Fixed Interests

Sabin Saveluc and Redmond Ramsdale explore the resilience of GCC banks amid the US-Iran conflict and ceasefire, discussing sector outlook, rating actions, asset quality, funding, liquidity, and sovereign support packages shaping the Middle East banking sector.

Fitch's Cynthia Chan & Christian Scarafia reveal why bank forecasts refuse to crack, from higher-for-longer rates to leaner operations. And the surprise standouts? Italy and Switzerland are pulling ahead. Listen now.

In the second part of their conversation, host Aymeric Poizot and Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton turn to the market fallout from the latest FOMC meeting and what the Fed's reset means over the longer term.They unpack the bear-flattening of the Treasury curve, the role of falling oil prices and stretched equity valuations, and how a smaller Fed balance sheet, rising supply, and a higher term premium could keep yields elevated. The discussion closes with the credit implications of a "higher for longer” environment from leveraged borrowers and government debt to the pressures facing the housing market.

Aymeric Poizot, Global Head of Investor Development at Fitch Ratings, is joined by Chief Economist Brian Coulton to examine what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed Chair means for monetary policy and markets.They explore Warsh's more hawkish tone, his focus on Fed communications and balance sheet reduction, and his push to restore credibility on inflation. The conversation also breaks down the latest rate decision and what falling oil prices and persistent inflation could mean for the odds of a hike later this year and the impact on Treasury yields and credit markets.

Ed Parker and Charles Seville outline Fitch’s updated Global Economic Outlook, covering how the impact of the US‑Iran war and resulting oil shock are driving growth and inflation forecast revisions, along with the impact of ongoing AI investment.

The ongoing US-Iran conflict has created a complex and mixed picture for Canada, a major oil exporter navigating both the benefits and costs of elevated energy prices. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Joshua Grundleger and Mark Sadeghian discuss Fitch's updated oil price forecasts and what the shock means for Canada's sovereign credit profile, energy sector, and provincial finances. The conversation examines diverging outcomes across the country, from Alberta's fiscal windfall to the headwinds facing Ontario and Quebec, and considers whether the Carney government's infrastructure and regulatory reforms could meaningfully shift Canada's long-term energy growth trajectory.

Hungary’s April elections delivered a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party, reshaping the country’s political landscape and outlook for policy reform. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Erich Arispe Morales, Head of Eastern Europe Sovereigns, speaks with Malgorzata Krzywicka, Hungary’s primary analyst, about the election outcome and its implications for the country’s sovereign credit profile. The discussion places Hungary within the context of broader Central and Eastern Europe election cycles, examining how political change has influenced fiscal policy, EU relations, growth prospects, and rating trajectories across the region. Related resources:Caucasus Sovereigns Face Policy Challenges due to Effects of Iran WarHungary’s New Government Faces Macroeconomic, Fiscal Challenges 

AI‑driven investment in data centers, compute capacity, and supporting infrastructure continues apace, raising important questions about future monetization and credit sustainability. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary and Research, is joined by Alen Lin, Senior Director in Corporate Ratings, and Alex Bumazhny, Group Credit Officer, to examine recent developments around AI’s credit implications. The episode looks at whether current data center and compute capex is supported by future revenue potential, how value and cash flows may evolve across the AI value chain, and where overinvestment and disruption risks may emergeRelated resources: AI-Related Risks Rising for Software, Media, and Services CorporatesAI Revenue Potential Could Support Current Investment ScaleUS Public Power Planning Key to Absorbing Data Center Load Growth 

Richard Hunter and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how the Middle East crisis is affecting sovereign ratings and the macro-outlook. Impacts are contained so far, and much geopolitical risk is already built into ratings and headroom.Related Resources:Fitch Insights: Credit Implications of the Iran WarWorld Growth to Continue at Steady Pace if Oil Price Shock Short-LivedEgyptian Banks Are Well Positioned to Withstand Iran Conflict EffectsHigh Oil Prices Support PDP ABS Collateral Value; Hedges Limit Upside

From unsupported EV software to AI‑driven changes in office use and logistics, tech is reshaping collateral performance. Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Ratings Credit Commentary and Research, and Suzanne Albers, Senior Director in Structured Finance, look at pressure points such as outdated EV systems, shifts in office demand linked to AI adoption, and the widening gap between legacy and modern logistics sites. Taken together, these trends are influencing risk across auto ABS, CMBS, and RMBS and accelerating how these sectors respond to the faster pace of technological change.Related Resources:Accelerating Technology May Increase Obsolescence Risk Within ABS, MBSStable Arrears Protect European Auto ABS Against Near-Term RiskU.S. CLO Note Ratings Resilient to Severe Software Sector Stress

Thomas Rookmaaker and Harry Hu evaluate recent youth‑led protests in several Asian countries, driven by concerns over governance, living costs and unemployment, and their implications for sovereign credit profiles and political transitions.Risk of Political Flare-Ups to Linger in 2026 for Some APAC SovereignsAsia ‘BBB’ Sovereigns Show Strong Growth; Fiscal Risks DivergeDurable Coalition Key to Thailand's Fiscal Outlook After Elections

Justin Patrie and Sarah Repucci unpack Fitch’s Global Credit Outlook, highlighting resilient credit conditions, pressures in China and Canada, and key risks, including strain on lower‑income U.S. consumers, tariff volatility and geopolitical shocks.Global Credit Resilience to Face Major Tests in 2026Global Private Credit’s Burgeoning Scale, Complexity to Continue in 2026Geopolitical Tensions Raise Emerging Market Credit Risks in 2026Benign U.S. Credit Backdrop Faces AI, Consumer and Trade RisksGeopolitical Tensions Cloud Developed Europe’s Growth, Investment

Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger discuss the US ouster of Nicolas Maduro, the revived Monroe Doctrine, and key risks for Latin America, including oil investment, debt restructuring, regional market reactions, and impacts on migration and tourism.

Brian Coulton and Ed Parker discuss Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook, reviewing where the world economy stands at the close of 2025 and key trends for 2026, from AI-driven investment and resilient U.S. equities to China’s sharp investment slowdown.

Lyuba Petrova, Lyle Margolis and Justin Patrie examine bubble risks as equities surge, credit spreads tighten, private credit faces hidden vulnerabilities and AI investment accelerates, though valuations suggest buyers aren’t overpaying.

Shelly Shetty and Todd Martinez analyze Argentina’s mid-term elections, what Milei’s stronger legislative backing means for reforms, and the lingering risks around reserves and external liquidity.

James Longsdon, Head of Global Sovereigns and Supranationals, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereign Ratings, discuss Western Europe’s fiscal divergence, recent upgrades and downgrades, and Fitch’s deficit outlook.

Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary & Research, discuss emerging challenges for the AI-fueled US data center boom, covering investment, rising costs, impact on utilities and more.

Paul Gamble, Head of Middle East and Africa (MEA) Sovereigns, and Cedric Berry, Director, MEA Sovereigns, discuss GCC efforts to diversify their economies beyond oil, and the varied pace of progress across the region.

Justin Patrie and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how emerging market credits are faring this year amid slower global growth, geopolitical risks, and shifting U.S. policy - highlighting ratings resilience and modest positive momentum.

Justin Patrie and David Prowse discuss key themes from Fitch’s Global Credit Risk Outlook, including slower growth, tariff uncertainty, and weaker credit conditions—as well as the overall ratings resilience amid these challenges.

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, lead analyst for Japan, discuss Japan’s fiscal outlook, covering the impact of rising bond yields, fiscal populism and long-term spending pressures.

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch’s mid-year Global Economic Outlook, focusing on global growth forecast updates since April and how tariffs are driving key changes to projections.

The credit outlook for global corporates has worsened in 2025, with 14 sectors and sub-sectors deteriorating at mid-year vs. 5 at end-2024. Justin Patrie and Carla Taylor, Head of Research for the Americas, discuss the drivers and implications.

Paul Gamble, Senior Director of Sovereign Ratings, and Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, discuss the credit implications and common themes of the 2025/2026 electoral cycle in Central and Eastern Europe.

Fitch's 2Q25 Risk Headquarters report highlights a worsened risk outlook amid US tariff volatility. David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss key points from the report, centered around how Trump-era policies continue to elevate investor concerns.

From global macroeconomic trends to sovereign credit developments to regulatory and political changes, Fitch’s Fixed Interests podcast delivers the analyst insights and updates you need to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market. Available wherever you get your podcasts.

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss Mexico’s recent rating affirmation, and how the sovereign is navigating global trade tensions and domestic fiscal challenges.

Explore the impact of US tariffs on European sovereigns with Jan Friederich, Head of EMEA Sovereigns, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereigns, as they discuss strategic responses and fiscal implications for Europe.

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Jeremy Zook, lead analyst for China, discuss China’s recent downgrade, covering key drivers including the sovereign's weakening public finances and rapidly rising public debt ratios.

Olu Sonola, Chief US Economist, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary and Research, delve into Fitch's latest US Cross-Sector Housing Monitor, discussing the US housing outlook and risks from tariffs, labor costs and lower sentiment.

David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss the key points in Fitch's 1Q25 Risk Headquarters report, covering how the credit risk environment has evolved since the start of the year in response to inflation, new Trump administration policies, and more.

Join Thomas Rookmaaker and Jeremy Zook from the APAC Sovereigns team as they explore India's 2025 budget, its path for debt reduction, economic outlook, and implications for the sovereign rating amid global uncertainties.

Join Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Meghan Neenan, Head of North America NBFI, as they review 2024's private credit trends, including the growth of asset-based finance, and discuss outlooks on the sector for 2025.

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns and Richard Francis, Senior Director, Sovereigns, look into the impact new Trump administration policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, may have on US public finances and its sovereign rating.

David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss the key points in Fitch's 2025 Global Credit Outlook report, including positive drivers for the market such as falling interest rates, and negative drivers including escalating geopolitical risks.

Tariff uncertainty in the US, deflation pressures in China, and political instability in France and Germany are driving forecast changes for 2025. Join Brian Coulton and Ed Parker as they cover these and other developments detailed in Fitch's new Global Economic Outlook report.

Richard Francis, David Prowse, and Justin Patrie discuss the implications of the recent US election, including potential impacts on the US budget, sovereign credit profile, and the macroeconomic effects of new tariffs on global markets.

Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe (EE) Sovereigns, and Malgorzata Krzywicka, Associate Director EE Sovereigns, discuss Central and Eastern Europe’s current state of public finances and the region’s fiscal consolidation prospects and challenges.

Christopher Wolfe, Managing Director for North America Banks, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, look back at US banks’ performance and rating trends in 2024 and discuss expectations for 2025, including potential post-election policy changes.

Explore the latest developments in Common Framework debt restructurings for Ethiopia, Zambia, and Ghana and the impacts of new IMF policies with Paul Gamble, Head of MEA Sovereign ratings, and Thomas Garreau, Associate Director, MEA Sovereigns.

Duncan Innes-Ker, Senior Director, Fitch Wire, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, explore challenges and opportunities for emerging market economies, including recent rate cuts, weaker demand in China, and post-election policy changes in the US.

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Jeremy Zook, Lead Analyst for India, discuss India’s sovereign rating, and what to expect from the country’s economic policy following the election of Narendra Modi to his third term as prime minister.

Richard Francis, Richard Hunter and Justin Patrie look into the potential effects the upcoming US election could have on credit, touching on the US’ sovereign rating, the different fiscal policy plans offered by the candidates, and more.

Head of EMEA Sovereigns Jan Friederich and Head of Western European Sovereigns Federico Barriga Salazar discuss fiscal policies in the EU, including the impact of the new fiscal rules and implications for the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument.

David Prowse, Senior Director, Fitch Wire, and Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, look into our 3Q24 Risk Headquarters report, covering the ongoing impact of high interest rates, escalating geopolitical risks, real estate market challenges and more.

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, parse Fitch’s latest Global Economic Outlook report, covering focus points including the gradually slowing US economy, global monetary policy developments and more.

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Lead Mexico Analyst, look at Mexico’s recent elections, including challenges and opportunities for the new administration, and rating drivers moving forward.

With elections in the U.S. approaching, Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Alex Muscatelli, Director, Economics, look into the potential impact a renewed trade war sparked by US-led tariff hikes could have on the global economy

Euan Gatfield, Head of EMEA CMBS, joins Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Wire, to explore the current CRE environment, delving into rate cycle impacts and other factors such as e-commerce, post-Covid office space utilization and the energy transition