EPISODE · Jun 9, 2026 · 10 MIN
Underdog’s Gambit: How Gregg Hull Wins New Mexico by Letting the Blue Cities Burn
from The Rock of Talk · host Eddy Aragon
Gregg Hull has a viable but narrow path to winning the New Mexico gubernatorial general election by fully consolidating the GOP base, capturing 50–60% of Bregman’s voters, dominating rural and suburban swing counties, and strategically abandoning deep-blue counties rather than wasting resources competing there. Key Points Gregg Hull won the GOP gubernatorial primary by exactly 10 points (47% vs. 37%), matching Eddy’s prediction, with approximately 16% from other candidates. Independent participation heavily favored Democrats (28,000 independents joined Democrats vs. 10,000 joining Republicans — nearly 3-to-1), and GOP turnout trailed Democrats by 100,000 — a serious warning sign. Hull’s priority is to consolidate 100% of Turner’s and Rodriguez’s supporters and capture 50–60% of Bregman’s voters in GOP-friendly and swing counties. Treat deep-blue counties (Santa Fe, Bernalillo, Doña Ana, Taos, McKinley, Rio Arriba) as sunk costs — do not chase or heavily spend there. The six most critical swing counties are Sandoval (Rio Rancho), Valencia, Los Alamos, Colfax, Guadalupe, and Socorro. Hull’s solid base counties include San Juan, Chavez (Roswell), Lea, Eddy, Curry, Roosevelt, Lincoln, Sierra, Otero, Quay, Union, and Catron — oil-producing and rural GOP strongholds. Hull must go aggressively negative on Deb Haaland — highlighting four DUIs and seven failed bar exam attempts — to force her onto the defensive and avoid a debate scenario similar to the one she used against Bregman. Media strategy: targeted mail and digital-only buys, not expensive broadcast, especially in blue counties. Reach disaffected Democrats and independents with broad persuasion messaging. Core message themes: crime, schools, energy, and jobs — Haaland is vulnerable here, while Hull’s 12-year Rio Rancho mayor record offers a strong executive contrast. Ben Ray Luján will easily defeat write-in Larry Marker; the 2nd congressional district (Greg Cunningham vs. Gabe Vasquez) is a GOP long shot, needing a 10,000-vote swing even after redistricting.
What this episode covers
Gregg Hull has a viable but narrow path to winning the New Mexico gubernatorial general election by fully consolidating the GOP base, capturing 50–60% of Bregman’s voters, dominating rural and suburban swing counties, and strategically abandoning deep-blue counties rather than wasting resources competing there. Key Points Gregg Hull won the GOP gubernatorial primary by exactly 10 points (47% vs. 37%), matching Eddy’s prediction, with approximately 16% from other candidates. Independent participation heavily favored Democrats (28,000 independents joined Democrats vs. 10,000 joining Republicans — nearly 3-to-1), and GOP turnout trailed Democrats by 100,000 — a serious warning sign. Hull’s priority is to consolidate 100% of Turner’s and Rodriguez’s supporters and capture 50–60% of Bregman’s voters in GOP-friendly and swing counties. Treat deep-blue counties (Santa Fe, Bernalillo, Doña Ana, Taos, McKinley, Rio Arriba) as sunk costs — do not chase or heavily spend there. The six most critical swing counties are Sandoval (Rio Rancho), Valencia, Los Alamos, Colfax, Guadalupe, and Socorro. Hull’s solid base counties include San Juan, Chavez (Roswell), Lea, Eddy, Curry, Roosevelt, Lincoln, Sierra, Otero, Quay, Union, and Catron — oil-producing and rural GOP strongholds. Hull must go aggressively negative on Deb Haaland — highlighting four DUIs and seven failed bar exam attempts — to force her onto the defensive and avoid a debate scenario similar to the one she used against Bregman. Media strategy: targeted mail and digital-only buys, not expensive broadcast, especially in blue counties. Reach disaffected Democrats and independents with broad persuasion messaging. Core message themes: crime, schools, energy, and jobs — Haaland is vulnerable here, while Hull’s 12-year Rio Rancho mayor record offers a strong executive contrast. Ben Ray Luján will easily defeat write-in Larry Marker; the 2nd congressional district (Greg Cunningham vs. Gabe Vasquez) is a GOP long shot, needing a 10,000-vote swing even after redistricting.
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Underdog’s Gambit: How Gregg Hull Wins New Mexico by Letting the Blue Cities Burn
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