Macro Pulse

Talk of a potential easing in Middle East tensions has steadied markets. But scratch the surface, and the macro picture remains far from settled. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:   • Global manufacturing holding up — despite higher energy prices • Shipping costs rising — supply chains tightening again • Oil production constrained — logistics, not demand, the issue • Policy expectations shifting — tilt back toward tightening risk • US bank lending standards – in neutral for now • Wage pressures still elevated — particularly in the UK   The takeaway? Markets are still standing — but the balance between growth and inflation is becoming increasingly fragile.

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:   Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer” Real-time US recession risks — contained A divergence in consumer confidence (US vs Europe) Tighter credit conditions in the euro area An intensifying semiconductor price boom And AI beginning to reshape labour markets   The takeaway? Markets may be holding up — but the underlying macro is becoming more finely balanced.

Financial markets have remained strikingly calm in recent weeks — despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softening macro narrative, and elevated uncertainty. Volatility is subdued. Financial stress indicators are benign. Equities, for now, are choosing to look through both the conflict and the weaker data. That resilience feels… notable. Because beneath the surface, the macro backdrop is becoming more nuanced — and arguably more fragile. In this week’s charts, we dig into the tension between market calm and macro reality:   • The IMF’s latest global outlook — and what it says about the direction of travel • Financial stress gauges — still quiet, but for how long? • Growth and inflation surprises vs. market volatility — a widening disconnect • Inflation nowcasts — early signals on where prices are heading next • Energy pass-through — the lingering impact of recent shocks • Germany’s ZEW survey — sentiment at the heart of Europe

Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have triggered a relief rally across financial markets—equities higher, yields retracing, volatility easing. But beneath the surface, the macro story is far from settled. In our Charts of the Week, we explore how the shock is beginning to ripple through markets, policy expectations and the real economy:   • Global growth and inflation surprises • Shifting monetary policy expectations • Energy shocks and central bank reaction functions • Real yields vs inflation expectations • Diverging electricity prices • Structural differences in energy capacity

Markets may be taking some comfort from tentative de-escalation signals in the Middle East, but the economic aftershocks are still working their way through—via energy prices, supply chains and heightened geopolitical risk. This week’s charts focus on:   • The global business cycle — momentum vs resilience • Elevated (and increasingly structural) uncertainty • Renewed supply chain stress • A more complex and uncertain policy backdrop • Questions around monetary policy credibility • Oil prices vs still-anchored inflation expectations   A global economy that’s still running—but more fragile, more supply-driven, and harder to manage.

The sharp escalation in Middle East tensions is already reverberating through global markets — pushing energy prices higher, exposing the world economy’s deep reliance on fossil fuels, and prompting a rethink of how far and how fast central banks can ease.   In this week’s charts, we unpack the macro implications through:   Geopolitical risk dynamics The global energy mix Energy use and real oil prices Short-end bond yield repricing European sentiment China’s investment pulse   Still early days — but the direction of travel is becoming clearer.

Financial markets have clearly rattled by the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the past few days, with oil prices see-sawing, risk assets wobbling and investors reassessing the potential macroeconomic fallout from a potential energy shock. Yet, while it is still very early days, this week’s charts suggest that the global economic outlook has so far remained relatively resilient.

In this week’s Charts of the Week, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, from the flare up of geopolitical instability in the Middle East. These include: Movements in geopolitical risk Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz Energy prices Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures Inflation surprises and oil The structure of global electricity generation

Over the past few days, financial markets have been navigating a fresh wave of policy and geopolitical cross-currents, with the US Supreme Court ruling on executive tariff authority adding a new layer of uncertainty to the trade outlook. At the same time, the AI investment boom continues to provide an important cyclical tailwind, even as investors remain alert to valuation risks. In our charts this week we focus on: The Global Business Cycle South Korea’s semiconductor trade US investment in AI infrastructure Germany’s capital spending renaissance Oil prices and monetary policy Japan’s economy and JGB yields  

Recent weeks have seen renewed market swings — a softer US dollar, rotation within equities and shifting rate expectations — as investors reassess valuations, policy risks and the durability of US exceptionalism. Yet a consistent macro thread runs through our charts this week. This week’s themes include: The US risk premium Bank lending growth Producing AI versus Using AI Asia’s industrial production and AI US orders of high tech products Emerging market portfolio flows

This week, Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist and Head of ADP Research, joins Andy Cates on  to recap their recent webinar covering the ADP National Employment Report as well as the recently launched NER pulse. Listen to their conversation as we examine the power of ADP Payroll Data. 

Financial markets have seen renewed gyrations in recent weeks, with a weaker US dollar, higher interest rate volatility and shifting capital flows reviving discussion of a “Sell America” narrative — so far more a marginal rebalancing than a wholesale retreat. In our charts this week we focus on:   Global growth conditions The US dollar Consumer confidence in the US and Europe Financial markets and data surprises The US economy and AI Taiwan’s economy and AI

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on: The Blue Chip growth consensus Central bank policy rate expectations UK data surprises and the BoE The impact of Artificial Intelligence US business formation and productvity growth China's export growth

Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow. More recently, however, geopolitical developments have injected a note of caution, even as the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. In our charts this week we focus on: Global growth conditions Supply chain pressures and inflation Interest rate expectations Venezuela and oil China's excess capacity Public sector intebtedness

In this week’s charts, we highlight a cluster of upside risks that may be underappreciated in current economic forecasts. These include: A faster-than-expected pace of policy easing in advanced economies  A further sharp decline in oil prices A positive AI-driven surprise from US productivity  Unexpected resilience from the US economy India's growth momentum firms again The Global South exhibits much greater domestic autonomy   This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2026. The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January.

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy heads into 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equities remain near cycle highs, volatility is low, and growth forecasts have been edging up. Against this constructive backdrop, our charts this week focus on some of the key downside risks that concern: The global growth consensus Central bank policy calibration Financial market stability AI expectation versus reality  Global trade disruption Geopolitical risks 

Global financial markets have been navigating a more unsettled backdrop in recent weeks, with choppier risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations reshaping the macro narrative. US assets have been particularly sensitive to signs of cooling labour-market momentum, while rising real yields in Japan and renewed fiscal tightening in the UK have added further cross-currents. In our charts this week we home in on:   The global policy rate consensus The US labour market Euro area inflation  Real rates in Japan UK government debt  South Korea's semiconductor trade

In this podcast, Arun Singh, Dun & Bradstreet's Global Chief Economist, joins Andy Cates from Haver Analytics, to explore D&B’s Global Business Insights Survey — a powerful decision-making lens for leaders who want to act early, think clearly, and navigate uncertainty with confidence.

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy feels caught between relief and unease. Inflation has eased but not fully retreated, monetary-policy cycles are pulling in different directions, markets are oscillating between AI-driven enthusiasm and valuation nerves, and geopolitical tensions are pressing harder on trade, energy and investment flows.    Against this backdrop, we discuss twelve themes that set out the forces most likely to shape the macro, market and policy landscape in 2026. They range from the pivotal questions around whether AI will deliver visible productivity gains, how far the AI narrative can continue to support markets, and how policymakers will manage an unusually uncertain interest-rate outlook, to the broader pressures created by fiscal strains, climate stress, shifting trade patterns, geopolitical fragmentation, political transitions, and demographic change.

The global economic story of 2025 has been one of resilience amid disruption. Despite a succession of shocks — from US trade policies and elevated geopolitical risks— the world economy has held up better than many feared. In our charts this week we review: Global data surprises and market volatility Monetary policy calibration and inflation The stance of fiscal policy AI investment and productivity growth US/China trade flows Uncertainty and geopolitical risk

Global equity markets are once again flirting with record highs, buoyed by renewed optimism that the global economy can achieve a soft landing—and by persistent enthusiasm over the potential productivity gains from AI-related investment. In our charts this week we focus on: The Fed and interest rate expectations The global business cycle Consumer confidence in the US and Europe Euro area credit conditions UK manufacturing Shipping costs and traded goods prices

Financial markets have been pulled between opposing forces in recent days. Risk sentiment has been hit by concerns over US lenders, credit conditions, tariffs, the government shutdown, and a potential AI-driven valuation bubble (chart 1). Offsetting this, easing growth and inflation have strengthened expectations of further central bank rate cuts, lifting soft-landing hopes. In our charts this week we drill into:   US equity market valuations Non-US equity markets and data surprises Oil prices and monetary policy China's credit growth US wage pressures UK inflation

Global financial markets are entering mid-October with a cautiously optimistic tone, supported by a mix of better macro data and easing geopolitical risk. In our charts this week we drill into:   The global growth consensus US investment in data centres Views on AI and productivity Geopolitical risks and oil prices China's trade patterns The UK labour market 

Financial markets have been navigating a US government shutdown that has frozen key data releases and muddied the macro picture. In the meantime, political cross-currents in Europe and Asia have added to the noise. In our charts this week we drill into: The US labour market Global productivity trends Electricity prices Natural capital versus produced capital Japan's politics Vietnam's economy 

Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease. At the same time, investors are watching the fallout from the US government shutdown, which is likely to suspend or delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. In our charts this week we focus on: Policy rate expectations Growth and inflation surprises US business formation US productivity trends and AI Semiconductor trade Defence spending 

Global financial markets have remained steady over the past few days: equity volatility remains low, credit spreads remain contained and core yields have drifted rather than lurched, even as policy noise—especially around US trade—remains high. In our charts this week we focus on: Global growth momentum European bond markets South Korean trade Global labour market activity UK financial balances Equity markets and uncertainty   

Global equity markets have remained near record highs over the past few days following the Fed’s 25bp cut on Wednesday, and which investors have arguably seen as a key prop even without a full dovish pivot. Clearly AI optimism is also doing some heavy lifting. In our charts this week we drill into: Equity markets and consumer confidence Inflation expectations and oil prices Forecasts for US profitability The Fed and Asia's policy rates Global food prices UK inflation 

Financial markets have spent the week recalibrating after last Friday’s much weaker-than-expected US payrolls data: government bond yields have declined sharply, while equity markets have remained perky off hopes of a gentler policy path and still-resilient earnings. Even so, the medium-term growth lens has arguably continue to dim. In our charts this week we focus on: The Blue Chip growth consensus US payroll revisions Healthcare employment China's trade with the US and Asia Private sector indebtedness Global supply chain pressures

Equity markets have lost a little ground in recent days and bond markets have been more jittery, as legal challenges to US tariff policies add to a tense backdrop of geopolitical meetings between China, Russia, and India. In our charts this week we focus on: Gold prices and trade policy uncertainty US Tariffs India's economy and markets Global monetary policy Euro area inflation The US profit cycle

Haver Analytics sits down with Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist at The Conference Board of Canada, and Cory Renner, who leads the Board’s forecasting team. Together, they discuss how Canada’s economic outlook is shaped by detailed provincial and metropolitan data, why quarterly accounts matter, and how large-scale models and real-time insights help forecast growth, investment, and labor market trends. Listeners will get an inside look at how The Conference Board builds trusted forecasts and what this means for understanding Canada’s evolving economy.

Recent financial market gains have been underpinned by resilient global data, AI-fuelled optimism, and hopes that most central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy. Yet beneath the surface, a more complicated picture may be emerging. In our chart this week we home in on: US housing indicators China's economy UK inflation Oil and inflation expectations Clean energy Renewables versus non-renewables  

Global financial markets head into late summer buoyed by resilient risk appetite, underpinned by hopes that AI will boost productivity and growth alongside expectations for further central bank policy easing. Yet this optimism has not been fully mirrored in the macro outlook. In our charts this week we focus on: Markets and data surprises The US investment consensus The global growth consensus US inflation drivers The UK labour market Energy prices and monetary policy 

Following last week's softer-than-expected US labour market report bond yields have fallen sharply as investors repriced the outlook for Fed easing. This recalibration arguably also reflects growing awareness of mounting downside risks across the US and broader global economy. In our charts this week we focus on: Capacity pressures in the US and Europe US housing market weakness US bank lending standards Global growth momentum Shipping costs and supply chain pressures Excess capacity in China 

Financial markets have remained generally buoyant in recent days, with global equity indices advancing on the back of relatively upbeat global growth data, benign European inflation readings and the prospect of further policy easing from major central banks. In our charts this week we focus on: The global policy rate consensus The dollar and data surprises Stagflation risks US port congestion Global warming Productivity losses from heat stress

Financial markets have been on a geopolitical rollercoaster in recent days. The Iran–Israel flare-up briefly sent oil prices surging and risk assets tumbling, but tensions have since eased and market conditions have stabilised. That calm has refocused attention on underlying fundamentals—and the signals are mixed. In our charts this week we focus on: Global business cycle indicators South Korea's trade Consumer confidence in the US and Europe Disinflation progress in advanced economies Gold and Bitcoin prices Global electricity generation  

Financial markets have been jolted over the past week by a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. The sudden intensification of hostilities between Israel and Iran—marked by missile strikes and retaliatory air operations—has reignited fears of a broader regional conflict with global consequences. In our charts this week we focus on: Geopolitical risk Oil prices and global growth Global shipping costs Global oil reserves Living standards and energy prices Natural capital 

Financial markets have experienced considerable gyrations in recent weeks, reflecting substantial shifts in investor expectations and heightened uncertainty, largely driven by ongoing US tariff policies. Against this backdrop, consensus growth forecasts have seen notable downward revisions across most major economies over the past 6 months. In our charts this week we home in on: The Blue Chip growth consensus The Blue Chip inflation consensus Supply chain pressures and PPI inflation US policy rate uncertainty The UK labour market Energy and growth    

Recent weeks have seen a complex recalibration in global financial markets, as investors weigh the implications of renewed US tariff actions against accumulating signs of economic softness and growing confidence in the prospect of central bank easing. In our charts this week we home in on: The global policy rate consensus The US labour market and Fed easing expectations Oil prices and inflation surprises Services inflation in the euro area Global trade conditions China's domestic imbalances 

Financial markets have entered a more unsettled phase, with long-term yields, until very recently, rising notably across the US, Europe, and Japan. While inflation persistence and increased government borrowing have played a role, the moves also reflect broader concerns about global policy credibility and capital market dynamics. In our charts this week we focus on: The US dollar and Treasuries Savings and investment imbalances Central banks' QE policies US productivity growth Productivity growth in other advanced economies Electricity prices 

Despite escalating global economic uncertainty—driven in large part by US tariff policies—equity markets have, until recently, continued to surge, seemingly shrugging off risks that would typically provoke caution. This disconnect has grown more conspicuous in the wake of last week’s downgrade by Moody’s of the US sovereign debt outlook, which underscored mounting concerns over fiscal sustainability. In our charts this week we focus on: Markets and uncertainty Growth surprises and stocks Regional growth surprises US financial conditions Japan's portfolio flows Asia's energy demand 

Financial market sentiment has improved notably in recent days, buoyed by an unexpected pause in the US-China tariff war and the May 12 announcement of significantly reduced bilateral tariff rates. This détente has eased investor fears of a deepening global trade shock and sparked a rebound in risk appetite. Our charts this week focus on: US shipping activity The Blue Chip Growth Consensus The Blue Chip Inflation Consensus Global imbalances US bank lending standards Oil prices and inflation expectations

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. In our charts this week we focus on: China-US shipping activity US and Euro area GDP growth Yield differentials and the US dollar Structural growth drivers and the dollar Competitiveness gauges in the US, Europe, Japan and China Monthly wage costs in selected economies

Financial market volatility has remained elevated over the past several days as investors attempted to weigh a modest improvement in sentiment—driven by a potential, if partial, retreat by the US administration from its aggressive tariff stance—against a still-cloudy global outlook. In our charts this week we focus on: Global growth signals US capex intentions South Korea's trade Gold prices The US dollar and market volatility Global rebalancing

US policy decisions have continued to generate volatility in financial markets, reflecting mounting investor unease about the global economic outlook. Consensus forecasts for growth in 2025 have certainly been revised down significantly, while inflation expectations—particularly in the US—have moved higher. In our charts this week we focus on: Consensus growth forecasts Consensus inflation forecasts Financial market volatility US business sentiment Global shipping costs China's real estate sector   

The global economy received a brief reprieve on April 9th, as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs. However, intensifying US-China trade tensions continue to cast a long shadow over the economic outlook. In our charts this week we focus on: China and US trade tariffs US investment in intangibles US trade deficits and relative demand High-tech trade and US capacity Uncertainty and financial markets The global business cycle 

The return of protectionist trade policies under the new US administration has added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global landscape. This was dramatically amplified on April 2nd, when the administration announced a sweeping package of tariffs on a broad range of imports from key trading partners—including the EU, China, and several emerging markets. These measures were more expansive in both scope and scale than markets had anticipated, and they carry the potential for significant global economic disruption—particularly if targeted trading partners respond with retaliatory countermeasures, escalating the risk of a full-scale trade conflict. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       US trade policy uncertainty ·       US data surprises and stagflation risks ·       The policy rate consensus ·       Europe’s labour market ·       China’s economy ·       Global trade fragility

Financial markets remain gripped by heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, slowing US growth, and broader fears of global economic instability. In our charts this week we home in on: ·       Manufacturers’ input prices ·       Supply chain pressures and UK inflation ·       The dollar and US growth ·       Electricity prices in selected major economies ·       Living standards (and energy prices) ·       China’s exports and competitiveness

US equity markets have underperformed relative to global peers in recent weeks, as investor sentiment has deteriorated in response to weaker-than-expected growth data and growing concerns about the Trump administration’s economic policies. The administration’s renewed push for tariffs, alongside fiscal expansion and tighter immigration policies, has fuelled stagflation fears, compounding the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps. In our charts this week we focus on: ·         US equity markets and data surprises ·         US capital flows versus the dollar ·         National savings rates ·         Ageing populations and deindustrialisation ·         Wage inflation in the US and Europe ·         China’s property market  

Download the free charts and commentary here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/ The recent financial market volatility, marked by sharp swings in global bond yields and equity market repricing, reflects growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the US economy amid a rapidly shifting policy environment. The US administration’s latest tariff measures, and their conflicting objectives, have amplified uncertainty, stifled risk appetite and ignited global growth concerns. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       Fading US growth momentum ·       Consensus inflation forecasts ·       Global bond market gyrations ·       Foreign ownership of US assets ·       Industrialisation versus de-industrialisation ·       Global competitiveness  

View the charts here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/ Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility in recent days, with investor sentiment rattled by rising US recession risks, escalating global trade tensions, and mounting geopolitical uncertainties. Sharp decline in US stocks, lower yields coupled with weaker confidence data reflect growing concerns that recent trade and economic policies from the US administration are sapping economic growth and increasing financial instability. In our charts this week we focus on: US recession risks FDI and Goodwill China’s growth target South Korea’s economy The ECB and inflation Energy and growth