Upside Down Expert Predictions

The Far Middle episode 120 begins with a little Labor Day history, including the debate of whether it was labor leader Peter McGuire or machinist Matthew McGuire who deserves credit for Labor Day’s origination. Nick fondly recalls Peter McGuire’s quote that the holiday is meant to honor those "who from rude nature have delved and carved all the grandeur we behold." And as the boys of summer prepare for fall and postseason play, Nick turns to baseball for this week’s sports dedication. While some listeners hoped “The Miracle Mets” of 1969 would earn honors for Far Middle episode 69, the Mets receive dedication honors this 120th episode. However, it’s for an unfortunate record: the Mets’ 120 losses tallied during their 1962 inaugural season. Nick adds that the 1962 Mets’ starting pitchers recorded just a combined 23 wins all season, which is less than Don Drysdale’s 25 games won—alone—that ’62 season for the Dodgers. And despite the record of the 1962 “lovable losers,” the Mets would of course bloom come the 1969 season for their first World Series Championship. For more on Drysdale, check out Far Middle episode 53. While on the topic of losing in epic fashion, Nick connects to the topic of climate predictions and climate change alarmism. In a unique Far Middle exploration, Nick reviews a century of highlights by “the experts’” climate predictions—beginning in 1923 with the New York Times reporting that Arctic ice was melting and “a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard of temperatures in that part of the earth.” Nick then goes decade-by-decade, discussing numerous climate predictions by media, experts, and elites; including the late 1970s shift from predictions of catastrophic global cooling to unavoidable global warming. After examining a century of inaccurate doomsday predictions, Nick offers four takeaways: 1) science is not about consensus; 2) we should not be setting policies impacting decades and trillions of dollars aiming for something we should have zero confidence in being able to accurately know; 3) why aren’t those making these past dead-wrong predictions held accountable; and, 4) where are present-day journalists reporting on the trends identified in this episode. In closing, Nick pays tribute to Diana Ross, who this week in 1980 reached number one on the Billboard Hot 100 with her hit “Upside Down”—a fitting song title for this episode’s discussion on expert predictions.