Will Democrats sweep Virginia's 2025 elections?

State of play + recent eventsTwo weeks ago, if you had asked me who was going to win the elections in Virginia this November, I would have confidently said Democrats are likely to sweep races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and expand their majority in the House of Delegates. The state usually votes against the party of the president, and Democrats are up big in the polls. Easy math, right?Well, things might not be so easy now. Recent events have shaken up state politics, and a sweep is now in doubt.Notably, last week, text messages from 2022 surfaced showing Jay Jones (the Democratic candidate for attorney general) “joking” about shooting the then–Speaker of the House, Todd Gilbert: “three people, two bullets. gilbert, hitler, pol pot,” Jones wrote. “gilbert gets two bullets in the head.” Political bettors gave Jones a 92% chance of winning two weeks ago, but now put the odds at 50-50. And despite an apology from Jones and denouncement by Abigali Spanberger, the Democratic candidate for governor, the messages were a big topic of the debate between her and Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears on Thursday night, Oct. 9. The smart money still has Spanberger as an overwhelming favorite.Given the national conversation about political violence right now, the issue has staying power. President Donald Trump has called on Jay Jones to drop out of the race.Do scandals matter in our polarized politics?But how much does this really matter? Do Democrats simply have an indomitable turnout advantage in off-year elections now? Will the AG race be decided by “fundamentals” like Trump’s approval and the state of the economy? (Unemployment in Virginia has grown for 7 months in a row.)To make sense of all of this, I asked my friend and Virginia politics expert Chaz Nuttycombe to come on a live podcast episode for Strength In Numbers recorded Friday afternoon, Oct. 10. Chaz is an election forecaster and the founder of State Navigate, a non-profit devoted to sharing data about state legislatures (think roll call votes, district demographics, campaign finance — that kind of stuff). He’s a knowledgeable voice on Virginia politics with a good track record.Chaz and I get into the nitty-gritty of the races and balance the predictors for next month’s elections. We also talk about what the outcome could mean for Trump and 2026.I hope you enjoy our conversation above. Thanks to Chaz for coming! Share and subscribe if you want to see more conversations like this one. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe