Blue's Views

Has inflation finally yielded the foreground to growth concerns?

If you haven't alread, throw out the old playbook. It no longer applies.

As long as the dip buyers keep trying to price in a "pivot", the Fed can keep hiking.

We are likely on the verge of the scariest part of this bear market, but the G20 meeting in November could mark the end of the bear.

Get ready for more wild chop these next few weeks.

The false "pivot" narrative has been obliterated, but hubris remains sky high.

The "inflation/rates shock" is over; now it's time for the "growth/earnings shock".

What a run the S&P has had off 3,650! In our view, however, the rally is likely over and the bear market which began in January is likely to re-assert itself.

With thin markets getting thinner in summer liquidity how high can this rally go?

There are some similarities between the price action we saw in the summer of 2008 and now.

When you're bearish you only need about a 20% win rate to make money. Be patient!

It's summertime! Pull up a chair and take a breather.

Thus was Dennis Hopper's advice to the Hickory players in the closing moments of "Hoosiers". That lesson may be applicable in coming weeks.

Ready for the slowest and least liquid 10 weeks of the year?

VIX Shenanigans on Friday and quarter-end rebalance front-running may force the bears to be patient heading into July.

This market loves the sound of Jerome Powell's voice. Are the bears vulnerable heading into Wednesday's FOMC decision?

Today's CPI data changed the game both short- and medium-term.

We might be in for a slow, boring, theta-bleed kind of summer.

There's been a lot of deleveraging thus far this year. Positioning is light. How much bad news is priced in? Our take:  commodity prices will light the way.

The first wave of this bear market is over. It would be quite odd if a second wave didn't follow.

Bear market rallies tend to go higher than anyone expects; consolidation periods tend to last longer than anyone anticipates as well.

Don't forget the "E" in P/E!

This bounce may not be what the bulls are hoping for. I give reasons. I also review our strategic approach to "catching falling knives".

The last 14 years has represented a kind of "monetary Twilight Zone".

We're on the cusp of a REAL bear market, but shorts need to be wary of political realities and their natural disadvantages.

Bonds can't catch a bid, stocks look sick...will the FOMC meeting once again serve as a positive catalyst?

Far too many traders/investors are stuck in a 2009-2021 mentality. The rules have changed. Inflation is anchored. The Fed no longer has the market's back. 

Faith can carry a stock a long way, but in this tape it's all about empirical evidence.

The sneer-at-the-Fed #BTFD'ers have become the exit liquidity.

The Fed has lost control of market psychology; here's what they must do to regain it.

AAPL guidance holds the key to the S&P 500's next leg.

"This time is different" and other punchlines that are no longer punchlines.

Is the Fed getting ready to drop the hammer on the #BTFD Bros?

Is the move in bond yields just getting started?

Fundamentals:  do they matter?

Catching up...

Happy Hump Day!

Some Monday sauce for ya...

The Street's getting all hawked up and the market thinks it's hilarious.

AAPL, TSLA, and other silliness.

Whipsaw, anyone?

A day that may live in infamy.

Here's a little Monday rant for ya!

Thoughts and more thoughts!

I'm slammed with admin/compliance work but here are a few thoughts!

Supply shocks vs. demand shocks and other observations.

War...what is it good for?

Markets to the Fed:  "It's a trap!"

Dividends, hedgie leverage, and other accouterments.

Is this Russia, Danny?