Ninety One | The Big Picture

Dollar cycles are longer than others because four self-reinforcing forces create inertia. They rarely reverse unless all four turn at once. Trump-era policies, fiscal strain and shifting global capital could trigger such a convergence. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With tariffs becoming an increasingly unpredictable tool of US economic policy, Sangeeth Sewnath, Head of Americas, sits down with our experts Thys Louw and Sahil Mahtani to discuss how investors should approach tariff risk. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the US performing strongly and China showing signs of turning a corner, a global economic recovery is building. There are abundant opportunities for investors, but 2025 requires a new investment playbook. Philip Saunders and Sahil Mahtani explore where the smart capital will be heading – and where the pitfalls lie. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Whether it’s shifting focus from the macro to the micro, or questioning the consensus, investors should look beyond the mainstream spotlight to get the best out of the asset class. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As we look ahead to 2025, the Year of the Snake, we explore the evolving opportunities and challenges in the China market. Our experts discuss how investors can navigate this landscape. From policy shifts and geopolitical developments to equity and fixed-income strategies, they share insights into what the year may hold for the world’s second-largest economy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Higher interest rates and policy uncertainty have resulted in negative sentiment towards clean-tech sectors. This is creating a compelling opportunity for a countercyclical, diversified source of returns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Clyde Rossouw explains why investors who buy businesses that have realisable growth – not the promise of growth - should be well placed in 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Elias Erickson explains why international equities offer a diverse set of value-accretive businesses in an increasingly narrow market, presenting an attractive opportunity for active investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

4Factor’s Rhynhardt Roodt reflects on a strong year for equity market momentum and considers where best to focus in 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Following another stellar year in credit markets, the case for embracing a more diverse opportunity set has never been clearer. With traditional markets looking so expensive, investors seeking steady income and portfolio resilience should avoid following the crowd. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Amid global uncertainty and shifting markets, fixed income emerges as a reliable anchor for investors. However, John Stopford sees better opportunities beyond traditional markets in 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gold shone in 2024, and the sector appears poised to maintain its appeal as an investment opportunity. George Cheveley examines the factors influencing the commodity sector in the year ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Equity markets reacted favourably to the US election result. However, Philip Saunders, Director of Ninety One’s Investment Institute reminds us that regardless of the party in power, long-term market movements are driven by fundamentals – growth matters.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The prospects for oil appear positive on a five-year view, not least because US shale supply could plateau in the next few years. However, investors will need to be careful in 2025, because demand worries and supply growth add up to a bearish outlook. As portfolio manager Paul Gooden explains, there are still opportunities, but active management will be key. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Sustainability with Substance, Stephanie Niven is joined by Paul Ronalds, CEO of Global Ventures at Save the Children, looking at on the ground, impactful routes to delivering change across different drivers, pulling together health tech innovation, climate adaptation insurance, and decarbonising cooking facilities into a sustainability landscape, comparing opportunities and approaches across the public and private markets. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The conventions are over, the banners banished, and the balloons have popped. Now Kamala Harris and Donald Trump get serious in the run-up to November 5th. Without picking sides, Philip Saunders analyses this most tight of political struggles and speculates on market reaction to both possible eventualities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation in the UK has ticked up while in the US it’s crept lower. It’s tempting to call that a halt in inflation’s precipitous fall is upon us because of amongst other factors, the base effect. Jason Borbora-Sheen disagrees, and even sees a possibility of continuing disinflation. The reaction by central banks will likely continue to be the focus of market participants’ attention. With this backdrop, Borbora-Sheen forward the case for bonds. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Sustainable Equity analyst Eric Opara sits down with Nikki Gwilliam-Beeharee from the World Benchmarking Alliance to examine some of the challenges and opportunities of digital inclusion. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The performance of developed economies and the action of central banks recently caused acute financial market tensions and volatility. What really happened, why, and was it avoidable? John Stopford looks back on a testing week and assesses the near-term prospects, with a keen eye on the background of US politics. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gold has been breaking records in US$ terms in 2024, and the future seems bright for the yellow metal. Fundamentals underpinning the gold price include central bank demand, US fiscal worries and the prospect of lower interest rates and the de-dollarisation of the global monetary system. Add to this the chance of another Trump presidency and gold bulls are on high alert. Iain Cunningham examines the key factors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We are half way through 2024 and most emerging market elections have now taken place, notably in South Africa, India, and Mexico. Given that elections often move markets, Ninety One emerging market specialists, Malcolm Charles and Nicolas Jaquier take stock to assess their impact. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bram Wagner, a prominent specialist from the Access to Medicine Foundation, engages in a thoughtful conversation with Portfolio Manager, Matt Evans, about how we can think of healthcare investing through the lens of accessibility. Initiatives aimed at improving accessibility on a global scale can significantly expand addressable markets within the healthcare industry. This provides investors with an opportunity not only to contribute meaningfully to enhancing accessibility, but also to invest in areas primed for structural growth. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephanie Niven sits down with experienced and award winning impact investor Dimple Sahni from Anthos Fund and Asset Management to examine some of the challenges and opportunities of turning impact insights into an alpha advantage. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ninety One’s Stephanie Niven and Jake Thomson examine some of the front-line challenges and impact potential of African conservation. They are joined by the pioneering leader and founder of the non-profit Tusk Trust, Charlie Mayhew. Hear Charlie talk about some hard-won ‘war stories’ showing what’s at stake as they discuss the evolving financial model required to protect Africa’s natural environment. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If polls are to be believed, the 14-year tenure of the UK’s Conservative Party is about to end. Change is often greeted with trepidation by society, business and markets. However, in this case the UK has displayed stability, especially relative to some of its European peers. Matt Evans examines the mood and the potential market moves after July 4th, Election Day. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We have grown used to 'higher for longer', but the winds of change have now seemingly started to blow in the corridors of monetary policy power. Sweden and Switzerland have cut, and Canada followed suit. All eyes were on the ECB, and it did not disappoint, cutting rates by 25 basis points. Christine Lagarde was still guarded, however, and did not commit to further falls. John Stopford analyses the implications. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Investment analysts frequently ignore culture and inclusion, focusing exclusively on companies’ financial statements. Yet the ‘human factor’ is often among the key drivers of corporate performance, and ultimately of shareholder returns. Professor Alex Edmans talks with Ninety One’s Stephanie Niven and Miles Hamilton about how to leverage research into culture and inclusion into better investment decisions. They also discuss their joint work to develop a practical framework for incorporating culture insights into investment analysis. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For Schneider Electric, a multinational company that specialises in digital automation and energy management, sustainability isn’t just about doing good. It’s a way of aligning the business to the structural tailwinds created by a decarbonising world. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Juliana Hansveden and Yuxin Lin from the Sustainable Equity team recently travelled to China and Korea to meet existing and prospective portfolio companies. They discuss the insights gained from the trip and detail how they’re capturing the structural growth opportunities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Portfolio Manager Stephanie Niven and analyst Sam Anthony discuss the importance of biodiversity and how they think about it from an investment perspective. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

India offers an exciting decarbonisation growth opportunity, but it is also fast becoming the most populous country in the world. With that comes both risks and opportunities for investors. Portfolio Manager Graeme Baker is joined by Ninety One analyst Arita Sehgal and London School of Economics Professor in Practice Nick Robins to unpack this topic. They look at India’s impact on the world’s transition to net zero and what a just transition looks like for the country. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After the recent optimism of market participants that sent US markets to record highs and bond yields tumbling, the mood has changed. Bond yields have risen sharply and frothy equities are well off their highs as inflation has proved stubbornly high. John Stopford analyses the data in the US and beyond.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A new capex supercycle is forecast to shape the next decade, driven by a fusion of factors. Join strategist Sahil Mahtani as he delves into the historical backdrop, identifies key drivers, and explains what it means for investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global commodities prices as measured by the CRB Index have increased around 14% in 2024 and investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about a meaningful long-term up cycle. From copper to cocoa and gold to PGMs, George Cheveley explains the fundamentals behind the rally and the prospect of it persisting and considers the outlook for the share prices of resources companies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The year is still in Q1 but already it's billing as being all about politics and the price of money is justified. In a matter of days the US primaries have whittled down the US election to the familiar old candidates, the UK has delivered a surprise-free budget, the ECB has kept rates on hold while the Fed chair has merely changed the date of his speech to Congress. Markets meander upwards unfazed, but with more than 50 elections due in 2024, multiple reserve bank meetings and the ongoing spectre of wars, surely something must give? In an interview recorded on Friday 8th March, Russell Silberston analyses a packed diary.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The shadow of a poorly performing JSE resources sector and the dollar price of certain commodities hung over the annual Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The PGM sector, which is one of South Africa’s most important export products, garnered much of the attention, but copper, gold and some bulk commodities also took centre stage. Dawid Heyl shares his perspective on the Indaba and the outlook for the sector. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Since 2021, major economic cycles have been out of sync. Tight policy in Europe and very loose policy in Japan, leads us to predict a great asymmetry over the next 12 months between the two. Iain Cunningham, Head of Multi-Asset Growth explains why we are long the yen versus the euro. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After a challenging year, Wenchang Ma sees brighter prospects for Chinese equities in 2024, with weak sentiment providing an entry point to invest in some of the world’s most attractive companies. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Historically high yields across global credit markets underpin a positive outlook for the asset class. With significant and rising dispersion, look out for plenty of compelling bottom-up opportunities, but also some no-go areas for investors. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Improving global growth and inflation dynamics are supportive for the asset class, but risks remain and a bottom-up approach will be vital for capturing the opportunities and building resilient portfolios. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Many debt-issuing companies across emerging markets have positioned themselves well for the ‘higher-for-longer’ rates environment. EM economies are also on solid footing, and profitable cross-country collaboration is making EM corporate debt an exciting place to be. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With 2023 falling short of expectations in terms of a recovery for emerging markets equities, Archie Hart explains the need for caution in the coming months, but remains optimistic on a 1- or 2-year view, given that the building blocks for a turnaround are beginning to fall in place. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Environmental equities have been hit by a downturn in market sentiment. This is creating new opportunities to get exposure to parts of the economy expected to grow fast as the energy transition progresses. Deirdre Cooper and Graeme Baker assess the outlook for investors in decarbonisation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With interest rates set to remain higher for longer, investors have some thinking to do. Are the same rules that have applied for the past few decades still in play, or is a different approach needed? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Paris Agreement of 2015 inspired widespread action to reduce forecasts of future warming. Arguably, this is not enough. Ninety One’s Chief Sustainability Officer, Nazmeera Moola, discusses the investment industry’s roles and responsibilities when it comes to driving the transition to net zero. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Green, Chief Commercial Officer and Annika Brouwer, Sustainability Specialist reflect on their time at COP28, the progress that’s been made and the highlights from a climate finance perspective. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With 2023 falling short of expectations in terms of a recovery for emerging markets equities, Archie Hart explains the need for caution in the coming months, but remains optimistic on a 1- or 2-year view, given that the building blocks for a turnaround are beginning to fall in place. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

At a global level, the path immediately ahead could be choppy. But beneath the surface, currents that favour emerging markets are gathering force, explain Victoria Harling, Varun Laijawalla and Grant Webster. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A radical reset in borrowing costs has changed the rules of the game for investors. Philip Saunders and Sahil Mahtani assess the outlook for 2024 and beyond, and discuss where to invest for a new market cycle. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In a detailed podcast, Philip Saunders argues that much of the current geopolitical malaise is the result of the rise of China – one of the five major structural macro themes identified in our ‘Road to 2030’ analytical series – its scale, its ‘all-state’ characteristics and America’s response to it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.