US budget deficit will hit $1-trillion; AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, FB earnings breakdown; and Britain sides with China on Huawei episode artwork

EPISODE · Jan 31, 2020 · 47 MIN

US budget deficit will hit $1-trillion; AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, FB earnings breakdown; and Britain sides with China on Huawei

from Pivot · host New York Magazine

Kara and Scott talk about the Congressional Budget Office projecting that the U.S. budget deficit will pass the $1 trillion threshold in 2020. They also get into tech earnings, who did well last quarter, and what we can expect going forward. In listener mail, Kara and Scott talk about Huawei Britain defying Trump's plea to ban their plans for 5G expansion. Kara's win is Michael Bloomberg's ad campaign. Her fail is Facebook's oversight board running late (and not asking her to be a member). Scott's win was media outlets who highlighted Holocaust Remembrance Day. His fail was Chipotle violating child labor laws. And Scott predicts that Uber will spinoff "Uber Eats". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kara and Scott talk about the Congressional Budget Office projecting that the U.S. budget deficit will pass the $1 trillion threshold in 2020. They also get into tech earnings, who did well last quarter, and what we can expect going forward. In listener mail, Kara and Scott talk about Huawei Britain defying Trump's plea to ban their plans for 5G expansion. Kara's win is Michael Bloomberg's ad campaign. Her fail is Facebook's oversight board running late (and not asking her to be a member). Scott's win was media outlets who highlighted Holocaust Remembrance Day. His fail was Chipotle violating child labor laws. And Scott predicts that Uber will spinoff "Uber Eats". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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US budget deficit will hit $1-trillion; AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, FB earnings breakdown; and Britain sides with China on Huawei

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TRANSCRIPT · AUTO-GENERATED

Hey, I'm Matthew Shell, comedian, writer, and floating head you may or may not have seen on your FYP. I'm starting a brand new podcast. Wait, don't swipe away. It's called That Sounds Like A Lot.

You know that feeling when you check your phone, read a few headlines and think, that sounds like a lot. I can't do this. Well, I can. I'm gonna get into it every Friday.

You can watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcast. I'm gonna start by breaking down whatever insanity is happening in the world, and then I'll sit down with a comedian or actor or writer or, honestly, anyone who responds to my DMs. This is not the place to get the news, but it is a place to feel a little bit better about it. That sounds like a lot.

Coming May 1st, part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Cara Swisher.

And I'm Scott Callaway. Hello, Scott. How are you doing today? My voice remains terrible, which is cold.

It never ends. Never ending cold. I don't know. We need to check you for symptoms.

Isolate her now. Isolate her now. Listen, what are you Wilbur Ross joking about the coronavirus if it's something? Good for US jobs.

Oh, my God. We're gonna talk about that first. But let me just say, last night I had to go on a nanny, a nanny. It was like, not Tinder, but that's not the right thing you want to do.

It was like, I visited, we're thinking of doing a nanny share, and you have to, like, interview with the people who you're sharing with to see if they like you. What I understand. So it's a nanny that's split between two families. Two people, right.

Yes. And so the other family that has to decide to like you. Not the nanny. And the nanny, too.

The nanny I would imagine. Isn't there an app for that? No, but it was really interesting. It took me back when I was trying to get my kids into school.

I'm sure a big capital opera is an app where you just click a button and a nanny who's gonna trade off flexibility for making $0.70 an hour will show up. Yes, they're not making $0.70 an hour. But nonetheless, it's really, it was a really interesting thing. You could actually, it's so disorganized.

We were on listservs and everything else. It is a business opportunity for Cara Swisher. In any way, it was really interesting. But coronavirus.

So, as everyone might know, the Trump administration doesn't just say the quiet things out loud. They say the horrible quiet things out loud. And little bit Ross, the Commerce Secretary, who I didn't know was not still sleeping, managed to say the worst thing, which was that this could be good for US jobs, meaning that shutting down of China, you know, I'm assuming he's not referring to death, but who knows what this guy. And, you know, bringing jobs back here, which is just ridiculous.

It's just a short term. They're not gonna suddenly open a factory in Texas because there's coronavirus in China, unless it's ongoing, which would mean it would be come over here and it has been coming over here. So, you know, he does bring up a question, not so much that we want to bring jobs here, which is a horrible way of looking at it, but the impact on tech companies, which are highly, you know, involved in manufacturing China, especially Apple, and some others in Apple had great, we couldn't get to tech earnings later, but Apple had great earnings this quarter, and it allowed to do with the iPhone 11, selling well, and the Air Pause and things like that. But there's tons of tech companies that have so much business in China, as do many other businesses, but tech is particularly tied to China, including the Chinese market, selling into the Chinese market.

What are your thoughts on this coronavirus situation? Well, I want to flip it back to you because you're, I find stuff like this and you have to be careful because it's the stuff you're not worried about that hits you hard. And granted, there are now officially more diagnosed cases of coronavirus and the SARS virus, so it's officially bigger than SARS now. But there's only been five cases presented in the U.S., where it probably hits economically, and we always have a tendency to go to the economics versus the human cost, is that people initially said, so for example, with Apple, well, 20% of iPhone sales are in China, but it's not sales that could be affected.

It's their supply chain, right? It's their supply chain, right? And there's been a couple of things, I think, over the last 12 months, and coronavirus might be one of them, depending upon how, you know, if it continues to march on, but the tariffs have forced every U.S. company to look at how diversified or non-diversified their supply chain is, so if you're in a parallel company and you're sourcing 90% of your products out of China, you started rethinking that.

And then this will probably give people more positive, it turns into something. So far, it's more perception, it's more hyped than horror, in a sense, economists are taking growth down. But, I mean, five cases in the U.S., 8,000 cases in China, which is, I think, about 170 deaths, which, on a country of that scale, it's all about the potential. It's the low probability has a very scenario that everyone's working out that hasn't presented itself.

You know, related to this, let's get to the next or the trillion dollar budget deficit. Again, another slop, you know, just tax cuts, and therefore, we're going to pay for it. Our children, as you talk about this, according to the Congressional Budget Office reported this week that the U.S. budget deficit would reach $1 trillion barrier in 2020.

The deficit is expected to average $1.3 trillion in 2021 and 30, rising from 4.6% of GDP to 5.4% over that period. We've talked about this, but, again, this is another thing that will later be impacting, not just tech, but other part. You can't keep fueling this, you know, doing this to fuel economic expansion. Well, I'm just kind of shocked that Stephen Mnuchin, he promised me that the tax cuts would pay for themselves, and they're not, apparently, which is just shocking, Tara.

And think of it this way. Think of the government just as a business, and that is, it provides your customers or taxpayers who pay taxes in exchange. They expect, you know, a certain level of national security, take care of our old people, build our roads. You know, it's a business, right?

And right now, this business of the government is taking in $3.5 trillion, and it's spending $4.5 trillion. You might say, okay, they're in growth mode. They're like a VC back company, they're losing a trillion dollars, or they have negative operating margins of 25%, which must mean they're in growth mode. It was announced, or released today, that our growth is 2.2%.

So we've effectively said, okay, we're going to get these massive budgets, and are we investing in infrastructure that will make us productive? Do we have high-speed transit get us by? Are we investing in education that will create a new generation of productivity from intellectual or human capital coming up to the Python? Are we investing even in defense that secures our peace and prosperity?

You know, we're investing in tax cuts thinking that this, again, this fetishization of wealthy people being our most productive citizens thinking they would invest in new businesses. New business startups are not up, right? CapEx is not only not up, it's down. I mean, it's just- You think it for themselves.

Yeah, or companies are reinvesting in buying Mac shares, which, again, increase asset prices, and what do you know, home prices are up, stock prices are up, so people who own those assets, i.e. old people, baby boomers, get wealthier, and young people are not only not able to buy anything, but they have this debt hanging over them that at some point they're going to have to pay back. So this is, this is just like this. We are kind of, I hope, repeat negligence in terms of our approach to government and deficits, but I think this is going to be, it's not an issue until it is, and the moment interest rates spike, the interest rate payments on our debt are now greater than what we spend on national defense.

So if interest rates were to say go from two to four percent, which would not be historic, it would almost be cyclically normative, you would have the U.S. would all of a sudden be saddled with paying for the largest defense budget twice in a matter of potentially 24 or 36 months. So this to me is a really creeping ugly issue. This is a guy that knows about deficit or bankruptcy.

We'll see how it affects, the stock market isn't necessarily immune from this. They don't realize this is hanging over their heads. You can't fakely pump things up for that long in general. Now let's get really quickly into tech earnings because Apple had a really great quarter.

On the iPhone sales 11, I have it, it's a great phone. The AirPods turned out to be a pretty, everyone was like great diversification of Apple away from these devices, but these devices did really well. And they've been moving into sales and services. Apple TV Plus had a strong quarter, although it's free.

It's not, it probably is losing a lot of money, but it's the minimums to Apple. So the diversification of it's the things, that's why it's so important, it's the kind of thing to get away from just the whole ecosystem versus just the device. So Apple did really well. Microsoft, Facebook, did not.

On the other hand, people were worried about it rising expenses. So it hit $2.5 billion, but slower profits. It's just not, they're not finding as much, but it's really getting crushed today, the Facebook earnings. And then there's an Amazon report later today, and we'll see how that does.

But in general, they're not bad. You know what I mean? Like in terms of growth, they're not doing that badly. So what are your thoughts on the earnings?

Well, let's break them down by company. So Apple had just a monster quarter. And that is, you have over 50% of revenue coming from the most profitable product in history where you have Toyota like production volumes at Ferrari like margins. And everyone was worried in the last three quarters, iPhone sales have declined here on year, and this year they renewed their growth.

So it's like the golden goose is back, you know, laying golden eggs. In addition, you had the services business up, 19%, again, moving towards this recurring revenue model, the Rundle. And the surprise, the blowout here was a 38% increase in the wearables group. And the wearables group now, which consists of the Apple Watch and the AirPods and the AirPods.

The AirPods, the AirPods are moving the whole thing. They're wonderful. Just taking along that group, the wearables group is now a Fortune 150 company. And if you were to have a product for the last decade, it would probably toss up between Amazon's Echo and Apple's AirPods, which goes to the notion that anyone that believes these companies aren't monopolies should just act are the only real product innovation taking place at Apple or Amazon, or does infinitely cheap capital, a channel that you control a captive base, the ability to put competitors out of business have anything to do with that.

No, it's a great product. It's a great product. I don't wear it as much. You know, I mean, people do wear it and they love it.

It's a good product. But I'm saying it's a great, it's an innovative, I don't see any, I tried every other year. I'll go anywhere on those. And they're just the best.

They really work the best. You know, but the thing is, you don't know that because the Bose in ear noise canceling product was as good, was as good or better, but it doesn't connect your iPhone as well. And the iPhone, what do you know? The whole, you're right.

But the whole ecosystem, no one else can, no one else can elbow their way in. And it's just, what is the probability that the two most innovative products of the last 10 years have to be from the two biggest monopolies? I mean, it was back to earnings of Apple revenues of 9%. And Apple Plus doesn't seem to be hurting even if it was a good investment.

People like that. It's sweat off their brow. It's sweat off their brow. That is a good investment.

And if they, and if they move more and more revenue to this recurring revenue services model, they've experienced multiple expansion. And you want to talk about the mother of all multiple expansion. Apple's earnings over the last 12 months are not up a lot, but the stock has doubled. So the marketplace here has recast Apple.

Why? Because they're starting to see signs of you guessed it, the Rundle model, right? So all of a sudden, it's not from a P and 12 to a P of 24, revenues have 9% earnings up, 19%. This is just a monster.

We're going to have to come. Microsoft's another one. I have Microsoft. Unbelievable.

Unbelievable. Catching up to Amazon in the cloud area. The cloud area. 62% year on your growth of Azure.

And this might be a seminal moment in business because of Amazon after the close of business today comes out with AWS earnings or AWS growth that is underwhelming. What you might see today is one of the greatest pivots or the greatest handing off the batons in kind of modern business. And I don't know if anyone will observe this. But if all of a sudden, if Azure is going 62% year on year and AWS reports lesson-style results today, we're going to see a new leader in the cloud, at least from a market standpoint.

It'll go from Amazon to Microsoft. And you're talking about the most profitable, fastest growing heart attack. And Microsoft may become crowned the leader in cloud this afternoon. They got Jedi, which is under controversy because of Trump attacking Amazon.

But then they also got Salesforce to have the marketing cloud service for Azure. For Azure to run it to be on the, you know, it's just, it's really interesting. Yes, they definitely. I think we're having, he's really, he's really doing the CEO has really joined the company on by focusing on things like this and not the other noisy stuff.

So you have Apple's background quarter. You have Microsoft unbelievable quarter. And then the only thing. Not Facebook.

But let's look at it. All right. Facebook growth. Look at it.

Explain what happened. It's off because it's growing, you know, it's up to billions of users. Right. The growth is up 25% year on year.

A company that's growing 25% year on year. It's top line on this type of revenue base is just extraordinary. It actually beat estimates on the top line. However, however, it's cost accelerated 50% which is compressed margins and dramatically compressed earnings.

It's the first, it's the first time it's had a full year of sub 30% growth. It's margins are compressing the piece of business. So the thing that people miss that I think was really or could signal what's ahead for Facebook was this $550 million class action suit. They settled around violation.

What? I know I was like, huh? Where'd that come from? Yeah, where'd that come from?

So the state of Illinois led a class action suit against people who filed a class action vis-a-vis an Illinois law saying you can't violate people's biometric privacy and biometric includes photos. So Facebook was uploading photos. And if you tag your one photo, they would use then use technology to put your name on photos elsewhere around the network, which is technically a violation. That's right.

And it's interesting and you'll love this because you're a privacy person. But I do find it's very interesting. The privacy experts are especially worried about violations of your biometrics because whereas you can change your credit card number, you can even change your social security number. You can't change your retina.

You can't change your fingerprints. And so they're very sensitive about what people do. Although some people say that the focus on photos is too much. It's not as, you know, all of it together is important.

You know what I mean? But biometric gets people going like, wait a minute. And I think it really does bring into sharp relief the power of Facebook or whoever is doing these things, you know, probably Amazon and Facebook and that regard. I think biometrics, everyone's like, hmm, they start to get uncomfortable with that part of it, even though everything else is being strafed from their personal data.

But this makes this hits home in a way a different way, I think. And this settlement was quite surprising. And I think they have more to come in other states about to see blood here. Despite this, Facebook did have a beat on the top and the bottom line.

But we're used to Facebook. The market is used to Facebook absolutely blowing away their earnings. And it's really the first time people say, well, it's the third time. They just met earnings.

And that's not true. One time they missed it was because they absorbed the full $5 billion from the FTC. Another time it was because they moved to a different accounting method. The market has become so used to Facebook blowing away all estimates.

And they didn't blow them away. They just slightly beat them. The stock was off 7% in after hours. Also, what was interesting, if you listen to the earnings call, was that the zuck took on a fairly defiant tone.

He didn't say, we've learned a lot here. We're going to have to make big changes or our moderation, our investment in privacy is paying off. He basically said, we have a rough year ahead of us. He sounded very, very defiant.

And it was sort of a little bit, I don't know. I thought it was very disappointing that Tony took. But basically, Apple... It was always like that.

I've listened to that tone so many times. They never can ever have any humility in that company. And he's not arrogant in a traditional sense. It's sort of...

I mean, he's clueless. He's like a 19-year-old that's never had done anything but started a company that became one of the wealthiest... No, because it's not the same thing. It's a really weird...

I can't even explain how irritating it is to listen to all of them. It's that interview that the Times did when I thought it was not a very good story on Adam Masari. But his quotes were like, I don't know. I just was like, oh, God, shut up.

Stop it. Can you entertain the fact that people have been nervous about you people? Like, what is wrong with all of you? You're getting in our way.

You're getting in our way. No, they have the... They have the... They dismiss you.

Your concerns about facial recognition as problematic. And then they turn around and pace them. And I'm sure they sat in that room. It's like, let's pay them off those assholes in Illinois or whatever.

Anyway, so last thing very quick before we get to the break. Let's talk about Amazon Uber and Lyft. Amazon reporting at the end of today. We're taping on a Thursday.

And so we will know by Friday. But also Uber and Lyft will actually be dropping their earnings reports at the beginning of February. Next week. What are you expecting trouble?

I'm sure. Amazon is going to be super interesting. I think everyone's going to be focused, very focused on the cloud. I just...

The March of Amazon, it'll be very interesting to see. What I think you'll see is if it doesn't... If it doesn't have a good quarter, I think people are going to start asking if Bezos has lost any focus. But he's...

Everyone's waiting on Amazon because Amazon is probably the most interesting company in the world right now. Uber and Lyft, I just think these companies have terrible business models and are... The gig economy really does represent all the digital exhaust with the carcinogen of tech moving to the third era of exploitation. So I'm going to be biased here because I don't like them.

And I hope that they... I hope that they... What's the term? Shit the bad.

But it's... We'll see. But I don't see any reason why they would report, especially... We'll see.

Maybe the expectations are so low. Mark Mahaney, who's an amazing internet analyst, actually thinks that the SOC is a buy, which I don't quite understand. I think what you will see over the course of the next 12 months though is I think they're going to exit the Eats business and try and sell it to somebody. I don't...

I don't think that... I think that market is consolidating and they need more focus. Really? And I think they're going to get out of it.

We'll see. We'll see. They need to have that business. It's an undifferentiated business with overfunded players and Uber needs to show some focus in margin growth in this core business, which probably could be a good business if it got much smaller.

Oh, by the way, I feel like a journalist. I'm getting tips. I'm hearing from a bunch of people domestically from Oyo who say that 75% of the sales staff has been laid off in the U.S. and that Oyo is starting its...

You have to confirm this. I need to teach you journalism, my friend. You can't just say it. The rumors you hear.

You know that, right? Who would I call? That would confirm it. Say more.

Yep, two of journalism. You can't just go, I'm hearing. I am so burnt. No.

That's one word. He played one word, Carl. I want to be deep throughout. Let's meet in the men's room.

Oh, God. You know what? In any case. I'm going to go.

I see what you mean. You can't just repeat rumors you hear. Just so you know. Why the hell not?

I'm not a journalist. I'm not a journalist. I'm the dog. I'm such a journalist.

I'm like, okay. If I want to jump on the table and grab that bone, I will. That is not good enough. I'm not up here.

I'm not up here. He's friendly. He's not. I will give you some tips when next we meet.

I do the information or you get a comment from the company. I'll help you with that. I'll help you with the basics. When we get back, we're going to listen to some listener mail about Huawei and wins and fails and predictions.

I'm Esteth Herndon and this is America, actually. We're all talking to each other to see what we do wrong. What do we not see? I'm in Washington, D.C.

this week to interview Ruben Gallego. He's a Democratic senator from Arizona and he's been thinking openly about running for higher office. But he's recently running to some hot water because of his connection to Congressman Eric Swalwell. I have to learn from this and I will learn from this.

But for me, it's not a 20-28 question. It's about what it means to be a better first boss in my office and also a better senator to my constituents. This week on America, actually, we asked Gallego about predatory behavior in Washington. His plans for immigration reform and more.

This week on Network In Chill, I'm breaking down the institution everyone's talking about right now, but nobody actually understands the Federal Reserve. With all the drama happening between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, you're probably seeing headlines and wondering what any of this has to do with your money. Spoiler alert, it's everything. I'll explain what the Fed actually is, why it exists, and how this one institution controls the interest rates on your mortgage, credit cards, student loans, and more.

We're diving into why raising or cutting rates isn't just boring policy talk. It's the difference between affording a house or watching prices spiral out of control. Plus, I'm breaking down the current controversy over firing Fed board members and why both Republicans and Democrats are freaking out about it because this fight isn't just political theater. It could mean real chaos for your wallet.

Listen, wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.com slash your rich BFF. Okay, we're back with listener male. Actually, it's a drop-in from Eric Anderson who cannot get enough of the mic. I got to watch my back, obviously.

Go to the day. Hey, Karen Scott. Last week, when I co-hosted, I mentioned how President Trump had discouraged U.S. companies from selling their semiconductor tech to Huawei.

Tech that could have helped them to quickly scale their 5G ambitions. Well, over the pond this week, Britain said it would not ban equipment made by Huawei from being used in its new high-speed 5G wireless network. This obviously is a hit for Mr. Trump.

Do you think America should double down on this campaign against Huawei or follow Britain's lead? So, Scott, I mean, Britain isn't, I guess, the relation to be Boris Johnson and Trump is not going well because they decided not to ban equipment made by Huawei being used in its new high-speed network. They said they're going to keep it away from the more sensitive areas, but it's obviously a hit and it looks like probably Europe is going that way, too, in different parts, even though there's a lot of pressure to bear that they've tried to do. But Huawei's going around the globe, and I think what's going to happen?

What do you think? It hasn't worked. The Trump administration's efforts here have failed miserably. I think this is the most important story of the week, and it represents a lot of things on a lot of levels.

And the first is that the damage being done here is similar to what you're saying about a defection of scientists and administration, our inability to attract the best and brightest as we continue to deny science. This is big because effectively what you have is the British have said, look, boss, if you're going to insult us, if you're going to insult our intelligence agencies, if you're not going to shake the hand of Angela Merkel, you know, eventually that shit comes back, you know, karma's a bitch. And so the strongest alliance in the world, the North Atlantic Treaty, is fraying because of the short-term mass clown behavior of our leadership. And we now have Britain, which has decided to say, okay, we are going to choose China.

And that is the US has basically said, there's something called the eyes of the five, and it's basically a bunch of nations who share intelligence as New Zealand, Australia, the US, Britain, and I forget one other. It seems like kind of the ultimate white guy's club. Like I'm sure Canada, Northern Norway are going to come somewhere. 100%.

And the British have basically said, okay, we're either going to give up US intelligence, which is what the State Department has been threatening, or we're going to have to deal with the economic retaliation of the Chinese, and they decided that the economic retaliation of the Chinese was more of a threat than losing US intelligence. This might be a seminal moment where we see the West or Europe start to choose China over their ally based on our poor decisions, our inability to continue to solidify relationships with our brothers and sisters and the greatest treaty over there. And also, if in fact, the China does supersede or ascend to the most powerful geopolitical force in the world, it will happen, but we won't realize or acknowledge it for 10 years, because as a nation we're a narcissist and we kind of think that the US is always number one. But looking back, if we were to say, what was a key moment in this?

It was when our probably our strongest ally in the world decided to choose China's economy over the US. And this is effectively what happened and what's a problem with it. The Chinese had basically corporate espionage in Germany, still IP from Motorola and Siemens, and then showed up to the British services and culture ministry, which for some reason oversees some of this infrastructure building and said, okay, we can offer you that same antenna or cell tower that you were paying 9 million for or 1.9 million. And they said, are you interested?

And they said, yeah, we're actually, that sounds pretty good. We're pretty interesting in Huawei, which is probably the least well-known juggernaut in the world. Huawei is the largest manufacturer of equipment that enables fifth-generation wireless technology, the largest equipment maker of technology that enables fifth-generation cellular. Let's just be clear, this is key technology, and we can't even compete here.

That's the thing, we can compete. So it's a really interesting problem. And it's just, and Europe's going to go that way. And again, it's all our own fault in that regard.

If someone said to the dog, you can own In-N-Out or you can own Huawei, I would of course speak In-N-Out because In-N-Out is awesome, but it would be a hard decision, Cara. All right, let's make one prediction on Huawei, this whole fifth-generation equipment thing. That means they're going to make like what you call a shit-ton bazillion gazillion dollars, and our strongest ally has chosen China, Cara. Here's the thing.

They're saying they're going to keep them away for the more sensitive areas. Good, good, freaking luck with that. And with the Chinese, I'm sorry. The only part I'm with is the administration on, and most administration, most intelligence people, is they are going to get in there and they're never going.

It's like a, it's a mold. Like they're going to stay in there and it's not going to ever. It's a really problematic, it's a really big deal. And the efforts by the Trump administration have been so ham-handed in dealing with this.

It's just not been so, it's like a lot of things. They're ineffective. Like it doesn't, like they say one, like it's like the North Koreans, like ineffective. It doesn't matter.

Blah, blah, blah. Ineffective. Like it doesn't get what we want. And so, you know, there we have it.

We're going to move. I would agree with you. This is important. It is a very important piece of pay attention to it.

So, wins and fails, wins and fails. I'm going to start. Go ahead. Bloomberg's ads yesterday were so funny.

On social media, he's all over social media. His numbers are going up. I know you're the Bloomberg man. I'm going to give it to you.

His numbers are up rather substantively. He's now moving into three and four. He's entered four and five or whatever. But he's right in there.

And these ads are fantastic. And so good. He had the dogs talking. Not where he shook the dog by the snap because I do that too.

Where he had the dogs. I like Mike. I like Mike. And then he had another one that was all in Spanish.

Then he had another one that was about, the only issue I have is a lot of different areas. There's one about John Bolton. There was one about healthcare. I forget.

I tweeted a whole bunch of them. And they were all fantastic. One about gay, big gay ice cream. There were funny ones.

They're really getting their mojo here. I have to say. And I think it's effective. I was sort of pretty interested in it.

I think he's going to really, if nobody wins an Iowa this week on Monday or there's no clear winner, he's going to have a big move on Super Tuesday, I think. Well, that's exactly right. We've said that path to that behind that prediction. Other candidates beat the shit out of each other, run out of money, exhaust themselves through Iowa and New Hampshire and then show up to Super Tuesday.

And there's a billionaire that's just got the best seats in the house and it's bought up all the airtime. And we go to an open convention. It's Bloomberg. You know what will be really interesting is the Super Bowl.

Trump's running an ad. Bloomberg's running an ad. It's going to give them the sense that that is already the foreground conclusion in the match that's coming. And it'll be sort of self-affilling prophecy.

I think they're doing a beautiful job of it. And we'll see. You know, I tweeted them and it was like, oh, he bought his win. I'm like, uh-huh.

Well, that's positive. I was like, well done to this. It's united. 100%.

Sorry. That's the way it goes on. I'd rather have him buy him. The world is going to make of it.

I know. So that is my win. My fail is not really fail. Facebook announced the oversight board.

They only pick the, they'll hear it this summer. They've selected an administrator who's exactly who you thought they would pick from an NGO. I think it is. And they haven't announced board members.

I've heard they were having people going back and forth when they were doing this board. You know, this is six months late, I think. This I've written about it before. So I'm just like, I'm still, is it really going to have an effect or is this a attempting village?

I'm still unclear on that. So the oversight board is really slow. And I think, you know, they're waiting for everything to die down on complaints about them. So I think that's a fail from my perspective.

No, I think that's kind of tremendous governance and make everything all right. And probably on its own, solve the anti-vax and climate problems that are largely being filled by Facebook that lives on rage. Yeah, I'm excited about that. They haven't asked me to be on it yet.

That's a shocker. You should be the next kind of, I want you to be the next head of the CDC when you meet people and shake their hand. You're like, don't touch me. Don't touch me.

Okay. So my fail, my fail. And this is a tough one. I have my heart broken this week.

As you know, there's no compensation. I talk a lot about Chipotle and I absolutely love the product. I eat there a lot. I think it's fantastic.

And there you go. And they were, they settled. Oh, yeah. The state of Massachusetts around some serious violations around child labor laws.

And as someone who has a 12 year old son and one of the things I'm most proud about it, my son is he's really excited about getting a job. And I had jobs from the age of basically 11 on it was a box boy. I had all, I delivered newspapers because, you know, I pretty early on, my mom did a good job of connecting work and money and a better life. And one of the things I love, or I'm really excited about is my son.

You know, we were at CVS and we went up to cashier and said, can I get a job? And I said, we have to be 14. And he said, okay. He's been telling us I got 17 months before I can work at CVS.

But anyways, the, it's, I would, and I don't want to be canceled culture. I don't want to just shame them. I love Chipotle and they love me. They sent me a card where I can do Chipotle and get it for a year free anything.

I can just eat up. Not anyway. And I love the company. I love the product.

So I think this is an opportunity for them to make a grand gesture and do something around supporting youth employment. And I would love to see the CSA. It was keeping people too late. It's having a lot of kids.

Right. But now a lot of kids work a lot. And a lot of kids. And there's nothing wrong with that.

That's a great thing. I think it's important. But I think this is an opportunity. There's only three things you have to remember in a crisis.

So now it's a problem to have the top guy or gal address it and to over correct. And so what I would like to say to this company that I love and to the leadership there, this is an opportunity to over correct and make an investment in youth employment across your network that is, does what it's supposed to do. And that is gives young people some additional income, gives them an opportunity to establish the grid, gives them an opportunity to reinforce what is one of the greatest brand attributes of America at a young age. And that is we work here.

We work. Yeah. So I would like, my fail that could be a win is to call on my brothers and sisters at a company. I absolutely love.

And I'm going to be clear. I got no compensation from them other than free burrito bowls, which I already have a huge compensation is for them to make a grand gesture and cover up. So well, good for you to go to turn on your eating place. I thought it was going to be canoes from Ken Rupert, whatever canoes that Rupert Murdoch.

Are you speaking Finnish? What are you doing? What are you talking about? Canoes?

Google News alternative. It's called canoes dot com. It's a news aggregation platform. They're trying to compete, I guess.

I'm not going to be back at your bank program. And top news outlets help smaller outlets, they believe that's going to be fair and balanced. Whatever. The name of it and the colors.

They have this yellow color that's just breaking your eye. I thought canoes was going to be that. I thought canoes was your going to attack. But I guess you don't care.

I'm not a complex person and then I came in the readable and child labor. I thought perhaps I thought that Ben Smith going to New York Times as me calling this leaving bus Buzzfeed, a big and poor one. That was interesting. Online media person.

You have no commentary about online media. Yeah, speaking of Buzzfeed, Buzzfeed, put pressure on Facebook. Someone went on Facebook and created a Facebook page devoted to the business of a 15-year-old's private parts. And she's been trying to get them to take it down for four years and finally Buzzfeed reported it and shamed them into taking it down.

So get for Buzzfeed, bad for Facebook. But that's the kind of shit that Facebook is levying across small instances of emotional havoc across the world. I don't know how even got this. Let's talk about my win.

Let's talk about my win. So unfortunately, because of all the news on Monday around the helicopter accident in the death of Kobe Bryant, it's overwhelmed the media airwaves. But Monday was also the 75th anniversary when the Russian Army liberated or liberated the wrong word, but discovered the camps at Auschwitz and Birkenau. And it's really, I think it's frightening to think about the history that repeats itself as a history we forget and the collision of ideology and propaganda and the demonization of immigrants and this cold comfort that it can't happen in a modern society.

Well, all of those things happened. It wasn't too long ago when they liberated. I was thinking about this today when they liberated or came to Auschwitz. My father was 15 years old.

He's still alive and he was living about an hour and a half away by today's dead transportation standard. So this could absolutely happen again, unless we remember. And the vehicles or the most effective means for remembrance has been the survivors. I remember going to temple with my mother at Temple, Isaiah and Westwood.

And every year they would honor the survivors and they would ask them to stand up and I'm no exaggeration. 35 or 40 people would stand up. The first apartment I rented in New York, the guy would come over and every time he'd come over and talk to us, he would show us the tattoo of his numbers on his arm. And they're all...

They're all dying. And I worry that... Well, you know what's incredible? There is a thing to do.

You're interrupting my Auschwitz story. Yes. Keep going. So my win is...

There was some great media stories, outlets, The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. I thought did really nice touching. And this is a difficult topic because the bottom line is people don't want to click on it. You're going to make more money elsewhere.

It's an upsetting thing. So this is the kind of story you think I'll read it later because it's just incredibly upsetting. But there is, you know, I feel as a non-practicing Jew, the one thing I've always thought that's really important for anyone who has a connection to Judaism, my mother's Jewish, is to ensure that even though we're losing the survivors that we make sure that this story and what happened here and it continues to move on such that we can recognize the dangers and have an intolerance and awareness for the type of fascism, which is defined by nationalism, demonization of immigrants, refusal to get in the way or stop violence against ethnic minority groups. It feels like all of those things are starting to rear their ugly head.

Totally. I mean, just... My win is a media outlet to keep it in our minds. That's what prevented people from stopping those camps earlier, America First, that was trying to not get us into that war at Charles Lindbergh and Joe Kennedy, those groups that were slowing down and it was the same phraseology about immigrants and not getting involved and not being global.

And it really is. And it's including the Supreme Court decision last week that the Trump administration, if you draw upon, you don't have, essentially, your poor and your draw upon social monies from the government, you might not be eligible to be an immigrant. And think about all those immigrants who came over after the Holocaust, who had nothing. And there was a great, there was a great thread on Twitter about someone's grandmother.

I think it was that came back and had no money and she created all these, she and her grandfather created all these businesses, but they had nothing when they got here. And that, to me, is just that the echoes of how important it was to bring those people here and allow them to thrive in this country after such an incredible tragedy. At the commemoration, they had all of these world leaders there that, and it's become very political. It's basically Putin is accusing Poland of not taking more responsibility.

And Poland is now self-conscious and angry about it. And at this commemoration, Ronald Lauder, who's one of the family members of a lot of family, he stood up and he said something very powerful. He was talking about a lot of the demonization of immigrants and anti-Semitism around the world now. And he said, this is not a metaphor, it's a recurrence.

And when he said that, all of the survivors immediately leapt to their feet and began clapping and all the people on stage and all the world leaders looked very shamed, which they should be. But this is, anyways, my win is the media companies that are foregoing clicks and money and clickbait to talk about these important stories and ensure that when we no longer have those stories from the survivors of the stories continue, and I was especially moved by actually some of the reporting from the Western Journal of the Post and The New York Times. It's all media that takes their journalism serious in the role in society. Because quite frankly, Monday, all the stories, all of the online media was totally overwhelmed by Kobe.

And everybody has the right to mourn for whoever they want, however they want, but I worry that story got a bit buried. Yeah, I agree. I think it's a critically important point. It's similar.

It can never be covered enough. And making these links today are critical because it's systemic. It's ongoing. It is a plague.

It's a plague of humanity, of human morality, really, to bring it back to the world. It just is. It just never goes away. And people think it does.

And you just see the, you know, you don't want to say everything is the same, but it is in lots of ways. That's very deep. Between Chipotle and this. You're very woke.

You're a social justice warrior, Scott Galloway. Yeah, that's me. That's me. That's me.

You are. Secretly you hate capitalism. Capitalism wrapped in empathy and democracy is the engine for all good care. I think that's socialism.

Touché! Touché! I know you're a Bernie bro underneath. You're Bloomberg love.

If that's true. I'm a closeted Bernie Brolin. I don't even know it. Oh.

There you go. Scott. When I'm 55, I'm going to tell my wife I'm moving in with a socialist named Javier. Okay.

That's great. That'll be, that'll come to your wedding. Listen, your prediction. We need a prediction.

We've got to get out of here. You made one a little bit. The Uber Eats thing. That was kind of came out of the side there.

I'm going to get out. I've not heard that from them. They think it's a big growth business. Oh my God.

Well, if you have another prediction, please make it. No, no, that's my prediction. That makes, that makes, that makes right. How do you buy?

That is a bold prediction. They already sold, they already sold their food delivery business in India, I believe. So they're already starting to divest themselves from this business. Yeah.

I don't think they double down. I think they get out. I'm just telling, he talked about it on stage in the, essentially their future and their Hail Mary and everything else. Uber Eats was their growth.

Yes. Yep. I'm just saying, I agree with you. I think it's just a crazy business in terms of the competitors and where it's going from Amazon to everybody.

You know, just everybody is in this business. What does Gary Swisher up to this week? Oh, we can't. Oh, we can't.

We can't. Nothing. My kids or my one son is going to visit his girlfriend away somewhere else. And my other son is going to Vegas for debate club.

So I have a lovely weekend with mine. So those are terms you never hear in the same sentence. Vegas and debate club. That's where he's going.

You never hear that. Vegas and debate club. You don't hear that? I don't understand it.

I just wrote the check. Anyway, he's very, he's preparing for it. I don't know. The big club is good.

They're both. So I'm just going to hang out and just lie around on my back, trying to cover it from this ridiculous goal. What are you doing Scott? We're moving.

So it's a, this is an awful weekend and a super bowl down here on Monday. So I might go to this. Oh, that's right. It's a super bowl.

It's the San Francisco Giants. The Giants. The San Francisco Giants. Is that a personal joke?

Did you actually just say that? The San Francisco Giants. No, I was teasing you because I hate sports. Well done.

It's the Chiefs, right? And I didn't realize, unfortunately, my nine year old is getting better at soccer and he's joined this demonic instrument called a traveling team. And I'm spending Saturday and Sunday in Palm Beach Gardens both days. I'm like, I'm not going.

And then it's, I didn't realize. Traveling. I never let my kids get near that. Oh my gosh.

Unfortunately, he's getting, it's just terrible. I'm going to have to sneak in. I don't know and kneecap him or something because he's becoming a better athlete, which is really infringing on my leisure time. Oh, you're going to traveling.

Oh, sorry. Right. Right. That's a speaking of plagues.

That's a, oh God, traveling teams. You will go everywhere. And they're far. It's like always at two hours.

Yeah. And then there's one game at 10 and one game at two, which gives us enough time to like go to go get a book and then go back. Make sure the kids are not working so much. Makes some money.

Anyways, Scott. Yeah. Scott, can you please read the, uh, read the credits, please? I will talk to you next week.

We'll talk about the Super Bowl and the ads. The Trump ad and the Bloomberg ad there's so much to talk about. And then obviously impeachment is still going. Oh, yeah, that's right.

There's a lot going on there. Yeah. We'll talk about it Monday after you get back from your traveling team and vote late eating. Please read the credits.

Today's show is produced by Rebecca Sonones. Erica Anderson is Pivot's executive producer. Thanks also to Rebecca Castro and Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts or if you're on Android, check us out on Spotify or frankly wherever you listen to podcasts.

If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

The Founder Hub Sonia & Alana The Founder Hub Podcast goes behind the scenes of founders and their start up journeys, sharing their little gold nuggets of their successes, and how to pivot around adversity, keeping it real and leaving no stone unturned.We are passionate about engaging and creating. We love people, and connecting like-minded people! We thrive off elevating one along their journey and exploring different avenues to success. We are excited to bring you the best of our amazing guests who will span across a range of industries & businesses from services & product based.Starting a business can be a lonely road but it doesn’t have to be, join us weekly to get your juices flowing. The Legacy Lounge Live – Episode 10: Multiple Streams of Income Tasha Rodriguez In this episode of The Legacy Lounge Live, we dive into real, practical ways to create additional income—no degree required. This conversation is rooted in strategy, discipline, and building income that works for you, not the other way around.Featuring a powerhouse panel across real estate, finance, life insurance, notary services, and entrepreneurship, we break down how everyday people can tap into opportunities and turn skills into income streams.From notary businesses and flood adjusting to real estate investing, life insurance, car rentals, Airbnb, and even crypto—this episode gives you a clear, honest look at what’s possible and how to get started the right way.Whether you’re trying to supplement your income, pivot careers, or build long-term wealth, this episode is about moving with intention and building something that lasts.One stream covers bills. Multiple streams build legacy. Breaking Into Cybersecurity Christophe Foulon, Renee Small It’s really a conversation about what they did before, why did they pivot in cyber, what was the process they went through Breaking Into Cybersecurity, how do you keep up, and advice/tips/tricks along the way.About Breaking Into Cybersecurity: This series was created by Renee Small &  Christophe Foulon to share stories of how the most recent cybersecurity professionals are breaking into the industry. Our special editions are us talking to experts in their fields and cyber gurus who share their experiences of helping others break-in.Check out our new book, Develop Your Cybersecurity Career Path: How to Break into Cybersecurity at Any Level: https://amzn.to/3443AUI About the hosts:   Renee Small is the CEO of Cyber Human Capital, one of the leading human resources business partners in the field of cybersecurity, and author of the Amazon #1 best-selling book, Magnetic Hiring: Your Company's  Secret Weapon to Attracting Top Cyber Security Talent. She is committed to helping leaders clos JimJim's Reinvention Revolution Podcast JimJim Explore the process of reinvention in the digital age as it relates to career, creativity and technology impact on daily life. Interviews with professionals, entrepreneurs, and creatives who have re-imagined success and are making a pivot. Hear insights about their inspiration, turning point and how the new digital world has helped or hurt them. Subscribe for weekly interviews about Reinvention, Creative Inspiration, Breaking Through, Digital Landscape, Entrepreneurship.

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This episode was published on January 31, 2020.

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Kara and Scott talk about the Congressional Budget Office projecting that the U.S. budget deficit will pass the $1 trillion threshold in 2020. They also get into tech earnings, who did well last quarter, and what we can expect going forward. In...

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