Know Your Risk Podcast
by Know Your Risk Radio
Do you know how much risk your retirement portfolio is actually exposed to? Whether it’s preservation of capital or an aggressive growth strategy, every investor needs a clearly defined RISK PROFILE. Host Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer at Bulwark Capital Management, will cover all types of investment vehicles and you’ll learn what investing looks like when portfolios aren’t influenced by the corporate objectives of the big banks and Wall Street brokerage houses. Subscribe to the podcast here. The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Any refere
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Episodes
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AI Stocks Sink. The Buildout Has a New Problem.
November 5, 2026 – Yesterday’s rally gave way to a sharp selloff, with chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks taking some of the biggest hits. What changed—and how much of the damage reflects a different outlook versus investors rushing to unwind crowded trades? Zach and Chase examine how...
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Reacting to the Blue Wave: Is the Market Overreacting?
November 4, 2026 - A blue wave at the ballot box. A rally in stocks. A sharp selloff in oil. How much actually changed overnight? Zach and Chase react to the midterms and debate what divided government could mean for investors. Markets may welcome gridlock, but does the election justify the size…
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AI Is Spending Big. Will Customers Pay Up?
November 3, 2026 - AI could become part of almost everything we do. But will enough customers pay enough money, soon enough, to justify the enormous investment happening now? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine the gap between AI’s potential and its business economics. Using Netflix and Uber as...
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Are Investors Hiding in the Wrong Stocks?
November 2, 2026 - Investors fleeing the AI selloff are looking for somewhere safe. But what happens when the hiding places are expensive, too? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor question the prices investors are paying for familiar businesses like Walmart, Costco, and Apple. A dependable company can...
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AI Can Win. Your Stocks Can Still Lose.
October 30, 2026 - What if AI changes the world—and the stocks you bought to profit from it still struggle? As technology stocks sell off, Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor separate two questions investors often treat as one: whether AI succeeds, and whether the companies building its infrastructure...
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You Buy the Rally. Big Tech Sells More Stock.
October 29, 2026 - Investors want a piece of the AI boom. But how much new stock will they have to absorb to keep funding it? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine a problem that gets less attention than earnings growth: the enormous capital needs behind AI. When rising stock prices give…
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The Theranos Warning Investors Keep Ignoring
October 28, 2026 - A brilliant founder. An impressive board. A compelling story. None of those proves the investment works. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor revisit Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos to examine how confidence and famous names can lend credibility to claims investors should be…
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AI’s Biggest Threat Might Be Better AI
October 27, 2026 - What if the biggest threat to today’s AI winners isn’t fading demand—but technology getting better? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine how cheaper chips, more efficient systems and AI’s own breakthroughs could put pressure on the profit margins powering the stock-market…
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A Brazil ETF Plunged 38%. They Bought.
October 26, 2026 - A political shock sends investors scrambling out of Brazil. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor see a reason to start buying. Chase describes adding a small position in a Brazilian small-cap ETF that fell as much as 38% intraday before closing down roughly 31.6%—and explains why he...
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What If We’re Still Early in the AI Boom?
October 23, 2026 - AI stocks have already delivered enormous gains. That doesn’t mean the best evidence points to a top. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor explain their reluctant bullish case: demand could have much further to run, and some of the companies supplying the buildout look surprisingly...
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The AI Boom’s Next Bill Could Land on Shareholders
October 22, 2026 - The AI buildout can keep going while shareholders pay a growing price. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine Meta’s financing plans and the risk that issuing more stock to fund enormous spending commitments dilutes the investors already holding shares . The tension runs through…
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Would Tesla Shareholders Be Funding SpaceX?
October 21, 2026 - A Tesla–SpaceX combination could give investors a bigger growth story. But who would actually be funding it? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor unpack the merger talk and question whether Tesla shareholders would be financing SpaceX’s capital demands while still paying a…
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Could Falling Oil Prices Unleash the Next AI Rally?
October 20, 2026 - The next catalyst for AI stocks might come from the oil market. Chase Taylor explains why an end to the Iran war—and the relief it could bring to energy prices, inflation and borrowing costs—could change the outlook for companies financing the AI buildout. Flying solo, Chase…
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AI Can Win. Your AI Stocks Can Still Lose.
October 19, 2026 - Believing AI will change the world is one thing. Knowing which stocks will reward investors is another. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor explain why they can be enthusiastic about the technology while questioning whether today’s AI infrastructure winners belong in a buy-and-hold...
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They Cut Half Their VIX Hedge—Then VIX Spiked
October 16, 2026 - Zach and Chase unpack a market that seemed to ignore mounting risks—until volatility finally jumped. Zach makes a candid confession: they cut their VIX exposure in half the day before the surge. They discuss oil pushing toward $100, rates and options positioning, then look…
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AI Demand Is Booming. Why Are Token Prices Falling?
October 15, 2026 - Zach and Chase discuss the tension inside the AI boom: demand for compute is rising, but token prices are falling as the industry keeps investing in more capacity. They examine what that could mean for hyperscalers, leveraged neoclouds, and the economics of the buildout. They...
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AI Tokens Are Getting Cheaper. Is That Good News?
October 14, 2026 — AI-token prices are falling even as volume grows. Is that evidence the technology is getting cheaper to use—or a warning for businesses carrying huge infrastructure costs? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor weigh the pressure on AI economics against the possibility that, if demand…
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Rudy Havenstein: Trump Says Inflation Will Pay the Debt. Who Pays?
October 14, 2026 — President Trump says inflation can pay down the national debt. Rudy Havenstein calls inflation “a super regressive default,” arguing that it shifts the cost onto ordinary households while the wealthy are better positioned to benefit. Zach Abraham and Rudy discuss what official...
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The Market Is Splitting in Two—and AI Is Driving the Divide
October 13, 2026 — The biggest technology stocks continue to dominate the market, while small caps, rate-sensitive businesses and parts of the real economy are telling a very different story. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down an increasingly divided market: the Magnificent Seven reaching...
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Apple Is Worth $4.5 Trillion. Can the Fundamentals Catch Up?
October 12, 2026 — Apple is now worth roughly $4.5 trillion and trading around 44 times earnings. Zach Abraham says he’s struggling to make the fundamental math work.Zach and Chase Taylor break down the disconnect between Apple’s enormous valuation, its recent revenue growth, buybacks and capital...
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The “Debasement Trade” Is Coming Back. Here’s What That Means
October 9, 2026 — Gold, miners and other real-asset trades are beginning to behave differently, even on days when the U.S. dollar is holding up. Zach Abraham says the pattern is starting to resemble a return of the “debasement trade.” Zach and Chase Taylor explain what that actually means: assets...
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AI Spending Is Starting to Move Interest Rates
October 8, 2026 — Artificial-intelligence spending has become so enormous that Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor believe it increasingly belongs in the macroeconomic conversation — not just the technology conversation. Back together in the studio, Zach and Chase examine how massive AI capital…
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Inflation Can Shrink the Debt. What Does That Mean for Your Money?
October 7, 2026 — Inflation can reduce the real burden of government debt. But that doesn't make the debt disappear — it changes who bears the cost. Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are finally back together, and they begin by unpacking the idea that inflation can effectively help governments manage...
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Oil Is Under $90. Why Is 2027 Pricing Still Climbing?
October 6, 2026 — WTI crude is back below $90, but farther-out oil contracts are still pushing higher. Chase Taylor explains why the futures curve may be telling a different story from the headline price — and what persistent supply and geopolitical risk could mean for the market further down the...
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The 10-Year Is Above 5%. Why Aren’t Stocks Falling?
October 5, 2026 — Treasury yields have surged above 5%, yet major stock indexes are still trading near record highs. Chase Taylor explains why those two things may not be as contradictory as they first appear. Chase reframes the rate story by looking at what has happened to nominal economic…
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Stocks Were Green. Then the Pros Started Selling.
September 30, 2026 — Stocks spent much of the day higher before selling off sharply into the close. Zach Abraham explains why he pays particular attention to the final stretch of trading — when institutional activity becomes more dominant — and why today’s reversal stood out against a backdrop of...
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Higher Rates Are Already Doing Damage. Stocks Haven’t Reacted Yet
September 29, 2026 — Interest rates have moved sharply higher, but the stock market still appears remarkably calm. Zach Abraham argues that underneath the headline indexes, the damage from higher borrowing costs is already showing up. Zach breaks down why higher rates matter far beyond the bond...
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Why the AI Winners May Not Be Big Tech
September 28, 2026 — Big Tech is pouring extraordinary amounts of capital into artificial intelligence. But does spending the most money mean capturing the most value?Zach Abraham looks at the AI boom through a different lens after a conversation with the founder of a fast-growing AI startup.…
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Stocks Stayed Flat as Bond Yields Exploded. Something Doesn't Add Up
September 24, 2026 — Stocks finished roughly flat even as Treasury yields surged, oil climbed and the dollar strengthened. Zach Abraham breaks down one of the strangest market sessions he's seen lately — and explains why he puts more weight on the bond market when stocks and bonds start telling...
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The Market Took a Week to React to the Fed
September 23, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates last week, but some of the biggest market reactions may only now be showing up. The 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5.1% today to its highest level since 2007 as stocks moved lower. Zach Abraham explains why he believes markets have become...
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AI Is Turning Big Tech Into a Commodity Business
September 22, 2026 — Big Tech built some of the most profitable businesses in history on network effects, enormous margins and powerful competitive moats. Zach Abraham argues the AI arms race may be changing that economic model. As Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and others pour extraordinary...
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Nasdaq Hits a Record High—But More Stocks Are Hitting New Lows
September 21, 2026 — The Nasdaq closed at a record high today, helped by a huge rally in Meta. But underneath the headline index, something much less bullish was happening: more Nasdaq stocks were hitting 52-week lows than 52-week highs. Meta finished up roughly 11%, while the Nasdaq gained about...
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Why a Middle-Class Life Costs So Much More Now
September 18, 2026 — A normal middle-class life has become dramatically more expensive. Zach Abraham looks beyond the latest inflation print and asks a bigger question: what happened to the relationship between wages and the cost of housing, education, everyday life, and asset ownership? Zach...
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Oil Is Falling While the War Continues. What Is the Market Pricing In?
September 17, 2026 — Oil prices are pulling back even as geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Zach Abraham explains why the market’s surprisingly calm reaction may be sending an important signal about what investors expect next. Zach breaks down the latest moves in oil and interest rates…
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The Fed Just Hiked. The Refinancing Pain Is Just Starting
September 16, 2026 — The Federal Reserve raised rates again today. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue the bigger story may be the borrowing costs businesses still haven’t had to refinance into yet. They examine the coming refinancing cycle, why loans written in the cheap-money era may reset…
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The 10-Year Just Hit 5%. What Breaks First?
September 15, 2026 — The 10-year Treasury is back around 5%, borrowing costs are at levels not seen in nearly two decades, and Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor are asking the question that usually follows: what breaks first? They examine where higher rates are already creating stress — from housing...
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AI Agents Built Their Own Secret Chat Room. No One Programmed Them To.
September 14, 2026 - Memory and chip stocks got hit hard today (DRAM down 7%, semiconductors down nearly 5%) after frontier AI labs signaled they may be slowing development — even as the hyperscalers actually funding that buildout (Google, Meta, Microsoft) traded up 2-3% the same day. Chase…
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Saudi Arabia Begged Trump to Bomb the Houthis. He Refused.
September 11, 2026 - Oil dropped 1.7% today even after Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline went offline (3.5 million barrels a day of exports) and confirmation that Saudi production just hit a 36-year low — supply news that should have sent prices higher. Zach and Chase break down why: Gulf states...
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Oil Just Beat Every AI Stock This Year — And It's About to Cost You More
September 10, 2026 - Oil ripped nearly 7% today, WTI pressing $103 and Brent hitting $108, on news that Saudi output has fallen to a 36-year low and Houthi forces have seized a coastal city and multiple Red Sea islands near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait — putting them in position to threaten shipping...
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Without AI Spending, US Growth Might Already Be Negative
September 9, 2026 - The jobs numbers are solid, prices are up, and the labor market's strong — by every normal measure the Fed should be raising rates, not talking about cutting them. But Chase makes the case that the reason those numbers look strong at all comes down to one narrow input: AI...
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Could Gold Hit $10,000? Why This Inflation Cycle May Have Years Left
September 8, 2026 — Could gold eventually reach $10,000? Zach Abraham explains why he believes today's inflationary cycle may have much further to run — and why investors may be preparing for the wrong kind of risk. Zach and Chase Taylor discuss why the playbook built around deflationary crashes...
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Nvidia to $10 Trillion? The Risk-Reward Doesn't Add Up
September 4, 2026 — Could Nvidia really become a $10 trillion company? Maybe. But Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor argue that's not the only question investors should be asking. They break down the risk-reward behind today's biggest AI trade, why an extraordinary company can still become difficult…
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The S&P 500 Isn't What You Think You're Buying
September 3, 2026 — The S&P 500 has long been treated as a simple way to broadly own the U.S. market. But is that still what investors are actually buying? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor examine how extreme concentration in technology, semiconductors and communications has changed the makeup of...
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The AI Data Center Boom Has a Jobs Problem
September 2, 2026 — The AI data-center buildout is accelerating, but what are local communities actually getting in return? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the economics behind the data-center boom, why enormous investments in power and infrastructure don't necessarily translate into...
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Could Diesel Hit $6? The Strait of Hormuz Problem Is Back
September 1, 2026 — Could diesel prices be headed toward $6? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor break down the renewed escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, why ship-to-ship oil transfers may have become much more difficult again, and why refined products could become an even bigger problem...
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Iran Could Take 4 Million Barrels a Day Off the Market
August 31, 2026 — Chase Taylor explains why Iran’s apparent ability to threaten smaller ship-to-ship oil transfers could sharply reduce the volume moving through the Strait—from roughly 7 million barrels a day toward 2–3 million.Chase examines why that would be such a serious shock for an oil...
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Eight Rate Hikes? Why the Fed Has No Good Options Left
August 28, 2026 — Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss Kevin Warsh’s hawkish message, why a traditional Taylor Rule framework could imply as many as eight rate hikes, and why the Fed may now be trapped between persistent inflation and the economic damage caused by tighter policy. They also…
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Gold Miners Just Rallied Nearly 50%. Why They May Still Be Cheap
August 27, 2026 — Gold-mining stocks have rallied nearly 50% from their mid-July lows. Zach Abraham explains why some miners may still offer unusually compelling value—and why a rising stock price does not necessarily mean the underlying opportunity has disappeared. Zach walks through how...
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AI Can Change the World—and Still Become a Bubble
August 26, 2026 - Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why revolutionary technologies can still produce enormous investment bubbles—and why the unprecedented buildout surrounding artificial intelligence may eventually face the same problem. Chase explains why capital-spending booms throughout...
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One of Wall Street’s Greatest Investors Just Sounded the Alarm
August 25, 2026 - Chase Taylor discusses billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller's public criticism of recent Treasury policy—and why Chase believes the warning deserves far more attention than the controversy over how the op-ed was written. Chase examines Treasury's attempts to influence the...
About this show
Do you know how much risk your retirement portfolio is actually exposed to? Whether it’s preservation of capital or an aggressive growth strategy, every investor needs a clearly defined RISK PROFILE. Host Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer at Bulwark Capital Management, will cover all types of investment vehicles and you’ll learn what investing looks like when portfolios aren’t influenced by the corporate objectives of the big banks and Wall Street brokerage houses. Subscribe to the podcast here. The opinions expressed in this program are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security. To determine which investments may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any past performance discussed during this program is no guarantee of future results. Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Any refere
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