Why India's GDP data can't be believed

In A Sixth of Humanity, political scientist Devesh Kapur and economist Arvind Subramanian set out to do something ambitious: chart India’s development journey from Nehru to Modi.In this episode of Adda, they sit down with Shoaib Daniyal and break down the four stages of India’s development. Starting with Nehru’s planned economy, which they argue did not do what it set out to: import substitution. Rather than create a safe space for Indian industry to grow and then eventually take on international competition, it ended up nearly killing the private sector.Interestingly, Modi might be doing something similar now by promoting so-called national champions like Adani and Ambani. Again, by allowing them to largely play in the domestic space, rather than making them take on international competition, these firms are not adding to India’s growth story.Most shockingly, however, Kapur and Subramanian argue that India’s GDP growth has ground to a halt over the last decade or so, with them estimating that average growth has been only around 3%. For context, official data reported that India’s real GDP grew 8.2% in the second quarter of 2025-26.Contribute to Scroll's studio fund: https://pages.razorpay.com/scrollstudiofundProducer: Aryan MahttaEditor: Hyder HabibHost: Shoaib DaniyalWe welcome your comments at [email protected]. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.