Why Speculation Drives Markets

Short-termism makes it so these boom-bust cycles have to bust at some point - we get collectively distracted by something else, and go look at that instead. But the beautiful thing about short-termism and speculation is that it allows more capital to enter the system. And there is the potential for that capital to be directed to something more productive, and to change the lives of so many people. Because we are humans, we are storytellers. We know how to create fiction - we know how to live lives driven by the collective belief of assets. Speculation is not net-bad. As Emil Cioran says: “Man starts over again everyday, in spite of all he knows, against all he knows.” The market is cyclical - we humans are cyclical, so the systems we build are too. I don’t know if it will be a spectacular boom-bust, but I do think there is a huge oppprtunity to rethink market systems and capital allocation - and design them in way that optimizes for the (rather tough) goal of happiness. I don’t know what that looks like. Maybe speculation is the future, but I do think as things crumble and current systems get stretched, we have the huge chance to rebuild them.