Will a war with Iran push mortgage rates higher or lower?

from The Brutally Honest Loan Officers · host Stephen Brock and Derick Brown

When geopolitical tensions rise, investors react — and the bond market moves. Since mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, global conflict can absolutely influence home loan rates. In this episode of The Brutally Honest Loan Officers Podcast, we break down: • How wars historically impact interest rates • What a “flight to safety” means for mortgage rates • Why U.S. Treasury bonds matter • How oil prices and inflation change the equation • The role of the Strait of Hormuz in global energy supply • Why markets sometimes ignore geopolitical headlines • What will actually drive mortgage rates in 2026 Many people assume war automatically means higher rates. Historically, that’s not always true. In some cases, global conflict has actually pushed mortgage rates LOWER — at least temporarily. But inflation, oil prices, Federal Reserve policy, and economic data still matter more long term. If you’re thinking about buying a home, refinancing, or trying to time the market, this episode will help you understand what really drives mortgage rates.

What this episode covers

When geopolitical tensions rise, investors react — and the bond market moves. Since mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, global conflict can absolutely influence home loan rates. In this episode of The Brutally Honest Loan Officers Podcast, we break down: • How wars historically impact interest rates• What a “flight to safety” means for mortgage rates• Why U.S. Treasury bonds matter• How oil prices and inflation change the equation• The role of the Strait of Hormuz in global energy supply• Why markets sometimes ignore geopolitical headlines• What will actually drive mortgage rates in 2026 Many people assume war automatically means higher rates. Historically, that’s not always true. In some cases, global conflict has actually pushed mortgage rates LOWER — at least temporarily. But inflation, oil prices, Federal Reserve policy, and economic data still matter more long term. If you’re thinking about buying a home, refinancing, or trying to time the market, this episode will help you understand what really drives mortgage rates.