US Proposes 10 to 12.5 Percent Tariffs on EU Imports Under Forced Labor Investigation in 2026

Listeners, the United States–European Union tariff landscape is shifting again, and it is happening squarely in the shadow of Donald Trump’s aggressive trade agenda. According to Grant Thornton’s June 9, 2026 analysis, the U.S. Trade Representative has proposed new across‑the‑board tariffs in the range of about 10 to 12.5 percent on imports from roughly 60 trading partners, explicitly including the European Union, as part of a sweeping forced‑labor related investigation. Grant Thornton notes that the investigation’s conclusions would increase ad valorem tariff rates on products from major partners such as the EU, Canada, Mexico, China, and Japan, with public comments due in early July and a hearing set shortly after. Fredrikson & Byron’s June 5, 2026 trade update explains that Washington is effectively creating a two‑tier system: economies that have strong, enforceable bans on forced labor, or agree to them, face an additional 10 percent tariff, while all other economies face 12.5 percent on all covered products, with only a limited exclusion list spelled out in the Federal Register notice. For European companies, that means even long‑established supply chains into the United States now carry a fresh layer of cost and uncertainty. The Conference Board’s policy backgrounder on the forced‑labor tariff proposal underscores that the new EU‑targeting measures largely mirror earlier Trump‑era tools, but with broader discretion for the White House to ratchet pressure up or down sector by sector. Brookings Institution research on Trump’s tariff policy finds that the trade‑weighted average U.S. tariff jumped from about 2.6 percent in early 2025 to over 13 percent by early 2026, transforming what used to be a relatively low‑tariff environment into one dominated by targeted duties on steel, aluminum, autos, and a widening circle of manufactured goods. Grant Thornton also reports that, in parallel, the administration has trimmed some legacy Trump‑era Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs from 25 percent to about 15 percent, with the possibility of a 10 percent rate if at least 85 percent of the metal content is U.S.‑origin. For EU exporters, that creates a powerful incentive to re‑engineer products around American inputs just to remain price‑competitive in the U.S. market. Trade lawyers at Fredrikson highlight that USTR is even floating a textile and apparel mechanism that would allow limited volumes from certain economies to enter at a reduced Section 301 tariff rate, injecting yet another layer of complexity for European fashion and textile firms. All of this leaves transatlantic business in a familiar but uncomfortable place: navigating a Trump‑driven tariff regime that is no longer a temporary shock, but an evolving system of leverage, conditional relief, and politically framed exceptions. European policymakers are already weighing calibrated responses, from WTO consultations to their own targeted measures, even as EU industry lobbies for sector‑specific relief and clearer rules of the game. Thanks for tuning in to European Union Tariff News and Tracker, and remember to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a quiet please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai. For more check out https://www.quietperiodplease.com/ Avoid ths tariff fee's and check out these deals https://amzn.to/4iaM94Q