NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 7th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US back from their 4th July long weekend there’s been renewed interest in buying tech stocks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss this and more. Including OPEC+ upping oil production – isn’t it a little academic as supplies out of the Gulf are still restrained. The US services ISM showed us how, despite inflation, the US economy is still strong. Inflation is more of a concern for Japan, with wages data and household spending today adding to the picture. And Donald Trump is off to the NATO summit. Does he have his sights set on a resolution for the Ukraine crisis? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 6th July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBrent crude is holding on in the low seventies, despite all the uncertainty around Iran. This isn’t where most commentators expected it would land according to NAB’s Ray Attrill. Phil asks what this means for inflation expectations and how much of this was factored into NAB;’s latest FX forecasts released on Friday. Meanwhile, a quiet session on Friday with the US on holiday, but the Rating Dog Services PMI showed a surprisingly strong result, and the US Services ISM out tonight. This week is also pretty quiet, with the RBNZ rate decision the main event. Central bankers will step up to fill the void, with quite a few speaking opportunities in the week ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd July 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.The government’s newly minted capital gains tax (CGT) rules threaten to hold back productive investment. That’s the view of veteran fund manager Geoff Wilson, founder of Wilson Asset Management, who says the changes for equities and businesses will ultimately restrict job creation and limit wealth generation for younger Australians. While Geoff has no problem with shifting tax incentives away from established property, he warns that clipping the wings of risk-taking investors will stall the country's broader productivity. Are the government's minimum tax requirements fundamentally flawed, or are they a necessary step to level the playing field? Also, how deeply is social media shifting retail investment decisions, and have global AI valuations run dangerously ahead of reality? Tune in to hear one of Australia's most outspoken market experts deliver his unvarnished take on where local wealth is headed. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 3rd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe non-farm payrolls from the US overnight came in softer than expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril strong enough for the Fed to dismiss concerns about the labour market and focus more of inflation. Phil asks him about the impact of this on bond markets, whilst equities have been hit by more AI concerns. With Anthropic reportedly teaming up with Samsung to develop their own bespoke chips it increasingly hard to know how to pick the winners. They also discuss the rise in the Yen. If Japanese authorities are looking at currency intervention could the thinner trading of a US holiday be the time to do that? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 2nd July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt’s been a quiet day on the markets. So, for a change, an edition of The Morning Call that doesn’t mention the words Iran or Gulf. Instead, the focus has been on that last panel session at the ECB Forum in Sintra. Kevin Warsh didn’t give anything away on monetary policy, except to reiterate that from now on they won’t be giving anything away on monetary policy, but he did give his thoughts on the progress of inflation. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to walk through that meeting, the weaker than expected inflation numbers for Europe, the slide in the US manufacturing ISM and a preview of tonight’s non-farm payrolls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 1st July 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe Yen fell further again overnight, hitting another 40-year low, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s no indication of when and if there will be any further currency intervention. US equities push higher and oil falls lower as Iran news falls off the front pages and investors focus more on the fundamentals. The RBA minutes yesterday reiterated that conditions were ‘now probably somewhat restrictive’, but was that enough to change expectations for a cut? Meanwhile house price data out this morning shows a drop in house prices for Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra. Plus, the latest European inflation data, China’s PMIs, confidence and jobs data from the US, with US manufacturing ISM out today. The main event could be that Sintra closing panel, with Kevin Warsh joining Lagarde, Bailey and Macklem, but given his opposition to forward guidance what can he talk about? The weather? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAs NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses with Phil, five cities are the focus for markets right now. In Doha, there are high hopes that high-level peace talks are resuming to stabilize maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. In Tokyo, markets are on the look out for a currency intervention after the Japanese yen languished to a staggering 40-year low past 161.96 against the greenback. In Sintra, the global monetary elite are gathering for the ECB forum, where AI risk is very much the agenda. In Washington a landmark 5-4 U.S. Supreme Court ruling fiercely defends central bank independence by blocking the White House from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Finally, in Moscow, Vladimir Putin has publicly admitted that targeted Ukrainian infrastructure strikes are severely impacting Russian life as local fuel supplies run short. Your whistle stop tour starts now! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNobody can accuse markets of being overly cynical about peace negotiations, says NAB’s Ken Crompton on this morning’s podcast. Oil fell on Friday despite skirmishes between Iran and Iran as Tehran seeks to reassert its control over the Strait. Most data on Friday were second tier stuff, with the surprise in the size of the US goods trade deficit the most surprising. Fed speakers over the weekend were sounding hawkish, and there will be a lot of interest in what Kevin Warsh says in Sintra this week. Yes, as Phil describes it, it’s the glitz and the glamour of the ECB Central Bankers Forum in Portugal, which is likely to provide a drip feed of news this week, alongside US jobs data, culminating in non-farm payrolls on Thursday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Is artificial intelligence on track to save mankind, or is the relentless hype hiding a massive financial crash and an ultimate existential threat? This weekend Phil tackles these profound questions with BCA Research's Chief Global Investment Strategist, Peter Berezin, following his controversial paper, “Boom Before Doom: The Terrifying Reason to Be Bullish on AI”. Drawing sharp parallels to the 2000 dotcom bust, Peter challenges the "winner-take-all" assumptions fueling today’s record data centre investments. He warns that computing power is rapidly becoming a commoditised, low-margin utility akin to historical railroads, canals, and airlines—destined to lose investors billions even as it reshapes society. But if the financial structural risks aren't enough, the episode pivots to a chilling medium-term outlook: if first-mover tech giants fail to generate sustainable profits, what happens if they intentionally give AI models full autonomy over real-world infrastructure and corporate operations simply to slash human labour costs? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 26th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCrude oil prices are marching back up after a Singaporean tanker was fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the market response to that and to the sharp move up in Micron stock after the chip maker provided stellar forward guidance. Meanwhile, core U.S. PCE inflation printed exactly as expected at 0.3% monthly, nudging the annual rate up to 3.4% and cementing a restrictive Fed baseline. Closer to home, they look at the Australian employment print for May, after a noisy April print, Ray says it confirms a resilient yet gradually cooling local labour market that aligns cleanly with NAB’s expectations that the RBA will continue their current holding pattern for the rest of the year. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 25th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are tumbling, with Brent crude hitting a fresh low near $73 a barrel,, taking significant pressure off global inflation hedges and pushing 10 year Treasury yields down 9 basis points. Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld look at how this commodity slide is reshaping central bank expectations, highlighted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Squawk Box interview where he likened the current tech-driven productivity wave to Alan Greenspan’s 1997 "one tap on the brakes" template, suggesting the Fed may only need one more rate hike, together with his dislike of the Fed's dot plot altogether. Closer to home, attention wraps firmly around yesterday’s Australian CPI print, which cooled on the headline thanks to falling pump prices; however, Sally flags that a peek under the hood reveals a stickier story, with trimmed-mean inflation tracking at 3.6% as local homebuilders and restaurants pass mounting material and input costs on to consumers. Aussie employment data will be watched keenly to see whether last month’s rise in the unemployment rate was a one-off, but isn’t expected to change the RBA’s outlook for interest rates. On that, ‘they’re done’ says Sally. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 24th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere have been big global move down in equities yesterday and that continued overnight. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this risk-off mood. There’s no clear trigger except shares rose quickly last week. The Iran situation certainly wasn’t responsible after another day with more ships leaving the Strait and oil prices continuing to fall. But why has the Aussie dollar taken such a big hit? They also discuss yesterday’s PMIs and look ahead to today’s Australian inflation numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 23rd June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou might expect that as oil prices fall and the potential for economic growth resumes, big tech would be riding the wave. But, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains today, US share indices have been driven down by two falls in two giants – SpaceX is own over 12% and Alphabet lost 6% at one stage, each for very different reasons. Meanwhile the resignation of the UK Prime Minister barely registered on markets. Canadian inflation ticked up a little but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for the Bank of Canada. Today, PMIs for Australia, Japan, the Euro Area, the UK and the US. And a 30 second eulogy for former Fed chair Alan Greenspan, who died yesterday. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWith the US closed for business on Friday what market action there was largely driven by geopolitics. Peace talks in Switzerland start on shaky ground with question marks over whether Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has turned up the rhetoric, but it could just be another chapter from Art of the Deal. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s likely that the risk sentiment from last week could take a backward step today. Also today, its possible Keir Starmer will announce his plans to step aside as the UK performs its own self-induced regime change. A busy week ahead for Australian data include May’s CPI, employment numbers, job vacancies and household spending. Plus, US PCE deflator on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (for now). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Is the Australian property market running out of puff, or are we just seeing the first ripples of a dramatic regulatory shake-up? Phil sits down with Cotality’s head of Australian research, Gerard Burg, to dig into whether the federal government’s newly minted tax overhauls for established dwellings are actively driving investors away. They break down a highly unusual shift in local listings where properties are sitting on the market far longer, signaling a slow rebalancing of supply and demand that actually predates the budget. From the roaring lifestyle market in Hobart to stark upper-quartile property slides in Sydney, this episode uncovers why first-home buyers are getting squeezed the hardest by compounding RBA interest rate hikes. Plus, they explore a looming structural nightmare: why the massive 36% post-pandemic spike in construction costs and the approaching 2032 Brisbane Olympics are set to derail the government’s ambitious target of building 1.2 million homes. Tune in to find out if the golden era of hands-off property speculation is officially behind us, and whether, as a positive, tax changes will finally push Aussie wealth into more productive areas of the economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 19th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABVessels have begun navigating the Strait of Hormuz following the formal signing of the U.S.-Iran MoU, with Brent crude at three-month lows near $80 a barrel. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this is as low as we can expect it to go for now, at least until a more definitive peace emerges. Also, Ray explains why the Aussie dollar is holding its own against a surging U.S. dollar and why the Bank of England hold – and future holds – might have something to do with the "Maradona theory" of monetary policy. They had to get soccer in there somehow. All covered off before the need for a refreshment break. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 18th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA concise and hawkish Federal Reserve decision has shifted global desks. Phil unpacks Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting with NAB’s Gavin Friend. It delivered an unyielding 12-0 vote to hold rates steady alongside a razor-thin official statement that raised inflation forecasts and explicitly prioritised price stability. This refusal to offer traditional forward guidance pushed bond yields higher and sparked choppy swings across the Nasdaq, all while a surprise 0.9% surge in U.S. retail sales proved the American consumer is out shopping. Meanwhile the UK awaits employment data and a high-stakes by-election. Then there’s that MoU with the signing-ceremony a day away. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 17th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA unanimous, universally expected pause by the RBA yesterday, with Michelle Bullock refusing to rule out future interest rate hikes if inflation remains sticky. Taylor Nugent says NAB's view remains firm that the data flow won't give them the final push needed to squeeze out another increase. Inflationary pressures globally could be about to ease as crude oil prices collapse below $80 a barrel as optimism solidifies around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Bank of Japan hoisted its benchmark rate to 1% in an attempt to salvage a battered yen, while over in Washington, the Federal Reserve prepares for Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as chair, where he is widely expected to forego his anticipated dovish approach, faced with the inflationary pressures.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere’s been a sharp market response to the apparent agreed memorandum of understanding, electronically signed by Iran and the US, with a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the market response, with yields falling, equities rising, the Aussie dollar gaining ground and oil prices plummeting. It’s the closest we’ve been to a deal yet, but it doesn’t resolve any of the underlying issues, of course, and ships having started passing through the Strait in any great number just yet. It’s also the start of a flood of central bank meetings, starting with the RBA (likely on hold) and the BoJ (expected to raise rate). Plus a chunk of activity data for China released today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to discuss a week where markets are responding to the shifting realities of a proposed U.S.-Iran peace deal. Deep optimism over a potential memorandum of understanding opening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free pushed Brent crude down to $87.30 a barrel and led to sharp gains across European equities. Looking ahead to a massive week of central bank decisions—including the Fed, Bank of England, and a highly anticipated Bank of Japan hike—the focus turns to the RBA's upcoming statement. Sally expects the board to maintain its steady path while striking a balanced tone; the RBA will likely acknowledge cooling domestic activity via soft housing metrics and dropping capacity utilization rates, yet remain anxious over sticky inflation pipelines, leaving the truly consequential policy and forecast revisions till their August meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Japan finds itself performing a high-stakes economic balancing act as the nation navigates its most aggressive structural pivot in decades. In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie welcomes Tokyo-based independent macro strategist Tetsuo "Harry" Ishihara to unpack how Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration is fiercely driving growth via an interventionist, multi-year fiscal strategy—employing heavy gas subsidies and targeted funding across 17 growth sectors to absorb the massive shock of the Middle East energy crisis. Yet, this state-sponsored growth push directly collides with the Bank of Japan's urgent agenda. With the yen weakening back past the precarious 160-per-dollar mark, the central bank is looking clean through artificial headline numbers to an "ex-institutional" inflation metric that is creeping toward 3%. Can the government maintain its growth-at-all-costs mandate while the BOJ prepares to bite the bullet with a historic interest rate hike to 1% next week to defend the currency and tame import costs? Tune in to discover how Tokyo plans to pull off this delicate macroeconomic manoeuvre without bringing the entire apparatus crashing down. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA major coordinated market reversal took place overnight as Donald Trump posted a dramatic Truth Social message stating that a comprehensive US-Iran peace deal is "just about done," prompting an immediate unwind of trades built on escalating tensions. NAB's Ray Attrill joins Phil to dissect this massive shift, which saw Brent crude plunge back below $90 a barrel, US Treasury yields drop 9 basis points, and the Nasdaq snap back into a roaring 3.5% rally. Yet Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency swiftly downplayed the announcement, stating no text has been formally approved. Beyond the Gulf,: the European Central Bank delivering its first interest rate hike since 2023 to combat broad-based inflation pressures, and today sees the historic debut of the largest initial public offering (IPO) in global history, dwarfing Saudi Aramco with a mind-boggling valuation.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABOil prices are higher again as the US and Iran tit for tat measures pick up a pace, with more rhetoric from the US President. The question global banks are asking, is how are rising oil prices impacting core inflation? The Fed seems is expected to wait, even with headline inflation at 4.2%. The ECB, though, is concerned about the second-round effects of oil price rises and is likely to raise rates tonight. China, meanwhile, reported lower consumer inflation but rising producer prices. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 10th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere hasn't been a strong market reaction to the downing of a US helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, even though Donald Trump has talked retaliation. Instead, markets seem to have focused more on the fact that some oil tankers have successfully made their way through and that Kuwait has been actively selling oil to refineries. Meanwhile NAB has revised its expectations for the RBA and doesn't see any rate hikes this year with the next move likely to be down. NAB’s Ken Crompton takes us through the reasoning, including the latest data from the NAB business survey yesterday and the consumer sentiment read. Today the focus is going to be on US and China inflation numbers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA blowout U.S. non-farm payrolls report has injected definitive hawk-ish certainty into central bank paths, while a hyper-volatile tit-for-tat missile exchange between Israel and Iran leaves the outlook for the Gulf structurally unsettled. Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril work through the geopolitical and data crosscurrents, noting that while global oil prices spiked past $98 a barrel during the weekend combat before settling back to $94, prediction markets continue to aggressively push back the timeline for a lasting regional truce. This unresolved energy shock contrasts sharply with a block of robust North American labour metrics—led by a 172,000 U.S. hiring beat in May and an 88,000 full-time employment surge in Canada—which triggered a massive bear flattening across core treasury yield curves. Wall Street managed a partial recovery from its brutal tech sell-off, yet broader equity configurations show distinct vulnerability as a highly anticipated, multi-billion-dollar SpaceX flotation triggers significant liquidity churn. At home the focus pivots to a critical testing day for local momentum with the simultaneous drop of the NAB Business Survey and the Westpac Consumer Confidence index, which will offer fresh visibility on whether worsening price pressures, margin squeezes, and post-budget sentiment are altering the structural direction of the Australian economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th June 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Phil talks to Tim Jordan, Commissioner at the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC),on how the energy grid is adapting to volatile fossil fuel prices and the massive surge in electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence. While retail energy costs prepare to ease under the upcoming July Default Market Offer (DMO) reductions, the conversation centres on the complex shift toward a renewable-dominated system. Tim breaks down the structural divide between the rule-making AEMC and the pricing regulators, highlighting the critical role that large-scale battery farms, domestic virtual power plants, and time-of-day pricing models must play to move supply out of midday solar peaks. The discussion covers major structural bottlenecks, from the long financial payback periods of household storage to grid connection delays and the unique challenge of providing vehicle-to-grid charging options in a country that is embracing more apartment living. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 5th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABTonight's highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls data follows a week of highly conflicting signals from the American labour market. So, what will today’s data reveal about underlying economic momentum? Also, can the market’s rampant "buy the dip" equity mentality survive a potential rotation out of over-stretched tech stocks? Phil is joined by NAB's Ken Crompton to discuss this and the shifting risk sentiment which saw oil prices retreat on speculative Israel-Lebanon peace headlines. They also discuss RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s Senate testimony, questioning whether a hawkish pause and stickier supply-shock inflation will ultimately force a definitive interest rate hike this August. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 4th June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAn exchange of fire in the Gulf aw a resurgence of risk-off sentiment in global markets, driving Brent crude back toward $98 a barrel and weakening the Australian dollar. The unfolding crisis highlights Warsh’s Dilemma ahead of his first Fed meeting: while much of the world downshifts, the U.S. economy remains strikingly insulated. As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the May U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing survey surged nine points which, alongside strong ADP employment figures and an elevated prices-paid component signals inflation prospects that the Fed can’t ignore. Closer to how GDP growth slowed yesterday, in part because of the trade deficit, but also sluggish household consumption. How that plays out in terms of future rate decisions will no doubt be discussed in Michelle Bullock’s appearance before a senate hearing today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 3rd June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABMore signs of global cooling. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks ahead to today’s Q1 GDP for Australia, with expectations dialled down following a surprising slide into a trade deficit yesterday. It shows how domestic growth was already slowing and tracking below RBA forecasts well before recent energy shocks emerged, although Ray says this, and the 4.75% increase in minimum wage, won’t impact the RBA’s trajectory. But the expectation of a rate rise from the ECB rose along with inflation yesterday. Services inflation is a particular sticking point.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuessday 2nd June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil Dobbie and NAB’s Sally Auld delve into a turbulent market session where geopolitical theatre and conflicting macroeconomic signals pulled global asset classes in opposite directions. Crude oil spiked toward $98 a barrel early in the session before cooling down to just over $95 after a flurry of Truth Social posts from Donald Trump claimed he had negotiated a halt to the fighting in Lebanon, smoothing the path for U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks. While Wall Street pushed to fresh record highs solely on the backs of surging IT and energy stocks—buoyed by a strong U.S. manufacturing ISM accelerating to 54—the domestic focus shifted heavily to a much softer-than-expected Australian housing print. Sally highlights that this property slowdown represents a powerful alignment of compounding RBA rate hikes alongside significant changes to investor tax arrangements. While it remains early days, she notes that the combination of these forces could create a larger housing downturn cycle than initially anticipated. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 1st June 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil Dobbie and NAB’s Taylor Nugent check the pulse of a global market that remains suspended in a cautious holding pattern. Friday’s wave of optimism—which pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh all-time highs and drove Brent crude down near the $90-a-barrel mark—has run into a wall of silence following a highly anticipated White House meeting on a 60-day Gulf ceasefire. With the administration maintaining that the Strait of Hormuz must open unconditionally and toll-free, and hints that the U.S. will remain patient for a "good deal," traders are left wondering if a lack of concrete updates will cause oil prices to drift higher once again. This geopolitical stalemate completely overshadowed a significant batch of central bank commentary and data: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that weak economic growth may prevent energy-driven inflation from feeding into wages, while early European CPI indicators revealed surprising downward price pressures, with headline prices in Germany dropping 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, despite a temporary water fee waiver softening Tokyo's core CPI, Taylor notes that Japan's strong industrial production and tight labour market mean there is still nothing to stand in the way of the Bank of Japan delivering another interest rate hike at its June meeting. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 30th May 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.While the market's attention has been transfixed by oil and gas, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a secondary, far more dangerous shock for Australian food security: a massive fertilizer crisis. Phil sits down with Paddy Rombola, Chairman of Advantage Agriculture, to unpack why Australia's 80% reliance on imported nitrogen-based fertilizers has left our agricultural sector critically exposed to a global supply chain where the Middle East controls nearly a third of all urea exports. With domestic urea prices skyrocketing from A$700 to an eye-watering A$1,900 per tonne in May, local farmers are being forced to cut back crop nutrition rates just as meteorologists warn of an incoming "super El Niño" drought across New South Wales and Queensland. Paddy outlines the immediate risk to consumer supermarket shelves, warning that while precision agronomy can help buy time, a looming fruit and vegetable supply crunch means everyday Australians should brace for significant food price inflation over the next six to nine months. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 29th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the latest reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators have finalized a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin talks on Iran's nuclear program. This crucial step, which would see the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopen toll-free, now reportedly just needs a nod from the US President activate, but its obviously more complicated than that. This glimmer of diplomatic progress pushed Brent crude down below $94 a barrel, completely overshadowing a mixed bag of U.S. economic data. While the annual core PCE deflator held sticky at 3.3%, annualized Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% and corporate profits took a surprise 0.4% squeeze. Despite cooling growth and comments from the Fed's John Williams that policy could go either way, Wall Street brushed off the headwinds, sending the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 28th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA softer-than-expected Australian headline inflation print sent the Aussie dollar sliding half a percent to 71.4 US cents. NAB’s Gavin Friend cautions that while the headline cooling is welcome, the trimmed mean core rate remains stubbornly high, meaning the RBA cannot yet afford to take its foot off the brake. Meanwhile the RBNZ held rates steady yesterday but strongly signalled that it is itching for another imminent interest rate hike. All eyes now look ahead to the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the core PCE deflator—which will influence the broader transatlantic interest rate path. And oil is lower, but will it last? The oil markets want to believe, says Gavin. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 27th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABDespite ongoing optimism around a potential peace deal, the U.S. literally "fired up" tensions by launching missile strikes against targets in southern Iran and mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. That sent Brent Crude prices highr, back over $100, whilst WTI fell. It was a session filled with divisions: U.S. Treasury yields fell 6 basis points and tech stocks rallied, while European yields climbed and its major indices retreated. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its more to do with who’s been on holiday on Monday rather than any significant geographic divide. Today the focus will be on Australia’s CPI and a speech by the RBA’s Carolyn Hewson. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 26th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABPhil is joined by NAB’s Ken Crompton to discuss how global markets are holding onto optimism despite Donald Trump shifting his rhetoric, stating he will only settle for a "great deal or no deal at all" regarding Iran. Despite thin holiday trading with the US and UK closed, equity markets rallied to new records—with Japan's Nikkei jumping 2.9% and the Dax rising 2%—while Brent crude plunged 7% to just over $96 a barrel. Ken explains that while sentiment remains supported by a proposed 60-day ceasefire extension and plans to gradually normalize shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, key hurdles remain; Iran is currently making any final agreement conditional on China taking custody of its nuclear material, all while its central bank governor negotiates in Doha to unfreeze frozen assets. This fragile progress left the Australian dollar as the session's biggest major currency mover, climbing 0.7% to 71.8 US cents as traders await the full return of global desks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 25th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABdiplomatic signals from the U.S. and Iran. While Donald Trump and Marco Rubio teased an imminent breakthrough that briefly sent Bitcoin surging 2%, the administration subsequently walked back the timeline, advising negotiators "not to rush". Ray notes that while both sides have reportedly softened their unrealistic demands—such as Iran dropping shipping toll requirements and the U.S. easing off proxy funding restrictions—the immediate reality points toward a mere 60-day ceasefire extension rather than a comprehensive resolution. Meanwhile, a single Iraqi crude supertanker successfully traversed the closed Strait of Hormuz, but with global inflation pressures mounting, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a tough call on rate paths, keeping the global economy in a state of tentative, risk-sensitive suspense. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 23rd May 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil sits down with NAB’s Gareth Spence and JBWere’s Glen Bertram to unpack the ramifications of the federal budget's aggressive pivot away from established property tax incentives. The panel deconstructs how ditching the 50% capital gains tax discount in favour of a cost-base indexation system, paired with a new 30% minimum tax rate, rewrites the wealth creation playbook for Australian property investors. What impact does limiting negative gearing to new builds have on the pricing and rental yields of established dwellings? Will the changes shift investment away from property – even more money going into super, for example? More importantly, will the impacts be as profound as many are making out? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABNAB’s Ken Crompton discusses the unexpected softening in the Australian labour market, where the unemployment rate climbed to 4.5% alongside a loss of 19,000 jobs. Ken points out that this surprising shift shows firms are pausing hiring plans due to global headwinds and the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. While U.S. markets showed some resilience on the back of tech earnings, Europe faces deep contractionary pressures with manufacturing and services data turning weak. This sudden domestic downturn removes the immediate urgency for the RBA to lift interest rates again, pushing market expectations for the next potential hike out to August. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were strong moves in positive sentiment today as several vessels sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by hopes of some sort of deal with Iran. Brent Crude dropped in price and bond yields fell, particularly in Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend says yields had started to fall on the back of weaker than expected CPI data in the UK. The Fed’s minutes this morning showed more members leaning towards rate rises this year. Australian employment data is out today. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.3%, but it was so close to 4.2% last time that’s a possibility too. And NVIDIA earnings beat expectations, but the forecast wasn’t as bullish as some had hoped. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe worry from just about everywhere is that when there’s a supply shock, companies are quicker to pass on the costs to their customers than they would in ordinary times. The RBA said as much in a paper yesterday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says that’s why NAB now expects another rate rise next month. Others are saying the same thing about inflationary worries, including the BoJ’s Gov Ueda yesterday, but is it concerning enough for him to raise rates? Meanwhile, President Trump’s TACO moment over planned attacks on Iran means the world continues to watch oil reserves dwindle and prices steadily rise. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 19th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABA stark geographic division has opened up in global markets as US and European assets move in entirely opposite directions. Phil talks to NAB's Skye Masters about this pronounced division, noting that while inflation fears have sent US equities tumbling and pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.6% to a one-year high, European shares are rallying and bond yields are falling. This market fracture comes as geopolitical tensions reach a boiling point, with Brent crude pushing past $112 a barrel following reports that Donald Trump is convening his top national security team in the Situation Room to discuss military options against Iran. Meanwhile, a sense of political calm has returned to the UK after Labour leadership contender Andy Burnham ruled out altering Rachel Reeves' fiscal rules, a move that lowered gilt yields and sparked a 0.7% climb for the pound. This transatlantic divide completely overshadowed much softer-than-expected economic activity data out of China, leaving investors to brace for a highly volatile week ahead of the Fed minutes and Nvidia's upcoming earnings. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABJust when markets were hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough, it’s clear the Chinese leader sees it as America’s problem. Donald Trump’s blunt dismissal of the latest Iranian proposal has sent global markets into a dramatic tailspin. Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld about Friday's sharp risk-off move, which saw equities tumble and Brent crude surge toward $110 a barrel as the Polymarket odds of the Strait of Hormuz reopening this month collapsed to a measly 5%. While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tries to calm nerves by calling the bond sell-off a temporary inflation blip, 10-year Treasury yields have added 11 basis points, and the UK remains in its own self-induced political fix as Andy Burnham’s leadership gamble pushes gilt yields up by a striking 18 basis points. This escalating geopolitical storm completely overshadowed surprisingly resilient U.S. industrial production data, leaving G7 finance ministers meeting in Paris today with a messy combination of a soaring U.S. dollar, collapsing consumer certainty, and the looming reality of a hawkish central bank response. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th May 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks to former Etihad CEO James Hogan, now Chairman at consulting firm Knighthood Global Limited. They explore the aviation industry’s resilient response to the Middle East conflict and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade. James highlights how major carriers are successfully pivoting their business models by leaning into consolidation and prioritising high-yield long-haul routes to offset the rise in airline fuel. He outlines a clear path for the sector to capitalise on "sovereign resilience" and operational agility to maintain global connectivity. The discussion underscores a positive long-term outlook, where the industry’s ability to re-centre its networks around more stable hubs ensures that global travel remains viable and robust, even as it adapts to a new era of higher energy costs. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABChina has tried to establish the upper hand at the Beijing Summit by warning of the Thucydides Trap – a phenomenon where a rising dominant power challenges the old guard, It invariably ends in war. It was a bold way to kick off a summit, where Iran seems to have had less focus than Taiwan. Meanwhile, US equities continue to ride high on AI adrenalin, helped by stronger than expected retail sales. UK GDP also came in better than expected, but the impact negated by politicians jockeying for the overthrowal of the Prime Minister. And NAB’s customer data showed a dip in spending in April. Today, the end of the summit and maybe we’ll hear more from the President once he’s back on home turf. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 14th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIs Donald Trump readying himself for a deal that will see him forego arms sales to Taiwan in exchange for China helping end the confict with Iran? It’s one interpretation of what might come from the summit in Beijing, but NAB’s Ray Attrill is doubtful anything too comnstructive will emerge from the talks. Still, oil prices have fallen a little and equities in the US have risen to new highs, despite an EIA report warning of rapidly depleting oil reserves. Meanwhile Kevin Warsh has been approved by the Senate as the next Fed chair, but he’ll find it hard to cut rates, with the latest PPI numbers rising sharply and bond yields rising. Today US retail sales is the main data release, although Ray explains to Phil why it might be difficult to decipher anything useful from it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 13th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWhether it is Chalmers' budget, Starmer’s fight for survival, or the eerie calm of a stalled Gulf ceasefire, the global economic landscape is shifting in ways that are anything but peaceful. Jim Chalmers' first major federal budget has delivered a blow to property perks by ending negative gearing for existing builds, even as an extra $18 billion in government spending threatens to complicate the RBA's fight against inflation. Phil talks to NAB's Gavin Friend about this domestic shake-up, including a spike in purchase costs in the latest NAB Business Survey and Australian consumer confidence plunging to COVID-era lows. Alongside all this a hot U.S. CPI print of 3.8% that has sent equities lower and yields higher. In the UK, Keir Starmer’s leadership crisis has pushed 10-year gilt yields higher still, while in the Middle East, the "nothing happening" news is actually the worst news of all: satellite imagery confirms Iranian exports from Kharg Island have completely stopped. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 12th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIn this episode of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie and Rodrigo Catril break down the market's reaction to President Trump’s blunt dismissal of Iran’s latest proposal as a "piece of garbage," a move that has dashed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and kept the Strait of Hormuz under lock and key. As Brent crude pushes higher toward $115 a barrel, Rodrigo highlights a stark divergence in sentiment: while U.S. equities find resilience by "looking through" the disruption fueled by big tech earnings, bond markets are seeing yields rise as the geopolitical uncertainty takes hold. In the UK, yields have been hit even harder by a potential leadership challenge for the Prime Minister, while in China, consumer inflation kicked higher alongside a markedly sharp leap in producer prices. Domestically, the pair look ahead to a massive day for the local economy with NAB’s Business Survey, consumer confidence, and the federal budget taking centre stage, all while the global market braces for the latest U.S. CPI data. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 11th May 2026NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABCould we be on the verge of positive steps from the Gulf? Iran has responded to the US proposal and, as Phil points out, its not an outright rejection. This is also the week that President Trump meets President Xi, a discussion that could be critical to any solution in the Gulf. Meanwhile, US markets were buoyed by non-farm payrolls. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the surprisingly strong results, even though the polar opposite was happening north of the border in Canada. It’s a busy week domestically with the NAB Business Survey tomorrow, and the wage price index and a the Federal Budget. Plenty to keep us all busy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 8th May 2026Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.This week Phil explores the massive shift of Australian retirement savings toward Europe as the domestic superannuation system prepares to surge to a staggering $8.3 trillion by 2035. Joined by David Whiteley of IFM Investors and Nicola Jolley, CEO of NAB Europe, the discussion reveals why France has emerged as a premier hub for "patient capital," offering high-value opportunities in Public-Private Partnerships and strategic sectors like low-carbon district heating, waste-to-energy, and digital infrastructure. With so much money flowing into Australian super funds every week, the race is on to secure long-term, resilient returns in the European market. Tune in to discover how Australian workers are becoming some of the world's most influential investors in the global infrastructure of the future. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.