What Predicts Midterm Election Results?

The 2026 election will decide who controls the Ho…

An episode of the The Science of Politics podcast, hosted by Niskanen Center, titled "What Predicts Midterm Election Results?" was published on March 4, 2026 and runs 56 minutes.

March 4, 2026 ·56m · The Science of Politics

Summary

The 2026 election will decide who controls the House and Senate for the duration of Trump's presidency. Trump's approval is low and public opinion is moving against his policy ideas. The historical pattern suggests Democrats are on the way to big congressional gains. Carlos Algara studies 80 years of high-frequency data on generic ballot polls and election results. Presidential approval and the ideological direction of public opinion consistently predict congressional vote choices. Like this year, both usually move against the president in midterms. Neither economic statistics and perceptions nor the degree of partisan competition matters independently of those patterns. Generic ballot polls reliably predict seat gains, though a lot more for the House than the Senate.

Episode Description