USDA Forecasts Lower Grain Prices, Expands Disaster Aid & SNAP Changes Coming in 2023

Big news from the Department of Agriculture this week: Now that the government shutdown has ended, the USDA has finally released its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, or WASDE—a pivotal snapshot for everyone who eats, farms, or follows the food business. The headline? Wheat and corn prices are projected to stay below average. For instance, when the report hit, the Chicago Board of Trade corn contract dipped, only to bounce back the next day. That’s a sign the market seems to be taking these supply and demand numbers in stride. Analysts at UkrAgroConsult highlight that the wheat stock-to-use ratio for the U.S. rose to 44%, compared to a sixteen-year average of 41%. Globally, the wheat ratio ticked up to 33%, slightly below the long-term average, underscoring plenty of overall supply. But this week wasn’t just about forecasts. After a long delay caused by the government shutdown, the USDA also rolled out Stage 2 of its 2023-24 Disaster Relief Program. Agriculture Undersecretary Richard Fordyce announced that this stage will cover crop and livestock losses missed in the first round, including milk and crops stored on farms but lost in recent storms or floods. The Milk Loss Program now offers up to $1.65 million to affected dairy producers. Importantly, payment limits are in place, but specialty crop growers—think fruits, nuts, and grapes—will see higher limits, which officials hope will help keep these high-value farms in business after a tough year. Fordyce emphasized that aid is “factored” based on loss and policy participation, and there won’t be any progressive factoring by race or ethnicity—a shift from prior disaster programs. On the policy front, the USDA just issued new memorandums outlining big changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program—SNAP—set to take effect next November. According to the National Association of Workforce Development Professionals, work requirements will expand to adults up to age 64, while exemptions will now only apply to children under 14. SNAP waivers for insufficient job opportunities are being tightened, and changes to SNAP’s benefit calculation formula and cost-sharing with states are scheduled as well. The USDA is also proposing new rules for what retailers must stock to better serve SNAP customers, as Secretary Brooke Rollins said is part of modernizing the Food and Nutrition Service. So what does all this mean for you? American families struggling with food costs might see changes in SNAP eligibility and benefit levels, while farmers and rural businesses can expect more flexibility in disaster aid but also new requirements for insurance. State governments will need to gear up for administrative changes and potentially higher local spending as federal cost-sharing is reduced, while businesses will see a more competitive environment for food retail and crop production. Internationally, agreements negotiated during the shutdown with China, South Asia, and Japan are be