven't got to that yet.
My second best bet college football best bet of the evening. Now my seventh and final play all for me before we get into group plays. Taking the under 56 and a half in this game told you that kind of based off my projection, I see this is a 28 24 game right there about 52. I wouldn't take this any lower than 54 and a half.
Now these two teams so far in 2021 have actually combined three and one to the under game totals. You want to know where those two of those three unders have come from? The Raigeon Cajons, ladies and gentlemen. So if you're worried about anybody, it should not be the Raigeon Cajons.
They are an under team so far this year. They're four and oh, you know, I'm a day the week home or yet again for a note of the under their last four Thursday games. They're four and oh, in their last four games to the under following a straight up loss. They are four and oh to the under in their last four home games and as a home favorite, the under is five oh and one in ULL's last six non conference games and five one and one in their last seven games overall.
I know they're scoring machine, but if you're worried about anybody should be them. They got the under trends and the bobcats are going to keep this one tight. So give me the under 56 and a half. Don't go under 54 and a half for my seventh and second college football final best bet of the day.
I love it, man. I love it. All right. So there you go ladies and gentlemen.
Okay. Now, let me get this nonsense off of the screen real quick. Yeah, Johnny, if you're still hanging. Yeah, he's a huge sleeper.
He is a solid guy for sure. I think he's gonna have a solid game, but I can't think of his name off the top of my head. But yeah, it's a solid day. They got a great team.
But the thing is that's just too damn much. That is too damn much for the team. They have two damn high and these teams, two damn high and these two teams are really, really similarly mess. All right.
So, enough lab enough lab and there you go. I'm gonna have to make some picks now. We have to move a couple real quick. And that is the TTL Cruz best bets the crew plays, if you will, of the day of the evening.
So we are going back to the match up between the Giants and the football team. And let me get this bad boy slapped on up in prime time, the TTL crew play. All right. We got to plays.
We got to we're going to the spread. Now, please do your line shopping before I start anything saying do your line shopping. We are going and you can probably tell from the color of my shirt. But maybe you haven't known by now.
Well, Paul team minus three here. That is a way too juicy not to take. Now, you've seen it minus three and a half. I would be very, very, very tentative and I would find with all my might to stick it at three.
Now I'm still not over the moon confident in the football team that this is not a field goal game. But I do think that they get it done and they cover that minus three. No question. But the minus three and a half.
This scares me a little bit. The value is gone. There's less insurance for sure. That all being said, as far as my thoughts on this one, a couple key things I wanted to lay down as far as the public's perception man.
They are all over the giant still because they still think they have a lot. But I'm not buying it. You can look everybody. We talked about it before.
Everybody's a genius now. Everybody has their own things. You can look the giant's are four and one eight years in the last five against the football team is a whole new cup of pudding. A whole new cake mix.
This is going to be a whole new cake that comes out of this oven here tonight. Let me tell you that ladies and gentlemen. So listen on up. I'm not buying the fact that the Giants went six and two eight years last year on the road.
We talked about that in the season preview and I'm not buying it when six and one eight years as a road dog. You can miss me with all of that. They were easy games against the Bears. Against the Cowboys.
That was the game. Dak was injured against the Eagles against the football team and against the Bengals without Joe Burrow. So give me an effing break with six and two eight years on the other side. The other three with a raven sea hawks and Rams and they got manhandled and they covered huge spread.
So I don't even want to hear any of that nonsense. Football team six and three ATS at home in 2020. One in one as a home favorite. Not many opportunities.
So when you see him this low smashed the hell out of it. They are a entirely new completely new powerful team here in 2021. And I think we're going to see that defense flex their muscles and keep the Giants from for the first time in a few years even cracking 20. So my humble opinion.
But at all being said football team has had more games than the Giants in the last few years and I zeroed in last two games last year. They let the game slip away. But they have. Rushmore they passed more they produced way more.
402 to 350 in the first game last year. 337 to 240 in the last game last year. The first game second game last year. Tongue tight is all hell.
Let me stop talking. Give me some of your thoughts partner. Watch the football team. Yeah.
The main thing that I can add here is that I mean you kind of alluded to it. But I think people are sleeping a little too hard on this Washington football team and obviously they lost last week. But if you follow us for a while we truly think and kind of in our opinions validated that the Chargers are a damn good football team and extremely complete team had a fantastic game plan for the Washington football team that the Giants will absolutely not be able to duplicate. I think is going to look very similar at least for the Giants on offense that we saw last week against them in Denver where they put up 13 points.
It might be even worse this time around tonight. And you know I don't know if I want to over be overconfident watching this offense but I think they're gonna be just fine tonight. I know you don't I'm not saying they're gonna be high. And I'm higher than most.
I'm rolling a big old. I don't give it. Well if you're talking like that then we literally are higher than most. I'm not a key.
But yeah minus three like you said I just because of the less insurance and it could be a scrap D NFC each game in the minus three and a half gets way more dangerous here. But I like that minus three so much man. And you know I think I worst case at the three point win for the football team. I think their defense man handles them and kind of does what the Denver Broncos did last week if not even worse to their offense.
Bingo. Now I do not want to say that the game last week against the Chargers was flooky. But if they don't have those QB issues they don't have those things happen. It's a little bit they can stick to the game script a little bit more.
I think that game's different and we talked about it too yesterday. The Chargers got Anthony Lynn out of there. They lose that game nine times out of 10 last season in any season before. So the Chargers are very very very different and the football team.
I think they just had a few too many jabs in the side that caused them to be people. I think they take this game by four plus. No question in my mind do your line shopping. Find the football team minus three and hammer the shit out of it.