Uncertainty, Tariffs, and Tax Cuts: The State of the U.S. Economy with Adam Michel

In Segment 3, Bill Bernardoni speaks with Adam Michel, Director of Tax Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, about the current economic landscape and whether the country is anywhere close to a recession. Adam describes the economy as a “deer in headlights,” caught between opposing forces: strong tax cuts and deregulation pushing in one direction, and tariffs, debt, and uncertainty pulling in the other. Bill notes how the hesitation is showing up in his own business, with clients waiting to sign contracts until they know what’s coming next. Adam explains that the mixed signals show up everywhere — jobs slowing but not collapsing, GDP holding, inflation falling but not finished — creating a holding pattern where businesses and households are simply waiting to see which direction the economy tips. The two then turn to tax policy. Adam argues that the recent tax cuts will make the United States more competitive, especially if tariff pressures ease, but warns that proposals like eliminating the federal income tax through tariff revenue are impossible and would be far more costly. They also discuss upcoming filing season, new provisions on tips and overtime, and why well-intended changes from the administration will add complexity to an already complicated tax code.Do you think uncertainty is hurting the economy more than any single policy — and have you noticed it in your own business or spending? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.