Market Signals by LPL Financial

In this special edition of market signals, LPL strategists share highlights from LPL Research’s Midyear Outlook 2026 publication released on July 7. They share key themes for stocks, bonds, and the economy that LPL Research believes will be determining factors of second half returns. For stocks, progress toward monetization of artificial intelligence (AI) will be a key factor in the second half. LPL Research expects gains for stocks on the back of strong earnings growth and, if the macro backdrop improves, a slight increase in valuations. AI disappointments, geopolitics, and midterm elections are among the primary risks. For bonds, LPL Research expects sticky inflation and resilient growth to keep the Federal Reserve on extended pause, leaving Treasury yields range-bound, with the 10-year likely finishing the year between 4.00% and 4.50% absent disinflation or clear economic weakening. Tight credit spreads likely to persist, though AI-driven borrowing by hyperscalers may pressure spreads modestly higher. Returns may be income-driven as Treasury yields stay rangebound and credit spreads remain tight. Finally, U.S. economic growth should moderate but remain positive in the second half, with strong business investment helping offset weakness in other sectors. Elevated household net worth will continue to provide an important buffer for consumers. Expect inflation to moderate toward 2.9% by the end of 2026 and for unemployment to edge higher but remain historically low. Tracking: #1135966

Will Thompson, Founder and Managing Partner of Massif Capital, joins the LPL Market Signals podcast to discuss the evolving dynamics across the broader commodities landscape. He shares his perspective on investing within the real asset universe, emphasizing how rising resource nationalism is reshaping the macro backdrop as governments take a more active role in securing and controlling critical resources. The conversation also explores recent developments in energy markets, including the essential role insurers play in facilitating oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the outlook for global oil supply and demand following the recent U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Tracking: #1130705

In this edition, Dr. Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial’s Chief Economist explains why China is a factor behind volatility in oil prices and highlights the ongoing strength of the dollar and business capital spending. Tracking: #1130403

In this week’s LPL Market Signals, Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum and Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach break down the first Federal Reserve meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, highlighting a more hawkish-than-expected stance, streamlined communication, and the introduction of new task forces focused on inflation, data, and AI. The discussion also reflects on the legacy of Alan Greenspan following his passing, noting his lasting influence on Fed policy and communication. The episode concludes with updated economic projections, including elevated inflation expectations, potential fourth-quarter disinflation, and key risks tied to geopolitics, growth, and labor markets. Tracking: #1129177

Markets are sending mixed signals — headline indexes tell one story, but beneath the surface, powerful factor shifts are driving the action. In this week’s Market Signals, Kristian Kerr sits down with Tom Shipp to unpack the momentum unwind, hidden rotations, and what it all means for investors right now. Don’t miss this deep dive into the hidden forces shaping today’s equity market. Tracking: #1120570

In this episode of LPL Market Signals, we sit down with PGIM to break down the state of the economy and corporate credit markets amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting Fed expectations. We explore resilient earnings, improving credit quality, and the tension between tight spreads and attractive yields. The conversation also dives into duration positioning, heavy issuance in AI and tech, private credit risks, and what lies ahead for corporate bond investors in the second half of 2026. Tracking: #1116029

Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, joins the LPL Market Signals podcast this week to share her disciplined, technically driven approach to navigating today’s markets. In the conversation, Katie breaks down her framework for analyzing price trends, momentum, and market breadth, offering listeners a clear view into how she uses technical analysis to identify shifting conditions, emerging opportunities, and manage risk. She walks through how her process helps filter out noise and focus on actionable signals, particularly in an environment where crosscurrents are driving heightened uncertainty. Katie highlights key areas of relative strength across sectors, while also pointing to pockets of vulnerability that investors should be mindful of. The discussion also highlights some non-consensus opportunities, including in health care, where she explains how select industries within the sector are beginning to show improving technical profiles, despite broader skepticism. Tracking: #1114827

A sharp global bond selloff is unfolding, with long-end yields surging across the U.S., U.K., and Japan as markets reprice inflation risks, policy, and supply dynamics. In this episode, we break down the global forces driving the move, from central banks falling behind the curve to rising term premia and geopolitics. We also explore the implications for equities, credit, and portfolio positioning, and what levels could bring buyers back into the bond market. Tracking: #1111755

LPL’s Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach analyzes supply shocks as a result of the Iran conflict, potential Fed actions, and the roles artificial intelligence could soon be playing in the wider economy. Economic Navigator: https://www.lpl.com/content/dam/edam/research/publications/economic-navigator/economic-navigator-05-13-26.pdf Tracking: #1109373

In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist, and Thomas Shipp, Head of Equity Research, discuss the technology sector and the AI buildout. They tackle the following AI topics, including where we are in the capital cycle, how to think about capital intensity when valuing technology stocks, whether to favor the “picks and shovels” building AI or the adopters, and what the risks are associated with concentration of the AI ecosystem. Tracking: #1105269

On this week’s Market Signals, Kristian Kerr, Head of Macro Strategy, sits down with Andrew Deck, Head of Alternative Investments at LPL Financial, to unpack what’s really happening in private credit. Drawing on decades of institutional experience, Andrew explains why current concerns are mostly overblown, where real risks and opportunities lie, and why manager discipline matters more than headlines. The conversation also explores liquidity, dispersion, and how advisors should think about alternatives in portfolios going forward. Tracking: #1101416

In this edition of LPL Market Signals, Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist and Adam Turquist, Chief Technical Strategist dig into a busy week for Central Banks with the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) all set to meet this week. Tracking: #1097807

Econ Market Minute by

LPL Research recaps last week’s market action, previews this week’s Fed policy meeting, and discusses why European stocks look less attractive. Tracking: # 480068

In the latest LPL Market Signals podcast, the LPL Research strategists recap another relatively subdued week for stocks, discuss what the Fed’s presumed pause in its rate hiking campaign might mean for bonds, and provide some numbers that put a solid first-quarter earnings season in perspective.Tracking# 1-05370462

LPL Research looks at upcoming Fed policy, cooling economic conditions, and what investors may want to consider about high interest rates.Tracking #1-05343711

LPL Research discusses the latest surge in yields and if a recession could be on the horizon.Tracking #: # 1-05271551

LPL Research discusses the latest surge in yields and if a recession could be on the horizon.Tracking #: # 1-05271551

LPL Research discusses why inflation could be very close to a major peak and looks at what could be a challenging earnings season.Tracking #: # 1-05269155