On The Ground in China

Hi friend, Welcome to On The Ground in China Episode 12!In this episode, Aubrey Martinson and Doug Guthrie explore the high-stakes evolution of U.S.-China relations as we approach a critical mid-May summit between President Trump and Chairman Xi. We dive into why the “G2” concept—the recognition of the U.S. and China as the world’s two indispensable economic leaders—remains the most powerful narrative for global stability, even as regional conflicts create new layers of friction.Expect to learn: The Marriage Metaphor: Why the deep embeddedness of giants like Apple, Tesla, and Walmart makes “decoupling” a catastrophic risk for the U.S. economy; The Cost of War: How the conflict in Iran is directly impacting Chinese auto sales; The Savings Divide: The cultural and philosophical roots of China’s high savings rate vs. the U.S. 3% rate, and why it isn’t necessarily an economic weakness; 15th Five-Year Plan in Aerospace: China’s new strategic focus on commercial space launches, satellite internet dominance, and deep space exploration; The Global South Rebrand: Why countries in the Middle East are beginning to refer to themselves as “West Asia” as they align closer with China’s leadership in the Global South.Timestamp:00:01 Introduction: 45 Years of U.S-China Partnership since 197903:45 The Trump-Xi Meeting: Preparing for the mid-May Red Carpet in Beijing05:30 Current Events: How the Iran Conflict is affecting the Chinese economy07:15 Oil and Gas: The Strait of Hormuz and China’s Middle East strategy10:47 Leverage: Does the war give the U.S. more negotiation power?14:26 AI Competition: China blocks Meta’s $2.2B acquisition of a Chinese startup22:36 The Stock Exchange Shift: Mainland companies moving to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange28:45 15th Five-Year Plan: The Aerospace Layer and the “Crowded” Orbit35:23 “Going Out into the Ocean”: China’s leadership in the Global South and BRICSVisit our website: OnGlobalLeadership.comFor more info on Doug Guthrie: profguthrie.com

Hi friend, Welcome to On The Ground in China Episode 11!Aubrey Martinson and Doug Guthrie are back to discuss the massive shifts occurring in the global political economy. This episode centers on the formal passage of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: a strategic roadmap that dates back to the 1950s but has never been more relevant to the West than it is today.We also dive into how the conflict in Iran is delaying critical diplomatic meetings and impacting small businesses through rising oil costs and why the current “G2” dynamic between President Trump and Chairman Xi remains a fragile but essential partnership.Expect to learn: How China balances top-down central planning with a “culture of innovation” at the local government level, Why blocking Chinese automakers from the U.S. might actually hinder American job growth and manufacturing learning as well as The difference between user-friendly U.S. AI and China’s math-heavy, logistics-focused AI designed to build the world’s best manufacturing engineTimestamp00:00 Introduction: Catching up on OGL Creative Leadership with Prof. Slocum02:27 Current Events: Jensen Huang comments about AI and Huawei’s new chips06:46 U.S Senators’ Letter: Why blocking BYD from Michigan is a strategic mistake11:05 The War in Iran: Impact on the Trump-Xi meeting delay and global oil prices16:29 The 15th Five-Year Plan: History and the “Better at Capitalism” debate20:39 Local Governments as Industrial Firms: How China advances political careers through KPIs25:26 Education & High-Value Patents: The return of Foreign Joint Venture Universities31:30 Strategic Focus: Science, Engineering, and Global Collaboration33:46 The Contrast: U.S. Market-Driven EV Consumption vs. China’s Coordinated Effort37:10 Final Thoughts: Independent thinking in a polarized worldVisit our website: OnGlobalLeadership.comFor more info on Doug Guthrie: profguthrie.com

Who is Winning the "Global Popularity" War?Hi friend, Welcome to On The Ground in China Episode 10!In this episode, Doug Guthrie is joined by David to discuss the critical state of U.S.-China relations. As Gallup releases its most recent Global Approval Ratings in April 2026, China’s global approval surpass that of the U.S for the first time. This unprecedented rating comes at a time when President Trump’s highly anticipated visit to Beijing is delayed by five weeks due to conflicts in the Middle East and a different leader made a significant move: Apple CEO Tim Cook visited China to celebrate the company’s 50th anniversary and reinforce a vital partnership.We explore why the current narrative of “decoupling” is often at odds with economic reality. With a trillion-dollar trade surplus and a manufacturing supply chain that spans over 1,000+ suppliers for Apple alone, China remains an indispensable partner for the world’s largest companies.Expect to learn: Why President Trump’s branding of U.S.-China relations as “The G2” was a major symbolic victory for Chinese diplomacy, Why tariffs fail when a domestic manufacturing supply chain doesn’t exist to replace Chinese production, and a fascinating look from Dubai at how the Middle East is beginning to reorient its identity toward the East.Listen now everywhere on Spotify, Apple Podcast and Amazon MusicTimestamp00:00 Introduction: Welcoming David and the OGL Philosophy04:35 The Importance of Visits: From Bertrand Russell (1922) to Tim Cook08:30 The Theory of Tariffs and the Reality of Supply Chains09:40 The G2 Meeting: Moving from the “Kids Table” to Global Partnership11:20 Why is Tim Cook Visiting China?12:30 What to Expect from Trump’s Postponed May Visit to Beijing16:16 Why Barring Chinese Automakers is a Mistake for U.S. Jobs19:10 The TSMC Example: How Half a Trillion Dollars Investment is Transforming Arizona22:00 Global Approval Ratings: Why China is Winning the Favorability War25:00 The Global South: BRICS, Belt and Road, and “Going Out”27:40 Perspectives from Dubai: Is the Middle East becoming “Western Asia”?29:00 Final Thoughts: Navigating a Critical Time in Global Relations

Challenges of a Neurodivergent Working in the C-SuiteHi friend, Welcome to a special edition of the OGL Podcast!In this episode, Doug Guthrie is joined by OGL co-founder and creative leadership expert Prof. David Slocum. While our “On The Ground in China” series usually focuses on the ebbing and flowing of geopolitics, we are taking a deep dive into the second pillar of our organization: Creative Leadership.David shares his decades of expertise on the evolution of Creative Leadership to explore how creativity and innovation are essential in all roles in navigating complex global business systems. We also have a deeply personal and candid conversation about Neurodivergence in leadership when Doug shares his own experience being neurodivergent working in C-suite and discusses why the modern business world needs to move beyond “neuro-normative” standards to embrace vulnerability and different ways of thinking.Expect to learn: How the concept of creative leadership has shifted from a niche marketing term to a central requirement for navigating “poly-crises”, The “Three Loops of Learning” as a framework for operational, strategic, and cultural learning that helps leaders thrive in unfamiliar global markets and How Artificial Intelligence can act as a “cognitive orthotic” for neurodivergent team members and creative leaders.Listen now everywhere on Spotify, Apple Podcast and Amazon MusicTimestamp00:00 Introduction: 30 Years of Friendship at NYU, GW, and Thunderbird04:15 Boots on the Ground in Dubai: Leadership in Turbulent Times05:50 The History and “Fall” of Creative Leadership08:33 Reframe “Poly-Crises” as “Poly-Opportunities”11:02 Forming the Berlin School of Creative Leadership12:23 Innovative Leadership with the Case Study of Apple13:46 Example of Expanding the Concept of Creative Leadership15:34 Creating the Creative Leadership Hub Community18:13 Frameworks: Componential Creativity & The Three Loops of Learning24:22 Leading with Vulnerability: Doug’s Journey Being Neurodivergent 28:39 Neurodivergence: A New Frontier in Business Education31:26 Brené Brown:Power, and the Need for Vulnerability in Modern World35:22 AI: A Tool for Creative Leaders and Neurodivergent SupportVisit our website: OnGlobalLeadership.comFor more info on Doug Guthrie: profguthrie.com

Is China's Rise a Problem to the World?Hi friend, Welcome to On The Ground in China Episode 09!In this episode, Aubrey Martinson and Professor Doug Guthrie explore the deep historical roots of China’s modern economic rise. We revisit the 1922 classic, The Problem of China by British philosopher Bertrand Russell. Written during a time of national chaos, Russell’s book predicted that China would become the world’s greatest power alongside the United States if it could master three things: orderly government, industrial development, and popularized education.A century later, that reality has arrived. The 'G2' partnership, defining the U.S. and China as the world's two largest economies, is currently being strained by trade investigations, a prolonged delay in high-level diplomatic talks, and growing friction over Taiwan.Expect to learn: the significance of the "G2" label and why it matters for Chinese diplomacy, if China’s rise is a problem to the world, and why treating China as a partner rather than an adversary is essential for the stability of the global economy.Listen now everywhere on Spotify, Apple Podcast or Amazon MusicTimestamp00:00 Introduction01:15 The current state of U.S.-China relations: From Xi-Trump meeting to Trade Probes04:00 Tensions in the Taiwan Strait and upcoming U.S. delegation visits06:01 The “Partnership vs. Competition” Debate: Why We Are “Married” to China09:47 Reflections on Bertrand Russell’s The Problem of China (1922)13:00 A brief history of Chinese innovation: From the Silk Road to 142415:10 How Russell predicted a “G2” world over 100 years ago16:30 Is China’s rise a “Problem” to the World?22:33 The vision of young leadership: Deng Xiaoping’s journey to France23:50 The rise of Modern China 26:45 The “Woven Fabric” analogy: The catastrophic cost of decoupling30:00 Education and Culture: Dropping the Illiteracy Rate and Lifting Millions out of PovertyVisit our website: OnGlobalLeadership.comFor more info on Doug Guthrie: profguthrie.com

Hi friend,Welcome to On The Ground in China episode 8! In this episode, Aubrey Martinson and Doug Guthrie discuss the shifting landscape of global politics as the highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and Chairman Xi is delayed. Originally scheduled for beginning of April in Beijing, this diplomatic pause comes at a critical moment when U.S. attention is increasingly pulled toward international conflicts. Is delaying this high-level dialogue a mistake for U.S. economic interests and global stability? Expect to learn: the strategic implications of the Trump-Xi meeting delay, Tim Cook’s recent visit to China and its impact on the tech sector, how OGL’s "boots on the ground" team views China’s reaction to these moving geopolitical pieces. Timestamp00:00 The Importance of U.S-China Relations12:32 Tim Cook's Visit to China22:16 Apple's App Store Rate Change. Who Wins?39:22 Geopolitical Implications of Business Relationships

Hi friend,Welcome to On The Ground in China Episode 7!The upcoming summit between President Trump and President Xi, scheduled for late March to early April 2026, marks a critical pivot point in modern geopolitics. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the relationship between the United States and China remains the most consequential factor in global stability. Will the U.S-China Decoupling Happen in April?Expect to learn in this episode: If the U.S-China "decoupling" is a reality or a myth, how China is leveraging the Middle East conflict to its advantage, how economic strategies are set in China and much more…Timestamp00:00 Introduction03:15 Is it possible for U.S to decouple itself from China?06:26 China’s Reaction to the Middle East situations10:39 Energy Dependency and Geopolitical Strategies13:23 China’s Subtle Approach to Global Influence and Economic Power18:06 China’s Long-Term Economic Vision and Strategy21:11 Our Advice to the Administration21:36 U.S-China Diplomatic Communications23:16 Upcoming U.S-China’s Leaders Meeting and Is the US well-prepared for this talk?24:06 How China Determines its Economic Strategy27:23 Global Relationship and China’s Role in the Global South30:15 How “The Art of The Deal” Might Be Implemented30:54 Our Counsel to Business Clients

Hi friend,Welcome to On The Ground in China Episode 6!Why do we believe that China will outpace the U.S and secure the top economic spot? China now possess a trillion-USD-trade-surplus, a superior manufacturing supply chain and a fostered culture of innovation seen everywhere in the political machinery of Beijing and local governments. Is the “Collapse” narrative that is so popular in Western media about China’s economy really true?Expect to learn: the next EV revolution might be in China as BYD might outpace Tesla, the unique China’s culture of innovation in its political environment, AI development differences between China and the US, internal risks to Chinese development like the real estate bubble, and our strategic counsel for business clients and much more…Visit our website: OnGlobalLeadership.comFor more info on Doug Guthrie: profguthrie.comContact us for sponsorship options: [email protected] Timestamp00:00: Introduction04:05 Prediction on Chinese economy being the largest in the world05:06: Trillion-Dollar Question07:01 BYD is set to surpass Tesla as EV manufacturer09:17 China Cultivates an Effective Culture of Innovation13:23 Differences in AI Development between China and U.S14:45 Zhou Qnfei and Innovation in Manufacturing at Lens16:05 Soft Power and Cultural influences18:57 Policy Planning and Strategic Positioning of China and the Global Economy21:50 Potential Risks to the Chinese Economy22:34 Are the Real Estate Bubble and Consumption Economy Really a Problem?25:28 Instability Caused by Major International Conflicts29:47 How We Are Counseling Our Business Clients To Do Business in China

We are married to China. And tariffs might not be the best solution. The ground is shifting beneath the global economy. In this episode, Doug Guthrie and Aubrey Martinson unpack the recent Supreme Court ruling declaring certain tariffs illegal and what it means for the "G2" relationship between the US and China.Expect to hear: How can officials in China advance their career within the Chinese Communist Party? What US mayors could learn from Chinese local officials about economic development? And a case study in how Chinese youth are remixing Western pop culture with traditional "Fu" (fortune) signs.This podcast also features exclusive on-the-ground footage from our OGL team in China, capturing the unique atmosphere of the Chinese New Year celebrations. Enjoy!

In this episode, Doug joins Aubrey to recount his recent two-week trip to Beijing and Shanghai, highlighting a major push for a new university collaboration between Arizona State University and Chinese partners. The conversation explores a significant "rupture" in global geopolitics, examining Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s strategic visit to China and what it signals about the diminishing trust in U.S. global leadership. Doug also provides deep insights into the resilience of the Chinese economy, the notable "dumping" of U.S. Treasury bonds, and the growing importance of people-to-people exchange as a foundation for cultural and economic stability in an increasingly unstable world. Expect also to learn why an unexpected character in Harry Potter suddenly becomes the centerpiece for Chinese New Year!00:00 : Recent Trip to China and Future of US-China relations through education07:29: The U.S-China Relationship and Global Implications10:44: Mark Carney’s Visit to China15:00 Canada’s Strategic Shift towards China21:30: China’s Economic Rise and Global Partnerships24:30: The Decline of the US dollar33:20: People-to-People Exchange38:03: The Decline of U.S Educational Exchange38:50: Chinese New Year and an unexpected rise of the Slytherin house42:00: The Epstein File and How the World sees the U.S 

Welcome to On Global Leadership's (https://ongloballeadership.com) most recent podcast/video. In this podcast/video, we discuss the relationship between China and Japan. On November 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, suggested in parliament that a hypothetical Chinese attack on island Taiwan could constitute an existential threat to Japan and could trigger a military response from Tokyo. Beijing viewed the remark as a serious provocation and promptly lodged solemn representations and issued strong protests. So far, despite China’s counter-moves and the objections at home and abroad, Takaichi has not retracted her remarks. This podcast/video is heavy in history, but we aspire to give our listeners and right historical context to think about the important geopolitical circumstances that are unfolding right now. 00:00 -- Introduction 1:09 -- Methodological Issues: The Importance of Historical Context3:30- -- What Happened in November: Prime Minister Takaichi's Comments About Taiwan (Heavy Emphasis on Historical Context)12:10 -- Implications of the Comment (for China-Japan Relations and for the World)18:25 -- One China Policy/Principle20:40 -- What Does This Mean for US-China Relations and American Citizens?25:55 -- Chinese and Japanese Citizens' Views of Each Other35:13 -- Closing Out: Commercial Perspctive... What Does This Mean for Companies? (Strategic Perspectives, Companies Advocating for Deep Cooperation and Collaboration...) ENJOY! and looking forward to your comments!

Welcome to episode 2 of On Global Leadership's (https://ongloballeadership.com) podcast. In this podcast/video, we discuss three important topics the OGL Team has been engaged with in recent months. In particular, we discuss OGL’s work on the China’s Consumption Economy, our work on the Rare Earths Economy, and the US actions in Venezuela and the implications of these actions for US-China relations. 00:00 -- Introduction 1:05 -- China’s Consumption Economy16:13- -- China’s Dominance in Rare Earths22:55 -- US Military Action in Venezuela, Implications for US-China Relations33:30 -- Closing outENJOY! and looking forward to your comments!

Welcome to On Global Leadership's (https://ongloballeadership.com) most recent podcast/video. In this podcast/video, we discuss the hot topics OGL has engaged in over the last year and over the last month. In particular, we discuss AI in China and Chinese companies going global. Please watch our podcast/video, and we will look forward to hearing dialogue over these important topics.00:00 -- Introduction to Doug Guthrie, Aubrey Martinson, OGL, and OGL Methodology ("Economic Analysis and Boots on the Ground...")12:40 -- AI in China24:25 -- Chinese Companies Going Global43:15 -- Getting in Trouble with the US Department of State44:05 -- Celebrating Justin Lin's work45:55-END -- Closing out.