What are Some Problems with Conspiracy Theories?

There are several problems with conspiracy theories, which are outlined in this episode.

An episode of the TOKTalk.net podcast, hosted by ok, titled "What are Some Problems with Conspiracy Theories?" was published on August 5, 2009.

August 5, 2009 · TOKTalk.net

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Summary

http://www.toktalk.net/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/MP3/028-toktalk-conspiracy-theories.mp3 There are several problems with conspiracy theories, which are outlined in this episode. I want to start this episode with a little example. Imagine that you are walking in the forest and that you see a burning tree. I give you two possible explanations: Somebody dropped a burning cigarette and accidentally set the tree on fire. The government tested a secret weapon, which accidentally set the tree on fire. Which one of these two explanations is the better one, and why is it better? Many would probably say that the first explanation is the more reasonable one, but why is it more reasonable? The second explanation could be correct as well! Maybe there is a secret weapons program, and we don’t know about it! Could it be that the first explanation, with somebody dropping a burning cigarette, is too “normal” to be true? There just has to be more to it, right? Well, as a matter of fact, the first explanation is indeed the better one and is more likely to be correct. The reason is, that it is the simpler explanation, and it is based on fewer assumptions. Remember, you should always go with the simplest possible explanation. The second explanation, the secret weapons program, is a conspiracy theory and requires several assumptions. You have to assume that such a weapons programs indeed exists in the first place, you have to assume that the government was able to keep it secret, you have to assume that they tested the weapon, you have to assume that the weapon hit the tree and that it was able to set the tree on fire. There are simply too many assumptions that can not be verified. The person dropping a cigarette requires far fewer assumptions and is therefore to be preferred. This is called “Ockham’s Razor”, named after 13th century philosopher William of Ockham. To put it in easier words – don’t make the issue more complicated then necessary. Go with the simplest explanation that explains the observations. Do not look for complicated explanations, even if these explanations are more “exciting” or “interesting”. It is now July 2009, and 40 years after the first moon landing. A moon landing, which, according to some people, never took place. Yes, there are some folks out there who claim that the moon landing is a conspiracy, it never happened! All the pictures and films of the moon landing, in their view, were made inside a studio. The rocket did start, for all the world to see, but the astronauts were only placed into an orbit around the earth, and never really went to the moon. In the meantime, filming started in a studio on earth. After several days the astronauts returned from their orbit and their space capsule landed inside the ocean to be picked up. There are countless other examples of conspiracy theories, here are some examples: The Chemtrails conspiracy: This conspiracy started back in 1996. You have already noticed that high flying airplanes make condensation trails of water vapor, which are nothing more than clouds. If you remember your chemistry, the burning of fuel (or any organic substance) produces carbon dioxide gas and water. Now, conspiracy theorists claim, that these condensation trails are in reality some chemical or biological agent, which the government sprays on the population – for whatever reason. Of course the governments refuted these claims, but for conspiracy theorists, this is even more evidence that they have something to hide. The 9/11 conspiracy: This one states that the 9/11 attacks were an “inside job” and that the US government itself was responsible for it. The conspiracy theorists came up with many “proofs” all of which turned out to be wrong. Global warming conspiracy theory: Global warming is not really taking place, or CO2 is not responsible for it – it’s all a lie. Princess Diana: She died in a traffic accident in 1996. Conspiracy theorists say [...]