Episodes
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Votes and Volatility
Lula shocked Brazil – BRL is still reeling. Israel's votes are in – no winner yet. South Africa passed the budget test – local elections are next. And year-end seasonality? Right around the corner. Participants: Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro Strategist Daria Parkhomenko (Desk...
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Canadian Equity Compass
Interesting factoid - the Canadian stock market has outperformed the S&P and Nasdaq over the last year and has similar performance YTD. Who would have thought, without the AI driver and with tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Listen to this episode to hear from Sara Mahaffy who recently…
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Around the world in 15 minutes
A broad tour of global FX markets spanning Asia, G10, and LatAm, covering key currency trades, positioning, and central bank divergence. The discussion highlights major risks into year-end, including an AI-trade pullback, China trade tensions, US Treasury moves, and political uncertainty in…
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Wake up call
There has been a substantial widening of spreads in the European bond markets. While the epicentre is in the French bond market, it seems to have morphed from a French idiosyncratic problem to a broader one, a problem that comes on top of a whole list of issues and specifically on top of the…
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Dumpster fire
Bond yields have spiked globally led by an inter-related combination of oil prices and re-pricing of central bank terminal rates. Momentum and investors exiting long exposure has added fuel to the fire. To put it in context, the one-month increase in US 2y yields is one of the largest over the…
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EM under pressure: when resilience runs out
For most of 2026, Emerging Market assets held their ground against a wall of external headwinds — but September may mark the moment that resilience finally cracks. A surprise Fed hike, relentless UST repricing, and a USD trading near multi-year highs are draining the confidence that underpinned…
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Time is ticking!
The ECB hiked rates a second time in this cycle last week and did not suggest that the 2.50% they previously flagged as top end of neutral will be a key line in the sand. In contrast, the BoE did not hike this week, but left the door wide open to do so – maybe even before the end of 2026. Listen…
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What comes next for European markets?
In this Partner of Choice special episode, we look at how change across European markets is creating new opportunities for resilient growth and how RBC is strengthening its capabilities in response, across our people, products, and technology, to help clients to capture these opportunities....
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Guarded exuberance in EM FX
EM FX has enjoyed a lift from a constructive macro backdrop, with growth resilient and inflation generally under control. We retain a bullish bias (long KRW, MYR, BRL) but caution against being exposed to higher energy prices. We also maintain some hedge trades in our portfolio. Participants…
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Back to school
As summer ends, financial markets face a crucial semester ahead. The next Fed meeting looms large and the path to hikes runs squarely through inflation, with or without, Warsh’s blessing. Until there is sustained progress on price pressures, market expectations will be sticky for pricing hikes....
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Yellow Card for Carry
The summer of soccer is over—and geopolitics and the Fed just took the pitch. Our EM strategists break down why they have locked in gains, where the Brazilian real goes from here, the South African rand's new vulnerability, and why the Korean won is the MVP of July. Abbas Keshvani (Desk…
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Holding pattern
With the ECB keeping rates on hold, and the BOE and Fed expected to do the same, Blake and George explore what's really driving central bank decisions. From energy market pressures in Europe to an unexpectedly hawkish Fed backdrop, discover why holding steady is anything but straightforward in…
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Rate hike fever crosses the Tasman Sea
In this all-Antipodean edition of Macro Minutes, Robert Thompson and Mary Jo Vergara discuss the RBNZ hiking the OCR rates for the first time in three years with more to come, in contrast to the RBA, which is stepping back into the shadows after three quick-fire hikes in February, March, and May....
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Stall speed, holding pattern
The Canadian economy is at stall speed and the BoC is in a holding pattern. There has been no GDP growth and anemic employment gains over the last year – amid the dual forces of a population and trade shock. The consumer has actually been quite resilient in the face of these shocks. While the...
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The summer of soccer
In this month's Emerging Markets edition, Luis Estrada is joined by Abbas Keshvani and Dasha Parkhomenko to analyze recent developments across emerging markets. The discussion covers the changing direction of the US dollar, preferred trades for the current environment, and key risks to their...
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We need to talk about Kevin!
In this special edition of Macro Minutes, Peter Schaffrik is joined by Blake Gwinn to dissect the first FOMC meeting under the new chairman Warsh. Blake shares his views on the task forces set up, the market reaction to the change in the SEP projections and explains why he still does not expect...
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Going for a hike!
Straight after the ECB’s first rate increase in quite a few years, Cathal Kennedy and Peter Schaffrik discuss the ECB’s rate hike, the set of new forecast and the likely path going forward. Peter and Cathal also discuss next week’s BoE meeting and compare and contrast the two central banks’...
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Investment strategy through the ‘up crash’ and beyond
Recorded at the Global Energy, Power, and Infrastructure Conference in New York, this special edition brings a real-time read on where markets stand. Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joined Amy Wu Silverman and Callie Simpkins for an on-the-ground conversation about the US equity...
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Limbo of war
There are good reasons to wait for confirmation of a deal before loading up on risk. But while we wait, we recommend being oil-neutral via RV strategies between energy importers. In a post-war world, we see opportunities to turn bullish on currencies that have been dragged by the war. We also...
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Anarchy in the UK?
Sterling markets have had a rough ride over the last few weeks. In part this is against the backdrop of the oil price shock, but it is also due to the domestic political uncertainty that has once again come to the fore. In this episode, Peter Schaffrik and Cathal Kennedy unpick the difficult...
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Positivity isn’t always naivete
Equity markets keep hitting all-time highs. Rates markets are telling a more cautious story. So which one has it right? In this episode, we examine the complacency narrative through both an equity and rates lens, unpacking whether risk assets are fully pricing the range of Iran conflict outcomes…
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Searching for EM opportunities
Uncertainty on the path of the Iran conflict remains. The second and third order effects for the global economy have yet to be seen, but FX markets are taking an optimistic view on the outcome of the conflict. In this episode, we look at how emerging markets have been responding over the past two...
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To hike, or not, that is the question
Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock. They are lower now but in some countries painting a very different picture than before the war started. Policy responses will not be uniform…
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Private Credit - a public affair?
In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wrote a detailed note about the private credit market and the potential pitfalls. Marc and Peter recap why markets have recently become wary of private...
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Weakest links!
In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia-Pacific and global inflationary pressures. Join us when we explore why commodity exporters like Australia are feeling the pinch, how central banks...
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Stress Testing EMFX for Oil
The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent developments and exploring two primary scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks. The first scenario envisions rapid de-escalation that would allow oil prices to retreat toward $80 per barrel…
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Deja vu
In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories of the 2022 energy shock for Europe. We dissect what is similar and what is different, quantify some impacts on inflation and growth estimates, and...
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A New Circularity
Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circularity, driving credit spreads wider. The New Circularity was initiated by new AI apps hitting software equity valuations and credit spreads…
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SCOTUS ruling EM-positive, risks remain
The US Tariff framework is changing. China is preparing for its National People’s Congress. Latin America is entering a period of political volatility. We give our take on the current EM environment. Participants: Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist Abbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy)…
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Diversify the Buy
Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors have continued to accumulate USD denominated assets, but with a cautious bias (i.e. hedging). To unpack these complexities you will hear insights from...
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Introducing the new European Edition
In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition’ we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the uncertainties, we still see value in the short end of the UK Gilt curve, also versus the EUR market. We also outline that we see the ECB on hold for the...
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Golden opportunity?
There seems to be a confluence of factors that have conspired to be the perfect storm for gold. Prices gains have been parabolic, the recent correction severe, but dip buyers arrived in force to support the market. Is there still a golden opportunity in the shiny metal? Jason Daw (Desk Strategy),...
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Introducing RBC’s EM Pulse
We are introducing our new EM Pulse publication, highlighting our views across Asia, EMEA, and LatAm in 2026. This episode features discussions from our positive view on CNY and China’s outlook to why we think the South African rand’s positive momentum can continue and the role of FX carry in the...
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Beware the cracks!
Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again and have lately filtered into markets more clearly. Global bond yields started rising again, the yield curve steepened from both ends and the USD is on the back foot again. Meanwhile, the JGB market is under pressure and JPY worries are mounting....
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2026 Outlook: Macro, Monetary Policy & Rates
As central banks chart divergent paths into 2026, regional opportunities and risks emerge across markets. Join our rates experts from the US, Canada, Europe, and APAC on a world tour breaking down what policy divergence means for bond yields, inflation risks, relative market performance, and how…
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Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Building success through culture and scale
RBC BlueBay CEO Eric Gerth discusses the asset manager's $700B global growth, industry consolidation drivers, and the strategic importance of scale, culture, and AI investment in shaping the future of financial services.
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Less Support
With the Fed signaling meaningful changes to their policy stance, what will be the cascading effects across US rates, equities, and global FX markets in what promises to be a pivotal period for investors? In this episode, we discuss the interconnected challenges of monetary policy pivots…
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Shutdown
The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There are some known unknowns about how this will impact the economic data but there are also lots of unknown unknowns. In this episode, we will shed...
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Ready, Set, Slow
We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed, and how low terminal rates might go. As the outlook for global central bank policies continues to evolve, particularly the Fed, it could have...
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Gradual Easing or Bold Moves?
In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. From the Bank of England's hawkish cuts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious easing, and the Federal Reserve's balancing act amid market...
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Deficit Defying Spending Plans
In this episode, fiscal loosening has been a feature across many geographies and is getting an increasing amount of attention from financial markets. In this episode, we look at the similarities and differences in fiscal approaches, and how markets are reacting in the US, Euro-area, UK and…
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Continental Drift
In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates. Participants: Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head…
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Pivot Time
US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging...
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Limited Series I Special Edition Episode: Systematic Protection: How QIS Enables Responsive Defensive Overlap Strategies
Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next? Participants: Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA Solenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing...
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Go Your Own Way
Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing…
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Minority Report
The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk...
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A Little Less Tarrified
Today we break down the trade war, the dollar, equities, rates, earnings season, and what it all means for markets—plus a quick dive into Treasury refunding. Participants: Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy Elsa Lignos...
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It's Politics, Stupid.
It is a unique time for economies and financial markets - political decisions are increasingly driving economic outcomes and asset markets rather than the other way around. Today's episode unpacks what it means for US & Canada and the implications for equity markets. Participants: Jason Daw (Desk...
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Chaos Theory
Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and explanation as to what inspired us. Market swings have been very large on the back of the back and forth in the tariffs culminating in a 90 day pause…
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Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Can Europe’s Bank Equities and AT1s comeback be sustained?
A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last? Participants: Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA Anke Reingen (Desk Strategy), Global Co-Head of Financials Research Marc Sanchez...
About this show
Macro Minutes - RBC Capital Markets macro and market strategy series – explores the latest financial market and economic developments. Listen today to hear high conviction insights from RBC’s desk strategists and research analysts.
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