Fixed Interests

Fitch's Terry Gallagher, Josh Clark, and John Kempf examine the gaming, leisure, lodging, and restaurant sector. They discuss sector bankruptcies, maturity, alternative financing, favorable demographics, and strong first-lien creditor recoveries.

Fitch's Sovereign team explores Argentina's turning point. Following its upgrade to 'B-', analysts Shelly Shetty and Chris Dychala discuss the Milei administration's fiscal and reform gains, vulnerabilities, and what to watch ahead of 2027 elections.

Christian Scarafia and Robert Mazzuoli unpack the European Commission's July push to boost EU banking competitiveness, exploring cross-border consolidation, capital fungibility, Basel III lending reforms, deposit protection changes, and key omissions.

Fitch's Olu Sonola joins Rachel Willis Gutierrez to unpack the US Consumer Health Pulse. Despite slowing spending, energy-driven inflation, and flat real income, consumers remain resilient buoyed by strong balance sheets and a solid labor market.

The US and Japan intervened to support the yen for the first time in nearly 30 years, but did it fix anything? Jessica Hinds joins Fitch's Fixed Interests to explain why the yen's weakness is now a story about fiscal credibility, real yields and BOJ

Fitch experts unpack Q2's shift as global upgrades outpaced downgrades for the first time since 2024. Explore what's driving credit resilience, regional trends, and the 2026 outlook for corporates across sectors.

What does AI disruption means for service businesses. Rob Galtman and Jonathan Reid join Deborah Murnin on where risk is most immediate, why exposure is so uneven, and which structural protections matter most across 200 corporates.

Let's unpack Fitch's July US and European distressed and default monitors. Brendan Hoelmer and Leonie Dackham join Terry Gallagher on why falling default rates mask rising forward-looking stress and a building default pipeline.

How will USMCA's annual review cycles impact Mexico and Canada. Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger join Shelly Shetty to explore key pressure points, sticking points on autos, and what a good deal looks like. Part two of two.

What the USMCA's move to annual review cycles means for North America. Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger join Shelly Shetty to unpack what changed on July 1st, Fitch's baseline scenario, and the risks ahead. Part one of two.

Fitch analysts examine how a developing El Niño could impact corporate credit risk across Asia Pacific. We explore Vietnam's hydropower vulnerability, resilience in India and China, and why palm oil producers may face a mixed credit outlook.

Why did post-pandemic inflation last so long? Fitch's Chief Economist Brian Coulton reveals how corporate margins, not wages, fueled persistence, and assesses the risk of a repeat after the 2026 oil shock, with key implications for the Fed and ECB.

Yields under pressure. Leverage on the rise. Fitch dives into the growing use of off-balance-sheet financing among Business Development Companies (BDCs) and what it signals for credit risk ahead.

How could El Niño affect Latin America's power sector? Fitch Ratings analysts Saverio Minervini, Marcela Araujo and Juan David Medellin discuss rising power prices, hydropower pressures and credit risks across Brazil, Colombia and Panama.  

Aymeric Poizot and Monsur Hussain discuss how innovation is reshaping credit markets. Considering fund finance, securitisation and corporate back leverage, they explore these new structures and the implications for credit risk assessment.

Rachel Willis Gutierrez and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how El Niño acts as a risk amplifier for weaker sovereigns, intensifying pressures on growth, inflation, public finances, and trade. Listen now to this episode.

Sabin Saveluc and Redmond Ramsdale explore the resilience of GCC banks amid the US-Iran conflict and ceasefire, discussing sector outlook, rating actions, asset quality, funding, liquidity, and sovereign support packages shaping the Middle East banking sector.

Fitch's Cynthia Chan & Christian Scarafia reveal why bank forecasts refuse to crack, from higher-for-longer rates to leaner operations. And the surprise standouts? Italy and Switzerland are pulling ahead. Listen now.

In the second part of their conversation, host Aymeric Poizot and Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton turn to the market fallout from the latest FOMC meeting and what the Fed's reset means over the longer term.They unpack the bear-flattening of the Treasury curve, the role of falling oil prices and stretched equity valuations, and how a smaller Fed balance sheet, rising supply, and a higher term premium could keep yields elevated. The discussion closes with the credit implications of a "higher for longer” environment from leveraged borrowers and government debt to the pressures facing the housing market.

Aymeric Poizot, Global Head of Investor Development at Fitch Ratings, is joined by Chief Economist Brian Coulton to examine what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed Chair means for monetary policy and markets.They explore Warsh's more hawkish tone, his focus on Fed communications and balance sheet reduction, and his push to restore credibility on inflation. The conversation also breaks down the latest rate decision and what falling oil prices and persistent inflation could mean for the odds of a hike later this year and the impact on Treasury yields and credit markets.

Ed Parker and Charles Seville outline Fitch’s updated Global Economic Outlook, covering how the impact of the US‑Iran war and resulting oil shock are driving growth and inflation forecast revisions, along with the impact of ongoing AI investment.

The ongoing US-Iran conflict has created a complex and mixed picture for Canada, a major oil exporter navigating both the benefits and costs of elevated energy prices. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Joshua Grundleger and Mark Sadeghian discuss Fitch's updated oil price forecasts and what the shock means for Canada's sovereign credit profile, energy sector, and provincial finances. The conversation examines diverging outcomes across the country, from Alberta's fiscal windfall to the headwinds facing Ontario and Quebec, and considers whether the Carney government's infrastructure and regulatory reforms could meaningfully shift Canada's long-term energy growth trajectory.

Hungary’s April elections delivered a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party, reshaping the country’s political landscape and outlook for policy reform. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Erich Arispe Morales, Head of Eastern Europe Sovereigns, speaks with Malgorzata Krzywicka, Hungary’s primary analyst, about the election outcome and its implications for the country’s sovereign credit profile. The discussion places Hungary within the context of broader Central and Eastern Europe election cycles, examining how political change has influenced fiscal policy, EU relations, growth prospects, and rating trajectories across the region. Related resources:Caucasus Sovereigns Face Policy Challenges due to Effects of Iran WarHungary’s New Government Faces Macroeconomic, Fiscal Challenges 

AI‑driven investment in data centers, compute capacity, and supporting infrastructure continues apace, raising important questions about future monetization and credit sustainability. In this episode of Fixed Interests, Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary and Research, is joined by Alen Lin, Senior Director in Corporate Ratings, and Alex Bumazhny, Group Credit Officer, to examine recent developments around AI’s credit implications. The episode looks at whether current data center and compute capex is supported by future revenue potential, how value and cash flows may evolve across the AI value chain, and where overinvestment and disruption risks may emergeRelated resources: AI-Related Risks Rising for Software, Media, and Services CorporatesAI Revenue Potential Could Support Current Investment ScaleUS Public Power Planning Key to Absorbing Data Center Load Growth 

Richard Hunter and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how the Middle East crisis is affecting sovereign ratings and the macro-outlook. Impacts are contained so far, and much geopolitical risk is already built into ratings and headroom.Related Resources:Fitch Insights: Credit Implications of the Iran WarWorld Growth to Continue at Steady Pace if Oil Price Shock Short-LivedEgyptian Banks Are Well Positioned to Withstand Iran Conflict EffectsHigh Oil Prices Support PDP ABS Collateral Value; Hedges Limit Upside

From unsupported EV software to AI‑driven changes in office use and logistics, tech is reshaping collateral performance. Justin Patrie, Head of Fitch Ratings Credit Commentary and Research, and Suzanne Albers, Senior Director in Structured Finance, look at pressure points such as outdated EV systems, shifts in office demand linked to AI adoption, and the widening gap between legacy and modern logistics sites. Taken together, these trends are influencing risk across auto ABS, CMBS, and RMBS and accelerating how these sectors respond to the faster pace of technological change.Related Resources:Accelerating Technology May Increase Obsolescence Risk Within ABS, MBSStable Arrears Protect European Auto ABS Against Near-Term RiskU.S. CLO Note Ratings Resilient to Severe Software Sector Stress

Thomas Rookmaaker and Harry Hu evaluate recent youth‑led protests in several Asian countries, driven by concerns over governance, living costs and unemployment, and their implications for sovereign credit profiles and political transitions.Risk of Political Flare-Ups to Linger in 2026 for Some APAC SovereignsAsia ‘BBB’ Sovereigns Show Strong Growth; Fiscal Risks DivergeDurable Coalition Key to Thailand's Fiscal Outlook After Elections

Justin Patrie and Sarah Repucci unpack Fitch’s Global Credit Outlook, highlighting resilient credit conditions, pressures in China and Canada, and key risks, including strain on lower‑income U.S. consumers, tariff volatility and geopolitical shocks.Global Credit Resilience to Face Major Tests in 2026Global Private Credit’s Burgeoning Scale, Complexity to Continue in 2026Geopolitical Tensions Raise Emerging Market Credit Risks in 2026Benign U.S. Credit Backdrop Faces AI, Consumer and Trade RisksGeopolitical Tensions Cloud Developed Europe’s Growth, Investment

Todd Martinez and Josh Grundleger discuss the US ouster of Nicolas Maduro, the revived Monroe Doctrine, and key risks for Latin America, including oil investment, debt restructuring, regional market reactions, and impacts on migration and tourism.

Brian Coulton and Ed Parker discuss Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook, reviewing where the world economy stands at the close of 2025 and key trends for 2026, from AI-driven investment and resilient U.S. equities to China’s sharp investment slowdown.

Lyuba Petrova, Lyle Margolis and Justin Patrie examine bubble risks as equities surge, credit spreads tighten, private credit faces hidden vulnerabilities and AI investment accelerates, though valuations suggest buyers aren’t overpaying.

Shelly Shetty and Todd Martinez analyze Argentina’s mid-term elections, what Milei’s stronger legislative backing means for reforms, and the lingering risks around reserves and external liquidity.

James Longsdon, Head of Global Sovereigns and Supranationals, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereign Ratings, discuss Western Europe’s fiscal divergence, recent upgrades and downgrades, and Fitch’s deficit outlook.

Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary & Research, discuss emerging challenges for the AI-fueled US data center boom, covering investment, rising costs, impact on utilities and more.

Paul Gamble, Head of Middle East and Africa (MEA) Sovereigns, and Cedric Berry, Director, MEA Sovereigns, discuss GCC efforts to diversify their economies beyond oil, and the varied pace of progress across the region.

Justin Patrie and Duncan Innes-Ker discuss how emerging market credits are faring this year amid slower global growth, geopolitical risks, and shifting U.S. policy - highlighting ratings resilience and modest positive momentum.

Justin Patrie and David Prowse discuss key themes from Fitch’s Global Credit Risk Outlook, including slower growth, tariff uncertainty, and weaker credit conditions—as well as the overall ratings resilience amid these challenges.

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Krisjanis Krustins, lead analyst for Japan, discuss Japan’s fiscal outlook, covering the impact of rising bond yields, fiscal populism and long-term spending pressures.

Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Sovereigns Managing Director, discuss Fitch’s mid-year Global Economic Outlook, focusing on global growth forecast updates since April and how tariffs are driving key changes to projections.

The credit outlook for global corporates has worsened in 2025, with 14 sectors and sub-sectors deteriorating at mid-year vs. 5 at end-2024. Justin Patrie and Carla Taylor, Head of Research for the Americas, discuss the drivers and implications.

Paul Gamble, Senior Director of Sovereign Ratings, and Erich Arispe, Head of Emerging Europe Sovereign Ratings, discuss the credit implications and common themes of the 2025/2026 electoral cycle in Central and Eastern Europe.

Fitch's 2Q25 Risk Headquarters report highlights a worsened risk outlook amid US tariff volatility. David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss key points from the report, centered around how Trump-era policies continue to elevate investor concerns.

From global macroeconomic trends to sovereign credit developments to regulatory and political changes, Fitch’s Fixed Interests podcast delivers the analyst insights and updates you need to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving market. Available wherever you get your podcasts.

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Americas Sovereigns and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss Mexico’s recent rating affirmation, and how the sovereign is navigating global trade tensions and domestic fiscal challenges.

Explore the impact of US tariffs on European sovereigns with Jan Friederich, Head of EMEA Sovereigns, and Federico Barriga Salazar, Head of Western European Sovereigns, as they discuss strategic responses and fiscal implications for Europe.

Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereign Ratings, and Jeremy Zook, lead analyst for China, discuss China’s recent downgrade, covering key drivers including the sovereign's weakening public finances and rapidly rising public debt ratios.

Olu Sonola, Chief US Economist, and Sarah Repucci, Senior Director, Credit Commentary and Research, delve into Fitch's latest US Cross-Sector Housing Monitor, discussing the US housing outlook and risks from tariffs, labor costs and lower sentiment.

David Prowse and Justin Patrie discuss the key points in Fitch's 1Q25 Risk Headquarters report, covering how the credit risk environment has evolved since the start of the year in response to inflation, new Trump administration policies, and more.

Join Thomas Rookmaaker and Jeremy Zook from the APAC Sovereigns team as they explore India's 2025 budget, its path for debt reduction, economic outlook, and implications for the sovereign rating amid global uncertainties.

Join Justin Patrie, Head of Credit Commentary & Research, and Meghan Neenan, Head of North America NBFI, as they review 2024's private credit trends, including the growth of asset-based finance, and discuss outlooks on the sector for 2025.