Inside Prediction Markets

A U.S. soldier was just prosecuted by the DOJ for betting $400,000 on a prediction market using classified military intelligence about the Maduro situation — and Chris and Henry break down why this is actually a landmark moment for the space. It wasn't done on a CFTC-regulated platform, but it still matters: the system is starting to work, Trump is calling the world a casino, and the CFTC commissioner is putting more regulation on the table.Then Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. He's one of the most respected minds in sports betting Twitter and brings a rare perspective — someone who has sat on both sides of the market. The conversation covers how he thinks about information sharing, what it was like switching from bookmaker to bettor and how sharps like him are actually approaching prediction markets right now.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – The Soldier Who Bet $400K on Maduro2:30 – Trump Calls the World a Casino3:00 – A Major Platform Lobbies the CFTC5:05 – Introducing Shipper (@Ship_the_Justice)6:00 – From New Zealand Bookmaker to Full-Time Sharp Bettor14:00 – Getting Picked Off on Injury News20:00 – How Sharps Are Approaching Prediction Markets28:00 – The Viral Half Million Contract Order38:00 – How Much of His PNL Is on PMs48:27 – The Most Expensive Lesson Shipper Has Learned#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Chris and Henry pull back the curtain on what it actually takes to get hired at a prediction market company. They start with their own stories — how Chris reached out cold and created his own role, how Henry cold-emailed a cover letter and got hired by pitching a vision the company didn't even know it needed yet — and why both paths have one thing in common: initiative.From there it's a full insider breakdown: the org chart of a prediction market company, what each department actually looks for, the honest truth about originators (most people who think they are one, aren't), what makes a great trader vs. a great engineer in this space, and why dev relations might be the most underrated open door in the entire industry right now.The second half is a live mock interview — Henry puts Chris in the hot seat with real questions he uses to evaluate trading candidates, walking through position sizing, adverse selection, tick width, and how to think about the relationship between a market maker and an exchange. If you're trying to break into prediction markets, this is the episode.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – How Chris Got His Job at Novig3:40 – How Henry Got His Job at Novig6:30 – The #1 Piece of Advice for Breaking In8:50 – The Org Chart Explained14:00 – What Engineers Need to Know22:35 – The Hard Truth About Originators26:50 – What Is a Trader, Actually?28:35 – The Mock Interview38:29 – Position Sizing and Adverse Selection46:42 – Novig Is Hiring#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Ohio just introduced a bill that would effectively kill online sports betting in the state. Chris and Henry break down why it's unlikely to pass but why it matters, plus a tease of what looks like perpetual contracts coming to a major prediction market platform, and a look at Chris's Substack deep dive into his journey as a professional gambler.Then Harry Crane joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Harry is a statistics professor at Rutgers, a member of the CFTC Innovation Committee, and one of the sharper minds at the intersection of academic probability theory and real-world prediction markets. The conversation gets into his path from poker to sports betting to prediction market research, what it's like being a bettor with a seat at the regulatory table, and a genuinely fascinating deep dive into Kelly Criterion — when to use it, when it breaks down, the case for half Kelly vs. full Kelly, and what a $3 million drawdown actually teaches you about your own edge.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformChapters:0:00 – Ohio's Bill to Kill Sports Betting1:12 – Perps Coming to Kalshi?3:12 – Chris's Substack on his Journey4:51 – Introducing Harry Crane: CFTC Committee Member6:45 – Harry's Scoop on Election Markets and 53814:00 – Having a Seat at the CFTC Table19:00 – Are Sharp Bettors Losing Faith in Prediction Markets?26:00 – The Full Kelly vs. Half Kelly Debate35:00 – What a $3M Drawdown Teaches You43:00 – Card Counting, Kelly, and the Conditional Fill ProblemThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Novig is at The Masters — LIV golfers including Jon Rahm and Cam Smith are wearing the Novig patch, and the Blue Blazer Jackpot is live on the app. Enter once per day by trading on the tournament winner, and if your pick wins you share a $500K Novig Cash prize pool. One winner also takes home the first-ever Novig Blue Blazer delivered in person by a LIV player. Visit augusta.novig.com to track entries and find your angle.Then Chris and Henry break down the week's big three: a court ruling in favor of prediction markets over New Jersey's attempt to block sports contracts, the one platform that just introduced fees after years of zero-cost trading, and what that actually means for the space. Then Golden Pants himself — John Shilling of Risk Takers — joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat to break down how to actually bet The Masters, from course characteristics and field analysis to how prediction markets have completely changed the golf betting lifecycle.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets [5:17 PM]OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Novig's $500K Blue Blazer Jackpot1:42 – Courts Rule in Favor of Prediction Markets Over New Jersey3:20 – A Major Platform Added Fees5:08 – Optic Odds: The Tech Stack Behind the Space7:29 – Introducing Golden Pants: John Schilling in the Hot Seat8:37 – What Makes Augusta Unlike Any Other Course22:43 – Golf Betting's Evolution in the Prediction Markets Era27:54 – Most Live Golf Volume Is Fake?31:32 – How Golden Pants Operates Across Every Sport35:25 – How His Trading Software Actually Works44:07 – What Should Change About Tick Size53:32 – Golden Pants' Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

The NFL just asked prediction markets to stop listing easily manipulated outcomes — draft picks, announcer mentions, attendance markets — and Chris and Henry think it's actually a good thing. Then: DraftKings is quietly building an AI casino product nobody asked for, and Kalshi just filed to offer margin trading. All three stories before they sit down with Jake (@jbets212121), a former accountant who walked away from a stable career less than a year ago to go full time in prediction markets.Jake gets into how he built his operation from scratch — starting with paper hat work and live betting, pivoting to RFQs, and building out a fully functional quoting system in ten days with his developer partner. The conversation covers how he thinks about adverse selection, the top-down vs. origination debate, white labeling as a business model, maker vs. taker fee structures, and what it actually cost him to learn some of his biggest lessons — including a brutal opening day of baseball where flipped spreads and totals nearly wiped out everything he'd built.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – NFL Sets Boundaries on Prediction Markets2:48 – DraftKings Replay: The Product No One Asked For5:30 – Kalshi Applies for Margin Trading: What It Actually Means6:41 – Introducing Jake (@jbets212121)7:10 – How To Go From Accountant to Professional Gambler13:38 – Building a Quoting System in 10 Days18:20 – Top Down vs. Origination: The Crossroads Decision21:03 – Should Exchanges Stay Maker Friendly?28:48 – What If Straight Markets Traded via RFQ?33:47 – The Most Expensive Mistake He's Ever Made#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

A state just filed criminal charges against a prediction market for the first time in U.S. history — and that's just where this week starts. Chris and Henry break down Arizona's lawsuit, what it means legally, and why sportsbooks may be quietly pulling the strings. Then: the Polymarket Situation Room's rocky launch, the Schiff-Curtis bill to ban sports markets, AOC piling on, and why a $50 billion industry isn't going anywhere on vibes alone.Then the guys sit down with Egzee — one of the largest individual market makers in Prediction Markets and the most talked-about intern in prediction markets history. He breaks down how he got started flipping cards in MLB The Show, spotted the same mechanics on election night, and built it into a serious operation — plus the creator ID debate, the originating vs. top-down argument, and what it really takes to survive as competition heats up.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting Chapters:0:00 – Arizona Sues a Prediction Market2:00 – The Polymarket Situation Room3:00 – The Bill That Could Kill Sports Betting on Prediction Markets9:05 - Egzee Joins the Show9:35 – How a Video Game Led to Making Generational Money11:50 – Egzee's BIG EDGE15:00 – Origination is Overrated18:25 – The Creator ID Debate23:30 – Are Sharp Takers Slowly Killing the Ecosystem?

Prediction markets are exploding — and Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky is right in the middle of it.In this episode of Inside Prediction Markets, we sit down with Jacob to break down how Novig went from a scrappy startup to a serious player in the space, why prediction markets are starting to compete with sportsbooks, and what the future of betting might actually look like.We also get into the moment Novig actually felt like it might work, why most betting markets are inefficient and where the real edge is, the betting strategy that got Jacob limited early on, how prediction markets could reshape sports betting entirely, and advice for founders looking to build in this space.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.0:00 How Jacob Fortinsky Started Novig3:43 Regulation, CFTC & Longevity9:38 When Novig Started Feeling “Real”14:48 The Future of Prediction Markets17:39 Infrastructure is King23:30 The Power of Ball Knowledge25:20 Being Limited with Jacob Fortinsky29:17 Politics Market Inefficiencies#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Prediction markets are suddenly being valued like Silicon Valley unicorns. But are those numbers real — or just hype?This week on Inside Prediction Markets, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes break down the rumors that major platforms could be chasing $20 BILLION valuations after recent funding rounds. Is the industry really on that trajectory… or are investors getting ahead of themselves?We’re also joined by Dustin Gouker, one of the most respected voices covering gambling and prediction markets. He shares why he believes prediction markets still need much stronger consumer protections.The group digs into the growing tension between federal market regulation and state sports-betting oversight, why high tax rates are distorting the market, and whether giants like DraftKings and FanDuel are poised to dominate if they enter the space.And perhaps the biggest question of all:Are prediction markets about to reshape the entire information economy — or are we still in the Wild West?📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.https://youtube.com/@InsidePredictionMarketsWhat to expect:📈 Market Deep Dives: Breaking down the biggest active markets in politics, tech, and culture.🎙️ Expert Guests: Conversations with top the sharpest market makers.🧠 Strategy Analysis: the unique mechanics that make prediction markets superior to polls and pundits.This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.00:00 Are Prediction Markets Worth $20B?01:30 RFQ Controversy Explained05:48 Why did Underdog buy Aristotle?07:08 What's Dustin Gouker's Problem with Prediction Markets?09:41 Are Prediction Markets Actually Safer?14:17 Are Prediction Markets Still the Wild West?21:15 Will Prediction Markets Be Taxed?26:15 Will DraftKings and FanDuel Prediction Markets Be Successful?

The debate around prediction markets just exploded. After more than $54 million was wagered on whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would fall from power, traders expected the market to resolve — instead, bettors were left furious when the platform voided the outcome.So do “death markets” actually exist? And where should the line be drawn between forecasting geopolitical events and profiting from them?On this episode of Inside Prediction Markets, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes break down the controversy shaking the industry — from the ethics of markets tied to political instability to the massive wagers placed on Iran’s leadership.Plus, we’re joined by Sports Predictions for an interview about how he’s built an edge in prediction markets, the strategies he uses to find value where others miss it, and what this latest controversy reveals about the future of the space.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.https://youtube.com/@InsidePredictionMarketsWhat to expect:📈 Market Deep Dives: Breaking down the biggest active markets in politics, tech, and culture.🎙️ Expert Guests: Conversations with top the sharpest market makers.🧠 Strategy Analysis: the unique mechanics that make prediction markets superior to polls and pundits.This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.0:17 - Iran Khomeini Market9:28 - DraftKings PM Margins13:00 - Underdog Layoffs & PM Shift14:50 - Sports Projections Joins the Show17:32 - Transition from Casual DFS to Serious Betting21:45 - Player Props & College Football Strategy26:31 - Getting Into Prediction Markets29:37 - Tick Size Debate37:05 - "More Rake Is Better" - Fee Discussion42:13 - Companies to Buy & Sell in PM Space50:43 - Five Year Prediction for PM Industry55:22 - Most Expensive Mistake

This week, the markets went into a frenzy. From extraterrestrial leaks to massive winter storms, the guys are breaking down who cashed in and who’s full of it.In This Episode:0:00 The Alien Explosion: President Obama dropped some cryptic ET info that sent markets soaring. Are Chris and Henry buying the hype, or is it all noise?2:00 SNOW SNOW SNOW: A massive snowstorm hit New York, and some savvy viewers turned the weather into a massive payday. We look at the winning trades.3:30 Chris Christie Sounds Off: Chris Christie is attacking prediction markets. Is he truly concerned, or just carrying water for the American Gaming Association?5:18 Betting on Yourself: "Boy Wonder" Liam Kane joins the show to give the inside scoop on why he walked away from his full-time gig to go independent.Read WSJ feature on Liam: https://www.wsj.com/business/media/super-bowl-prediction-betting-1302feda?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

The gloves are off! The federal government is demanding that states stand down on efforts to regulate and restrict prediction markets. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has a blunt message for state regulators: "I'll see you in court" if you step on the toes of his agency.But is this jurisdictional turf war actually good for the consumer? And what does it mean for the future of the industry? Two of the sharpest betters and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, dive into the implications on the debut episode of Inside Prediction Markets.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays What to expect:📈 Market Deep Dives: Breaking down the biggest active markets in politics, tech, and culture.🎙️ Expert Guests: Conversations with top the sharpest market makers.🧠 Strategy Analysis: the unique mechanics that make prediction markets superior to polls and pundits.This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.00:36 CFTC vs States: Who Regulates Prediction Markets?02:09 Why the CFTC stance is great for Novig and prediction markets04:20 Consumer Protection & Responsible Gambling: Real Talk05:26 DraftKings Earnings deep dive08:10 Can sportsbooks compete with Prediction Markets?09:39 Prediction Markets enter the Grocery Store game13:55 Prediction Market Trends17:58 The Edge Is Getting Harder: ARBs Dry Up and Sharps Adapt19:17 Vice Documentary Review22:08 Coming up next