Why Crude Is Falling Despite the Iran Crisis

Lucas and Luna unpack a head-scratcher: crude oil is down 10% in a week even as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate. They trace the move to a specific supply-side story—how market participants are pricing in a ceasefire extension before President Trump signs off. The conversation touches on the divergence between Brent and WTI, why the selloff accelerated on low volume, and what the backwardation curve is telling us about physical barrels versus paper barrels. Lucas shares a 2023 analog from the Russia-Ukraine grain deal that helps explain the pattern: when a risk premium is priced in early, the actual news becomes a sell-the-fact event. Luna asks whether this breakdown in the usual war-risk playbook means oil traders have become too complacent. The episode ends with a look at the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking down to 2.39, which may signal that the market sees lower energy costs filtering through to core inflation. No hot takes, just a calm walk through the mechanics of one of the week's strangest market moves. #CrudeOil #BrentCrude #WTICrude #IranCrisis #CeasefireExtension #OilMarkets #Commodities #Backwardation #SellTheFact #RiskPremium #Inflation #BreakevenRate #FOMC #EnergyMarkets #TradingPsychology #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo