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Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, ladies and gentlemen, degenerates, gamblers, NFL fans, Buffalo Bill fans, everyone in between far and wide. Welcome in to episode 93 of the Talking to Line Podcast and as always, hey, thank you so much for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with a crew on this beautiful Monday of NFL analysis bets and more. Now, before we get into all of that and discuss plenty of stuff today, please take a few moments too. Smash that subscribe button on whatever platform you are currently ingesting the TTL pod on.
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Ladies and gentlemen and beautiful gambling people, NFL fans and once again, everyone in between joining us on today's show. I'm your humble host, Colton, cold 45, Soroka, and it is my pleasure to get things kicked off today. Once again, thank you so much for joining us on this fourth installment of the NFL special edition of the TTL pod. If you just stumbled upon us here, maybe going through Twitter, maybe going through YouTube, hey, welcome.
We cannot thank you enough for stopping on by listening to a couple of guys talk about everything they know in regards to the NFL and the Buffalo Bills. Well, I keep saying a couple of guys that keep saying the crew, the TTL crew, all of this. Well, let me make it an official crew on this beautiful Monday with a man sitting to my left, a young man who is thrilled that his white socks seem to finally be back in good working order. The injuries appear to be healing.
The Green Bay Packers appear to be on another Super Bowl run. We'll see what all happens and where his opinions lie, but for now, let's bring him on in for episode 93 of the TTL pod. Ladies and gentlemen, the man, the myth, the degenerate gambling legend himself, Mr. Riley, R Max, Magnuson.
Barter, how you doing over there today, pal? My man, I can't be doing too much better. We've got a nice fresh Monday. We've got a week's worth of NFL action to dive into.
I'm excited about today's team. We've got a few other teams this week that I'm pretty juiced to talk about. We've got some good teams coming up this week. The dog days are some, the dog days of summer are rolling right along, and it's treating me well, my friend.
I don't know about you. Not too shabby. A lot of people like to, I think, we're getting into fall here now in the August. We still got another month of summer, everybody relax.
We still got good weather on the horizon. Don't be breaking out the hoodies out of the closet just yet, everybody relax just for the time being. My Sun-toned skin here over the weekend will tell you that fall is a little ways away still. That is very correct, speaking of how was your trip to the beach over the weekend there on Saturday, pal?
My man, it was pretty damn nice. My girlfriend and I neglected to realize that it's been about two years since we've had some good sun exposure like that. A little bit like a lot of stupid deaths. My front is looking a lot better than my back is.
That'll tell you the story on that. There you go. Where are your sunscreen kids? Any Aloe Vera companies looking to sponsor an upcoming podcast, we got the man for you right here.
Hit us all. No, business. Talk in the line.com. Outside of that.
Ladies and gentlemen, we keep talking about it. What do we got coming up for you guys here today? First things first, if you haven't looked at the title, if you didn't know, I don't know why you wouldn't at this point. But today's team of the day is the Buffalo Bills.
Quite an improvement in the 2020 season for the Buffalo Bills from 2018 and 2019. Still have kind of that core group of guys. I've added a few more guys in there. But now I do believe that they officially have the core that they're going to try and build around and also make a very, very solid Super Bowl run this year.
But we'll get into all of that. We'll also get into their full lineup, their coaching staff. We'll talk about their entire schedule, break it down week by week. We'll give you a full betting preview.
We'll talk about their win total, their weekly betting lines, their weekly total lines. Everything you need to have a successful season betting on the Buffalo Bills in 2021. Then we'll dish out our best fantasy advice in regards to each of their positional groupings. We'll even talk about the defense and let you know where we'll be targeting them in our fantasy drafts and maybe even potentially later on in the season on the waiver wire in the segment we like to call, start, stash or pass.
So make sure you stick around for all of that action. But for now, strap in tight. Get your notepad and pin out because we are about to cover so much information in this loaded episode about everything Buffalo Bills. So without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, let's get in to the first segment of the Buffalo Bills.
If you will, the first segment of every NFL special edition, how they've been going so far with the full team breakdown and coaching staff breakdown. Now, let's get things underway here, partner. All right. First things first.
If you guys haven't been here before, we take a look at some of what we take a look at the offense and the defense and the coaching staff, but we also take a look at first things for some of the key additions and losses on the offensive side of the ball, go through all of the defense and then do the exact same thing for the defense. So kicking things off. When I talk about some of the key losses here offensively for the Buffalo Bills going into 2021. Now, not crazy loss here.
Andre Roberts for the wide receiver position, but they did have a what I would consider a substantial loss. They did lose John Brown. Also, solid wide receiver slot receiver. I told you before the show.
I really enjoyed having him on my fantasy lineup last year. He definitely benefited from the arm of Josh Allen. And I do believe that there's another man in this offense who will talk about in a little while at the wide receiver position who's going to benefit just like John Brown did. But we're not talking about that yet.
They lost Brian Winters at Wright Guard, Lee Smith and Tyler Croft. Both tight ends. Ty Newton. Yeah, I mean, a lot of those are depth.
The depth loss is here and kind of the same thing with the offensive additions and maybe a one or two that are going to be a little bit higher than depth filling here. As you mentioned, John Brown, on the way out, they brought back in. Mr. Emmanuel Sanders off the free agent list there.
He's going to slide and have a big role, I think, here for the Buffalo Bills. And they brought in your former man or, you know, your former non man, Mr. Mitz Trubisky to fill that back up quarterback role. Yes, sir.
Well, for the Bills sake, let's hope that they won't be this year. Only one set of titties, Mitch gets to kiss now and that is Mrs. Trubisky. All right, fair enough also.
I'm moving right along. Couple of my partner mentioned a couple offensive linemen, death losses. They brought back in Bobby Hart and Forrest Lamp, Wright Tech, Left Guard, and then Jacob Hollister to fill a couple of those backup tight end roles. And then the other depth guy that's probably not going to be taking a bulk of the carries, but he's going to, you know, find some work here in there's Matt Breda and the offensive, excuse me, and the jury will be in the draft.
The offensive pickups weren't too deep. They picked up three offensive linemen later in the rounds and one wide receivers. So nothing to write home about in the draft as far as the offensive side goes. And really, the biggest one here is Manuel Sanders.
You talked about John Brown and Manuel Sanders is probably going to fill a lot of the things that he did. So that's obviously a nice pickup. I do like him, you know, kind of the same way I like John Brown. So I'm pretty happy as if I'm thinking about this guy, but I'm going to be in the draft.
I'm pretty happy as if I'm a Bills fan having Manuel Sanders in the building this year, my friends. I 150% agree with you. That is the peg that goes in the hole that I was mentioning with John Brown. I was one of the main things you hit on there.
Huge, huge addition having a Manuel Sanders. Actually, Warren Sharp brought it to my attention that a Manuel Sanders hasn't had a top tier passer in his entire career for the most part outside of Jubries, but then Jubries. And that was about it. So now he gets an elite elite quarterback, which I think that you can say that now about Josh Allen and he, in my opinion, has more upside than John Brown did.
And we saw great, great production, not only fantasy wise, but also just regular stats wise when he was healthy. Now that's going to be the key to it was big factor for John Brown staying healthy. He was out for quite a few games. That's also going to be a factor for Manny.
But I don't think Emmanuel Sanders is going to be able to do that. They just got to be good. They just need to be better. Yeah, they get hit behind the line of scrimmage way too.
Dog on often and I can't tell you the last time that there has been a. Valuable, I guess would be the good word fantasy player off of that offensive line. Right. I agree with the offensive team.
Sure. And it's not really like a one specific fix either. I think it's a lot of different things. I just, you know, the offensive run blocking.
It's, you know, a lot of different things. It's just running blocking. It's, you know, determining whether or not you lean heavily on one of these rungbacks as opposed to a committee, which is kind of what they did last year with Moss and Singletary. Do you lean heavier on one of the guys?
Hopefully get them into a sort of a rhythm that you like to see whether you're a Bill's fan or a fantasy owner. And adding that to that mix. I don't know if that spells maybe that's just a, you know, a hand cuff for them, a little bit of a depth pickup there or if they're just going to go full fledged into a full committee. I don't know.
I'm interested to see what happens. But like you said, they just need to be better. Plain and simple. Yeah, plain and simple.
That's what it comes down to. I mean, we've obviously see now from 2020 that their passing game has taken shorts and bounds. I think that it continues to do so. I think that they're just fine.
I think that young man Gabriel Davis in a wide receiver playing opposite of Stefan Diggs is going to be huge for that team. Also, he actually led the team in receptions last year. If I'm not mistaken, was very, very solid in the red zone short of a couple of weird drops or things. Oh, and I'm going to say who led the team in the reception.
I was Diggs. Was it Diggs? I thought that Diggs led in two categories outside of that. No.
What was the category that Gabriel Davis led in them? Not sure. Well, there was a category he did that 127 catches. Yeah, he did lead in a category.
Maybe it was Red Zone catches. I know it was something in catches, but I know I read that I'm not just making that up out of my ass, but Gabriel Davis is a very, very solid option as well. Cole Beasley will see what's all up with him. Obviously hasn't had a ton of fantasy value year over year over the last few years, last few seasons.
But you never know, we could see. I still definitely think he's going to be a very solid option for Josh Allen in those eight, 10, 11 yard routes, those quick out routes for sure. Yeah, I agree with you there. I mean, I hope we're not going to dive into what he's talking about right now, but there is a lot of distraction as far as him be easily kind of taking a lot of the media spotlight.
Maybe that takes a lot of the pressure off the rest of this offense because we haven't really seen these guys in the news as far as sports media is concerned. But yeah, I think Cole Beasley is going to be as far as on the field, Cole Beasley of what we've seen year in and year out. So I don't expect any drop off. I don't expect him to have any, you know, excel here to have a career year or anything like that.
I think he's going to be cool. Beasley like we know and come to expect over the last few years here. I would have to agree with you. So that kind of kind of gives you a look on the running back in the wide receiver room there just a little bit.
And then obviously we'll talk about that way more in depth once we get into the fantasy analysis and start stash or pass. But we also have to tie it into another key contributor for Josh Allen is Dalsa Knox. They have a solid, solid, solid connection. And I think we see that only continue to improve here into this season.
One of his favorite targets in the red zone. I mean, you saw the hot rod, the consistent celebrations all the time. I mean, those guys have a special connection and I think that only continues to improve here. So that's kind of outlook on the tight end as far as that.
They don't really have much other depth or anybody else to write home about. I just think that connection continues to get stronger. And then as far as the offensive line goes, not looking the worst in the league, not looking the best in the league. I think they'll be able to provide solid protection for Josh Allen.
But the biggest question mark once again is they go, are they going to be able to run block? Yeah, no question about it. I mean, the advantage that they do have is that they're returning all the same guys that they had from last year. So you hope that they improve on all of their issues, but especially like you mentioned, they're a run blocking scheme.
And then going back to, you know, put my thoughts on Dawson Knox. He's coming into his third year. So I have to imagine he's going to have a nice step up here. And then Josh Allen also his completion percentage to those tight ends was not his biggest strength, you would say.
So I think he's going to need to improve there. So another thing that's not really one specific fix. It's a couple different things there. So I do expect us to pick things up.
Otherwise, they could be shipping around kicking around the tires on another option come 2022. But I think we see a big step up from this run blocking game from the offensive line. No question. Absolutely.
I would kind of disagree with you on the Dawson Knox and the things I think a lot of that was due to title craft. I think any title craft out of there and making Dawson knocks putting all their chips in that table. Obviously, I think that that's kind of what led to a lot of those numbers. But we'll see what happens as far as that goes outside of that for the wide receiver position.
They also have one other guy who is slated to be on the depth start. Isaiah McKinsey. Not a whole lot. I can talk about him.
Not a whole lot. I can say about him, but just kind of somebody to be aware of as well that will be working into this wide receiver rotation. Yeah, for sure. But yeah, Gabriel Davis, if he's taking a big step up, that's going to be leaps and bounds for this offensive receiving core.
Absolutely. And wrapping up all of the offense, some key 2020 stats. Not 2021 2020 stats that I think you should know about the Buffalo Bills average six yards per play in 2020. They rushed on 38.29% of their plays and passed on 61.71% of them.
Their completion percentage was at 68.02% majority of that. Obviously being Josh Allen third down conversion percentage. You like to see this tick up just a little bit this year, but not bad by any means 46.64%. And then their red zone scoring very solid.
You could see a little bit of improvement, but that's just being picky 61.04% scoring in the red zone. So very solid across the board for this bill's offense. They are now fully in the Sean McDermott Brian Dabel system. Brian Dabel has done absolutely terrific work with this offense.
There's nobody that can disagree with that. So I think we see even more improvement here, but we'll talk about some of the improvement. We think and stuff like that when we kind of get into the full schedule here in a minute. But let's quickly get into the defense.
So you guys know everybody on the defensive side of the ball and who they're returning, who they got rid of everything in between defensively for the Bills. Now I kick things off with the key losses for the offense partner. Why don't you go ahead and let the kind of viewers out there know who the Buffalo Bills lost going into the 2021 season. Well, partner, much like the offensive losses that you mentioned that this Bills defense did not have any major losses.
They lost some depth guys here. They lost a few guys that they didn't have one guy that started more than nine games that they lost. Trent Murphy started nine games that would you would say as far as games started as their biggest loss. Aside from that Josh Norman, Quentin Jefferson, they lost both of those guys, Dean Marlowe, three and four games started between those three guys.
Each and then EJ games they lost did not play games since 2018. So not much of a loss there. So I'm the defensive side of the ball here. Not much not much to write home about as far as concerns are concerned here.
Weird sentence there, but Trent Murphy's 39 games is the biggest one off the edge. And I do believe you're about to let me know what their additions are. And they feel those holes pretty easily, I would say. Yes, sir.
That is one hell of a segue. I am about to tell you about the defensive additions for the Buffalo Bills. Now that all being said, one of the final guys you mentioned off the edge there, they did fill that hole with FA Obata. I want to make sure I'm pronouncing that right.
Not too sure. Hopefully I'm not butchering it, but he is an edge rusher got him in free agency. I think that's a solid pickup for them. Fill that hole and then Tyrell Adams, they also picked up out a free agency at the linebacker position.
Now they did have a pretty solid draft defensively as well. They got Gregory Rousseau, defensive end out of Miami and then also Carlos Bassam, Jr. and then another defensive end out of Wake Forest, two guys who had pretty solid defensive seasons closing out their college careers. I don't know that they get an immediate starting role.
They're both rookies. Obviously, I think that they'll get worked in eventually. They're going to need them obviously on the defensive side, but I don't know how quickly we will see them making immediate impact. Also added Demar Hamlin, Safety out of Pittsburgh, and then probably my favorite addition for the Buffalo Bills this season.
Rashad Wild Goose, quarterback out of Wisconsin. I mean, how can you not love a man with the last name of Wild Goose? Just absolutely electric ad there for the Buffalo Bills. So that's their key additions that they added defensively either via the draft or free agency or trade.
They didn't make any trades. All those defensive additions were via free agency or the draft. Now, as far as defense goes, they do have pretty much every single starter returning. There are a few guys that are potentially going to be new, but for the most part, this defense is going to look identical under Leslie Frazier as I did in 2020, 2019, and 2018.
Once again, another area that we both believe continues to improve. Very solid last season. You know, Josh Norman obviously got put on highlight reel a couple of plays this that and the other. You obviously have the DeAndre Hopkins.
I think that the Buffalo Bills are going to get put on a little less highlight real place. If I do say so myself, but before you take things away here, a couple key defensive stats before we actually dive into everything. 2021 from 2020, they allowed 5.6 yards per play to opponents defensively. Their opponent completion percentage was a little bit higher than you'd like to see at 64.12%.
Opponent third down conversion percent was at 41.70% and opponent red zone scoring was at 62.5%. So definitely some improvements can be made, but not the worst offense or worst defense. Right. I mean, like you said, man, I, you know, there's not too much to dive into here because it's a lot of the same guys, if not, especially the starting line, it is all the same guys.
And you know, we mentioned there's going to be some depth, depth plug into here, but I just plain and simple. I see improvements over 2020. This team has been together for a few years. The one thing you didn't mention, they get star Luke to Laley back off of COVID op out in 2020.
Oh, that is correct. He's going to be a depth play there at the, you know, the inside interior line there. So, you know, is it going to put them over the top? No, but it's a very, very solid depth play there.
But yeah, overall, I really like the front seven here, you know, get out of here for another year. I think he's going to make another big jump. So, you know, I really like this defense and yeah, I really think I'm not going to say they drive them over the top as I'm kind of mentioning here, but I really like this defense. I've got no issues with it.
Absolutely. I would 150% concur with you. Now, that all being said, let's go through some of the key guys per position wise here. Now, I don't know if me getting on this is kind of messing up.
So, if you could real quick go through the defense backs real quick, kind of some of the guys, the key guys there, per position, and then I'll be right back. I just want to open up one of these pages in a different half period. Okay, for sure. So, the obvious one here, Trevius White, everyone knows and loves Trevius White.
He's going to have another year where he is a, you know, one of the top five corners here in the league. So, you know, drop off at whatsoever there. You got Levi Wallace there on the other side. He's going to be a big factor.
And then the safeties, they mean they're very deep at the secondary spots here. Jordan Poier, Mike Ahide, two months today. I still miss Mike Ahide a quite a bit here being a former Packer pro bowler there. But Jordan Poier, that is, I mean, that's one of the better tandoms as far as safeties are concerned in the league.
So, you know, like I mentioned, I like that front seven, but man, do I like this secondary. They are going to torment teams and they're going to do it all season long and they're probably going to get better and better as the season wears on. As we've seen over the last few years, this secondary and this isn't, you know, it's sweeping statement or anything like that. But, you know, if the front seven can get ridiculous pressure on quarterbacks, then the secondary is going to look like, you know, the best secondary in the world.
So, I think we could see that I'm honestly a little nervous if I'm an opposing team here playing against this Bill's defense this year because if everything is right, they are one of the top five defenses in the league. If, you know, if they're kind of off, they're a little bit above a middle of the pack team here as far as the defense is concerned, but, you know, I think we get off and rolling here for this defense, my friends. I would more than 150% have to agree with you there, pardon him. Seems like I'm having one hell of a problem here.
I don't know if we are losing video or what we are doing here. I so apologize if we are having all types of issues video wise here today. I kind of checked it out and we were freezing up a little bit. So hopefully with any luck, we'll get some stuff back in action here.
I apologize guys with trying to have all this additional stuff on the screen and whatnot, you know, it tries to keep the stream going as best as it can. But obviously today, the old YouTube is not enjoying what we got going on. So, we'll try and keep pushing along as best as we can. But let me keep it rocking and rolling.
We're talking about the defense here. Sorry about the middle-middle-middle side track. However, you pretty much hit every nail on the head there. I think the secondary is going to be more than top notch for the Buffalo Bills, especially if the front seven can get that pressure that you were talking about.
I think that they will be able to do so this year, especially Leslie Frazier, Leslie Frazier again, another defensive coordinator who has consistently improved year over year over year. And I only think that continues to improve here today or this year rather. Right. It's both sides of all.
It's really, both units have just since 2018 since the New Year's Games have taken over. They've really taken up pretty decent strides forward. And I really don't know why we wouldn't see that again this year, my friend. I agree with you.
Well, let's keep it moving right along. That's a full team breakdown. You know everything offensive defensively, coaching staff, Sean McDermott, Brian Dabbel, Leslie Frazier, offensive defensive. The whole works.
There you go. You know everybody. You don't really want to be bored with all of that. You want to know what's going on in the schedule.
You want to hear about the betting. You want to hear about the fantasy. So let's dive right into it. Ladies and gentlemen, moving right along the second segment on the Buffalo Bills.
The full schedule breakdown. Now, it is going to be quite the season here for the Buffalo Bills. And I'm actually going to try and open up a little bit of additional action here. I don't know why it is messing up like this today.
It hadn't been messing up for me overall as we had just been consistently doing this. Doing the same stuff. Yeah, doing the same stuff over and over. And now all of a sudden the stream decides, hey, I don't like what you're doing.
Well, either way, we're just going to keep plugging right along here and seeing what we can do. So first things first, what is the Buffalo Bills 2021 schedule looking like? Well, it's looking pretty juicy. If I do say so myself for my friends, weeks one, two and three against Pittsburgh, Miami and the Washington football team followed up in four, five and six with the Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans.
They do have their by week in week seven. Then they play in week eight, nine and 10 the Miami Dolphins, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets followed in 11, 12 and 13 by the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots. Then you got 14, 15, 16 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers and once again, the New England Patriots, then wrapping up their season in week 17 and 18 with the Atlanta Falcons and the New York Jets. Now, right off the bat, jumping off the page at me partner, I believe that they get both wins over the Jets.
Right now, we will break it down fully here in just a moment. However, I do believe that we see at least 11 wins here to hear the season from the Buffalo Bills. I'm right there with you, my man. However, the problem is, is that their win total is right at 11 wins.
So we have a lot to discuss here and a lot to get into. So first things first, let's talk about their divisional opponents. Now, in my mind, and I'm really curious to hear your opinion on this as well because I think there is a couple of different ways that you could go here in the AFC East. Right now with the Dolphins, I think they get that.
I don't know if they get that week to victory. I think that they split right now. Obviously, it's way too early. I could totally change my mind, but I think that they split one in one with the Dolphins.
I also believe they split bare minimum one in one with the Patriots. Now, they might potentially, now that we're live on the show, go 0-2 to the Patriots. The more I think about it, I know that's high accusations. I know it's high accusations.
I know they're going to have to do a lot offensively, but there's just nothing in my mind that sees Bill Belichick, especially the way he was cutting checks this offseason, allow any team to do to them defensively, what every single team that they faced in the NFL did last season. So I think there's going to be some serious improvements, but I definitely lean more one in one, and then I see an easy 2-0 against the Jets. So overall, I'm seeing 4-2 here in division games. I think that they do still win the division, but I'm leaning a little bit of 4-2 season here from the Buffalo Bills within the AFC East.
What do you think of? I think worst case, absolute worst case we see 4-2 on the division. As you mentioned, we don't need to touch on it too much. I think they roll through the Jets in both games.
I'm kind of with you on the split against the Dolphins. I just am a big proponent of Miami's home field advantage. Early season, it's a little bit more of a toss-up, not getting that big, winter split the week before or the week after, and then going straight into Miami. Not seeing that, so maybe that's a little bit of an advantage compared to a week 10 visit to Miami, but I'm not going to say no-2 start against the Patriots like you are.
I mean, obviously you didn't call for that necessarily, but you're hinting at a possibility. I see at least a split there. I don't necessarily love the matchup for the Patriots. I am a lot higher on the Patriots this year, but I don't exactly as far as these two games are concerned, Bills Patriots.
I'm not in love with the matchup for the Patriots perspective. So I think at the worst case, you see 4-2, obviously the best case, I get very positive. They can go 6-0 clean sweep, but I'm going to call for 5-1. How about that?
Alright, so 5-1 for you, 4-2 for me. I think we got a little bit of a split. I think one way or another, they either sweep the Dolphins or the Pats. One way or another.
One way or another? Alright, well there you have our opinions as far as the Division games go, but they got eight other main games with two other Conferences this year. They are mainly facing in their outside eight games, the AFC South and the NFC South. Now for me, they go 6-2 in my opinion.
I believe that they get the win over the Texans, over the Jags, and they get their lickback last season from the Titans in the AFC South. I think something goofy is going to happen and that defense might be just a little bit too much for the Bills offense. I just think the Colts defense is a bad matchup for them. The Colts win that game.
As far as the NFC South goes, they get easy wins over the Falcons, Panthers and Saints. And then no question, I think the Buccaneers beat them by at least a touchdown and a half. I think I'm with you on 6-2. I'm definitely with you on the Bucks.
I believe that is a bad, like, rested disadvantage for them. They're coming off of a Monday Night game against going into Tampa. So I see that one being, if I'm penciling in one loss on their entire schedule, it's probably that one. So I think I'm with you on the 6-2.
I think they roll through the Falcons, Panthers and Saints much like you do. Now this may be recency bias, but I'm a little skeptical on the Colts now. After Carson Munson has some foot injuries, he's going to try and avoid surgery. That doesn't give me a lot of confidence as far as his season is concerned.
Given the issues that he's dealt with, from what I've seen, they're just hoping that he's healthy and maybe give it a few days. And he hopefully won't have to do surgery. Surgery or not, that doesn't sound good for him in that season as far as they're often concerned. And I don't like their backup options there.
So I could see 7-1, but I think one way, if I'm having a gun to my head prediction, I'm going 6-2, one way or another. They go 3-1 on each side, whether that's a loss to the Colts or the Titans. And then a definite loss against the Bucks. I agree with you at 150%.
But yeah, I'm glad you mentioned that about Carson Munson. That didn't really come into my mind. It's going to be a very big factor for what the Colts do this. Last week, they were a big part of a couple of the teams losing to them.
And now I don't know. I don't know yet. So both of us, one way or another, we both are thinking 6-2. Yeah, I'm glad we don't have to dissect on the Colts this week.
No kidding. Need a little bit more information about how we do that. But they have three remaining games outside of their six division games and eight non-division games against the Steelers, the Chiefs and the Washington football team. Now, my early leaners that they get to win over the Steelers, but looking ahead, the Steelers actually have one of the better defenses in regards to passing.
And this is a mouthful of all we say. In regards to rushing and passing efficiency. Right. So they're very, very good.
They're actually one in passing and five in rushing. So they're very solid, very top notch. I think that's going to be a tough matchup for the Bills. I think they can get out and get the win.
But nonetheless, I still think it's going to be a very, very difficult game to open up the season. The Chiefs, I don't think that they win that game. I think that they lose that game. But then maybe potentially get the win in the AFC Championship game.
We'll talk about that too. And then I think they get the easy win over the Washington football team. Actually, I don't want to say easy because I think WFT is going to surprise people this year with over the run and some of the tools that they've brought in both offensively and defensively. But I still think that they get that win.
So two in one in my mind and maybe one in two if something goofy happens with the Steelers. That's what I'm thinking. What do you think of the outside three games? Yeah, I were honestly as aligned as we can be on these three games here.
I think we get a loss to the Chiefs and then I'm calling for wins against the Steelers in Washington. But I don't think they're going to be easy. I don't like those defensive matchups necessary for the Bills. But I like the Bills defensive matchups for those two offenses enough to give me to lean towards the Bills winning those games.
I'm not very high in the Pittsburgh offense. And who knows what we're going to see from Washington's offense? Yeah, could not agree with you more on those two plays because those honestly loom really large for me. And if they do not, let's say for instance they go right with how we're predicting.
Well maybe six and oh five and one for you four and two for me. And then they go six and one in the outside division games. They could very easily become a 10 or 12 win team based on those two games right there. Either in a 10, 11 or a 12 win team based on how they do against the Steelers in the Washington football team.
And I think those games in week one and in week. Let me tell you just to be 150% sure in week three didn't want to miss speak there. I think those two games are some of the most important ones on the schedule. And not to mention you sandwich Miami a division rival in between those two games in Miami.
In Miami. I, Corumba Buffalo, talk about a start to the season. Well not to mention that. When they play Washington it looks like Washington's got a Thursday night game the week before.
So they've got an extra three days to prepare for Buffalo. So hey man, I don't know. I don't know either. It's going to be very interesting.
But both of me and you it looks like are thinking that those two games, those outside division and outside main eight games are going to kind of be where the Bills season is made or broke. Yeah, I mean, I think they come out of Gates looking decent, but I feel like we're going to be seeing some stories like even if they're two and one like, hey, is this the, you know, where's this bill? Team at and it's I think it's just going to be because of the three matchups that they have to kick it off. I think so too.
Coming in to 2021 versus their 2020 schedule. Sure. They faced a pretty tough schedule in 2020. I mean, not actually it was pretty tough on tough.
I mean, they faced all the AFC West, the NFC West, great defenses up and down both of those eight teams and offenses. So I mean, they were in some battles across the board. You remember the one with the Cardinals. Remember the one with the Seahawks.
You remember with the Patriots. I mean, they had so many field goal and one score games last year that it's incredible that they got the 13 wins that they did. Yeah, no kidding. I mean, they get a little bit of a breather as far as catching the NFC West last year as opposed to this year, the way they're about to look.
And now the NFC South looking like it's going to be down. Obviously, in my opinion, I think the AFC East themselves is a lot better top to bottom. I mean, I think the Jets are going to be bad, but they're not going to be as bad as they were. And obviously, we're already talking about the Patriots taking a big step up.
So, you know, across the board, I think it is a little bit easier, but it's not so easy that we're going to see a, you know, a 16-in-one type season here, in my opinion. I think I agree with you no doubt. Well, we're kind of talking about it. We've been talking about the wind total.
We've been hitting it at everything. You know, this is a gambling show every day at 10 a.m. Central Standard Time Daily. And we have to talk about anything betting.
So, let's get into it, ladies and gentlemen. Holy cow, the moment you've all been waiting for the betting preview for the Buffalo Bills. Now, we do have each one of their weekly lines as well as their weekly totals. We'll talk about all of that.
We'll talk about their win totals, odds to make the playoffs, conference, Super Bowl, all of that stuff. So, strap in. Here we go. Actually, as I mentioned it now, looks like the video is all back in Rock and Roll.
So, sometimes our streaming software are wonderful friends at YouTube and the additional, our wonderful friends at Sharp Football Analysis. And then the additional shit we use all kind of does a little bit of this shit. And that's how it looks on the inside of my computer. Yep.
And that doesn't do for prime optimal streaming quality. No, it doesn't. But it does look like we are in shape now. So, let's talk about bets.
First things first, ladies and gentlemen. How about some 2021 weekly betting lines? Now, as far as the spread goes for the 2020 season or the 2021 season, they are favored by an average of minus 4.9 points. So, about set 4.5 is actually 4.9.
It's almost favored by five points in their games. One, two and three weeks. One, two and three against Pittsburgh, Miami, and the aforementioned Washington football team. They're favored by six points, three and a half points and seven and a half points.
Once again, favored by 14 points in week four. They come in for their first underdog appearance in week five against the Kansas City Chiefs plus four and a half. You kind of anticipate that. And then week six closing out their early season before their buy.
They come in as two and a half points favorites to the Tennessee Titans. That game is also played in Tennessee. Interesting. Now, that all being said, they come off of their buy week in week eight, nine and ten against the Dolphins, Jags and Jets.
Favored by seven points, six and a half points and seven points respectively. Then 11, 12 and 13. They got the Colts, the Saints and the Patriots. Favored by six, one and a half and seven points all again respectively.
Then last but certainly not least, their last five games of the season against Tampa Bay, Carolina, New England, Atlanta, and New Jersey. They are favored or against Tampa Bay. They are dogs, four point dogs and then favored the rest of the season. Nine and a half against the Panthers, three and a half against the Patriots, eight and a half against Atlanta and six and a half against the Jets.
So, the books are thinking early that the bills are going to continue to improve much like we are. Yeah. Partner, are you buying a lot of these minus seven, minus six, minus seven and a half? Is this the books buying in too much to how well the bills played last year?
I'm going to try and be tricking the public a little bit. Are we going to see a lot of those field goal games, one score games again and the bills really aren't going to be covered in their spread? Or are they going to return to that ETS dominance that I'll talk about in a little while here? Yeah, I mean, it's interesting because as far as their home lines, it really plays into what we've been talking about, how home field advantage is going to have a bigger role this year than it did last year.
And of course, you know, you get a 13 and a three team coming in in 2020 coming back now with full stadiums. The Bills Mafia is going to be a mad house over in Buffalo. You don't have a single game right now where they're favored by less than six points at home. And then on the flip side, you know, the road lines don't really play as much into what we're talking about as far as home field advantage.
So that's where I'm really interested to see how things play out because their dogs in Miami, in Nashville, and New Orleans, and this was before, you know, some of this issues that have been happening with the Saints. So I'm interested to see how the road schedule plays out. Obviously, you know, as you kind of alluded to you anticipate them being dogs in Kansas City and Tampa, but, you know, those three games there in Miami, Tennessee and New Orleans, that really what I'm looking for as far as, you know, are they going to come in and slap those guys in the mouth or are those three games? Or are those three, maybe some trap lines there?
I would have to agree with you on everything there. Now, one thing I also wanted to mention in kind of regards to all of the weekly lines, we also got the totals. Okay. Now, every single total line for the Buffalo Bills is at 49 and a half or under, except week five and six against the Chiefs and Titans where it's at 54 and a half and 51 and a half.
Then it's at 51 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. So a little bit interesting there. Maybe they have a huge game, not too sure. Maybe it's a shootout.
Then week 11, 51 and a half against the Colts. So I think the books are thinking yet again to shoot out there, 52 against the Saints in week 12. And then that, that all does it. Is that no against Tampa?
Another 53 and a half. Sorry I got to get the old glasses fixed here. One other that really interests me because all the other ones are right around that 49 and a half, 48 and a half, 49. All the other ones are the only other one that really, really intrigues me outside of those big totals.
Week 18 at home against the Jets, 44 and a half point total. I don't know if that's leaning the Jets absolutely having a terrible game because you look and in week 10, it's at 49. It's at 48 points. So right around pretty consistently for where the Bills total is for the entire season week to week.
But then it drops almost four total points, three and a half points. What do we think there's something that's going to be a key contributing factor? Yeah. I'm wondering if that's the books anticipating that the Bills are going to have the Division wrapped up.
Maybe a certain playoff seed wrapped up and they can rest. Having said that, that wasn't the case this past year. I believe they're backups combined to put up around 56 points themselves. So who knows, man, that is a weird one.
That's my best rationalization though. Yeah, I'm not all too sure about that one either, but we'll sure let you guys know. We'll see how it rolls out. Maybe we have a play 24 weeks on Jets and Bills game total, but that's it for the totals for now.
Barter, I've kind of hinted at where I'm lying. How about we do it? Your way to early week one pick. Bills in Buffalo versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.
And it's minus six. That's tough one, man. I really think the Bills are going to handle this one just fine. But as we've kind of mentioned that Pittsburgh defense is no joke.
And I don't think they're going to be a joke this year again. I did mention I like the Bills defense to hold on the Pittsburgh offense, but you know, I might, this is one of the early week one picks that we've made now four of them now. This is the one that I probably would stay away from, but I guess I'm leaning towards Pittsburgh just because I think it could be a close game. And the Bills might have to grind it out.
I think the Bills are the better team than win this game. But like I'm saying, I think it might be a grinder. I am literally right where you are. I mean, I couldn't say that any better.
You know, I don't know if the Bills were so damn good at this last year. And I'll tell you about all their 2020 trends here in just a minute, but I don't know. I mean, it's just being touchdown spreads have me really, really nervous for the Bills ATS-wise. And like you said, this would typically be a game I'm going to stay away from because I think everybody and their dogs are going to run to the Bills.
Mine is six, open up the season, start hot yada yada yada go on and on and on. And I think it's going to be a grind out game. But do I have enough faith in Pittsburgh and having all their guys back on defense? I don't know.
They're going to have to score points. They can't just go all their points defensively. So it's a little bit of a question mark there. But if I had to go to my head, I'd take Pittsburgh Steelers plus six and I would see it.
And if I was making a different bet, I might take Bills to win by one to six or something like that, like a weird random side better, something like that, I think the Steelers are just going to be a stay away for a team for me until I figure out who they are honestly. I 150% concur. I don't know what in the world that offense is going to show up like this year. So no idea.
But we're not talking about the Steelers. We're talking about the Bills and how about now talking about the Bills and their 2020 ATS and over under trends. Well, I'm so glad you asked because I told you that this season they're favored by about five points in every single game. They were only favored by about three points minus two point nine in 2020.
So a very severe jump, almost three point jump there kind of wild to see. We'll see what happens. But in 2020, I told you they were very solid. They were 11 and five ATS overall, eight and four ATS as a favorite and three and one ATS as a dog.
At home, they took care of business six and two ATS, five and one ATS as a favorite and two and one ATS as a dog. And then on the road, they were a little bit struggle prone, four and three ATS overall, three and three ATS as an away favorite and one and OTS as an away dog. So that away favorite number there might even further hammer home being a little bit tentative on running to the window on the Bills one and six there in week one. Just something to think about.
Now, over under it is a little bit weird. Some of these numbers are going to be a little bit, actually this one is never mind. I didn't delete that one from the previous analysis. This one is spot on.
This one's all good. So average 2020 line for the Buffalo Bills for their game total was at 48.9. So pretty consistent to what I was telling you, most every week is right at 48.5, 49.5 with a few of the games that look like they're going to be shootouts definitely being kicked up by the books because of that. They were 12 and four overall in the 2020 season.
And actually this is the first team I mentioned to you partner, first team over under WISES has actually had some serious concrete trends. The last three teams we've talked about, the Ravens, the Falcons and the Cardinals have all kind of just been right. Who knows? You don't really know.
But the Bills are an over team. They hit that over 48.5, 49.5 and I think I'll be back in it once again this year, five and three to the over at home, six and one to the over on the road, seven, five and one to the over as a favorite and five and one. That is including playoff games to the over as a dog, actually during the regular season, three and one to the over as an underdog. So overall, this team is an over team.
I think that they continue to be an over team. I wouldn't rush to the window super fast to be back in all of the overs. But I mean, if you're seeing it at 48.5, 49, it is definitely worth the play. Yeah, I think these overs, as you mentioned, I'm right in line with you on those.
They are going to be worth it and that's worth looking at. In immediate reaction as far as these spreads are concerned once again here, like you said, last year, minus 2.9 average line, take it all the way up around five. I'm wondering if this is going to be a trap team for the books weekend and week out where I'm thinking. Yeah, the more we talk about it, the more I think I'm going to have to take it back seat as far as their spreads are concerned as much as I like them.
And this isn't an entertainment on the Bills at all. I think they are that good. But these minus seven and a half, minus 14, they might not be worth handling there because even that minus seven and a half against Washington, I might like that as far as Washington plus seven and a half with the Bills take out three to four point win or something like that. Yeah.
I am all over that. I'm glad that I'm really glad that we decided to do this because not only does it make you guys smarter, it makes us smarter. We're able to talk through things like that and as we kind of build the blocks and go through the entire season previous, like, oh shit, maybe the books really are setting these touchdowns spreads because the Bills are going to have a great season. They're going to win.
They're going to be just fine. They'll make the playoffs. But maybe they're only going to be by the three, four, five points. Some of those key numbers that are going to come down.
I don't know, but in my mind, it sounds like in your mind, that's kind of where the season goes for the Buffalo Bills and maybe stay the hell away from them on the spread for the time being. Right. Because I think on top of it all, they've figured out how to win games. They're a team that is really good and they know how to win games, but I think they're going to have a lot more games that are more grinder games than the books are giving them credit for.
So, going to have to take a side seat and see how things play out. And if they're smoking teams, then maybe I'll eat my words and hammer a few bets on them. Sure. But for now, if you're with us, you tuned in for a reason.
You got to be with us. Hey, you heard it here first. Be a little tentative on the Buffalo Bills to open up the 2021 NFL regular season. Well, hey, everybody loves a good teaser.
Don't show. Well, I know I do. I'll tease anything anywhere, anytime. Any sport you give me, I'll do it.
And especially NFL football. And apparently, the Buffalo Bills will tease anytime you want them to in a six, seven and 10 point teaser. They hold a record of 15 and one in each of them. They're a team that you must add to your Sunday teaser.
If you're if you're like me, you're watching maybe the great, the legend, Doug Kazurian, discuss some things on the Daily Wager, maybe scrolling through the great Matthew Berry TMR and the great field gates and start finding your bell, discuss fantasy stuff for the day. And then maybe on the side, if you're like me, you build one of them bad boy teasers and you're trying to find that fifth fucking team to get it all out. Fucking team to get it over plus a thousand Buffalo Bills with that team, my friends. Buffalo Bills with that team.
I think I agree with it again, once you know, for 2021 here, even on top of what I was just saying, as far as some of these being trap lines, I don't think those teaser lines are going to be trap lines. I think I think if what I'm looking to do is correct as far as a few trap lines here, I think it's going to be real close misses as far as the spread is concerned. So they should be totally fine on the teaser once again. Yeah, and you buy into a six point teaser or seven point teaser and you're getting them at a pick them.
Yeah, you basically just taking the win. That's kind of what we're talking about. They're going to win these games. That's kind of the way everything's looking.
So maybe just maybe the Buffalo Bills are a teaser only team in the 2021 NFL season. Just maybe who knows, but you build your own things from the analysis that we have found and that we're giving you. We just give you the rabbit holes to dive down to. All right, my friends.
That's what we're here for. We're here for a mental vacation and to give you more rabbit holes than you know what to do with. So let's keep moving right along. Pardon?
Are the Bills going to make a missed a playoffs? They're going to make the playoffs. And the books seem to concur with you. Well, my friend, minus 410 to make the playoffs and plus 300 to miss the playoffs.
So definitely looks like what we're saying here is going to be just the case. They should win the division. They should have no problem. However, go ahead.
No, I was going to. It's really tough to play devil's advocate on that too. There's Josh Allen getting hurt is really the only way that I could spend that. Mitch Trebische has to carry the load.
That would be the only way that I see the missing the playoffs. Yeah, I would 150% agree with you, but they have to win games in order to make the playoffs. And I told you a little while back ago, if you're here for the start of the show, win total for the Bills set at 11, the sticks. Now, boy, oh boy, I have in you guys.
I have struggled with this since I looked at this last week. Now I reread through it again last night. One sharp football analysis, 2021 season preview again. Shout out.
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much for your hard work and everything you do.
You are the man. And if people are giving you the proper credit, you deserve, you know, we might have been seeing that around here there. We do apologize for that. We will continue to give you the credit that you deserve for all the hard work you put in.
But I'll get off of that soapbox. Moving right along. We do appreciate that because I read back through all of that and it confused me even more. Thanks a lot.
You know, I see this team being a 12 win team. Now they got the 13 wins last year and they were in so many freaking tight games. I think they're in those tight games again this year. And as we're talking about the lines, that's evidence of that.
And it takes me back once again to the Steelers and the football team. If they lose those two games, give me the under. If they win those two games, give me the over. And the books are pretty much thinking the way I'm thinking over and under right now.
Minus 110 for both of them. Okay. Where you lean and partner? I don't know where to go here because in my mind, it's literally the Steelers in the football team.
Okay. Week one and week three that is going to just completely how we game. I'm less on the fence off as you as are you. I am way on the side of the over here.
I see one way or another. There's a few different paths to the cash to the under. But in my mind, one way or another, as long as Josh down is healthy, I think they catch this over. I mean, I said at the very worst, they go four into the division.
Optimistically, it's not that crazy. They go six and no. Not that crazy. They go four and no on the AFC South.
Not that crazy. I think they go three in one in the AFC South or NFC South. Excuse me. And, you know, the Chiefs in the box are obviously the two toughest games in the schedule.