Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal and ordered an extension of the blockade on Iranian ports, while Israel resumed military operations in Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. sanctioned a Chinese importer of Iranian oil, threatening more sanctions against China’s banking sector, while Beijing blocked Meta’s acquisition of a Chinese AI company. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a Victory Day ceasefire on May 9, while in transatlantic relations, Trump stated he was considering withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany amid ongoing diplomatic disagreements.

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump extended the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, while Iran rejected negotiations with U.S. Vice President JD Vance as the U.S. continued its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. In the Indo-Pacific, Japan removed export bans on lethal weapons, marking a shift in its pacifist policy, while Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te canceled a trip to Eswatini, accusing China of pressuring nearby countries to restrict their airspace. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the European Union approved a $106 billion loan to Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy renewed calls for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This week, the United States imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing two-week ceasefire observed by the U.S., , with talks to extend it and resume diplomatic negotiations in Pakistan currently underway. In the Indo-Pacific, the in the South China Sea, while China eased some trade restrictions against Taiwan following last week’s negotiations with In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed multiple defense agreements with European countries, and the EU sought to move forward with dispensing a multibillion-dollar loan that had until now been held up by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who lost in last week’s parliamentary elections The U.S. has ramped up its planning for possible military action against Cuba amid continued talks over the country’s leadership.   Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/  

In this inaugural episode of Fellows in Focus, host Henry Rogers and guest Ava Gilder explore Ava's newest piece on Ethiopia and what drives her to be an analyst.

This week, President Donald Trump’s unveiling of reciprocal tariffs, including ones targeting China, Taiwan, the EU, and Southeast Asia, sent global markets falling and drew strong worldwide condemnation. Washington expressed frustration at Moscow’s unwillingness to end the war in Ukraine, as both Congress and the White House proposed sanctions and tariffs against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel deployed additional troops to Gaza, while the U.S. deployed a second aircraft carrier near Iran and renewed its threats to bomb Iran if it refuses to discuss a nuclear deal. In the Indo-Pacific, China conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan and struck an agreement to deepen economic ties with South Korea and Japan. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250404/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, U.S. and Russian officials met in Riyadh without any Ukrainian representation to discuss first steps for a Ukraine cease-fire, while U.S. President Donald Trump caused a diplomatic stir by calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator.” In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas continued their prisoner exchanges and agreed to commence with the second phase of their cease-fire agreement by the end of the week, while regional states discussed alternative plans for the future of Gaza. In the Indo-Pacific, China filed official complaints with the World Trade Organization against U.S. tariffs, as Trump suggested he would expand tariffs to include 25% taxes on all imports of automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical products. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250221/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, Syrian rebel groups captured Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad sought asylum in Moscow, and Israeli forces struck key military targets across Syria. In the Indo-Pacific, China held its largest military drills to date in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s recent Pacific tour, while the U.S. increased funding for key initiatives for Taiwan. In Ukraine, Russia made significant advances in Donetsk towards the city of Pokrovsk, while French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a trilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in Paris. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241213/

This week, rebel groups in Syria captured Aleppo and other areas in a renewed push against Bashar al-Assad’s government, while Israel bombed Lebanon despite the cease-fire. In the Indo-Pacific, China vowed to halt all exports of critical raw minerals to the U.S. in response to the latter’s new batch of export controls targeting Chinese tech companies, while South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol is facing possible impeachment after having imposed martial law, a decision quickly repealed by lawmakers. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, President Vladimir Putin threatened renewed IRBM strikes against Kyiv as Ukrainian officials met with incoming Trump administration officials in Washington. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241206/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a U.S.-mediated cease-fire, while fighting continued in Gaza, with Hamas signaling it could agree to cooperate on ceasing hostilities. In Ukraine, Kyiv experienced the largest drone bombing since the start of the war, and the U.K. unveiled additional sanctions against Russia. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwanese President William Lai is planning a visit to his diplomatic allies with a possible stop-over in the U.S., and Washington is making additional plans to deter China with the Philippines and Japan. In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump threatened additional tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada. In the closing of the U.N. COP29 climate conference, richer countries agreed to finance $300 billion per year to assist poorer countries with climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives.

On this episode of the Contours podcast, host Tammy Palacios sits down with Paul N.K. Aborampah Mensah, senior program manager for Ghana's Center for Democratic Development. Through their talk, they hone in on the situation and challenges ahead of Ghana's 2024 elections, including the Vigilantism Law, approaches to civic education, and how civil society groups can improve their effectiveness.

This week, Ukraine received authorization from the U.S. to use U.S.-supplied ATACM weapon systems to strike deep into Russia’s Kursk region, followed by the authorization to use British/French Storm Shadow missiles. In the Middle East, U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut and Jerusalem to propose ceasefire conditions for Hezbollah and Israel, while Israel continued its bombardments in Gaza and Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. announced new military aid and cooperation with the Philippines, and China signed several agreements with global partners during the G20 summit and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Brazil and Peru. Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitory here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20241122/ Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

In this episode, New Lines' Gender Policy Director Kallie Mitchell, along with guests Ruth Whippman and Cait Dallaire, explore the hidden dynamics of identity and power that are reshaping global security, democratic movements, and the future of political engagement.

This week, President-elect Donald Trump nominated members of his incoming government, and the Republican Party retained control of the House of Representatives. In the Middle East, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the annexation of the West Bank amid conflicting reports of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. In Russia, Ukrainian forces conducted large-scale drone attacks against Moscow, and Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly spoke with Trump about potential resolutions to the war. In the Indo-Pacific, China posted new delimitations around the contested Scarborough Shoal near the Philippines, and U.S. President Joe Biden is set to attend the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.

This week, former President Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, while the Republican Party won a Senate majority. In Russia, North Korean troops were reported to have entered combat with Ukrainian forces in Kursk, and Ukraine expressed interest in a Qatari-mediated agreement on the exclusion of energy targets. In the Middle East, Israel continued its assault in Lebanon while an unconfirmed report indicated the U.S. has deployed F-15 jets to Jordan to defend Israel from retaliatory attacks. In the Indo-Pacific, South Korea was hit by cyberattacks, while North Korea launched several short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan and the U.S. held long-range bomber drills with South Korean and Japanese forces.

Much attention has been paid to the supply of illicit drugs in the Middle East and war-torn Syria, but little has been focused on the patterns and implications of drug consumption in the region. However, a recent MedGlobal report reveals insightful data about Syria's emerging addiction crisis. The report notes that drug consumption has increased 300% since the outbreak of Syria's civil war, with high addiction rates associated with illicit substances, including captagon, crystal meth, heroin, cannabis, and other volatile substances. In this episode of the Contours podcast, the New Lines Institute’s Caroline Rose and Senior Non-Resident Fellow Dr. Karam Shaar discuss the report’s findings with MedGlobal President Dr. Zaher Sahloul and talk about the future of drug demand in Syria and beyond.

This week, hosts Miloš Maggiore and Andrew Loftesnes provide updates on U.S. domestic developments and examine some of the scenarios that the different U.S. election outcomes could entail across global hotspots. They further look at updates from this week. In Russia, the U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that North Korean troops have been deployed in Russia's Kursk region, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed with his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol to deepen intelligence exchanges. In the Middle East, Israel conducted air strikes against Iranian military infrastructure and passed a law preventing UNRWA operations in Israel. Finally in the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. approved military aid packages to Taiwan and the Philippines, while Japan's long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party failed to gain a majority in this week's parliamentary elections.

This week in the Russia-Ukraine war, the presence of North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia was confirmed. In the Pacific, American and Canadian warships transited the Taiwan strait in response to China's blockade training maneuvers last week. In the Middle East, hopes for ceasefire in the Gaza conflict increase in the wake of the death of Yaha Sinwar, Hamas' former leader.

This week, Israel took out Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, while the United States for the first time threatened to cut off arms supplies to Israel and the United Kingdom proposed sanctions against Israeli leaders. In the Indo-Pacific, China held its most intense military exercises this year, staging a blockade within Taiwan’s contiguous waters near its ports. 'In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy unveiled his “'Victory Plan'” to parliaments and leaders of the EU and NATO.

This week, the U.S. State Department officially backed Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, as additional Israeli troops were deployed into the country, continuing battles with Hezbollah, with the latter calling for a cease fire. In the Indo-Pacific, North Korea said it would bolster its fortifications along its border with the South, and naval clashes between the Philippines and China resumed in the South China Sea. In Ukraine, Russian forces continued their advances in Donetsk, and Ukrainian officials signaled their intentions to engage in a peace summit by the end of the year with the inclusion of Russia. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, the U.S. State Department officially backed Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, as additional Israeli troops were deployed into the country, continuing battles with Hezbollah, with the latter calling for a cease fire. In the Indo-Pacific, North Korea said it would bolster its fortifications along its border with the South, and naval clashes between the Philippines and China resumed in the South China Sea. In Ukraine, Russian forces continued their advances in Donetsk, and Ukrainian officials signaled their intentions to engage in a peace summit by the end of the year with the inclusion of Russia.

This week, the Middle East saw heavy military escalation after Israel launched a ground assault against Lebanon following the death of Hezbollah commander Hassan Nasrallah. Iran responded with a missile attack on Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, Russia and China conducted a joint naval patrol along the Arctic, while the U.S. imposed further trade restrictions against Chinese imports. In Ukraine, Russian forces made advances near Vuhledar and Moscow announced plans to conscript more men into the military, while the U.S. called Ukrainian President’s Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory plans “productive.” Editor's Note: This podcast was recorded on the morning of Thursday, Oct. 4 before the port workers strike ended. Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This week, Israel continued its airstrikes against Lebanon and Gaza, as the U.K. proposed increasing sanctions against West Bank settlers and members of the UN General Assembly repeatedly called for a ceasefire. In the Indo-Pacific, a Russian aircraft breached Japanese airspace for the first time, while the U.S. announced new partnerships in the region to increase resiliency for critical infrastructure and the critical minerals supply chain. In Ukraine, Russia expanded its nuclear doctrine and its cooperation with China while Zelensky visited the US to discuss a roadmap to victory.

This week, Israel conducted a major sabotage operation against Hezbollah, killing two dozen and injuring thousands in Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, a Chinese aircraft carrier sailed through Japanese contiguous waters, and the U.S. is facing TikTok in court while having disrupted a new major Chinese hacking group. In Ukraine, Russian forces made advances in Donetsk and in their counteroffensive in Kursk, while a Ukrainian drone attack took out a weapons depot near Moscow.

In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky sits down with Dr. Farid Shafiyev, the Chairman of the Baku-based Center of Analysis of International Relations and former Ambassador of Azerbaijan to Canada and the Czech Republic. Together, they take an in-depth look at Azerbaijan-Armenia relations and their impact on geopolitical dynamics throughout Eurasia and beyond.

This week, Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russia, as it launched its largest drone-attack against Moscow to date, while the US is considering lifting restrictions on use of long-range US-supplied weapons on Russian targets. In the Middle East, Iran is facing sanctions from the West as it supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, while Israel conducted strikes against targets in the West Bank and Gaza, including designated safe zones. In the Indo-Pacific, China is conducting joint naval exercises with Russia, and the US passed a number of bills addressing Chinese influence at home and in the Pacific.

In today’s episode of the Contours podcast, host Kelsey Quinn sits down with Middle East Affairs researcher Dr. Massaab Al-Aloosy. The pair discuss the increasing role China plays in the Middle East, the American response, and how regional powers are adapting to the changing dynamics.

Eugene Chausovsky and Miloš Maggiore discuss this week's rising tensions between China and Japan, as well as Putin's significant visit to Mongolia and rising tensions in the Gaza War.

In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Dr. Kamran Bokhari and Ejaz Haider, a prominent Pakistani broadcast journalist and analyst, discuss the recent arrest of Pakistan's former ISI head, the country's challenging civil-military relations, and the external pressures Pakistan faces.

This week, Ukraine continued to advance into Russian territory in Kursk and near Belgorod and agreed to a prisoner exchange with Russia. In the Middle East, Israel expanded its focus into the West Bank and exchanged cross-border strikes with Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with government officials in Beijing in an effort to de-escalate bilateral tensions, while a Chinese reconnaissance plane flew into Japanese airspace.

In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky talks with Richard Giragosian, founding director of the Regional Studies Center. Together, they discuss the implications of a potential peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the changing roles of foreign powers in the region, and what the future holds for connectivity throughout Eurasia.

This week, Ukraine continued to gain territory in Kursk as Indian PM Modi ramped up mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine. In the Middle East, Blinken’s diplomatic tour failed to reach a ceasefire as the Lebanon theater heated up. In the Indo-Pacific, China bolstered its ties with Russia and South East Asian countries as Beijing conducted military drills in the South China Sea.

This week, Ukraine continued its military push into Russia’s Kursk region as Moscow led its own offensive in eastern Ukraine. In the Middle East, diplomatic efforts over the Gaza conflict resumed in Qatar in an attempt to forestall Iranian military retaliation against Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded export controls on critical minerals as the U.S. and EU seek to diversify their own supply chains.

This week, Iran said it would retaliate after Israel killed Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Ukraine launched a major incursion into a Russian border region, while Moscow warned of a new front of the war in Africa. China and the U.S. and its allies held competing drills in the South China Sea.

In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Dr. Kamran Bokhari hosts former CENTCOM commander, Retired Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. “Frank” McKenzie, Jr., for a discussion on the intensifying conflict between Iran and Israel, the challenge of Iranian efforts to alter the security architecture of the Middle East, and the implications for U.S. foreign policy in the region and beyond.

Tensions have ramped up in the Middle East as Israel targeted the leadership of Hamas in Iran as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. In the meantime, there was a high profile prisoner exchange between the US and Russia, while there has also been a lot of activity in the Indo-Pacific region when it comes to the US, China, and various states maneuvering between the two powers.

In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Kamran Bokhari hosts Nicole Hark, country director for Syria at Mercy Corps, for a discussion of the country’s humanitarian situation, particularly in its northeastern and northwestern regions, where her group’s operations are concentrated.

In a special episode of the New Lines Contours Podcast, host Kelsey Quinn sits down with New Lines Non-Resident Fellows Daryl Johnson and Alejandro Beutel, both specialists on domestic political extremism. In the wake of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the three discuss the political climate in which the attack took place in, potential reactions to the shooting, and the importance of political leaders' rhetoric in modulating extremism.

In this episode of the Contours podcast, Eugene Chausovsky, senior director of analytical development at the New Lines Institute, and Marie Mach, an independent researcher of Eurasian extremist ideology, discuss the evolution of extremist violence in Central Asia, the factors driving recent attacks, and the outlook for the region.

In this episode of the Eurasian Connectivity podcast, Kamran Bokhari sits down with Vali Nasr, professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies. Together, they discuss Iran's presidential race after Raisi's death, the future of Iran's Supreme Leadership, and the shifting geopolitical landscape between Iran and Israel.

In today's episode of the Contours podcast, host Carolyn Morman talks with writer and New Lines contributor Abdulaziz Kilani. Together, they discuss how Israel's war in Gaza is affecting relations with its neighbors, the role America plays diplomatically in these changes, and how the Palestinian question may be addressed in the future.

In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Kamran Bokhari and Arnaud Quemin, the Middle East regional director of Mercy Corps, talk about the challenges of getting aid into Gaza, its evolving humanitarian situation, and the outlook for stability there after a cease-fire.

On this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, host Kamran Bokhari and guest Irfan Nooruddin, professor of Indian politics at Georgetown University, break down the recently concluded Indian national elections. Their discussion touches on the political opposition’s gains, the state of Hindutva, and how the results will affect India’s global relationships.

In this episode of the Contours Podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky talks with New Lines researcher Shahad Turkistani about the central role Saudi Arabia plays in the global energy picture, the future of the kingdom’s renewable energy diversification efforts, and how the country factors into U.S.-China competition.

In today's episode of the Contours podcast, host Kelsey Quinn sits down with Middle East Affairs researcher Dr. Massaab Al-Aloosy. The pair discuss the domestic tensions within Israel over the war, the Israeli intelligence failure leading to Oct. 7th, and how Israel has attempted to change its defense strategy over time.

In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky talks with New Lines Senior Fellow Chaouki Ghenai about their experiences with the recent flooding in Dubai. They also discuss steps the UAE and wider world can take to adapt to the changing global climate and mitigate its effects.

BLURB: In this Contours episode, host Eugene Chausovsky sits down with Mike Smeltzer, the Senior Research Analyst for Nations in Transit, Freedom House’s annual survey of democratic governance from Central Europe to Eurasia. Together, they discuss the struggles of Ukraine's democratization, the increasing authoritarianism in Russia, and the importance of protecting Ukraine and its democracy against Russia.

In the final episode of Russia In Context, Jeff Hawn sits down with Russian culture expert and author Ian Garner to discuss his new book, "Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia's Fascist Youth." Together, they dive into the emergence of Russia's Young Army, the effects social media has on it, and how this group has begun to shape Russia's next generation.

In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, host Kamran Bokhari sits down with New Lines Senior Director Nick Heras. Together, they dive into how a spate of international attacks may signal a resurgence of the Islamic State, the group's refocus to Central Asia, and how the global community could react.

Russia in Context podcast host Jeff Hawn continues talking with Harold Chambers and Ivan Klyszcz, who are joined by Natia Seskuria, another expert on Russia and the Caucasus, for a discussion focusing on the South Caucasus region. Among the topics they cover are the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Georgia's political environment, and Russian influence in the region.

In today's Eurasian Connectivity episode, host Kamran Bokhari sits down with Dr. Ariel Cohen and China expert Wesley Alexander to discuss their recent report on rare earth minerals in Central Asia and the need for the United States to increase its access to these minerals. The trio discuss China's massive supply of these minerals, the geography of mineral deposits and their implications, and what the U.S. can do to secure them.