Know Your Risk Podcast

June 18, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down another rally toward all-time highs, the continued collapse in oil prices, SpaceX's post-IPO volatility, AI-driven market leadership, and why the current market may be ignoring the very fundamentals it claims to care about. They discuss Trump's comments on oil supply, inventory draws, China's demand slowdown, Intel's surprising rally, and the growing disconnect between price action and economic reality.

June 17, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down Kevin Warsh's first day as Fed Chair, the sharp move in bond yields, and what a less predictable Federal Reserve could mean for investors. They discuss forward guidance, market volatility, wealth inequality, AI's long-term economic impact, oil markets, and why some of the biggest opportunities often emerge when markets are forced to stand on their own.

June 16, 2026 - Zach and Chase react to the newly announced Middle East deal, the collapse in oil prices, and why the market may be celebrating too quickly. They discuss the reopening of global energy flows, record inventory draws, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the SpaceX IPO, equity supply hitting the market, and why physical supply-and-demand dynamics may ultimately matter more than the headlines.

June 15, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the newly announced Middle East deal, what sanctions relief could mean for Iran, and why the market's reaction may not match the underlying oil math. They discuss inventory losses, the true cost of reopening the Strait, inflation risks, SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, record equity issuance, and why a growing wall of stock supply could become a major headwind for markets.

June 12, 2026 - Zach and Chase tackle one of the most difficult questions in economics: how do you address growing debt, deficits, and wealth concentration without breaking the incentives that drive growth and innovation? They discuss wealth taxes, unrealized gains, capital formation, government spending, political dysfunction, and why both parties may be structurally incapable of solving America's long-term fiscal challenges. They also explore what a real solution might require—and why the stakes are far bigger than politics.

June 11, 2026 - Chase discusses the latest “imminent” peace deal headlines, why oil markets may still need proof before accepting the Strait is truly reopening, and how much damage may already be baked into global inventories. He also breaks down PPI, Fed rate-hike pressure, long-end Treasury weakness, equity issuance from major tech names, and why even a real deal may not quickly erase the supply problem facing oil markets.

June 10, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why this market feels increasingly disconnected from fundamentals, and why investors are being forced to react to headlines instead of underlying reality. They break down the latest inflation data, the ongoing Middle East conflict, oil inventories, market psychology, SpaceX valuations, and why so much of today's price action seems to hinge on social media narratives and geopolitical speculation rather than hard data. They also discuss what the next few weeks could reveal about both diplomacy and energy markets.

June 9, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss one of the strangest market environments they've ever seen, with major indexes swinging wildly despite limited news flow. They break down the latest developments in oil, global inventories, AI spending, SpaceX-related speculation, Nvidia demand, market liquidity, and why the next wave of IPO enthusiasm could tell investors more about market psychology than fundamentals. They also discuss inflation risks, inventory shortages, and why price action may be sending mixed signals across multiple asset classes.

June 8, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why investors may be misreading the current environment as risk appetite returns across markets. They break down the growing excitement surrounding a potential SpaceX IPO, why speculative behavior appears to be resurfacing, and what it says about investor psychology. The conversation also covers Bitcoin, AI spending, inflation, energy markets, demographic shifts, Washington state tax policy, and why the Strait of Hormuz situation may still be the most important unresolved story in global markets.

June 5, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss a sharp market reversal, why some of the highest-flying speculative trades are suddenly under pressure, and what investors can learn when sentiment changes direction. They break down the selloff in tech, the risks embedded in AI-related valuations, the SpaceX IPO frenzy, Bitcoin-linked speculation, retirement-flow dynamics, and why market leadership may be starting to rotate. They also explore the difference between great businesses and great investments, and why price still matters no matter how compelling the story sounds.

June 4, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss a potential hidden dynamic behind the oil market's resilience, why China's buying strike may be more important than most investors realize, and whether a broader geopolitical detente could be influencing events behind the scenes. They also examine Taiwan, shifting U.S.-China relations, global energy flows, and why the physical realities of the oil market continue to clash with prevailing narratives. Along the way, they explore how incentives, diplomacy, and market psychology can sometimes matter as much as the headlines themselves.

June 3, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the growing incentives problem across financial media, why credibility is becoming increasingly valuable in a world driven by algorithms, and how investors can separate signal from engagement farming. They also break down the latest action in oil, AI speculation, SpaceX's eye-popping valuation, passive flows, retirement demographics, equity supply dynamics, and why several of the conditions historically associated with market bubbles are now appearing simultaneously. Finally, they revisit the Strait situation, China's role in global oil markets, and why the underlying math continues to matter more than the headlines.

June 2, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why they believe oil markets remain disconnected from physical reality despite three months of disruption in the Strait. They break down the growing gap between price action and fundamentals, why traders continue waiting on an "all clear" signal, the latest developments in the Middle East, concerns about liquidity beneath the surface of the market, Bitcoin's recent breakdown, Mag 7 equity issuance, AI-driven speculation, and why several asset classes may be sending a very different message than headline indexes suggest.

June 1, 2026 - Chase discusses why the oil market may still be dramatically underestimating the consequences of a three-month Strait closure. Despite a surge in crude prices, improving risk sentiment, and renewed optimism around negotiations, global inventories continue to tighten while critical questions remain unanswered. Chase also covers the latest developments involving Iran, Lebanon, and Israel, rising inflation risks, potential Fed rate hikes, the changing supply-demand dynamics in equities, and why international markets continue to outperform many U.S. investors' expectations.

May 29, 2026 - Chase discusses why investor positioning may be creating a dangerous disconnect between market pricing and physical reality. As volatility collapses, speculative assets surge, and bearish bets get squeezed out, oil traders appear to be throwing in the towel despite ongoing inventory draws, unresolved Strait negotiations, and tightening global supply. Chase breaks down the latest developments with Iran, why sentiment may matter more than headlines right now, and what investors could be missing if energy markets are approaching a major inflection point.

May 27, 2026 - Zach goes solo to break down why the current energy setup may be one of the clearest value-with-a-catalyst opportunities he’s seen since the GameStop short squeeze and the 2021–2022 energy trade. He explains why investors continue crowding into AI and semiconductor momentum while largely ignoring what he believes are historically undervalued energy producers sitting in front of a major supply shortage. Zach also discusses oil inventories, SPR math, China’s strategic reserves, valuation discipline, value investing psychology, and why the best trades often feel the hardest to own in real time.

May 26, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why the current market setup is beginning to resemble the late stages of a speculative blow-off while the underlying energy system continues deteriorating underneath. They break down the massive rally in semiconductors and AI infrastructure stocks, why memory-chip pricing may be dangerously disconnected from reality, and why markets continue dismissing what they believe is the largest energy disruption in modern history. They also discuss oil market mechanics, futures positioning, inflation risks, housing affordability, monetary policy distortions, and why years of financialization may have disconnected markets from physical reality itself.

May 22, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why the global energy situation may be entering a far more dangerous phase even as markets continue betting on a clean resolution. They break down the growing tension around the Strait of Hormuz negotiations, why repeated “jawboning” around oil prices may actually signal deeper concern from policymakers, and how a prolonged supply shock could bleed into inflation expectations, agriculture, freight, and global growth. They also discuss fertilizer markets, chemical companies, bond yields, housing affordability, Fed policy, and why decades of falling interest rates may have fundamentally distorted the global economy.

May 21, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why markets may still be dramatically underestimating the long-term consequences of the Strait of Hormuz disruption even as negotiations appear to be moving toward a resolution. They break down why oil inventories could continue tightening for months after any agreement, why tanker maintenance and damaged infrastructure may delay normalization far longer than expected, and why energy producers could become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the next phase of the cycle. They also discuss offshore drilling, Chinese semiconductors, AI infrastructure, rising bond yields, and why markets continue treating a structural supply problem like a temporary headline event.

May 20, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why markets continue reacting to every new “imminent peace” headline even as the underlying energy and inflation pressures keep worsening beneath the surface. They break down the latest Strait of Hormuz developments, why oil markets may still be dramatically underpricing future shortages, how SPR releases are masking deeper inventory problems, and why rising bond yields may be the real warning sign investors should be watching. They also discuss inflation risks, housing pressure, Nvidia earnings, semiconductor valuations, and why policymakers may be running out of realistic options.

May 19, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why bond markets may finally be waking up to the inflationary consequences of the global energy disruption as yields surge and investors continue underestimating the fragility of the system. They break down the latest Strait of Hormuz developments, why SPR releases and exports may only be temporary relief valves, how energy shortages could create delayed but violent inflation waves, and why markets still appear dangerously complacent about physical supply realities. They also discuss China, housing pressure from rising rates, AI infrastructure spending, and why many investors may still be treating this like a normal cycle when it clearly is not.

May 18, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why energy markets may be far closer to a breaking point than investors realize as global inventories continue tightening and policymakers scramble to manage the fallout. They break down the latest Strait of Hormuz developments, why SPR drawdowns and U.S. exports may be masking deeper shortages, how China is positioning itself strategically, and why markets still appear dangerously complacent about inflation and supply risks. They also discuss rising bond yields, housing pressure, AI infrastructure spending, and why the next phase of this cycle could look very different from the last decade.

May 18, 2026 - Zach and Chase are joined by Josh Young of Bison Interests to discuss why global energy markets may be far more fragile than investors realize. Josh breaks down the real inventory math behind the Strait of Hormuz disruption, why oil markets have remained surprisingly calm so far, what happens when global storage levels approach “tank bottoms,” and why many analysts may still be underestimating the scale of the risk. They also discuss SPR drawdowns, refinery margins, shale productivity, geopolitical uncertainty, and why energy service companies may offer some of the most asymmetric opportunities in the market today.

May 15, 2026 - Chase breaks down why surging bond yields, a stronger dollar, and rising inflation pressures may be creating some of the biggest long-term investing opportunities in years. He discusses why global capital flows could be shifting away from the U.S., why ex-U.S. defense and emerging markets remain compelling despite recent selloffs, what rising rates mean for gold and equities, and why policymakers may eventually be forced to weaken the dollar again. Chase also covers the fallout from the U.S.-China summit, sanctions risk, semiconductors, and why short-term market stress may create long-term positioning opportunities.

May 14, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why markets may still be dramatically underestimating the scale of the global energy disruption despite worsening inventory draws, tightening supply conditions, and mounting inflationary pressures. They break down the disconnect between semiconductor euphoria and physical energy realities, why diesel prices may matter more than crude itself, China’s strategic positioning, SPR depletion, freight inflation risks, and why policymakers continue stimulating demand into what they believe is an unfolding supply shock.

May 13, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why markets continue ignoring mounting energy stress even as inventories tighten, inflation pressures rise, and supply disruptions worsen globally. They break down Nvidia surpassing the value of India’s stock market, the growing disconnect between AI valuations and real-world profitability, why passive investment flows may be weakening underneath the surface, and how years of monetary intervention may have fundamentally distorted market behavior. They also discuss inflation surprises, China’s economic pivot, and why policymakers may no longer be able to tolerate meaningful declines in asset prices.

May 12, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why energy markets may be far more fragile than investors realize as physical shortages continue building beneath the surface. They break down why current oil pricing may be dangerously disconnected from real-world supply conditions, how refiners are navigating tightening inventories, why inflation risks continue growing globally, and what happens if the Strait of Hormuz disruption lasts longer than markets expect. They also discuss AI spending mania, emerging market opportunities, commodity tightness, and why investors may be underestimating how serious this macro environment has become.

May 11, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss why the biggest risk in global energy markets may not be the initial shock — but the delayed consequences already moving through the system. They break down worsening fuel shortages, distorted oil pricing, diesel stress, inflation risks, and why the market still appears disconnected from physical supply realities. They also discuss how AI infrastructure spending increasingly resembles prior speculative bubbles, why inflation metrics may be understating real-world pressure, and why commodity markets could remain structurally tight for years.

May 8, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the growing disconnect between market pricing, geopolitical reality, and the actual physical oil market. They discuss repeated “ceasefire” headlines, why the Strait of Hormuz situation may be far more serious than investors believe, and how narrative management may be suppressing critical price signals across energy markets. The conversation also dives into increasingly speculative AI and semiconductor valuations, comparisons to the late stages of the dot-com bubble, and why today’s market behavior is beginning to look historically dangerous.

May 7, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the growing disconnect between market pricing and physical reality as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed far longer than most investors expected. They discuss why oil markets continue behaving irrationally, how political messaging is distorting price signals, and why passive flows and AI momentum may be overwhelming fundamentals across the broader market. The conversation also dives into semiconductors, China’s tech ambitions, and why today’s market structure may be more fragile than most people realize.

May 6, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the latest headlines surrounding a possible Iran deal and why markets may be celebrating far too early. They discuss the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the growing disconnect between paper and physical oil markets, and why a rushed resolution could leave Iran in a stronger geopolitical position than before. The conversation also dives into market manipulation concerns, the weakening dollar, global capital flows, and why many investors may still be looking in the wrong places.

May 5, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down the growing disconnect between market behavior and underlying economic reality. Despite rising costs and mounting pressure on key industries like airlines and restaurants, many stocks continue to hold up or rally. They explore how AI-driven capex is distorting earnings, why certain sectors are facing unavoidable margin compression, and how inflation could hit consumers harder this time without the buffers seen in prior cycles. The conversation also dives into market concentration, global opportunities, and why patience may matter more than chasing momentum right now.

May 4, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why markets continue to underreact to escalating risks in energy and global supply chains. They discuss renewed hostilities in the Middle East, tightening oil markets, and why the current pricing disconnect may not last. The conversation also explores inflation risks, global growth concerns, and how second-order effects—from food to consumer spending—could begin compounding in the months ahead.

May 1, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why the current oil and geopolitical situation may be far more dangerous than markets are pricing in. They walk through the concept of a “chain of errors,” how supply shocks compound over time, and why delayed economic effects could still be building beneath the surface. The conversation also covers global food risks, investor complacency, and why markets may not be sending the right signals in this environment.

April 30, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down a confusing market rally happening against a backdrop of rising oil, inflation pressure, and global uncertainty. They discuss why international markets are outperforming, how currency moves are driving short-term behavior, and why many investors may be buying the wrong assets. The conversation also dives into AI capex risks, distorted earnings signals, and why the easiest opportunities may be outside of U.S. markets right now.

April 29, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why the current energy situation is fundamentally different from past oil shocks—and why the market may still be underestimating the impact. They walk through tightening inventories, rising fuel prices, and the cascading effects of supply constraints across the global economy. The discussion also covers tech earnings, rising capex pressures, Fed policy shifts, and why inflation could move significantly higher if current trends continue.

April 28, 2026 - Zach and Chase break down why investors consistently misjudge compounding—both in markets and in macro risk. They discuss Paul Tudor Jones’ insights on exponential thinking, why high-growth companies may not be as expensive as they appear, and how AI investment differs from past tech booms. The conversation also dives into rising supply pressures in equities, ongoing confusion around the Strait of Hormuz, and why the market may be underestimating how risk builds over time.

.Zach and Chase break down the daily dots from March 3rd.

Zach has a market update. 

Zach and Chase break down the daily dots from today's action. 

Zach has a market update and a chat with Tobias Carlisle.