PODCAST · business
Odds on Open
by Ethan Kho
Conversations with leading thinkers on trading and investing.Hosted by Ethan Kho.Produced by Patrick Kho.
Episodes
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Hedge Fund Manager Joseph Walsh: Always Play Weaker Players
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html On this episode of Odds on Open, hedge fund manager Joe Walsh joins Ethan Kho to break down how probabilistic decision-making and bankroll management from high-stakes poker translate into institutional equity outperformance. Walsh...
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Ex-Goldman MD: "Credit Markets Move in Step Functions"
Geoffrey Williams spent more than a decade at Goldman Sachs, where he traded structured products through the 2008 financial crisis and later co-ran the CMBS trading business. In this episode of Odds on Open, he takes Ethan Kho inside the Goldman mortgage desk as Bear Stearns and Lehman collapsed....
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Ex-Lehman Trader: AI Won't Give You Edge
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html In this episode of Odds on Open, Alpaca Co-Founder and CEO Yoshi Yokokawa breaks down the changing microstructure of systematic trading, the democratization of quantitative R&D, and why AI agents alone will never grant you a…
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Retail Trader vs. Hedge Fund Manager: Where Is the Real Alpha?
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Chris Camillo and Tom Costello go head-to-head on Odds on Open's first every debate episode. They answer a question every trader eventually confronts: who is actually better positioned to take risk — a concentrated retail investor…
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Ex-IMC Semiconductors Quant: AI Is Good Enough to Beat the S&P 500
Lihong Wang spent his career as a discretionary options trader at IMC, one of the world's largest market makers, trading semiconductor volatility on names like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. In this episode, he breaks down how a prop trading desk actually makes money: reading order flow to identify...
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Hedge Fund Manager Alix Pasquet: How Small Funds Can Outsmart Multi-Managers
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Alix Pasquet, hedge fund manager and Managing Partner at Prime Macaya Capital, breaks down how fundamental investors build durable edge in modern markets. In this episode, Alix explains the three sources of competitive advantage in…
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Greed Makes Markets: Market Making From First Principles With an HFT Quant
How does market making actually work? In this lecture, former high-frequency trader Annanay Kapila (Flow Traders, Tower Research Capital; founder & CEO of QFEX) breaks down the mechanics of market making from first principles. He maps the systematic trading landscape—prop trading vs hedge funds,...
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22-Year-Old Hedge Fund Manager: “Hedge funds are the least sexy business in the world”
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Noah Kann is 22, running his third firm, and managing capital raised from some of the wealthiest families in America. On this episode of Odds on Open, Ethan Kho sits down with the co-CEO of Venari Asset Management to unpack what a...
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He Started a Quant Fund in His Dorm. Now He's Building the Brokerage for Everything.
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.html Lucas Schuermann started a market-neutral quant fund in his Columbia dorm room, trading stat arb across FX and early crypto markets, before dropping out to scale it into Q Capital. In this episode of Odds on Open, he breaks down how…
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Inside the Billionaire-Backed Prediction Markets Hedge Fund
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.htmlCamilo Saravia is the founder of BlueWalker Capital, a systematic hedge fund trading prediction markets — and possibly the only fund dedicated exclusively to the asset class. Backed by Daniel Howard, son of Brevan Howard co-founder…
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World's #1 Oil Hedge Fund Manager: How I Made 200% While Everyone Lost 60%
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/flux4/index.htmlJosh Young (Bison Capital) on Energy Alpha, Deep Value, and Activism in Small-Cap Oil & Gas: Josh Young runs a concentrated, long-only public equities energy fund that's up 200% since inception while the energy sector is down 60% — a...
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The Strategy Behind Asia’s $6 Billion Quant Fund: Quantedge
Checkout Flux 4.0 here: https://www.flux.live/Suhaimi Zainul-Abidi is the CEO of Quantedge, the Singapore-based systematic hedge fund that has compounded at roughly 20% net annualized returns for 20 years — growing from $3 million raised from friends and family to over $6 billion in AUM, with…
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Ex-Balyasny PM: “Automation will increase demand for hedge fund talent.”
In this episode of Odds on Open, former Balyasny Asset Management (BAM) quantamental portfolio manager and Imply founder Ying Hua breaks down how top multi-manager hedge funds synthesize quantitative discipline with discretionary analysis to extract repeatable market alpha. Ying details the...
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~100% Returns in 2025, No Losing Year Since 2008: Erik Smolinski on Edge for Retail Trader Edge
In this episode of *Odds on Open*, hedge fund risk manager and derivatives trader Erik Smolinski deconstructs the structural mechanics of alpha generation, portfolio construction, and risk mitigation in liquid markets. Boasting a near-100% return last year and a flawless annual track record since...
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Ex-Citadel PM: All Hedge Fund Failures Are Because of One Reason - Rich Falk Wallace
In this episode of Odds on Open, we dissect the mechanics of institutional alpha generation with Rich Falk-Wallace, founder of Arcana and former portfolio manager at Citadel. Rich explains why the vast majority of hedge fund failures stem from flawed portfolio construction and mismanaged risk...
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Ex-Two Sigma Quant: You Should Bet Against Bullish Analysts
Apply to Onyx’s trading event here: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/uni-studentsIn this episode of Odds on Open, former Two Sigma quant Omer Cedar joins host Ethan to deconstruct how top-tier quantitative hedge funds systematically aggregate discretionary signals to isolate pure alpha. Cedar...
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Ex-Citadel Quant on Trading the Most Asymmetric Market - Neel Somani
Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cIn this episode of Odds on Open, former Citadel quant researcher Neel Somani breaks down the opaque market structure and alpha generation mechanisms driving institutional power and...
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LTCM Co-founder Victor Hagani: “Taking Risk Is Always a Negative.”
Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cIn this episode of Odds on Open, we sit down with Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and founder of Elm Wealth, to dissect why institutional alpha...
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Quant Hedge Fund Partner: Raising Capital Is Harder Than Generating Returns
Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cDeWayne Louis (Versor Investments) returns to break down the part of the business almost no one explains: not generating returns, but raising the capital to scale them. After Versor...
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Ex-WorldQuant Head of Data Strategy: Quants “Don’t Care About the Stock Market”
In this episode of Odds on Open, we deconstruct the evolution of alternative data and alpha generation with Matt Ober, former Head of Data Strategy at WorldQuant and Chief Data Scientist at Third Point. We dive deep into the institutional framework required to scale systematic trading strategies,...
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The Secret to Uncorrelated Alpha in Crypto - Leigh Drogen on Starkiller Capital’s Sharpe Ratio of 4
Apply to Onyx’s Junior Tech Graduate Scheme here: https://verichain.io/apply/0aa1debe-ac6c-452f-9421-da6cbf4a3e8cLeigh Drogen, CIO of Starkiller Capital, joins the podcast to dissect the mechanics of a market neutral DeFi strategy currently operating at a 4 Sharpe ratio. We move past…
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“Market Crashes Are Good for My Strategy” - One-Man Hedge Fund PM George Livadas
Apply here: https://onyxcapitalgroup.com/uni-studentsGeorge Livadas, Portfolio Manager and founder of Peregrine Capital, joins the show to break down the mechanics of running a concentrated, defensive long/short strategy as a solo PM. We explore how George generates alpha by systematically…
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“If it is easy and obvious, there is no edge in it” - TD Quant Matt Schrager
In this episode of Odds on Open, TD Quant Matt Schrager discusses the microstructure of municipal bond market making and the technical challenges of extracting alpha from illiquid fixed income instruments. We analyze the shift from low-latency HFT frameworks to the probabilistic modeling and...
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Ex-Tudor Quant PM: “There Hasn't Been a New Idea in Trading for 15 Years”
In this episode of Odds on Open, we go deep into the mechanics of edge, credibility, and the structural evolution of the hedge fund industry. Host Ethan sits down with Tom, a veteran Quant PM formerly of Tudor Investment Corp and Moore Capital, to deconstruct what separates the top-tier "pod…
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“Concentrated Strategies Will Do Extremely Well” - Sean Emory on Outperforming the Index
Sean Emory of Avery discusses the evolution of edge in liquid markets, specifically how to leverage alternative data—from App Store analytics to digital exhaust—to identify fundamental inflection points before they are reflected in the price. We dive deep into Sean’s underwriting process…
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“It’s the Dumbest Market in the World” - Quant Trader Scott Phillips on Edge in Crypto
In this episode of Odds on Open, quant trader Scott Phillips joins the pod to break down why crypto remains "the dumbest market in the world" and a goldmine for systematic edge. We dive deep into table selection and why the lack of institutional competition allows for Sharpe ratios exceeding 2.0...
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Now Is the Best Time to Become a Junior Analyst - Ex-Citadel and D. E. Shaw PM Brett Caughran
Get 10% off on Fundamental Edge: https://www.fundamentedge.com/odds-on-open-podcastIn this episode of Odds on Open, Ethan Kho sits down with Brett Caughran, founder of Fundamental Edge and a former Portfolio Manager at elite Tiger Cub and Multi-Manager (MM) firms.As generative AI and agentic...
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"Positions Can Be LESS Risky at Higher Prices" - Derek Pilecki on Finding Edge in Financials
In this episode of Odds on Open, Ethan Kho sits down with Derek Pilecki, founder of Gator Capital Management, to deconstruct his 20%+ annualized track record in the financial sector. While many generalist PMs view financials as a "sleepy backwater" or overly complex, Derek explains how he…
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How Billionaire Hedge Fund Managers Are Using Generative AI to Invest
In this episode of Odds on Open, we analyze the technical architecture of the data science layer within fundamental hedge funds. Guest Matei Zatreanu, founder of System2, discusses the tension between generative AI and the search for outlier-driven alpha. We move beyond the hype of LLMs to…
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How the World’s Largest Oil Derivatives Trading Firm Is Navigating the Iran War
This episode was filmed on Thursday, March 12, 2026. Greg Newman, founder and CEO of Onyx Capital Group and the largest liquidity provider in oil derivatives markets, on what it actually looks like to run a market-making book when liquidity breaks down entirely. What most participants…
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Annie Duke on Thinking in Bets - And Why Winners Can Be Wrong
Legendary poker champion, decision scientist, and author of "Thinking in Bets," Annie Duke deconstructs the mechanics of decision-making under uncertainty, shifting the focus from high-variance outcomes to the rigor of positive expectancy and robust process. Leveraging her background in...
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Meet the 25-Year-Old Running a Multi-Manager Hedge Fund
Zachary A. Levitt joins the pod to break down the architecture of a capacity-constrained multi-manager platform designed to harvest high alpha loads in niche, idiosyncratic markets. We dive deep into portfolio construction beyond the "Big Four" pod model, focusing on inverse-volatility weighting,...
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Alpha Comes From a Differentiated View - Ex-Point72 Prop Research Head Kirk McKeown on Edge in 2026
Check out Carbon Arc here: https://www.carbonarc.co/ Kirk McKeown, founder and CEO of Carbon Arc and former senior investor-facing operator across Glenview and Point72, on how alpha migrates as market structure, tooling, and competition evolve. What most investors misunderstand about “edge” is…
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What Druckenmiller Style Investing Gets Wrong - Alfonso Pecatiello on Edge in Macro Trading
My Substack: https://ethankho.substack.com/ Alfonso Pecatiello — known as "Alf" and founder of The Macro Compass and founder of Palinuro Capital, a macro hedge fund— joins Ethan Kho to break down the frameworks behind global macro trading, real economy money creation, and what it truly takes to...
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“I think of everything as a bet” - Ex-SIG Quant Trader Andrew Courtney
Former Susquehanna International Group (SIG) Head Trader Andrew Courtney breaks down the reality of being a quant trader and market maker at one of the world's elite proprietary trading firms. He reveals what trading floors actually look like—multiple monitors covered with flashing numbers,...
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“Conviction is dangerous” - Emerging Markets Hedge Fund Manager Sinan Xin
Sinan Xin manages an emerging markets tech hedge fund from New York, investing across China, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and beyond. In this conversation, he shares how he builds edge in some of the world's most volatile markets. We discuss: Why conviction can become bias—and how to tell the...
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“AI Makes Analysts Lazy” - Hedge Fund Manager Alix Pasquet on the Importance of Analog Training
In this episode, hedge fund manager Alix returns to Odds on Open to tackle what he calls the most important problem facing young investors today: the complete loss of analog training skills that created the greatest investors of previous generations. Alix runs a hedge fund that deliberately…
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Why 20% of Hedge Funds Fail After One Year - Claudia Quintela on Why Managers Need Business Sense
Disclaimer: This is not a financial promotion and must not be seen as advice, but only as an educational piece Cláudia Quintela has spent 25 years connecting early-stage hedge fund managers with institutional capital. She's worked across FX, macro, and systematic strategies at State Street, UBS,...
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How I Built a 1.4-Billion-Dollar Quant Fund - Deepak Gurnani on Founding Versor Investments
In November 2025, I hosted a fireside chat at Columbia University with Deepak Gurnani, founder of Versor Investments, a $1.4 billion [1] quantitative hedge fund based in New York with offices in New York and Mumbai. Deepak spent two decades at Investcorp, where he built and led the firm’s hedge...
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This Ex-Poker Pro Built a Hedge Fund by Betting Against Beta – David Orr on Asymmetric Bets
Ethan Kho interviews David Orr, a former professional poker player turned hedge fund manager. They discuss David's journey from poker to founding Militia Capital, his investment philosophy, and the lessons learned from both industries. David shares insights on risk management, the importance of...
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How Leading Multi Strat Funds Hire - Recruiting Director Jesse Skaff on the Hedge Fund Talent War
Discover how top multi-manager hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium attract the brightest minds, the evolving talent strategies in the industry, and the unique traits that set successful candidates apart. Whether you're an aspiring finance professional or just curious about the inner workings…
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How the World’s #1 Prediction Markets Trader Finds Edge! - Domer on Trading Global Political Events
What’s the difference between prediction markets trading and equities trading? On Odds on Open, the world’s #1 prediction markets trader Domer explains how prediction markets work as a form of information-based trading, where news and signals can arrive at any moment, forcing continuous price...
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Why SIG Tells Traders Not to Hedge! - Ex-SIG Trader and Moontower Founder, Kris Abdelmessih
❗ACCESS OPPORTUNITIES EXCLUSIVE TO OOO VIEWERS: https://app.youform.com/forms/e2jpsj4z ❗ How do top hedge funds actually hedge trades? At SIG, traders were often told not to hedge. Most assume elite trading firms hedge every position, but Susquehanna (SIG) built its edge by avoiding hedging when...
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How High Frequency Trading Became “The Most Cutthroat Business!” - Ex-HFT Trader, Annanay Kapila
In this episode, former Tower Research and Flow Traders quant Annanay Kapila breaks down the reality of high frequency trading, HFT strategies, and top automated trading systems. He explains what quant researchers actually do inside elite firms—where world-class math talent competes in a true...
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Youngest-Ever Citadel MD: What It’s Like to Work Side-by-Side with Ken Griffin
Former Citadel MD Michael Watson gives a direct look inside a multi-strategy hedge fund and what it was like working under Ken Griffin. He breaks down Citadel’s pod-shop model, its high-intensity capital allocation frameworks, and how Ken built a concentration of talent across quant trading…
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SIG Director: How Susquehanna Trains Top Traders with Poker
What’s it like being a trader at SIG? At Susquehanna International Group, Todd Simkin has trained some of the world’s best traders using poker strategy, probabilistic games, and decision-making under uncertainty that mirror real-world quantitative trading. In this episode, Todd breaks down how…
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Ex–Goldman and DRW Trader on Trading Before Algorithms Took Over
John Knorring spent over a decade on the Goldman Sachs trading floor, leading natural gas trading through the 2000s—a period defined by trading in a financial crisis, Hurricane-driven volatility, the Amaranth blow-up analysis, and trading during 2008 when bank desks had to price massive option...
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Ex-AIA Quant Director: Every Hedge Fund That Fails Makes THIS Mistake
How do you start a hedge fund—and where should you launch it? Daniel Xystus has done both. From Los Angeles quant to Chicago portfolio manager to CIO in Hong Kong and the Middle East, Daniel now helps new hedge fund managers navigate fund setup, regulation, and operations. We break down what it...
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Partners at Versor Reveal Their Quant Strategies Managing $1.4 Billion
How do top quantitative trading firms use generative AI? @versorinvestments , a $1.4B[1] quantitative investment boutique in the asset management industry, reveals how human ingenuity drives its AI-powered investment research and machine learning in finance pipeline. Partners DeWayne Louis and...
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Ex- Citadel Analyst and Millennium PM: What It’s Like Inside Both Hedge Funds
Doug Garber, former Citadel hedge fund analyst and Millennium Management portfolio manager, joins the show to unpack what it’s really like inside two of the world’s top multi-manager hedge funds — and how each approaches portfolio construction, risk management, and hedge fund culture. Drawing…
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Conversations with leading thinkers on trading and investing.Hosted by Ethan Kho.Produced by Patrick Kho.
HOSTED BY
Ethan Kho
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does Odds on Open have?
Odds on Open currently has 75 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Odds on Open about?
Conversations with leading thinkers on trading and investing.Hosted by Ethan Kho.Produced by Patrick Kho.
How often does Odds on Open release new episodes?
Odds on Open has 75 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
Where can I listen to Odds on Open?
You can listen to Odds on Open on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts Odds on Open?
Odds on Open is created and hosted by Ethan Kho.
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