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Good morning, good afternoon, good evening. Ladies and gentlemen, degenerates, gamblers, fans of the NFL Shield. Cincinnati Bengals fans, anyone in between may have left outside of that far and wide. Welcome in to episode number 96 of the Talking the Line podcast.
And as always, hey, hey, hey, hey. Thank you so much for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with a crew on this beautiful August 5th, 2021. Soon it will return to business as usual and I will get to say this beautiful day of bets to you. But before it does, we have plenty of NFL special editions to bring to you and most importantly, today's The Cincinnati Bengals.
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Thank you so much for joining me and my partner on episode 96 of the TTL pod. Once again, I am your humble host, Colton, Cole, 45, Sroga, and that F for mentioned partner is about to join us for today's show. Now, he's as excited as I am about talking about these here since the nanny bangles today. We're big fans of Joe Burrow.
We got plenty of opinions, plenty of thoughts, plenty to banter about back and forth and also give you some key analysis, key trends, betting preview, everything in between. But we'll talk about all of that here in just a second. Let me bring in the man, the myth, the degenerate gambling legend himself, Mr. Riley, our Max Magnuson.
How are you doing over the NFL? My man, I'm doing pretty damn solid. As you mentioned, I'm pretty excited to talk about this since the nanny bangles team, despite the record that they've put out the last couple of years. You know, as you mentioned, we are big fans of Joe Burrow.
I think he's going to put up a solid season this year. We will see as far as the rest of the roster, but nonetheless, I'm pretty excited to get that deep into this team. For honestly, all four of our angles that we go into right here. 150% Hey, good tasting coffee over here on the side of the table this morning.
Cheers to you. If you got your Joe in hand this morning as well, quick extra sip. I mean, that was a sip of Joe. I mean, maybe it's five o'clock somewhere.
You know, if you're enjoying the opposite end of the spectrum, cheers to you as well. Little do you know I'm going to be falling out of this journal in a while because it's got a couple of shots of Bailey's in it. But nonetheless, we have a show coming at you. No, we are not drunk.
I don't plan on doing the show drunk unless something crazy would have happened. But that's not here or there. What's here and now are the Cincinnati Bengals and today's NFL special edition on them. So Cincinnati Bengals, what to expect today.
If you've been to the NFL special editions before, you're a frequent flyer, if you will. Hey, you know what's coming. You know what's right around the corner. You know what's on tap here today.
If you haven't, quick recap, not recap really if you will summary of what is to come here today on Episode 96. When I talk about the offensive and defensive lineups, give you a 2020 little bit of a recap there. That's the correct use of the word recap. And then a 2021 outlook will also look at the coaching staff for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Then we'll dive deep into their 2021 schedule. We'll also segue away from there into a full betting preview. We'll talk weekly lines, weekly game totals, season, win total, everything you need to cash some tickets on the Cincinnati Bengals this season. Then, of course, you know we're fantasy nerds at heart.
So we're going to bring you our best fantasy advice advice for the Cincinnati Bengals. Goodness gracious. I do believe that they have quite a good amount of value when it comes to fantasy wise. A couple of key positions though that we'll have to talk about, but across the board.
Very solid fantasy value. So if you're looking for some of that, make sure you stick around for the very end of the NFL special edition today for the start stash or pass segment the TTL cruise fantasy advice segment. After we wrap up all of the Cincinnati Bengals talk, then hey, you guys give us your time. You give us your support.
You're following. You take your hard earned time and spend it with us. We can't thank you enough. So I always got to pay it forward.
Pay it back to you guys and doing so with my motivation minutes. Give you a little extra inspiration. Motivation gets you about your day today. Gonna be talking, giving you a little message on not rushing so much in your life, slowing things down a little bit.
So if you need that message, maybe I struck a chord with you already. Make sure you stick around for the very end of today's show. Cult motivation minutes will be coming to you live. But for now, ladies and gentlemen, part of anything I missed anything I didn't discuss.
Anything you got to get off your chest here 10.07 a.m. Central Standard Time for we dive into the Cincinnati Bengals. I think I'll set dive in. I mean, all right, my friend.
Well, let's get things rocking and rolling here. No waste of time on this side of the table either. So first things first, let's get into the Cincinnati Bengals team breakdown. Now, as always, we will be starting with the offensive side of the ball and starting with some of the key losses and the key additions offensively as well for the Bengals.
So kicking things off, I will take the ball, if you will. Go ahead. Full pun intended there with some of the key losses. Better bills on intended.
Yeah, yeah, it was totally intended. Either way, key losses coming on the offensive side of the ball here for Cincinnati this season. Now quite a few guys, some that are going to matter more. Some that really are going to matter as much.
I'm going to tell you about them all anyhow. Now, with the wide receiver position, they had three key losses. They lost AJ Green, John Ross and Alex Erickson. Erickson, not the hugest, hugest, largest loss that they had overall, but still a little bit of a depth need there that they sent packing.
John Ross obviously didn't produce as much as he had on his first few seasons in the league. However, I do think we see a little bit of a backfill for him as well. And then AJ Green, they said, hit the bricks, get on out of here, go on to Arizona. And I think that was okay for them due because as we'll talk about a little later, he was not producing at the AJ Green numbers that we were using.
And I believe that we would see as he came back healthy finally in the 2020 season. They did lose running back to Yavani Bernard, but not to worry, we'll talk about that running back room. And it does now look like Mr. Joe Nixon is going to be taking that bad boy over, but we'll talk about that here in just a minute as well.
And then took a few shots at the offensive line, led a couple of guys walks, Alec Redman, Wright Guard, BJ Finney, Center, and Bobby Hart, Wright Tackle. And then just a few other key players, Cief and Carter, they let walk it tight in, Ryan Finley back up quarterback, and then hey, kickers are humans too. They let Randy Bullock hit free agency and they did pick up a kicker in the draft, which I don't know if the Bengals are looming a lot on this kicker here, but it seems like if you're going to draft a kicker, he better produce very early. So, harder, why don't you indulge us all on some of the offensive additions, both via trade agency or trade agency?
Yeah, free agency, the trade market and via the draft going into the 2021 season here for the Bengals. So a lot more trimming the fat on your end of things. They did fill a few holes, but you know, relying on a lot of the previous depth that they had overall, biggest free agent acquisition and the really only notable one on the offensive side of the ball is Riley Reid. Going to be at the offensive tackle position.
That is a massive addition for an offensive line that is very, very, very underperformed over the last couple of years. And then obviously, Jamar Chase out of LSU in the first round, number five, overall pick getting paired back up with Joe Burrow. I am so excited to talk about him and get into his season this year. And then as far as the rest of the draft, they got some offensive line depth, Jackson Carmen out of the second round out of Clemson, Deontay Smith, Oak Tackle, and the fourth round, Trey Hill Center out of Georgia in the sixth round, and Chris Evans running back out of Michigan in the sixth.
So those two top two additions there, obviously Jamar Chase and then Jackson Carmen could be important, but that Riley Reid addition is something that's important. And obviously they did do it. So I'm excited to see what Riley Reid brings to this team. They paid, you know, not over the top dollars for him, but a nice pretty 7.5 million average for him.
So they are definitely relying on him to be an anchor for that offensive line. And Joey Burrow is going to need him as we will talk about on its backside on the left side of that offensive line. But before we get into the offensive line and all of the offensive side of the ball, couple of key 2020 stats I'll let you guys know about as I always do in regards to the Cincinnati Bengals. As far as yards per play goes, they averaged 4.9 yards last season.
They rushed the ball on 39.5, 2% of their plays and passed the ball on 60.4, 8% of their plays. Completion percentage across the board for quarterbacks for the Bengals was at 64.03%. Third down conversion percentage was at 36.15%. So we're definitely going to want to see that uptake here this season.
If the Bengals are going to have any type of success, we'll definitely talk about that too. And then they got to uptick that red zone scoring only at 50%. We will also touch on that heavily as well as it will be one of the key factors to the Bengals success here as well in 2021. Outside of that, those are some of the key stats.
Let's get right on into the offensive side of the ball here, outlook into 2021. As far as things go here, partner, as you kind of alluded to, this offensive line does look decent going into 2021. They don't look like they're going to blow the doors off of anybody by any means. But kind of a quick glance, quick looking.
Any names jumping off the page for you. I know you're a big fan of Riley Reef there. Obviously, maybe fan of the Riley's who knows. Of course.
Either way, anybody jumping off the page there at you and overall kind of what your thoughts on this offensive line going into 2021. Yeah, I mean, assuming the entire offense, all positions stay healthy. The story for this offense is going to be the offensive line, whether they, if they're extremely improved in this offense, might be really fucking good. If not, it could be some growing pains and it could be some issues for everyone and might make a lot of these guys that ooze talent might make them look pretty pedestrian.
So, you know, Jackson Carmen going to be on the right side as well. It looks like Riley Reef might be on the right side of the line here still undecided, at least from what I'm seeing here. But they're going to have to see some improvements from it because it was their glaring hole on both sides of the ball. You know, the defense wasn't fantastic, but they're often the line was clearly the weak spot of that team.
So if we see that again, then, you know, we could be seeing more of the same from the Bengals this year. Yeah, and I hope that's not the case. They got to keep him protected. They got to keep him healthy.
And one of the key things was not only that the rushing attack wasn't able to be their post Joe mixing his injury, then Joe Burrow had to take a lot of that workload on couldn't really get any deep dropbacks. The deep dropbacks also were a glaring hole for this offense and keeping Joe Burrow protected. So rushing game and passing game took serious hits because of this offensive line. So yeah, partner, it is going to need to definitely be fixed, but the jury's still out.
We don't know. We won't know until week one here when the Bengals go in or actually play in Cincinnati against the Vikings, but we'll talk about the whole schedule here shortly. Now, as far as the most important position on the field, right, friend, we talked about him enough. Now, let's mention him.
Joe Burrow obviously had the rough ACL MCL tears last season, missed the second half of the season, most of the second half of the season. And, you know, I'm really looking forward to him in his sophomore year, seeing what he comes back and does, you know, we'll talk about his fantasy value somewhere. We might be targeting him, but I think that he produces here for the Bengals. I mean, he has to.
He has to produce also for Zack Taylor's sake, which we'll also talk about. But, man, oh man, I think that Joe Burrow has a great sophomore season and I think we see him get protected and I think we see him slide a lot more and protect himself, if you will. Yeah, 100% man. And, you know, his success might again fall on this offensive line because the talent in this receiver room is off the charts and obviously you get him paired up with Jamar Chase once again.
That's unbelievably, you know, high ceiling for these two guys here. But yeah, as far as the offensive line goes, they have to protect Joe Burrow for his health's sake, for this offensive's sake, because one rare another Joe Burrow is going to help this team. It's just a matter of, can he excel this team into being actually pretty solid team or is he going to have to put his team on the back? He's scrambling all over the backfield like you mentioned, wasn't able to do too many deep drops as he'll do any of that action this year.
So, as far as Joe Burrow, he's not much of a question mark to me. It's really going to be a question of what is it, what is it exactly that he is going to have to do with superhero Joe Burrow where, you know, he's keeping them in games or is he going to be free and loose and actually going to be able to win them some games this year? I'm very high on Joe Burrow. I just don't know as far as what we're going to be able to see.
I'm very high on Joe Burrow and I would actually lean more towards him, not having to be a superhero and having to kind of play a little more free, a little more open. And that's because of some of these weapons and mainly this wide receiver room. Now you mentioned him Jamar Chase, you also have tee Higgins, tee mates team and back up again. And then you also have a Tyler Boyd.
I was getting there. I just had to fumble through a few file folders right there for a second now. Tyler Boyd, honestly, this is my most underrated under the radar wide receiver room in the entire NFL, mainly just because they're the Bengals. That's the only reason they don't get the respect.
I think Jamar Chase comes bursting out of the gate in his freshman year here. And then I think he had to say a great sophomore season. He was very solid. And also, Tyler Boyd is very dominant as well.
They also have all plenty of fantasy value. So we'll tell you about that too in the last segment. But last but certainly not least, I think every single one of these guys has plenty of opportunity to eat. I don't think that Jamar Chase coming in and being at all star big name really can up with Burrow.
I don't think that's going to take away anything from Higgins and Boyd. I think all of these guys are going to be able to produce. And I think it's going to be sneakily one of the best receiving cores in the NFL this season. Yeah, I'm for the most part, I'm right there with you.
This is one of my favorite, as far as a tail perspective. It's one of my favorite rooms. No question about it. As far as Tyler Boyd, I agree with you there too.
I think his overall statistics might stay the same or drop a little bit with Jamar Chase. That doesn't mean I don't think he's going to be really good and be a really strong factor for him. You also have Audent Tate coming in as the number four receiver who actually stepped up last year and had some solid production. But overall, yeah, I am a huge fan of this room.
We haven't talked much about T Higgins. You obviously mentioned him, but I am a big fan of T Higgins. I think at least one of these guys, if not a couple of these guys goes over a thousand yards this year. I would almost be willing to put my money on all three of them going over a thousand yards.
They're just in my mind some of the top ones in the league right now. They're young, they're fast, they're quick. If Jobaro has the season that we're both expecting and that once again, we'll talk about it. Man, I think this is going to be a great trio of receivers that you need to be back in the weekend and week out.
Nonetheless, the last position here on the offensive side of all running backs, said it briefly just a little while ago, but Joe mixed and now looking like RB1 and not really looking like it is solidified. If he went and got injured last year, he's that workhorse three down back. They're going to have to keep him a little bit more protected. Obviously we saw that.
He hit the IEL, had to spend the entire back half of the season out. So hopefully they don't have that issue. They did bring in Sanjay P. Ryan.
He hasn't ever been a huge explosive right home about back, but I think he will give a little bit of relief for Joe mixed. Outside of that, no huge names to write home about. Partners, are there anything that you can really say about the backfield here in Cincinnati? Is there really anything outside of Joe mixing that we should be looking at, guys?
We should be targeting here in anything of, maybe fantasy-wise, anything at all? No, I do like Joe mixing. Once again, this offensive line, it's not like they had a lot of strengths the last couple of years. They weren't very good pass blocking.
They weren't very good run blocking. So one way or another, they have to improve. Despite all of that, I still think Joe mixing has a really solid year. For his sake and for the team's sake, hopefully they aren't trailing in all of these games.
Once again, they have in the last couple of years to where in the second half of all these games, they have to throw, throw to try and get back into these games, because that kind of as far as Joe mixing overall surface numbers, he kind of took a hit as far as his team's not being in the game and throwing away the running game, because he's a really good man. He's a top 10 running back at the least, if not higher than that. Hopefully he can stay healthy this year, because he's one of the bigger, higher impact running backs in the league. I'm a huge fan of him.
We will break down that whole run back room, the entire wide receiver room, quarterback's everything on the fantasy segment here. It starts to add to the show. I said it at the top of the show. I think this offense has ridiculous fantasy value, and I think it's way, way under the radar.
I've had Tyler Boyd on my fantasy team for the last three seasons, and I haven't been disappointed about it. I don't tell you that much. Let's keep it moving, keep it grooving here today, and flip the script to the defensive side of the ball. We'll talk about all that other stuff, but actually before we do go to the defensive side of the ball, I wanted to mention some of the key rankings per sharp football analysis on the offense here.
They got the quarterback room ranked at 16, obviously kind of middle of the pack. I like that ranking for Joe Burrow. Obviously coming off the injury, I think that middle of the pack ranking is just because of so many question marks with how many times you set a part of the offensive line. That offensive line is coming in as the 29th ranked unit in the NFL, so I don't think that they're going to have all too much success.
The running backs are not bad. We'll have to see if they can keep Joe mixed and healthy, and if any of those other guys can provide some depth and some rest for him. 17th ranked backfield in the NFL, and then as far as the receivers go, a little bit better than middle of the packed 11th ranked unit right now. However, I think that they have potential to maybe definitely crack into the top 10, maybe even within the top five.
I think they have the potential. I just think with the rookie question mark, and then always a question mark of a sophomore slump potentially from T Higgins. I don't think we see it, but I think that's why you get that ranking. So that's the rankings on the offensive side of the ball.
Let's move to the defense here, my friend. So a couple of question marks here on this side of the ball as well. They let some guys walk. They were able to add through free agency trade, draft plenty of guys to fill those holes.
I think this will be a pretty doggone good defense this year, but it's still kind of, as I always say, the jury's still out. We don't really know what it's going to be, but partner kick things off over there, my friend. What are some of the key defensive losses for the Bengals here going into 2021, man? All right, so they did lose a handful of some depth losses here.
A couple of the bigger names. They lost Carl Lawson off the edge. He played all 16 games last year. That is without a doubt their biggest loss here.
William Jackson the third defensive back played 14 games. That's another tough loss for them. Christian Covington also played 16 games in the interior defensive line. And then Mackenzie Alexander corner played 13 games.
Sean Williams played 13 games at States position. You know Atkins and at, excuse me, you know, Atkins actually played eight games, but he was not good at all last year. It was time for him to move on. Josh Bynes played 16 games at linebacker and LaShawn Sims played 13 games at corner.
So, you know, they turned a little bit of a, turned a little bit of some fat here. Had some guys that they probably wish they could have kept around, but as you're about to mention, they did bring in some nice pieces to fill these holes. They sure did. And as far as via free agency or the trade market, they brought in Trey Hendrickson off the edge.
They're very, very great talent coming out of Hendrickson. I think that he is going to more than fill the hole that they lost there. And remind me the first name you said. I'm like, Oh, Carlos, Carlos, more than fill that hole.
Then they also brought in Larry Ogden, Jobe on the inside defensive interior defensive line. He can kind of rotate everywhere, but I think that that is going to be great because he's one of those guys who, if I'm not mistaken, plays from the three point and the two point state a lot. So we can kind of keep that defense off balance. That's what he's going to do.
They also added Jadobe, Abu Zee always been a huge fan of a Wu Zee one of the top Dbacks in the NFL. So I think that's a great ad for them. Mike Hilton defensive back, not the greatest ad in the world. Nothing right home about there.
Ricardo Allen's safety perennial great player. I wouldn't say middle of the pack a little bit better than middle of the pack, but that's kind of where he finds himself season over season in the NFL. And then as far as the draft, they made some decent moves on the defensive side of the ball. They brought in Joseph Asai out of Texas defensive in Camp Sample, defensive in out of Tulane Wyatt Hubert defensive in out of Kansas State and Tyler Shelvin defensive tackle out of LSU.
So some big boys, big names to hopefully get right in the rotation quick and fill some of those holes. Before we dive into that defensive line there, we'll start there as well. So the key 2020 defensive stats for you guys to know about as well. The Cincinnati Bengals defense allowed 6.1 yards per play to opponent offenses.
They allowed opponents to complete passes at a 62.85 percentage rate. Their opponent third down conversion conversion percentage was at 43.33 and they allowed their opponents to score in the red zone 63.79% of the time. So third down conversion, not bad. You'd like to see it right around there.
Anything sub 50 is never bad in the NFL, but that red zone's got to tighten up much like the offense needs to tighten up in the red zone here for the Bengals. So does the defense. But that all being said, let's talk about that defense. Now, as far as the defensive line goes, you have Hubbard reader, Ogun Jobe looks like he's going to be getting the start as well.
And then Hendrickson. So Ogun Jobe, Hendrickson coming right in and getting the start right off the jump. And then I love the depth that they have with the rookie addition. Some of those guys are big names and guys that I think they can rotate in and out and will have early success in the league.
Yeah, I really like this. I do like this defensive line. I think a lot of the weight might be on their shoulders to produce and put some pressure on the opposing offensive line. But to create that, you know, win those battles in the trenches because obviously that's not going out on a limb to say that everything needs to do that.
But given the strengths of the rest of the defense, a lot of it is going to fall in that defensive line because I love the addition of Hendrickson and Ogun Jobe. But decent, decent acquisitions all around, especially the depth. So, you know, I'm not sure what we're going to expect. But as far as the entire defense as a whole, this is probably the one that I can have the most consistent expectations or most clear expectations for what we're going to get out of them.
I wouldn't necessarily lean on that side. As far as my opinion goes on this defensive line, I think it's going to be very solid, very dominant this season. I don't think that they're going to have to worry about being the superheroes that you kind of talked about with Joe Burrow there. I think that the secondary is going to surprise a lot of people.
I think that addition of a Wu Zie is going to be top notch, you know, Hilton, I don't know a whole bunch about him. But I think that he's going to be, I think he's going to come in and be a solid addition as well. And then as far as Wayne's, Wayne's, Wayne's comes back in, I think he's going to be just fine. I think that's going to be a great dominant secondary.
And then you've got Von Bell coming back. Von Bell has always been at dominant safety. And then you have Bates on his opposite side. So I think that secondary is going to be dominant as well.
Right now they're actually ranked 18th per shark football analysis in the NFL. I think that's pretty dog on accurate. And I think they have potential, much like the receiving core I said, to bump down in there, maybe get in the top 15 top 12. So I think they have plenty of potential.
I think this defensive line has plenty of talent and plenty of depth. Now where my mind is the biggest question mark is these linebackers. I'm not, I'm not all too certain what we're going to get from them production wise this season. I don't know about you, but it definitely sounds like the secondary is a little bit more of a question mark to you.
But as far as these linebackers go, I have no clue in the world. I don't think we're going to see great seasons out of their back of the front seven, if you will. Right, right. That's, you know, more so what I was talking about as far as the defensive line having to show a little bit more load.
You are a little higher on the secondary than I am not saying that secondary is going to be bad by any means. I think they stick to a middle of the pack type production. But as you're mentioning that line backing core might have some struggles and all facets of the game. These two guys are two, three guys that you're going to see starting season may not be the guys that you see starting the season by the end of 2021.
I think that's very likely actually. So, you know, I like some of the additions that they made at the defensive line. I think for me, this defense seems like a defense that in a couple of years here, maybe next year, two years, we're going to be seeing some, we're going to be really impressed with this defense. I think, you know, there might be a little bit of growing pains, so to speak, as far as the meshing of them all coming together at once.
And then like we were kind of mentioning that line backing core might be really, really bad. And hopefully, you know, the rest of their team can kind of cover up those holes, but I am very concerned about these two linebackers here. I think you saying meshing altogether at once is about the best way anybody could put it. I think that there'll be days that the front seven are excellent.
I think that there'll be days that the secondary is excellent. And much like you, I do think that that whole putting it all together. Once is not going to be the best. I did mention that the secondary ranks 18th in the NFL right now, the front seven 29th ranked unit in the NFL.
Bottom of the barrel there for the present seven. You know, it is to me too, especially with our opinions on the defensive line. But obviously, the linebackers hold way to any question marks. So there you go.
There you have it. Quick pits up before we get into the entire schedule for the Bengals going into 2021 here. Talk about the head coach, Zach Taylor coming in for year three here and partner by all accounts. Everything you can read anywhere you can go.
Zach Taylor is one lucky man to be coming back for year three here. He sure is. And you know, his seat might be as hot as anybody in the entire NFL this year. If he comes out of the gates, you know, looking cold, this team is having some struggles.
We could be in for a mid season switch. I'm not calling for that necessarily. But his seat is as hot if not hotter than anybody in the entire league. And you know, as far as the entire coaching step as well too, if that defense comes out struggling, Lou and our on a room, who are about to mention, he could also be on the hot seat.
Maybe Zach Taylor uses him as a scapegoat if the offense is playing well, but that defense is getting torch. I don't know. But you know, I'm interested to see what we see from Zach Taylor reporting about yesterday that I saw on Twitter that I guess the offense hasn't been looking great. And Cam, but apparently Taylor isn't blinking.
He's looking staying calm. So not the best. Not the best words you want to hear as far as looking for a team to improve in a third year under this coach. So, you know, I'm a little unsure what we expect here from Zach Taylor.
Yeah. Kind of question marks in my mind to Lou on a remote. Great segue by you there, partner. You know, I don't know what we see from him.
I think he could become a potential scapegoat as well. Much like I talked about Sean DeSci yesterday for the Bears coming in for his third season as well. I had to look a little bit up about him because he was the defense of back coach for Purdue. And then he came into the league in 2012 for the dolphins, then went to the Giants after being with the dolphins until 2017.
And then he's been with the Bengals ever since. So, I'm not too certain. Obviously, this Bengals defense hasn't produced at a super, super high level. They've been middle of the pack for the last two seasons here.
So, I don't know. Hopefully he can get some improvement out of them. But as a per-sharp football analysis, one more time, Zach Taylor is ranked at 28th overall in the NFL as a head coach. So, not great looking for him with that ranking.
I do believe his seat might have just got even hotter. I think so, man. All right. Well, there you go.
There you have it. The entire Cincinnati Bengals offensive breakdown, defensive breakdown and coaching staff. Now, let's keep this show steaming down the tracks, my friends. We are getting right with it here today.
Let's get into the entire 2021 schedule for the Cincinnati Bengals. First things first here. I will run through the entire schedule. I'll also, once we get through the entire schedule breakdown, I'll also go through the betting lines week by week and everything like that.
So, I'll quickly just mention everybody here as far or every team rather as far as the weekly matchups go. So, I mentioned it a little while in the show, a little while ago in the show, but week one, they are in Cincinnati against the Vikings. Then they're on the road back to back and week two and three against the Bears and Steelers. Then they come back home for two weeks against the Jags and the Packers.
Then they go on the road for three straight weeks against the Lions, the Ravens, and the Jets. Then their final game before their by week and week ten, week nine, they face the Brownies in Cincinnati. Then they come back in week 11, go to Las Vegas to play the Raiders. They have three back to back to back home games in 12, 13 and 14 versus the Steelers, the Chargers, and the 49ers.
Then in week 15, 16, 17 and 18, they go away, home, home, away against the Broncos, home twice, which is nice against the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. If you're going to play those boys, you want to play them at home if anywhere. Then close out the season in Cleveland in week 18. You know, rough into the season there, just right off the bat, front half of the season, doesn't look too bad, doesn't look anything that they couldn't come out at their minimum by the by, maybe 500 or maybe one two games under 500.
I could definitely see that by the by, but they get out of that by in short of the Raiders, my French. I mean, oh my goodness, they were going to get smacked in the mouth time and time again offensively and defensively. Yeah, I mean, for their sake, yeah, almost have to cross your fingers that week 16, 17 and 18, the Ravens, Chiefs and Browns have their divisions all wrapped up. That's kind of what you're hoping for if you're a Bengals fan.
But the only problem is is that the Ravens and the Browns are both in that division and they can be... Sorry, I weren't playing. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
I'm sorry. I'm sorry. That's going to be wild. I mean, it is going to be a roller coaster for that team from week 13 on.
I think that they only get one win out of that against potentially the Broncos. That game is in Denver. So I don't know. I'm telling you the end of this season.
It's not good for the Bengals. Some of the key things to mention in addition to that you guys should know about is the rest and prep and equality. Now, we talked about it with the Bears yesterday, one of the worst teams in the league. They got a plus three differential in rest, plus three differential in opponent advantage.
I mean, it's no good. However, for the Bengals, the schedule makers were saying, Hey, we'll give you a little nicer to this year. We'll let you. We'll give you some hard opponents, but we'll give you some more time to prepare.
We'll give you a little bit more time to rest. So they face zero opponents that have over a week to prepare for them. They face two opponents that have less than a week to prepare for them. So they get a plus two advantage.
The team, the Bengals have no rest disadvantages all season long and they have three rest advantages. So another plus three advantage there. They play no short week road games and they play no road games off or no games off of a road Sunday night or Monday night football. So they look absolutely terrific from a timing standpoint.
I know that Bengals fans, I'm sorry that the opponents don't look good at all and it might be a thrashing in the back half of the season. But one thing you can hold on hope to is that the schedule makers gave you a little bit of light and a little bit lighter schedule, if you will, and giving you some more time to prepare and not putting you at so many disadvantages. Right. Rest wise.
Yeah, I think the bigger thing is that they don't have disadvantages. I mean, the one huge advantage is out there by week going into one of their, you know, have the better half of their, you know, as far as strength of opponents, the Raiders in week 11. But I mean, the other two advantages they have is a three day advantage against my Packers. And then, you know, one day advantage a week, 18 against the Browns, which should help if the Browns have the thing wrapped up.
But, you know, I think the bigger thing is that they don't have any disadvantage, honestly. Yeah, I think that is huge for the Bengals here and given them plenty of time to prepare for some of those big key opponents. Now diving deeper into the 2021 schedule by opponent, what we kind of think as far as wins losses, what they're going to do overall here, wrapping up the entire schedule as a whole. Now, as far as the AFC North goes, I've kind of gone back and forth on this one.
I don't, I don't really know. I don't really know where to fall, but there's, there's one thing that I do know is I believe that they get a split with the Browns. I believe they get that first match up in week nine. That game obviously is played in Cincinnati.
And then I think they potentially lose the week 18 matchup. That's played in Cleveland. Now, as far as the Ravens go, it would take a miracle for them to not go 0 and 2. So I think that's where they lie there.
And then I'm leaning towards a split with the Steelers. I believe that they can split with the Steelers. This defense does provide and creates a havoc for the Bengals when they do play the Steelers. So I think that they can split there too.
So at the worst, I think they go 2 and 4 in the AFC North. Where are you at, Porter? Yeah, I'm sort of right around there with you. I think they get a split with the Steelers.
They took one without Joe Burrow from him last year when the Steelers were faltering at the end of the year last year. As far as the Ravens, I'm right there with you. The Ravens absolutely smoked them both times. One with Joe Burrow, one without.
So I think maybe not a total thrashing both times. But I think we see a handy Ravens wins there. I don't know about the Browns. I am very high on the Browns this year.
I'm going to say two wins. And it's mostly because I'm kind of banking on the Browns. Having things wrapped up in week 18 there. So I'm going to say two wins for that matter.
And one way or another, maybe they get two against the Steelers. And that'll help prove me right. Yeah, I'm actually high on the Browns as well. And that's tomorrow's team of the day for enough.
But yeah, I don't know, man. I think at the most they get two, I don't think they can squeak out three. By some miracle that they can sweep the Steelers or the Browns, which is saying that just doesn't even make any type of sense. I think they're right at two wins in the AFC North.
Now, we always know now, well, I typically is eight games and then two other games. But now we got eight games outside of the vision and then three games. So there's eight main games outside of the vision that are played with the AFC West and NFC North this season. As far as AFC West goes, I see them getting one potentially two wins here.
Definitely over the Raiders. I think that's going to be a shootout type of game. The Raiders are going to kind of crumble there at the end. The Broncos potentially, but with it being played in Detroit, I don't know.
Never did that. I don't know if that's going to be in the cards or the Bengals there. So maybe one in four in the AFC West. And then I think one way or another, they go two and two in the NFC North.
Either they lose to the Packers and the Bears or they lose to the Packers and the Vikings. One combination of those. I just do believe that they'll go two and two in the NFC North. So overall, three and five in eight games outside for me.
Where's your head at here, partner, with the games for them? We are very close to the line on this one. I want to be optimistic and say they can get the Broncos and Raiders. But as you mentioned, late in the season, the way that game is sandwiched in between some brutal opponents.
I didn't like that game in Denver for the Bengals. I do like I'll give them the Raiders, especially because they get the full bi-week to prepare for them, even though it is in Vegas. I like having that big advantage there. So I'll give them one there.
And I'm right there with you on the NFC North. You know, we're perfectly aligned on that one. I don't think they beat the Packers. I think they beat the Lions and then they'll figure out either the Bears or the Vikings.
And that's week one and two, right? So yeah, I think they'll come out of the gates in one of those games. I 100% agree with you on there. So yeah, again, hey, we're kind of lining up here.
And I'm leaning towards the Vikings, actually. That one's insincey. I think that Bears defense could have a feast on that Bengals offensive line in week too. Yeah.
I think that's what I say most likely the Lions and the Vikings as well. So right now I'm looking at four wins as far as it goes for me or five wins. Five wins right now for me, two in the division and then three outside. And then they got the three remaining games for you guys.
Jets, Jags and 49ers. I think that they get the win over the Jags. I think I keep saying this, but I just don't know what the Jags are going to be with Urban Meyer, Trevor Lawrence. Hey, roll birds.
We got plenty of birds on that. James Robinson, James O'Shaughnessy. I mean, I don't know. They could be damn good.
They could be damn good, but we're not talking about the Jags today. Right now, in my mind, they get that win. And then I think they get the win over the Jets as well, and then they lose two to 49ers. So in my mind, that puts me at seven wins partner.
I am with you on the two wins there. The Jets and the Jags, not any. I'm not giving them any chance against the Niners at home. I think the Niners is a real bad matchup for them, but yeah, I'm kind of with you there.
I can also see them losing to the Jets and Jags. I'm not going to say that. I'm going to give them both of those wins, but it wouldn't shock me whatsoever. I'm actually leaning towards maybe they find a way to lose at least one of those two.
Oh, man. I don't know. I just don't know, man. And the Jets are in the same vein as the Jags.
I really like Robert Salah. Ross still has a long way to go. I saw some, maybe this is just me seeing a couple of, I must follow some Jets fans coincidentally in their post in a shitload of Zach Wilson camp videos that looked really good. So maybe I'm just drinking that Kool-Aid right now and recency bias, but I don't know, man.
I'm leaning towards less than seven wins, but the way we're mapping it out, I'm also right there kind of with you with seven. Right about right at seven. So we'll talk about the season win total and a couple things in there. And actually a couple of key points that I have as far as where the season win total is actually at right now.
Very, very crucial as to where it was last year and has been going over the course of the past couple of years and where it is now. So make sure you stick around for the season when total once we get into betting preview. But wrapping up the schedule, this year's schedule compared to last year, much, much harder. So the Bengals are going to have to step up.
They're going to have to be ready to rock and roll. I mean, they got the AFC South last year when they were down. They were able to beat the Titans for crying out loud and they were able to get the NFC least when we've already talked about it. They were on the lowest season that they've ever had in two decades for crying out loud.
And actually they only went 0-3 and 1 against the NFC East anyways. Yeah, exactly. So, and then they got the Dolphins and Chargers outside of that. I mean, not the hardest schedule in the world.
They obviously were able to win some games without Joe Burrow, but I mean, not a great season for the Bengals overall across the board. So much harder schedule this season. They're going to have to fix a lot of those problems. We talked about offensively and defensively.
Those things are going to need to happen or Zack Taylor might be hitting the bricks. Lou Arrumo might be hitting the bricks. Who knows what the world is going on that way in Cincinnati? But I'll tell you one thing.
If it doesn't start going good, it is not going to be good for those affirmation coaches. They might as well get on out. But that does it for the entire schedule breakdown, ladies and gentlemen. Now, you know the TTL crew talking the line.
We talk lines around these parts. We're sports battling better. We're sports betting analyst by trade. Now that all being said, we got to talk about some potential value.
Sure do. Some potential lines to target some potential far out season long shots for the Bengals. So let's get into the third segment of today with the Cincinnati Bengals season betting preview. All right.
Keep it rocking and rolling here, partner. I will kick things off first things first with some 2020 key stats that you all should know about. You should know about as well. Very interesting to see where the average lines are at this season.
No, in 2020, the average line for the Bengals was at six and a half. They were six and a half point dogs. It's dropped down into 2021 down to 3.7 down to 3.7 dogs. Now, why I mentioned that is because they were six point dogs on average in 2019 and 3.2 dogs on average in 2018.
Now, we all know what happened in 2019, but 2018 was a little bit better. They went six, nine and one last two seasons. They've only won six games. So a little bit better across the board when this the line was set at this number.
So maybe some to potentially look at here, maybe something to think about as we also segue into the season wind total. So keep that thought there and I'll continue on this season. They're favored in two games and they are underdogs in 15 games. So not a whole lot of respect from the books.
The only time there were nine and six ATS. They were one and O as a favorite, actually an eight and six ATS as an underdog. They did really well against the number at home, five and two ATS, one and O as a favorite four and two ATS as a dog. The road, however, was a bit of a toss up for them for an ATS.
Oh, no, as a favorite, never favorite on the road, but four and four ATS, obviously as an underdog. And not a whole lot you can draw there other than the fact that the Bengals were very solid against the number at home. And I think that they continue to do that this season, especially with some of the matchups that they do have at home that we'll talk about here very shortly in the full weekly betting preview breakdown. But as far as the game totals in 2020, they averaged 45.7.
It is a little bit higher in 2021 here. We'll talk about that in addition, kind of looking ahead, but mainly a bunch of 47, 48 and 46's. They do toss in 49 and a 50 there. And then there's one super low one that's in the low 40's.
So nothing you can really draw from there. It's right around the same, but just a little bit higher. So maybe, hey, maybe the books are already thinking that the Bengals are going to improve a little bit, but who knows here? We'll see.
However, for 2020, over-under, they were seven, eight and one. They were four and four over-under at home, three, four and one on the road, one and O as a favorite and six, eight and one over-under as an underdog. Now, that covers some of the main bets that you could place, the best that everybody typically places against the spread and the game total. However, you love a teaser.
I love a teaser. We all love a teaser. We're crazy for teasers. Hey, so for 6.7 point and 10 point teasers respectively, as the last couple teams we've talked about must add to your teasers, bangles, be careful.
6 and 7 point teasers, they hold or held in 2020 and 11 and 5 record and then in 10 point teasers, 12 and 4. So a little bit better in 10 point teasers, but not necessarily that team that you need to add is that last critical leg to potentially push you over to just two plus odds. And you got to bank on that leg. Maybe not the one that you want to be banking on.
So that does it for 2020 trends, ATS over-under, a little bit of teaser action there for you as well because we're all the generals at the end of the day. Love a good teaser. I play one just about every week and not just about I do play one every week in the NFL season. That all being said, let's move into 2021, my friends.
You guys are here for a reason. You want to hear about what's going on in 2021? Well, they got the buy in week 10, so nothing to worry about there. I already told you where the locations are, who they're playing.
So just quickly run through here some of the weekly betting lines. I'll tell you if I see any value, anything I might potentially target early and partner, if you can be so kind to do the same as I quickly run through the 17 games for the bangles of the season. Now they come in, start the season, week one, two and three, all this underdogs, 3.3 and a half point and 6 point dogs against the Vikings, the Bears and the sealers come in. Then in week four, as two and a half point favorites in Cincinnati against the Jaguars, then five, six, seven and eight, three point dogs against the Packers, one point favorites against the Lions, getting 10 points against the Ravens and getting one point against the New York Jets.
Very interesting there. I'll come back to that week nine before they close out the buy. They're coming in as four and a half point dogs against the Brownies weeks 11, 12 and 13. They're all underdogs as well against the Raiders, the Steelers and the Chargers, four and a half points, three points and two and a half points respectively.
Then you got 14 and 15 against the 49ers and the Broncos, three and a half point dogs against the 49ers, but five and a half point dogs against the Broncos. Interesting. So I'll come back to that as well. And then close out their season final three weeks, week 16, 17 and 18, six and a half point dogs to the Raven, seven and a half point dogs to the Chiefs and six and a half point dogs to the Browns after being four and a half point dogs in week nine against them.
That's the entire outlook, entire lines there. Now told you I go back to that plus one against the Jets is very, very interesting to me. I'm not, I'm not so sure that I put that game in a pick them. I would honestly give the Bengals three points there in that spot.
If I was making a line, I'm not necessarily too sure where they think they're going to be at that point, but then that's when they come off of probably going to be getting an ass whooping to the Ravens and then get to come home and play an easy team in the Jets. But hey, maybe, maybe Bobby Salah has that defense ratcheted up and the Bengals don't know what's about to hit him in the mouth come week eight there. I think that one's in at the Jets actually. That one.
Yeah, yeah, I couldn't see it regardless. Yeah, no, what you said is back away games. Maybe that's actually the greener road Detroit Baltimore and the Jets. So, you know, tough road stretch, but as far as the teams, they play, there's only one tough road game there.
So yeah, we'll obviously know a lot more about both of those teams come week eight. So not sure what we'll see from them at that point yet. Either way, very interesting to see that line also interested to see them getting three and a half points in or at home, instance, and atty and then five and a half points away in Denver. Maybe that little bump there is because of the home away split, but my Ohio baby goodness gracious.
I guess I guess I don't know. I would not think I would put that definitely closer to three and a half. Yeah, so that's going to be a shoot out. I don't think five I think five and a half is way too much.
And I think you scoop that up all day long. I don't I'm not going to be writing home about the Denver Broncos this year. I'll tell you that. Let's see, I guess we'll see.
I believe that's next week's team or maybe Monday or Tuesday's team. But hey, get close. Yeah, I don't know what to expect in the Broncos. That is a really interesting line splits though, especially because you know, that whole stretch that they play there is just interesting to see how those lines change.
And you know, the Broncos being one of the biggest dog numbers there. The one thing as far as last year, this year that I'm trying to dissect, you mentioned, I believe it was six and a half point average dogs last year, now it's not a 3.7. I'm wondering if that's maybe the combination of the two that bingles improve me proving or if that average number ended up being that high because of some of the giant lines that they were seeing at the end of the year after Boro came because I remember correctly, they had some double digit lines to, you know, at least the Ravens, if not, you know, the Steelers as well. So that's kind of where I'm wondering if that's why that number six and a half was as high as it was.
But at the same time, you know, I'm interested to see where obviously the lines move as the season goes on. But you know, early season, you know, I'm interested in a couple of those lines earlier on in the season, at least. How about you? Yeah, I definitely am as well.
You know, I think you just have to stay away at the end of the season. Some of them are going to be very tempting and I think they're going to be priced just right. But the more I keep looking at them as you were talking about some of the things there, I just think you're going to have to be very tentative at the end of the season. Now, some of the early season games, I think that you can gung ho, I actually might take them minus two and a half against the Jags minus one against Detroit.
It'll just kind of take that right spot for them. And it's not not necessarily one of those teams that you can look ahead and say, Oh, yeah, they're going to be a wagon. They're going to kill it. They're absolutely going to murder it.
Cause I mean, it's yes wise nine and six not crazy, not anything special, but still still pretty dog on good against the number, but you had to have them at home overall and they get a good handful of away games. So not too certain overall there, but as far as a couple of key game totals, there's nothing that really jumps off the page of me. Much like we talked about the bears yesterday, it's going to have to be a very specific spot. And if you see us play one of those and you see that in our plays, you know, that specific spot and you should probably play that because nine times out of 10 and a half that that dog on thing hits.
Right. And you know, just looking back at last year, they had so many games where it was 30 points shoot outs or you know what, a 27 three or a 20 to nine, 19 to seven type game. So a little bit of a pretty volatile as far as an over under team. So like my partner is saying, if you see us hammering one of those in and there's a good chance we like, you know, we like it to be a drastic fucking win.
Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So there you go. Weekly betting lines all the way through.
However, partner, I got to ask you my friends, being the good degenerates that we are week one in Cincinnati, the Bengals play the Vikings. The Bengals are coming in getting three points. Are you hammering in the Bengals or are you taking the vikes on the road, laying the three? I'm taking the Bengals, my friend.
I have not looked at this line recently, but I have to imagine that they might even increase, you know, this line here, given the perspective around the Bengals coming into the season, for whatever reason, I keep hearing some hyperground, the Vikings, mostly from Vikings fans, but that might even draw that line up a little bit. So regardless, two and a half, three, three and a half, four, I'm going to be taking that Bengals line there, man. I really am not that high in the Vikings this year, and I think that might be the right matchup for the Bengals coming out of the gates. Yeah.
And you know, I like that as well. I like the Bengals plus three. I think it really is. And as you were kind of breaking down everything there, I mean, I pretty much would say almost all of the same exact thing.
And I think that the total might have a little bit of value in this game. 48 points right now it's set at. I might not be too afraid of the under. Sure.
I really might not be too afraid of the under. I could see a little 21 17 finish here. And you know, last time I checked, 38 points goes under 48. Sure does.
I mean, I could see this game finishing right around there. And man, I think that might be the best bet of this game. But again, I think the Bengals come out of the gates hot. I think this early season camp offensive struggles is just media hoopla and it's going to end up being all right for the Bengals.
So I as my partner would take the Bengals plus three and then also, hey, take a look at the under 48 there as well. Yeah, still sitting at three. Just check right there on draft Kings. And who has been down this morning, but yeah, still sitting at three.
I think it's your fan doing man. Because my mom maybe it's good. Yeah, either way, there we go. There you have it.
Wait till early week one pick for the Bengals versus Vikings. Moving by long into some other stuff we can bet on and wager are harder and funds upon. The season wind total now told you about it just a little while ago, but the Bengals season wind total is currently set at six and a half. The over six and a half is plus one 10 and the under is at minus 130.
Now partner myself personally, I said seven wins. That would put me in the over category that six and a half. So I would have to say that again, not another one. I'm not running into the window to hammer in, but I think it could be really, really, really fun to sweat out with just a little half a unit or something like that.
I think I got to take the over plus one 10, get a little bit of extra juice going and they barely squeaked out and get seven wins go over six and a half. Yeah, I mean, you and I were both talking about this one might be more of just an entertainment play and it could be entertaining on both sides of things because I like it. We were talking, I kind of mapped out seven wins, but I'm a lot more reluctant seven wins than you are. So I'm going to be siding with the under here.
I just think, you know, some of these wins that we kind of gave them Broncos Raiders, Lions, Jets, Jags, I got to imagine at least one of those teams outperforms our expectations here and snips these bangles down here. And I'm also not that high in Zack Taylor. I might talk about that in a second, but I'm going to be siding with the under. I don't see it, man.
I just think the schedule is a two damn hard. I like this roster, especially a lot of these offensive talents, but this schedule is just too damn hard for me to go over six and a half. I definitely agree with your opinion. I see all where you're at.
Now, one thing that I would like to mention if you would like to hammer either side in on this season, win total and have some fun, sweat it out. The season went total for the bangles has consistently dropped over the last three years down, down, down, and the bangles have consistently hit the under. Right. This is the first year in a while that they have ticked up the season, when total from the year prior.
So it leaves me to believe that quite possibly maybe they get it, but they get it by just one and the books are doing exactly this. They edge out those seven wins. I think this is going to be a turnaround year for the bangles. It has to be.