2 Question Tuesday Presented by Focused Wealth Management

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Friday’s jobs report which said nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April, down from the 185,000 created in March, and what these numbers tell us about the economy. Then they talk about the expectation that the Senate will confirm Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair for a four-year term this week, how this will affect interest rates, and what the market reaction will be.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss while gross domestic product grew 2% in the first quarter, the geopolitical situation risks tempering growth as inflation-weary consumers become more guarded, and how will this change the consumer spending contribution to GDP. They then talk about whether deficits matter after Fitch Ratings warned the market that the US’s credit rating faces the challenges of a widening deficit that leaves its debt burden “far above” other nations that share its AA score.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s comments about how gas prices could remain elevated until 2027 and what long-term effects this will have on the economy? They then discuss President Trump’s nominee to head the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, and his desire to have the Fed adopt a new approach to measuring inflation called trimmed averages, and if this just about shifting the goalposts to make it easier to cut rates?Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the stock market’s huge rally on the possibility of a peace agreement in the Iran War, even though the aftershocks of the oil crisis haven’t hit yet and will potentially affect the global economy in a negative way. They then talk about the abrupt resignation of the SEC’s head of enforcement, just six months into her term, raising questions about the agency’s ability to root out financial wrongdoing.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how the Iran War caused the latest jump in inflation, how much higher they expect inflation to rise, and what this will do to the U.S. economy. They then talk about the private credit market which is facing an unprecedented surge in withdrawal requests from their investors and why this is happening.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Bloomberg and Forbes both quoting Phil last week on what he think about large-cap technology stocks with all the volatility at this moment. They then talk about  last week’s jobs report, which exceeded economists’ expectations threefold, and what this means for the market going forward.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the recent ruling that found social media company Meta and video streaming service YouTube negligent in a landmark case that said their products were addictive, and what affect this will have on the broader social media industry. They then talk about the rare occurrence when all three stock market benchmarks fall below their 200-day moving averages at the same time, which happened last week.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the rising price of oil as the Iran War continues and the roller coaster ride we’re seeing in the stock market. With most of the stock market ‘s benchmark indexes falling nearly 10%, which indicates a market correction, they ponder whether the stock and bond markets will continue to fall. They then talk about why the prices of gold and silver are falling even as inflation is rising.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the sharp revision down in gross domestic product, the missed expectations, the rise in the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, the rise in the price of oil, and the outlook for interest rates. Will they go higher? They then talk about the biggest macroeconomic risks facing the U.S. economy right now? Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the price of oil climbing as high as $130 a barrel and what the repercussions for the global economy will be if the price stays above $100. They then talk about how the Federal Reserve will react to Friday’s jobs report which showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, one of the largest declines since the pandemic, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, combined with fears the energy markets will drive inflation higher.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035. 

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss a theory that the U.S. bombing of Iran over the weekend, combined with the attack on Venezuela, are part of a strategy to cut off oil supplies to Cuba and China, with the hope of overturning Cuba’s government and China’s economic growth. They then talk about Iranian drones attacking oil refineries in the Mideast and what the significant risks to the global economy are right now.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the Supreme Court’s ruling that President Trump’s tariffs are illegal. They delve into the potential for the government to unwind trade deals and pay billions of dollar in refunds, as well as the president’s new tariff regime. They then talk about what effect the State of the Union will have on the economy.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Chinese regulators advising banks to rein in their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, citing concerns over concentration risk, market volatility, the safe haven status of U.S. debt, and the appeal of the dollar. Then they talk about the plan by President Trump and several governors to compel technology companies to fund new power plants, what happened to the plan, and would this hurt technology stocks?Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about last week’s roller coaster in the stock market and Goldman Sachs’ prediction that there will much more selling this week due to trend-following algorithmic funds. They then discussed last month’s 118% increase in job cubs from a year ago, the largest number of job cuts for any January since the depths of the Great Recession, and why the stock market is ignoring these numbers?Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick as Federal Reserve chief, and will the world markets feel that President Trump is taking control of the Fed? They then talk about the increased geopolitical risk in the world with the president’s moves against Venezuela, Greenland, and NATO.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035. 

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the Department of Justice’s lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell. Will this take the country closer to presidential control of the Fed, and a subsequent weakening of the dollar, and if so, should portfolios be rebalanced with more international exposure? They then discuss the two latest blow-ups in the world of private credit, Blackrock TCP and an Apollo Global Management deal, and how they could affect the stock and bond markets.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about capital leaving the U.S. -- sparking a big drop in the financial markets -- as President Trump’s comments on Greenland spark fear of a trade war, the end of NATO, and what Europe’s response will be. They then discuss why U.S. homebuilders’ confidence fell unexpectedly in January, despite lower mortgage rates and the president’s housing proposals.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about what it will mean to America, the world, and the financial markets if the Iranian regime is toppled because of this nationwide wave of protests. They then discuss whether President Trump’s order directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, combined with a proposed ban on private equity buying single-family homes, would be enough to save the housing market.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035. 

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about why the financial markets rallied in the wake of the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and what this means for the price of oil. They then discuss why Americans think the economy is not doing well even as economic indicators say otherwise, especially the very strong GDP number.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry look back at market in 2025 and talk about what their biggest surprise was this past year. They also discuss what was the biggest lesson they learned about markets this year.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Focused Wealth Management’s best market calls of 2025. They then talk about how third-quarter gross domestic product grew so much higher than Wall Street expected.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates last week and should we expect more rate cuts before Jerome Powell steps down as Fed Chair. They then talk about how Oracle’s earnings report last week sparked the current sell-off in tech stocks and if this AI sell-off will continue.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why private equity firms are extracting cash from their portfolio companies by relying on alternative methods and what negative implications this will have on the market and economy. They then talk about the possibility of Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, becoming the new chairman of the Federal Reserve when Jerome Powell leaves.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why Japanese government bonds tumbled yesterday, pushing the two-year yield to more than 1%, its highest level since 2008. They then talk about why silver prices have doubled since the start of the year, outpacing gold and surging to a record high on Monday.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss all the negative reports coming out, such as consumer sentiment hitting its lowest point in 16 years, and why it feels like we’re in a recession when GDP is expected to grow this year. They then talk about why the market fell after Nvidia posted great earnings and gave forecasts higher than Wall Street expected.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss whether artificial intelligence is driving the surge in U.S. GDP growth. They then talk about how the Nasdaq has dropped 6% and the S&P 500 is down about 4%, and whether we are heading into a correction or just letting some air out of the AI bubble.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the 175% surge in layoffs in October, the biggest one-month reduction in 20 years, and what it means for the economy. They then talk about how a K-shaped stock market coinciding with a K-shaped economy is affecting economic growth.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what it means that the Federal Reserve is ending quantitative tightening, why it’s doing it, and why QT won’t add to inflation. They then talk about news articles declaring the 60% stock/40% bond portfolio to be dead.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why gold posted its largest one-day drop in more than a decade. They then talk about the latest inflation numbers which climbed to more than 3% and whether this will hurt the prospect of more interest rate cuts this year.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why Phil and Mike are wearing ties and what FEMU is, the firm, economic and market update. They then talk about why regional banks fell on Thursday, bank fraud, what are non-depository financial institutions, or NDFIs, and will we see something similar to the bank crisis in 2023.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the bankruptcy of auto supplier First Brands, which owes $10 billion to some of Wall Street’s biggest names, the risks and lack of transparency in its deals, and if this will affect the financial markets. They then talk about why the market took a dive on Friday and if this downward trend will continue.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why the market is rallying after the government shut down started. They then talk about how gold and stocks are not usually correlated, and what it means that they are both rallying together.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the new $100,000 fee to apply for H-1B visas, which are required in many industries to allow foreigners to fill temporary jobs, especially in technology, and how this will affect the tech sector. They then talk about how the market will react if we have a government shutdown combined with mass governmental firings.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will change the way practitioners use estate-planning strategies. They then discuss the stock market hitting all-time highs, September being the worst performing month, on average, going back nearly a century, and whether Focused Wealth Management is hedging client portfolios.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the latest jobless report, which came in higher than expected, and how this will affect the Federal Reserve’s decision on rate cuts at this week’s meeting. They then discuss the rally in gold, pushing the precious metal to all-time high,s and what this means for the economySubmit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how big of an interest rate cut the market expects from the Federal Reserve at its next meeting. They then discuss what to do about your fixed income portfolio before the Fed cuts rates.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Friday’s ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that President Trump overstepped his presidential authority when he imposed levies on virtually every country in the world and what happens now in the market and economy. They then talk about Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook who sued to challenge her removal by President Trump, whether she’ll be able to vote on interest rates at the September meeting, and how will this affect the independence of the Fed.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Friday’s rally in the stock market which saw the Dow Jones Industrial average soar 1.9% and the S&P 500 surge 1.5%. They then discuss the falling dollar and how this can help investor portfolios.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how 91% of fund managers think U.S. stocks are too expensive, the highest number since 2001. They then discuss defensive and bearish signals in the market and what the firm is doing to hedge investors’ portfolios.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how Wall Street strategists think the U.S. economy is moving toward stagflation while the consumer price index rose less than expected last month despite the tariffs. They then discuss why the market is ignoring the tariff news and continuing to rise.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about last week’s jobs report, the big downward revision for the two previous months, and what this means for the economy. They then discuss President Trump firing the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the bad jobs report and what this means going forward. Can the market still trust these numbers?Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about why home sales are falling during what is normally one of the housing market’s busiest times of the year, people being unable to afford new homes, and what this means for the economy. They then discuss the current meme stock mania and whether this will hurt the broader stock market.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the new executive order that allows employees to invest in private assets through their 401(k) retirement plans and whether investors should incorporate private assets into their retirement portfolios. They then explain how the tariffs have caused the second monthly decline in shipping containers bringing imports to the U.S., which could lead to one of the sharpest year-on-year reversals on record and what this means for the economy.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry explain how the new 50% tariff on copper and the ensuing price increase will hurt the economy. They then talk about the latest consumer price index reading jumping 0.3% in June for a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7% and whether this is the first sign of the tariffs working their way through the economy.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry explain how the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and the renewal of the tax cuts could spark a summer rally. They then talk about how the markets will react now that the president has instituted tariffs on Japan, South Korea and other countries, and moved the deadline for tariff reprieve to August 1.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry explain what the new U.S.-China trade deal means for the financial markets. They then talk about how the markets will react if President Trump removes Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve Bank.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry explain why the stock market rose and oil prices fell the first trading day after the U.S. bombed Iran. They then talk about how President Trump’s immigration policies, the growing domestic protests, and the attack on Iran, could cause a $12 billion drop in the U.S. tourism industry and how this will affect the economy.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Israel’s attack on Iran and what will happen in the oil and global markets if the Iranian regime falls and what happens if it stays in power. They then talk about whether it’s worth paying attention to consumer sentiment readings after the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment jumped 16% from last month, beating the Dow Jones estimate, and consumers now expect that inflation will fall.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry explain how an ADP Research report that said hiring decelerated to the slowest pace in two years — pointing to a weakened demand for workers — can exist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that non-farm payrolls rose for May, beating the estimate. They then talk about President Trump doubling the tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% and how will this affect the economy.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the negative factors affecting the Treasury bond market, such as the 30-year bond yield hitting 5%, a new survey saying investors expect the bond market to worsen, short positions climbing, and a new tax bill, which if passed will raise the country’s deficit. They then talk about the Court of International Trade blocking most of Trump’s tariffs, the federal appeals court that paused the suspension, and what happens next.Submit your questions to [email protected] always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.