Pickers Market

Is this about saving humanity… or winning the AI race? This week, we break down the escalating feud between Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman - now taken to the courtroom in a lawsuit that could reshape the future of OpenAI and send ripple effects across big tech. What started as a nonprofit mission to benefit humanity has turned into a near trillion-dollar powerhouse, and a high-stakes clash over control, ethics, and power.

In this episode, we break down blockbuster Q1 2026 earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet — four of the most powerful companies on the planet reporting in the same afternoon. We cover what AI is doing to margins, cloud growth, and capital spending plans that are now measured in the hundreds of billions. We also unpack why the market cheered Google and punished Meta, even as both posted exceptional results. Then we turn to the Fed. The FOMC voted 8-4 to hold rates steady with the most dissents at a Fed meeting since 1992 and why markets are now pricing in zero cuts for the rest of 2026. We discuss what the unusually divided committee signals about the path ahead and whether the Fed is quietly watching something investors may be overlooking. Finally, a topic flying under the radar: nitrogen. With Middle East conflict disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged since February and the impacts it could have.

Record highs. Cheaper tech stocks. Strong earnings - sounds too good to be true? Big Tech’s pullback has made valuations more compelling, while earnings continue to show resilience and the markets are setting new all-time highs. And despite fears around buying at new highs, history suggests those moments have often rewarded investors. This week we cover: • Is tech actually cheap again? • Valuation - what matters most • Why some tech stocks may look cheaper than European stocks • The surprising case for buying at all-time highs Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little fun! 👉 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for weekly market insights.

We’ve got a new face on the pod - welcome our Investment Analyst, John! Earnings season is off to a strong start, with banks leading the way - delivering standout results and pointing to continued resilience from the US consumer. Analysts are expecting double-digit earnings growth for Q1 2026. But here’s the disconnect: Consumer sentiment just hit its lowest level in over 70 years - below even the GFC, COVID, and the dot-com bubble era. So what’s going on? We break down: • Key takeaways from early bank earnings • The resilience (and cracks) in the US consumer • Whether earnings expectations are too optimistic • The growing gap between market reality and consumer perception • Why sentiment can serve as a contrarian indicator And of course - we wrap it up with some fun: Meta is introducing an AI twin of CEO Zuckerberg for employees… so naturally we ask: Is it time for an AI version of our beloved Gradient Investments president? 😄

Episode 100. We made it. In this milestone episode, we look back through the full run of Picker's Market — the predictions that aged well, the ones that didn't, and the wild market moments we documented in real time. From Lisa calling gold's massive run in January 2025, to living through Liberation Day volatility in real time, to watching DeepSeek blindside the entire market — it's all on the table. Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber — plus a round of 2 Truths & a Lie: Picker's Market Edition.

The first quarter of 2026 is officially in the books and it didn’t come quietly. Markets delivered a volatile start to the year, with the S&P 500 down around 4% year-to-date despite a massive rebound day to close out the quarter. Meanwhile, oil prices surged above $100, Treasury yields climbed, and the market narrative continues to shift quickly. We also touch on how volatility impacts markets and structured note pricing and where opportunities may rise beneath the surface. And of course - we wrap it up with some fun: Spring is here, Easter is around the corner, and the team shares their seasonal traditions, and whether Minnesota spring lives up to the hype 🌷 Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little fun!

The Fed takes center stage today — and AI is stealing the spotlight right alongside it. In this episode, we break down the Federal Reserve's rate decision, why markets aren't expecting much movement for the rest of the year, and whether the Fed is quietly keeping one eye on oil prices even when they say they're not. We also dive deep into AI — from the Citrini Research report that kicked off the software selloff, to AI agents that are starting to act rather than just answer, to the real story on job displacement and which workers should actually be paying attention. Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little fun!

Oil markets have been on a wild ride lately. Prices briefly surged toward $120 per barrel before retreating sharply, marking one of the largest one-day reversals on record and highlighting just how volatile energy markets can become during geopolitical conflicts. In this episode, we break down what’s driving the recent oil price swings and why events in the Middle East - responsible for roughly one-third of global oil production - can quickly ripple through global energy markets. We also discuss the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. We explore how higher oil prices act like a tax on consumers, their potential impact on inflation and economic growth, and which industries feel the pressure most - including airlines, transportation and consumer sectors. We also look at whether companies can pass higher costs on to consumers and whether there may also be winners during periods of energy volatility.

Global conflicts are back at the center of financial markets. After initially shrugging off geopolitical tensions earlier in the week, markets quickly reversed as volatility surged. In this episode, we discuss how markets historically react during geopolitical crises, why oil supply and key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz matter for the global economy, and which sectors tend to benefit during periods of conflict - as well as which sectors typically face headwinds. We also look at whether Treasuries and gold still serve as safe havens in times of rising geopolitical uncertainty. Finally, we examine the viral “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” report from Citrini Research, which explores a hypothetical future where rapid AI adoption disrupts jobs, consumption, and the broader economy.

This week, we break down the Supreme Court’s big ruling on U.S. tariffs - what it means for the $170 billion already collected, how the effective tariff rate drops, and why markets barely reacted. We also dig into the next steps: can tariffs return under different rulesets, and what that means for investors and portfolios. From a market perspective, we break down how this ruling shifts trade uncertainty, influences inflation outlooks, and what it could mean for the US consumer and companies. We also touch on key takeaways from the State of the Union speech. Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, Tyler Ellegard & Lisa Schreiber for a practical discussion on markets, trade policy, and portfolio positioning - always with a touch of fun!

We’ve entered the Year of the Fire Horse 🔥🐎 This week, we break down whether the Lunar New Year market effect is real and where it shows up most. We also dig into a surprising stat: older generations now spend more time on their phones than younger ones - is it productivity, changing habits, or doomscrolling? On the markets side, we tackle the AI-driven selloff, why it’s spreading beyond just software stocks, and why investors are hesitant to buy the dip. Is this AI paralysis, cognitive overload, or the start of a true stock-picker’s market? We also discuss some stock picks unfairly caught in the selloff that could be positioned for a strong rebound. We wrap things up with some fun: a Pokémon card that sold for $16.5 million?! We ask: what hidden treasure might be sitting in your basement or attic that could be worth some serious money some day?

In this episode, we break down the sharp equity rotation sparked by rising AI disruption risk, with software and other data-intensive industries selling off across regions. The MSCI World Momentum Index delivered its 5th largest sell-off versus the market since 1995, while volatility gauges flashed warning signs beneath the surface. What does this all mean – we break it down! We’re joined by Chad Roesler, Executive Vice President at Gradient Financial Group and with the firm since the very beginning. Chad shares his personal path with the firm, how Gradient has evolved over time, and how that long-term perspective shapes the way he thinks about markets today. Chad also sprinkles in hard-earned wisdom on stock picking, shares his thoughts on “green money” - including annuities and life insurance - and adds a few fun personal insights into what and how he likes to watch sports.

In this special edition episode, we’re joined by the one and only Brian Belski to unveil Gradient Investment’s newly introduced SMID Cap Select portfolio. We break down why small and mid-cap stocks may be entering a new leadership phase, how the portfolio was designed, and where Brian sees the most compelling opportunities today. We also dive into Brian’s remarkable career, his framework for identifying long-term winners, and a few stock ideas straight from the legend himself. 👉 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for weekly market insights.

Fed policy is back in focus with the announcement of a new Fed chair – but what does it mean for interest rates, the bond market, and your portfolio? In this episode, we break down Fed leadership headlines, rate cut expectations, bond market risks, and how stocks, precious metals, and the U.S. dollar could respond in 2026. We also discuss historical market patterns, interest rate volatility, and recent portfolio moves in silver. …and of course we share our Super Bowl plans — because even serious market talk deserves a little game day vibe! 🏈 Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, Tyler Ellegard and Lisa Schreiber for a practical discussion on markets, the Fed and precious metals - always with a touch of fun!

The investment word of the year so far is “broadening”. In this episode, we break down what’s driving expanding market breadth in early 2026 and whether it’s sustainable. We discuss why earnings growth ultimately drives markets, how declining correlations in mega-cap tech are reshaping opportunities and what market broadening could mean for sectors, styles, and portfolio positioning. We wrap up with a nod to the Minnesota winter chill and share what the team has planned for Valentine’s Day! ❤️ Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for a practical discussion on market breadth, earnings trends, and equity positioning in 2026 - always with a touch of fun!

In this episode, we break down alternatives investing, including private markets, and highlight Gradient Investments new Private Wealth Series. We explain why Gradient introduced this offering, how it expands access to alternative strategies, and what makes it different from other options available today. You’ll hear what problems alternatives are designed to solve, how they can complement traditional stocks and bonds, and the key benefits and risks investors should understand — including diversification, correlation, liquidity, valuation, and suitability. We close out the episode with some real-world extremes: -25° in Minnesota. Even for Minnesotans — is this officially too cold?

In this episode, we explore what history suggests about year-four market performance, how past multi-year rallies have typically unfolded, and why historical context still matters—even when the future never looks exactly the same. We also examine Wall Street’s modest return expectations for 2026, revisit seasonal market myths like “as January goes, so goes the year,” and discuss what early earnings reports may be signaling about market breadth and leadership. Plus, we lighten things up with the team’s New Year’s resolutions (or lack thereof) and take a reality check on why most resolutions fail—and when “Quitters Day” usually arrives. Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for thoughtful market insights, perspective and a little fun along the way.

After three consecutive strong market years—2023 (+26%), 2024 (+24%), and 2025 (+17%)—investors are asking the uncomfortable question: can markets really keep going? In this episode, we revisit the turbulence of 2025 month by month and explore what it may be signaling for 2026. From fragile consensus beliefs and crowded positioning to AI bubble fears, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical flashpoints, we examine where markets may be most vulnerable—and where opportunity could present itself. Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little stock picking fun.

In this holiday special, we break down the biggest market surprises, key investing lessons, and what clients are asking as we head into 2026 - then switch things up with a festive chat, sharing our holiday plans, family traditions and favorite foods. Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, Lisa Schreiber and special guest Mike Binger for the Pickers Market Holiday Special! This is our final episode of 2025 — but don’t worry, the Pickers Market Podcast will be back the first week of 2026. Until then, leave us a like, share your thoughts in the comments, and subscribe for weekly market insights.

This week, we break down the upcoming Federal Reserve decision as markets price in a 90% chance of a 25 bps cut. We cover what’s already priced in, what could still surprise investors and what matters for the markets. We round things out with a bit of Minnesota winter talk — the cold, the snow, and the everyday quirks that come with living through a season that tests even the toughest Midwesteners!

Tyler Ellegard is the President of Gradient Advisors, LLC (Arden Hills, MN 877-885-0508), an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Gradient Advisors, LLC and its advisors do not render tax, legal, or accounting advice. All matters discussed during the show are for informational purposes only. Each individual situation will vary, and the opinions expressed here may not apply to everyone. All ideas and information should be discussed with a qualified financial professional prior to implementation. No ideas or information presented in this show should be considered financial, tax, legal, or accounting advice. The opinions expressed by Tyler Ellegard are solely his own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Gradient Advisors, LLC. Some of the securities or investment products discussed on this podcast may be held by Tyler Ellegard in his own accounts.

Dive into one of the most fascinating — and controversial — themes in markets right now: AI circularity. As Big Tech keeps breaking earnings records, a new question is emerging — is all this AI spending fueling innovation… or just creating a closed money loop between the tech giants? With record Q3 earnings and billion-dollar AI partnerships making headlines, investors are wondering: Is this the next big growth wave — or a Déjà Vu of the dot.com circularity days?

Dive into one of the biggest weeks for markets with us. With a Fed rate cut likely and the biggest names in tech — Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple — set to report their quarterly earnings, this could be the make-or-break moment for market momentum. We’ll unpack what a Fed cut really means without fresh jobs data, whether AI spending is living up to the hype, and why investors are starting to question if we’re heading for another bubble — or just the next leg higher. Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for a look at what’s driving markets this week — the Fed and Big Tech earnings.

Dive into the latest market hot topics! From the dominance of mega-cap stocks to the ongoing government shutdown, and earnings surprises that could shake the market — we break it all down. Plus, hear why Jamie Dimon’s “cockroach” warning has investors paying attention. Stay informed, stay ahead. Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker and Lisa Schreiber for a take on mega-caps, market risks, and earnings surprises — plus what investors should really watch beyond the headlines.

The team dives into gold’s record-breaking run past $4,000 an ounce. They unpack what’s driving the rally, how central banks are reshaping global reserves, and whether gold’s momentum can continue — or if it’s due for a pullback. Plus, a look at gold vs. Bitcoin and how investors can think about safe-haven assets in today’s markets. Join Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little fun in this shiny new episode of the Picker’s Market Podcast.

Lisa is back from vacation and kicks things off with a recap of her trip – plus her perspective on the Elite Advisor Forum. From there, the team dives into the government shutdown, how it compares to past shutdowns, and what it could mean for market performance in the weeks ahead. More importantly, we discuss how the lack of economic data could complicate the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision later this month. Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little fun.

The Gradient Investments Elite Advisor Forum was held last week and the team recapped the conference and the keynote speakers that were in attendance. The team then broke down the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the implications that could have on mortgage rates and the future of the housing market. Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and David Aamot for markets, insights, and a little fun.

The Fed takes center stage as markets price in an almost certain September rate cut. The team breaks down what’s driving expectations, how the labor market is shaping the Fed’s path forward, and what sectors could shine—or lag—in an easing cycle. Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little fun.

The idiom of don’t fight the Fed has returned. The team discusses the weak jobs report and the markets positive reaction to the release, the impact the CPI report could have on future rate cuts, and a new segment called “The Watchlist”. Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little stock picking fun.

September and October are the spookiest months for stocks. We unpack the September Effect, why October can both scare and reward, and what investors should do instead of sitting out. Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little fall fun. In this episode: • The September Effect — why stocks often stumble in September • Jobs reports, Fed moves, and fundamentals vs. psychology • The October Effect — crashes and volatility • How retail investors and seasonality can influence market quirks • Investor mistakes to avoid during the spooky season • Spaghetti Wall — fall guilty pleasures and pumpkin spice vibes with the team

ETFs now outnumber stocks — innovation or overload? We break down what this means for investors, plus preview Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings. Join Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber for markets, insights, and a little fun.

On Episode 69 of the Pickers Market, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber break down an earnings season where companies beating and raising guidance barely moved higher, while any misses were punished harshly. We also discuss why the market reacts this way, how impressive the broad strength in earnings has been despite tariffs and a weakening consumer, and finish with a look at the difference between day trading and long-term investing.

On Episode 68 of Picker’s Market, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber kick things off with some fun around Taylor Swift’s newly announced album, The Life of a Showgirl, before diving into a deep look at market concentration. We break down just how dominant the top 7 and top 5 stocks are compared to the other 493 in the S&P 500—and even the Russell 2000. Then we turn to buybacks, cash sitting on the sidelines, and what it all could mean for future market moves.

On Episode 67 of Pickers Market, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and our summer interns Sam Rathmanner and Tony Yocum mix college chatter with market analysis. We kick things off with Sam’s plans for sophomore year and Tony gearing up for his senior year before diving into Friday’s jobs report and the big downward revisions to prior months. From there, we break down the shifting market expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September. We wrap up by reflecting on the internship experience and Tyler shares a few stories from his own college internship days.

On Episode 62, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber discuss their thoughts on the first half of 2025 as well as their outlooks for the remainder of the year and how weakening economic data doesn’t necessarily mean the stock market needs to decline, and much more!

On Episode 61, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Kyle Bergacker, and Lisa Schreiber discuss the news of the US joining Israel in attacking Iran and the markets muted reaction, the hype on Perplexity AI and the continued appetite from investors for innovative tech companies, and much more!

On Episode 60, Kyle Bergacker, David Aamot and Lisa Schreiber discuss the rise and the race of robotaxis, why tariffs haven’t shown up in inflation yet, and a stock quiz so odd, you’ll swear they made it up!

On Episode 59, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Kyle Bergacker are joined by Gradient Investments Intern Sam Rathmanner to discuss the labor market, college graduate unemployment, college tuition, tennis, and much more!

On Episode 58, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Kyle Bergacker discuss the alterations made to the Gradient Contrarian Choice portfolio, the leadership in the market rebound, stocks they would trade, hold, and skip, and much more!

On Episode 57, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Lisa Schreiber, and Kyle Bergacker discuss the end of the US Penny, how retail investors are getting smarter, debate whether some companies are the real deal or just market-fiction and much more!

On Episode 56, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Lisa Schreiber, and Kyle Bergacker discuss the US debt and potential impacts, Magnificent 7 earnings and valuation versus the rest of the S&P 500, moving into college, and much more!

On Episode 55, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, Lisa Schreiber, and Kyle Bergacker discuss the recent trade announcements with the UK and China, the challenging spot the Federal Reserve is in should tariffs affect prices and employment, Timberwolves playoff run, and much more!

On Episode 54, Tyler Ellegard Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber welcome new portfolio manager Kyle Bergacker to the team and discuss recent trend in earnings, Spring plans, and much more!

In this episode, Tyler Ellegard, Lisa Schreiber, and David Aamot break down why airfare is cheaper today than 15 years ago, share key takeaways from earnings season, and go head-to-head in a stock draft to pick their top market plays.

On Episode 52, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber create a playoff bracket for the Magnificent 7 and chose a winner for the year, as well as discuss diversification amidst recent market volatility and varying degrees of performance for asset classes, and much more!

On Episode 51 of the Pickers Market, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl and Lisa Schreiber discuss the recent market swings, Ray Dalio’s comments about the world order and much more!

On Episode 50 of the Pickers Market, Tyler Ellegard, Jeremy Bryan, Keith Gangl, Michael Binger, and Lisa Schreiber discuss Jeremy’s new venture and the memories the team has had over the years. They also discuss recent tariff news, and much more!

On Episode 49 of the Pickers Market, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber discuss "Liberation Day", potential tariffs, Q1 recap and so much more!

On Episode 48 of the Pickers Market, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber discuss US companies share buyback strategies, the latest financial fraud scandal and the most interesting finance villains!

On Episode 47 of the Pickers Market, Tyler Ellegard, Keith Gangl, and Lisa Schreiber discuss their thoughts on the recent market correction, stocks they are finding opportunistic, what to do during a market correction, and much more!