Macro Minutes

The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been quite resilient in the face of these shocks. While the starting point should keep the BoC on hold for the rest of the year, better prospects for growth are ahead and this should see the BoC delivering hikes in 2027. Listen for more detailed views on the Canadian economy and fixed income markets in the coming quarters.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canadian Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades for the current environment, and key risks to their outlook.Participants:Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this special edition of Macro Minutes, Peter Schaffrik is joined by Blake Gwinn to dissect the first FOMC meeting under the new chairman Warsh. Blake shares his views on the task forces set up, the market reaction to the change in the SEP projections and explains why he still does not expect rate hikes this year.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meeting and compare and contrast the two central banks’ approach to monetary policy at present.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Recorded at the Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference in New York, this special edition brings a real-time read on where markets stand. Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joined Amy Wu Silverman and Callie Simpkins for an on-the-ground conversation about the US equity outlook and key macro themes. They break down why inflation remains the risk to watch and what it means for equity market positioning.Participants:Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyAmy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives StrategyCallie Simpkins, Managing Director, Cross-Asset Hedge Fund Sales* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There are good reasons to wait for confirmation of a deal before loading up on risk. But while we wait, we recommend being oil-neutral via RV strategies between energy importers. In a post-war world, we see opportunities to turn bullish on currencies that have been dragged by the war. We also discuss potential the impact of politics in Latam and EMEA FX, China fiscal stimulus, KRW underperformance, and more.Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Sterling markets have had a rough ride over the last few weeks. In part this is against the backdrop of the oil price shock, but it is also due to the domestic political uncertainty that has once again come to the fore. In this episode, Peter Schaffrik and Cathal Kennedy unpick the difficult situation, provide a view on the outcome of the recent turmoil along with an outlook on what the political landscape in the UK might look like in the months and years to come.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes or looking past risks that haven't fully materialized yet. We also dig into what a Warsh-led Fed means for forward guidance, dissent, and market volatility, and what the shifting policy backdrop means for how investors position across equities and rates.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Uncertainty on the path of the Iran conflict remains. The second and third order effects for the global economy have yet to be seen, but FX markets are taking an optimistic view on the outcome of the conflict. In this episode, we look at how emerging markets have been responding over the past two months, and what we are paying attention to for opportunities across Latin America, Asia, and EMEA.Participants:Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before the war started. Policy responses will not be uniform across countries but some central banks might be inclined to move pre-emptively while others could wait a lot longer. In episode we discuss why hikes could occur by mid-year in the UK & Europe while the BoC and Fed will be more patient and hold the line.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wrote a detailed note about the private credit market and the potential pitfalls. Marc and Peter recap why markets have recently become wary of private credit, explore where the problems might lie and what potential contagion channels into the public markets exist.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsMarc Sanchez (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Sector Strategy*Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporters like Australia are feeling the pinch, how central banks will respond to stagflation, and why US equities have remained resilient , though caution is warranted as more significant market headwinds may be emerging.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsRobert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates StrategistIzaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would allow oil prices to retreat toward $80 per barrel, providing relief to EM economies and supporting risk assets. The second scenario contemplates further escalation, potentially including boots-on-the-ground military intervention, which would keep oil prices elevated for an extended period. This sustained pressure would create headwinds for EM growth, inflation dynamics, and external balances. We assess the implications of each path for emerging market currencies.Participants:Luis Estrada(Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and map a path forward for the ECB and BoE.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistGeorge Moran (Desk Strategy), European Macro Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hitting software equity valuations and credit spreads, which in turn is feeding into concerns over vehicles exposed to that widening, namely the Broadly Syndicated loan market, the Private Credit market, BDCs and even Insurance Companies. Valuation declines have in turn driven redemption requests which has placed more pressure on credit spreadsParticipants:Jason Mandel (Desk Strategy), Head of Leveraged Finance Desk StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySteven Denny (Desk Strategy), Head of US IG Credit Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment.Participants:Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors have continued to accumulate USD denominated assets, but with a cautious bias (i.e. hedging). To unpack these complexities you will hear insights from Blake Gwinn (Head of US Rates Strategy), Richard Cochinos (FX Strategy), and Chris Louney (Natural Gas and Gold Strategist).Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistMegum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition’ we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the uncertainties, we still see value in the short end of the UK Gilt curve, also versus the EUR market. We also outline that we see the ECB on hold for the rest of the year despite inflation being below the 2% target and why we think the EUR yield curve steepening is far from over.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistMegum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

There seems to be a confluence of factors that have conspired to be the perfect storm for gold. Prices gains have been parabolic, the recent correction severe, but dip buyers arrived in force to support the market. Is there still a golden opportunity in the shiny metal?Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyChristopher Louney (Research), Gold & Natural Gas Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We are introducing our new EM Pulse publication, highlighting our views across Asia, EMEA, and LatAm in 2026. This episode features discussions from our positive view on CNY and China’s outlook to why we think the South African rand’s positive momentum can continue and the role of FX carry in the outperformance of LatAm FX this year.Participants:Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistLuis Estrada (Desk Strategy), LATAM FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again and have lately filtered into markets more clearly. Global bond yields started rising again, the yield curve steepened from both ends and the USD is on the back foot again. Meanwhile, the JGB market is under pressure and JPY worries are mounting.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

As central banks chart divergent paths into 2026, regional opportunities and risks emerge across markets. Join our rates experts from the US, Canada, Europe, and APAC on a world tour breaking down what policy divergence means for bond yields, inflation risks, relative market performance, and how to navigate the year ahead. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Robert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

RBC BlueBay CEO Eric Gerth discusses the asset manager's $700B global growth, industry consolidation drivers, and the strategic importance of scale, culture, and AI investment in shaping the future of financial services.

With the Fed signaling meaningful changes to their policy stance, what will be the cascading effects across US rates, equities, and global FX markets in what promises to be a pivotal period for investors? In this episode, we discuss the interconnected challenges of monetary policy pivots, earnings expectations heading into 2026, and the looming Supreme Court decision on US tariffs that could reshape global trade dynamics.Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There are some known unknowns about how this will impact the economic data but there are also lots of unknown unknowns. In this episode, we will shed light on what it means for the economy, Fed, and bond market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Michael Reid (Economics), Senior US Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed, and how low terminal rates might go. As the outlook for global central bank policies continues to evolve, particularly the Fed, it could have far-reaching implications for global asset markets.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy): Head of North American Rates Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy): Head of US Rates Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. From the Bank of England's hawkish cuts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious easing, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amid market pressures, we delve into the similarities, differences, and uncertainties shaping monetary policy decisions across these regions. Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, fiscal loosening has been a feature across many geographies and is getting an increasing amount of attention from financial markets. In this episode, we look at the similarities and differences in fiscal approaches, and how markets are reacting in the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates.Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging activity.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyRichard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next?Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEASolenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing Director, Global Markets SolutionsAkilesh Eswaran (Desk Strategy), Global Head of QIS and EMEA Head of Equity TradingSamkit Tated (Desk Strategy), Director of QIS Structuring.* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing approach and what it means for each going forward. Participants:Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Today we break down the trade war, the dollar, equities, rates, earnings season, and what it all means for markets—plus a quick dive into Treasury refunding.Participants:Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It is a unique time for economies and financial markets - political decisions are increasingly driving economic outcomes and asset markets rather than the other way around. Today's episode unpacks what it means for US & Canada and the implications for equity markets. Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and explanation as to what inspired us. Market swings have been very large on the back of the back and forth in the tariffs culminating in a 90 day pause being announced this week. Helping us to bring some order into the chaos, I am joined by Blake Gwinn, RBC’s head of US rates strategy and Elsa Lignos, Head of FX strategy. Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last?Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEAAnke Reingen (Desk Strategy), Global Co-Head of Financials ResearchMarc Sanchez Roger (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Credit Sector* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Explore how Trump's policies are reshaping global defense. Experts from RBC Capital Markets analyze the economic and strategic shifts in UK, European, and US defense spending.Participants:Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEAPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Chief European Macro StrategistKen Herbert (Research), Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The butterfly effect is where a change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Indeed, US trade policies are having significant intended and unintended consequences for various countries that is impacting fiscal policy and politics and potentially and monetary policy and the bond market.Participants:Jason Daw(Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The signals are mixed, but the outlook for the U.K economy is uncertain at best, while geopolitical risks add further potential volatility. So why is the U.K. banking sector looking forward to another strong year?Participants:Janet Wilkinson Head of Global Markets Flow Sales EMEAKofi Oteng Head of Flow Rate Sales EMEA Benjamin Toms Director European Banks Equity Research* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The degree to which lingering tariff uncertainty impacts both market and general economic outcomes remains unclear. Economies are evolving regardless, with Europe and Canada seeing some improvement, while US exceptionalism is perhaps fading. Issuance and regulatory developments have brought swap spreads - the difference between swap rates and bond yields of the same term - back into focus. Persistent bond weakening in North America is now in question.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

This weekend and the start of the trading week were heavily impacted by President Trump announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. They were ultimately postponed for Mexico and Canada, but he has the EU in his sights as well This edition we discuss central banks in the context of tariffs, but also what the non-tariff fundamentals are suggesting for policy going forward. The Fed paused its cutting cycle just last week, while the BoC and ECB cut 25bp and the BoE looks poised to do so later this week.Participants:Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistRobert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The biggest known unknown for economies and financial markets is what will happen with tariffs – are they just being threatened as a bargaining chip for transactional purposes, if they come to fruition what will their breadth, size, and duration be, and will trading partners retaliate. Unfortunately for investors, the matrix of possibilities is endless, and each has a low probability chance. In this edition our asset class experts provide answers to the difficult questions.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Will Trump’s bite match his bark on tariffs? If it does, the economic damage could be severe but central bank responses are not clear cut in the short term. While Trump policy is the primary risk factor, there are many other question marks – Is the Fed finished the easing cycle? What happens with Canada politics? Will the ongoing rout in global bond markets continue? Is the USD destined to remain strong? – that are important for asset markets in 2025.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The BoC ended the year with another large rate cut but they are expected to SLOW the pace in 2025, while the Fed has already SLOWed down after an outsized move in September and seems locked in to deliver a regular size move tomorrow. The ECB should take it SLOW and the market is increasingly pricing a SLOW pace for the BoE. Central banks should proceed at a variable and uneven pace reflecting differences in macro fundamentals.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We are approaching final central bank decisions of 2024 with uncertainty about ultimate outcomes, but clear differences across jurisdictions on where economies are headed. In Canada, soft growth data has solidified our expectation for a second consecutive 50bp cut despite firmer inflation data last month, while US economic exceptionalism has markets pricing a material possibility of a skip on the 18th. Across the Atlantic, the ECB is debating between 25bp and 50bp, while the BoE looks set to pass at its final meeting of 2024. Meanwhile, FX and equity markets have been impacted by the central bank pricing volatility, incoming Trump administration and the threat of US tariffs.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

For macro and bond investors, 2024 has been challenging. Despite central banks cutting rates, bond yields have remained high, and country-specific macroeconomic factors have heavily influenced allocation strategies. Looking ahead to 2025, returns in global fixed income will largely depend on the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the extent of the Federal Reserve's easing measures. Macro nuances are expected to continue playing a critical role in cross country performance.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistRobert Thompson (Research), Australian Macro Rates Strategist * Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The ECB delivered another cut today and there is more to come, the BoC is primed to start cutting in 50bp increments and do a lot over the cycle, the Fed should cut further but only a little bit, and China has recently delivered a lot of stimulus. The RBNZ has recently cut 50bp and could follow up with materially more. But the outlier is the RBA who is sitting patiently and doesn’t appear ready to cut anytime soon. So while most centrals are moving in the same direction there is notable differences in the speed and magnitude of cuts across countries.Participants:Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistAlvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy), Asia FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Fed delivered a super-sized rate cut to the start of the cycle last week. More likely they go back to smaller 25bp moves if labour data remains resilient. But another large move is not out of the realm of possibility. We think the BoC is on course for 5 straight 25’s but they could front-load with a 50bp move in October or December if growth data shows a large undershoot vs potential. The BoE and ECB seem set to take things slow, but a larger cut is a non-zero chance.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

With the Fed and ECB set to follow the BoC’s lead with 25bp cuts of their own, a number of the major central banks are now back in sync. So far, these central banks look to be proceeding gradually along their respective cutting paths, but the possibility of larger cuts still loom should economic conditions start to deteriorate. Meanwhile, others are proving even more cautious, with the next cut from central banks such as the RBA and BoE even further afield.Participants:Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistResearch Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts