Why Return-to-Office Didn't Bring Canadians Back to Big Cities

Why are so many young Canadian families leaving Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal? Even after return-to-office mandates, the exodus from Canada's largest cities continues.In this episode of Classonomics, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux explore the data behind Canada's urban migration trends and debate why affordability isn't the only factor driving people away. They discuss housing costs, crime and public safety, mental health, community, urban planning, and whether government policies are making sprawl even worse.Topics covered:Why Canadians are leaving the GTA, Metro Vancouver, and MontrealWhy return-to-office hasn't reversed the trendHousing affordability and the shortage of family-sized homesCrime, public safety, and quality of life in big citiesMental health, community, and life satisfactionUrban growth boundaries, the Greenbelt, and sprawlWhy smaller cities are attracting young familiesWhat policymakers are getting wrong about housing and urban planningSubscribe for more conversations on housing, economics, public policy, and the future of Canada.Chapters: 00:00 The Great Canadian Family Exodus01:05 Mike's Biggest Prediction Miss03:05 Why Millennials Are Leaving Cities04:17 Is Toronto Becoming Too Chaotic?06:22 Does Crime Make Families Move?09:44 Are Small Towns Better for Mental Health?11:57 Why Community Matters More Than Ever14:32 It All Comes Back to Housing15:35 The Greenbelt's Unintended Consequences17:29 When Good Environmental Policy Goes Wrong18:40 The Case for Evidence-Based PolicyResearch/links:Housing is a large part of the story. The OECD has examined this:https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/2025/05/oecd-economic-surveys-canada-2025_ee18a269/full-report/improving-housing-affordability_3d430d2e.htmlAs has Statistics Canada: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/241119/dq241119b-eng.htm Remote Work and Employment Dynamics under COVID-19: Evidence from Canada https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7971424/Upjohn Institute: https://www.upjohn.org/remote-works-quiet-impact-rural-communitiesC.D. Howe: https://cdhowe.org/publication/settling-new-normal-working-home-across-canada/ Social ties and quality of life, including lower rates of depression: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2025002/article/00003-eng.htm https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20376426/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-design/article-why-some-people-are-choosing-country-life-over-the-city/ Though evidence is nuanced: https://www.cmaj.ca/content/184/17/E889 Crime and disorder:https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/urban-violent-crime-report-comparing-crime-across-canadian-cities-volume-2/https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2025001/article/00005-eng.htm McDonald-Laurier Report: https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/Urban-Violent-Crime-Report_Final.pdf Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina MaddeauxProduced by Meredith MartinFunded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/