Propenomix with Adam Lawrence

Is the UK property market crashing, or is it just geographically divided?  ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven*** In this week's Propenomix Sunday Supplement live version, I dive deep into the unvarnished reality of the UK economy and housing market. I break down the massive 27.4% gap between property listing prices and actual sale prices, the horrifying cratering of the UK construction sector, and exactly why it now costs £76,000 more to build a house than it did in 2020. Plus, I look at the seismic shock of the local elections - what does a Nigel Farage/Reform UK surge mean for landlords, rent controls, and the bond markets? If you are a property investor, developer, or just trying to navigate UK interest rates and inflation, this is the only macroeconomic breakdown you need this week. 👇 SUBSCRIBE & DROP YOUR QUESTIONS IN THE COMMENTS! 👇 In this 1-Hour Live Stream, I cover: Trumpwatch: The US Court blocks global tariffs & the UK local election fallout. The Reality of the High Street: Why 46% of homes are withdrawing unsold. Halifax House Price Index: The brutal North-South property divide. Macro Data: S&P PMIs flash red for construction as supply pipelines dry up. Gilts & Swaps: Why "Higher for Longer" interest rates are locked in. The Deep Dive: How political shifts will impact your property portfolio and EPC illusions. ⏱️ Video Chapters / Timestamps 00:00 - Intro: Welcome to the Sunday Supplement Live! 02:15 - Trumpwatch: Local Election Shocks & Trade War Updates 12:30 - UK Property Market: 637k Listings & The "Hopium" Epidemic 20:45 - The 27.4% Pricing Delusion: Why Half the Market is Failing 28:00 - Halifax House Price Index: Real Terms Shrinkage & The North-South Divide 36:15 - The PMI Horror Show: UK Construction is Cratering 45:00 - Supply Chain Crisis: The £76k "New Build Tax" & Material Costs 51:30 - Gilts, Swaps & Interest Rates: Are We Stuck at 4.5%? 55:20 - The Deep Dive: How Politics & Populism Will Impact Landlords 1:00:00 - Live Q&A and Final Thoughts #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Business #Economics #Markets ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven***

  Episode Title: Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks & The Death of Pricing Hopium Show Notes: Upcoming Event: Before we dive into today's macroeconomic breakdown, a quick reminder: Navigating a market devoid of "pricing hopium" requires airtight analysis. My next Property Business Workshop is coming up, and we are focusing entirely on Due Diligence. If you want to stop guessing and start running the real numbers on your acquisitions, secure your spot now: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven Welcome back to the Propenomix Podcast. In this episode, we are breaking down my latest article and deep-dive: "Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks, and The Death of Pricing Hopium." We are officially in an era where sentiment and headlines don't pay the bills - structural data, deep economic analysis, and pragmatism do. Today, we cut through the noise to explore the macroeconomic drivers actually influencing UK property returns right now. We discuss what I refer to as "Whisky Carrots" (the genuine, mature incentives and opportunities in the market) versus the "Tech Sticks" (regulatory pressures, EPC targets, and compliance data forcing landlords' hands). Most importantly, we dissect the "Death of Pricing Hopium" - why the era of waiting for zero-interest-rate valuations to magically return is over, and why sellers and investors must finally face the reality of the current economic cycle. If you want to make investment decisions with confidence rather than fear, grab a notebook. It's time to look at the real numbers. CHAPTERS & TIMESTAMPS: Introduction & Cutting Through the Property Headlines The Macro Landscape: Inflation, Yields, & The Reality of the Economy What are "Whisky Carrots"? (Finding Genuine Value & Mature Incentives) The "Tech Sticks": EPCs, New Regulations, and The Cost of Non-Compliance The Death of Pricing Hopium: Why Sellers Must Face Reality Now Capital Flows, Commodities, & Global Macro Trends into 2027 Adapting Your Property Strategy (Hold, Fold, or Refinance?) Audience Q&A: 4% Mortgages, Margins, & Portfolio Restructuring Final Thoughts & How to Read the Sunday Supplement RESOURCES & LINKS: 🎟️ Join the next Property Business Workshop (Focus: Due Diligence): Bulletproof your acquisition strategy by booking your ticket here: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven 📖 Read the original article: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adamglawrence_propertymarket-macroeconomics-ukhousing-ugcPost-7456620611306606592-7_aZ  ✉️ Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://propenomix.com/ 💼 Connect with Adam on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ ABOUT ADAM LAWRENCE: Adam is the founder of Propenomix, author of the acclaimed Sunday Supplements economic newsletter, and host of the Propenomix Podcast. With a corporate background in wealth management and a property career that started in earnest in 2011, Adam has been involved in over 850+ UK property deals and portfolios. His approach blends real economics, structural data, and practical investor experience to empower you to build strategies that align with real capital markets. Enjoyed the episode? Please hit "Follow" on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen, and consider leaving a rating and review to help spread the word of Propenomix.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed , Brent crude has blasted past $100 a barrel , and the Bank of England has slammed the brakes on rate cuts . Welcome to another essential reality check on this week's Propenomix Supplement. We are stripping away the mainstream noise to look at exactly how global geopolitics, staggering private credit failures, and a flatlining UK economy are impacting your portfolio right now. The facts have changed, and your strategy needs to change with them. What we cover in this week's episode: Geopolitics & Trumponomics: Tariffs are back on the menu with a maximum threat of 15% . Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict is sending European wholesale gas prices up nearly 100% on the month . The UK Property Market: We've hit a 10-year high for March listings . Transactions are functional , but the glut of supply has led to the longest average time to sell since 2013 . Bond Market Bloodbath: The flagship 10-year gilt is threatening the 5% yield mark for the first time since the financial crisis . We discuss why you must stress-test your debt exits at 6% to 6.25% . Deep Dive: The £1.7bn MFS Collapse: A forensic look at the Market Financial Solutions administration . We break down the "double pledging" allegations , the massive institutional contagion , and the incoming fire sale of 250 Prime Central London properties . Bank of England's 9-0 Hold: Why the MPC voted unanimously to hold the base rate at 3.75% , the BoE's expectation that inflation will bounce back to 3.5% , and the very real threat of stagflation as GDP crawls at 0.1% . The Labour Market & Construction: Why self-employment plummeted by a staggering 242k in 2025 , how businesses are turning to automation instead of hiring , and why the 1.5m homes goal is an utter pipedream as planning apps fall again . Generation Rent's EPC Fantasy: Breaking down the new £10,000 EPC cost cap and why backdoor rent controls will simply drive landlords to sell up and buy 5% government bonds instead . This is not a time for marginal deals . Tune in to get the raw data and the macroeconomic perspective you need to defend your portfolio and spot the generational acquisition opportunities hiding in the distress . Listen now on all major platforms.

We are officially in a per-capita recession, meaning the average person in the UK is getting steadily poorer, despite the headline vanity metrics trying to suggest otherwise . In this week's agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup, we cut through the noise of the mainstream headlines to deliver the unvarnished reality of the market . Mortgage rates are all over the place, with the potential of rates being cut in the US while being raised in the UK . As Mohamed El-Erian points out, "We are navigating a global economy that is structurally different, not just cyclically delayed. The old playbooks will not work" . If your business model is built on waiting for cheaper debt, you need to change the model or move on . Grab your black armbands, because we are diving deep . In this episode, we cover: Macro Headwinds & Trumponomics: We discuss the ongoing war, the intense volatility in the oil market, and the US Trade Representative's investigation into 60 major economies for "forced labour" and "manufacturing overcapacity" . The Illusion of Growth: We break down the latest GDP Growth report, which printed 0% for growth in January, and explain why the 0.1% uptick in Q4 2025 masks underlying weakness . Property Market Reality Check: A deep dive into the RICS Residential Market Report and Hometrack's Rental Market Index . We explore why rental supply is still 23% below pre-pandemic levels and why the Buy to Let sector represented just 8.4% of gross mortgage advances in Q4 2025 . The Ground Rent Farce: We expose how the proposed £250 cap on ground rents will inadvertently deliver an estimated £8.7 billion windfall to property investors rather than helping owner-occupiers . Demand Support & The SME Crisis: An analysis of the LPDF and Savills report on introducing demand support, and why SME developers are capturing an increasingly small share of the new build market . Gilts & Swaps: The 5-year gilt yield closed the week at 4.35%, and we explain why the next move the Bank of England makes might actually be a rate hike . Links & Resources: Our next Property Business Workshop is selling fast! Join us on Wednesday 22nd April in Central Manchester to discuss tax, risk, deal structuring, and exit options . Secure your tickets here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten Keep Calm, ALWAYS listen to or read the Supplement, and Carry On .

In this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says. We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and the radical 50% threshold for commonhold conversion, dissect the government's £39bn social housing pledge, and analyze why London's Build-to-Rent sector is facing a construction "cardiac arrest." Plus, we explore why "capital allocators" see yields differently than the rest of us. In This Episode: 🌍 The Macro View: Trumponomics & Trade Wars How UK firms are reacting to US tariff threats and the rise of the "Anti-Coercion Instrument." Why 21% of UK SMEs now rate US tariffs as their #1 economic concern. 📈 The Market Data: Listings, Lags & Regional Winners Chris Watkin's Stats: A 10-year record for reductions and the return of the "listings glut." Zoopla Index: Why the North West is surging (+3.5%) while London stalls, and the "discipline" dominating Southern sellers. Scotland's Warning: Evidence of landlord consolidation and the 8% LBTT sting. ⚖️ Legislative Deep Dive: The Commonhold Revolution The "Feudal" End: The ban on new leasehold flats and the £30k fines enforcing it. The 50% Threshold: How a simple majority could drag an entire block into commonhold (and what happens to the dissenters). Ground Rent Caps: The £250 cap, the 40-year sunset clause, and the abolition of forfeiture. 🏗️ Sector Spotlight: Social Housing, Co-Living & BTR Social Housing: The truth about the £39bn fund and the "free money" 0.1% loans for providers. The S106 Emergency: Why the "clearing service" is really a distressed asset register. Co-Living Goes Mainstream: Why Earls Court is betting big on co-living and the shift to on-site affordable housing. Build-to-Rent Reality Check: The "delivery lag"—why completions are up 13% but starts have collapsed by 80% in London. 🧠 The Propenomix Philosophy Yields vs. Growth: Understanding the mindset difference between "BRR hustlers" and institutional "capital allocators." Key Quotes: "The 'London Premium' has become a 'London Penalty.' Construction costs in the capital are eye-watering, and investors are voting with their wallets." "The government is trying to make commonhold robust... but the reliance on members voting for budgets fills me with dread." Links: Adam's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Daily PropenomAIx Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/7392088970785878016/ Propenomix YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence Weekly Sunday Supplement Newsletter: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/

Is your investment strategy built for the reality of 2026, or are you holding onto a "zombie" portfolio? Summary: In this deep-dive episode, Adam Lawrence breaks down the convergence of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory hammers hitting the UK property market. From the "Trumpomics" ripple effect to the government's 152-page Warm Homes Plan, we analyze why the gap between the North and South is widening into a canyon and what the 84% collapse in London construction starts means for your exit strategy. What we cover this week: Trumpomics & Global Yields: How US tariffs and Arctic cooperation are jerking the UK gilt and swap markets. The 2026 Property Snapshot: Real-time stats on the "glut" of New Year listings and the 22% gap between asking and sold prices. EPC C by 2030: A brutal look at the Warm Homes Plan. Is the £10,000 cap realistic, or will it force a mass landlord exodus? The Green Mortgage Myth: Why the 7.5 bps "green discount" is a rounding error, not an incentive. London's Construction Cliff Edge: Analyzing the "Molly Report"—why private construction has plummeted 84% and the "mid-market trap" for £1,200/sq. ft. apartments. Regional Winners: Why Northern Ireland, Scotland, and the Northwest are seeing 90%+ of homes increase in value while the South stagnates. Timestamps: [ 00:00 ] – Intro: "Show me the incentive, I'll show you the outcome." [ 02:08 ] – Trumpomics, Greenland, and the impact on UK yields. [ 05:15 ] – UK Property Market Stats: The 2026 Week 2 breakdown. [ 11:25 ] – Macro Outlook: Unemployment, wage growth, and the 5.7% prediction. [ 33:30 ] – Deep Dive: The EPC "Warm Homes Plan" and the 2030 deadline. [ 48:40 ] – The Bank of England's take on Green Mortgages. [ 55:05 ] – The London Development Collapse: "Zombie sites" and the construction cliff. [ 01:03:20 ] – Zupla 2025 Analysis: The Great Regional Decoupling. [ 01:12:40 ] – Outro & Upcoming Manchester Workshop details. Links & Resources: Next Workshop: Property Business Workshop (Manchester - Wed 22nd April). Book here: www.tinyurl.com/pbwten  Follow Adam on Socials: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/ Subscribe to the Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/ Keywords: UK Property Market 2026, EPC Regulations 2030, Warm Homes Plan, Buy to Let Strategy, UK Inflation, Green Mortgages, London Property Crash, Propenomix, Adam Lawrence, Real Estate Investing UK.

The Media is Watching Greenland. I'm Watching the Bond Yields. While the headlines are hyperventilating over Trump's rhetoric on acquiring Greenland or the "generosity" of Venezuelan oil deals, they are missing the actual story. The structural reality is far more significant: a $200bn direct intervention in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and a hard cap on credit card interest. This isn't just populism; it's market interference of the highest order. And frankly, the Gilts are loving it. Back home, the "Zombie Apocalypse" has officially arrived—at least according to the Resolution Foundation. But before you panic, look at the maths. We are staring down the barrel of 0.2% real household disposable income growth and a demographic cliff where deaths finally outnumber births. The era of cheap money and easy capital growth is over. 2026 is about survival, defensive yields, and cash flow. In this week's Macroscope and Deep Dive, we strip away the "realistic optimism" marketing fluff to look at the cold, hard data: Trumponomics & Market Interference: Why the $200bn MBS purchase is a "crisis move" in non-crisis times, and why US yield compression is the only thing saving UK borrowers right now. The "Zombie" Economy: The Resolution Foundation calls it a "mild zombie apocalypse," but with insolvencies at 2011 highs and stagnant wages, the "reallocation" of labour looks a lot like pain for the private sector. Savills' 2026 Outlook: They're predicting a 3% base rate and a return to "normality." I break down why "normality" now means high regulation, zero supply, and why you shouldn't bank on capital growth to bail out a bad yield. The Density Delusion: The Policy Exchange wants "Gentle Density" and mansion blocks. A lovely idea, until it hits the reality of the 18-metre rule and the Building Safety Act. The Takeaway: If your strategy relies on a V-shaped recovery or a return to the low-rate environment of 2021, you are fighting the maths. 2026 is a year for the brave, but only if the numbers stack up on day one. The Next Step: If you want to professionalise your portfolio and stop relying on luck, join the workshop. This is where we do the work the industry ignores. Join here: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine Challenge: Forward this episode to your broker or investment partner. Ask them if their 2026 projections account for a 0.2% growth in tenant disposable income. If they don't have an answer, you need to talk.

Is it time to submit to the AI overlords? In this first full supplement of 2026, Adam Lawrence kicks off the year with a unique experiment: he trained an AI on a year's worth of Propynomics content to predict the macro and property landscape for 2026. Does the AI know Adam better than he knows himself? Tune in to hear where they agree - and the critical areas where Adam vehemently disagrees (especially on rents!). We also tackle the return of "Trump-onomics" and the concept of "Net Wars" , alongside a deep dive into the UK's "Inclusive Wealth" accounts  - proof that the economy hasn't fully recovered from 2020, even if GDP says otherwise. Plus, we break down the latest Nationwide House Price Index , Chris Watkin's data on why volume - not price - is the new metric of health , and why a "flat" market might be your best buying opportunity this year. In this episode: Trump-onomics: Venezuela, oil prices, and the "Putinization" of US foreign policy. Market Health: Why transaction volume is beating price inflation (feat. data from Chris Watkin). The "Real" Economy: Why ONS Inclusive Wealth data shows we are still burning the furniture to heat the house. Deep Dive (2026 Predictions): Adam vs. The AI. House Prices: Why Adam predicts +1.5% while the consensus says higher. Interest Rates: Why the Base Rate might stick at 3.5%. Rents: The AI predicts a 6.5% surge, but Adam explains why affordability will cap it at 3.5%. Political Outlook: Will Starmer survive 2026? Plus, the looming "concrete vs. countryside" civil war. Links: Join the Property Business Workshop (Jan 22): tinyurl.com/pbwnine  

Are you ready for "The Golden Quarter"? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the critical window of opportunity opening up for property investors between now and May 1st, 2026. Adam Lawrence reviews the economic landscape at the close of 2025 and explains why the upcoming implementation of the Renters' Rights Act is triggering a strategic sell-off among amateur landlords. We break down the macroeconomic factors driving these changes—from the surprising resilience of "Trumpomics" and US GDP growth to the stark reality of the UK's rental market and the "construction crisis" in Scotland .   In this episode, you will learn: The "Golden Quarter" Explained: Why the period leading up to the full implementation of the Renters' Rights Act in May 2026 is creating a unique buying window for professional investors .   Trumpomics & The Global Economy: How a 4.3% US GDP growth, driven by AI investment and tariffs, is rippling through to the UK economy and tech investment .   UK Market Reality Check: A look at the 2025 stats, including 1.7 million listings, rising fall-throughs, and why Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) is down despite GDP growth .   The "Rachel" Case Study: A hypothetical look at why high-earning, "accidental" landlords may be forced to exit the market due to new possession grounds and regulatory fatigue .   The 5 Ingredients of the Golden Quarter: Understanding how FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), MEES regulations, and regulatory risk are reshaping return expectations .   Key Quote:   "Be greedy only when others are fearful." — Adam Lawrence (quoting Warren Buffett) on the mindset for professional investors in 2026 .   Timestamps: 00:00 – Market Forecast & The 22% Price Surge   02:22 – Trumpomics: US GDP & Trade Wars   11:15 – UK Property Market Review: 2025 Statistics   24:36 – The Scottish Housing Crisis   36:03 – Deep Dive: What is "The Golden Quarter"?   52:40 – The 5 Ingredients Driving the Landlord Exodus   Tune in to understand why the amateur exodus might be your professional opportunity. Buy workshop tickets: www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine

The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026. From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—and what that means for your portfolio. We also discuss the new realities of "Trumpomics," the "Output Trap," and why yield-chasing in London is becoming a dangerous game. Key Topics Discussed: The BoE Rate Cut: Analyzing the split decision to cut to 3.75% and why the "Hawks" and "Doves" are divided. The Unemployment Trap: Unemployment breaks the 5% barrier (5.1%) while youth unemployment hits a staggering 16%. Trump 2.0 Trade Deals: How the UK is navigating "preferred partner" status and what 10% tariffs mean for manufacturing. Property Market Stats: Week 49 data shows sales are up, but fall-throughs remain sticky at 25.8%. Rental Market Warning: Why rental stock outside London is surging, and why investors must target 7-9% gross yields (North/Midlands) to survive high mortgage costs. The Private vs. Public Gap: Public sector pay is up 7.6%, while the private sector has shed nearly a quarter of a million jobs. Strategic Takeaway: The era of passive capital growth is paused. For 2026, the game is about active management and cash flow. We discuss why tenant retention is now your primary risk mitigation strategy and why mortgage rates for limited companies will likely settle in the mid-5% range. Buy your workshop tickets - Early Bird still available! www.tinyurl.com/pbwnine

Episode Summary: In this pivotal episode of Propenomix, Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK's homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and strategy. As we approach the festive season, the conversation begins with Homes for Christmas - not just as a sentiment, but as a critical look at the UK's housing failure. We then pivot to the global stage to analyze how US economic policy could dictate your mortgage rates, before landing on the ultimate actionable guide: The 2026 Property Playbook. What You Will Learn in This Episode: 1. The £2.8bn Homelessness Crisis: A System at Breaking Point The figures are sobering. The cost of temporary accommodation and the management of homelessness has ballooned to an estimated £2.8 billion, a burden that is breaking local council budgets and failing the most vulnerable in society. But beyond the headlines, what are the structural failures driving this? The Supply Deficit: Why the current planning system and development incentives are failing to produce the social housing stock we actually need. The "Homes for Christmas" Reality: We discuss the human cost of the crisis during the holidays and the initiatives trying to bridge the gap. The Landlord's Role: With the private rental sector (PRS) under pressure from regulation and tax changes, are private landlords being pushed out exactly when they are needed most to help house the nation? Adam breaks down the relationship between government policy and the shrinking supply of rental homes. 2. Trumpnomics: The Global Macro Effect on UK Property Economics does not happen in a vacuum. With the specter (or reality) of Donald Trump's economic policies - "Trumpnomics" - returning to the fore, UK investors need to pay attention. The US economy is the engine of the world, and its decisions on tariffs, trade protectionism, and debt drive global bond yields. Inflation & Interest Rates: If Trumpnomics fuels US inflation through aggressive fiscal stimulus and tariffs, how long before that inflationary pressure crosses the Atlantic? We analyze the correlation between US Treasuries and UK Gilts - and what that means for your mortgage rates in 2025 and 2026. Trade Wars & Materials: How protectionist policies could impact the cost of construction materials and the wider UK economy. Currency Fluctuations: What a stronger dollar means for international investment into UK bricks and mortar. 3. The 2026 Property Playbook: Strategy for the Medium Term Real estate is a long game, but the next 18 to 24 months are critical. Adam lays out the 2026 Property Playbook, a strategic roadmap for investors looking to position themselves ahead of the next market cycle. Survive then Thrive: Navigating the tail end of the high-interest rate environment to ensure cash flow remains healthy. The 2026 Opportunity: Why 2026 is flagged as a key year for capital growth. We look at the historical property cycles and the indicators suggesting a supply-crunch-driven boom in specific regions. Asset Selection: Which property types will outperform? A look at why functional residential stock, HMOs in non-Article 4 areas, and specific commercial-to-residential conversions might be the winners of the next cycle. The Regulatory Landscape: Preparing your portfolio now for the EPC changes and renters' reform legislation that will be fully bedded in by 2026. Why This Matters Now: The property market is currently full of mixed signals. Media headlines scream crash one day and boom the next. By understanding the Propenomix - the intersection of property and economics - you can filter out the noise. Whether you are a developer looking to understand the macro headwinds, a landlord concerned about the rental crisis, or an investor planning your next acquisition, this episode provides the data-driven clarity you need. It is not just about buying houses; it is about understanding the world in which those houses exist. From the streets of Britain where the homelessness crisis plays out, to the policy rooms of Washington D.C., everything is connected. Join the Conversation: Are you seeing the impact of the homelessness crisis in your local area? How are you preparing your portfolio for 2026? Let us know in the comments or reach out via LinkedIn. Connect with Adam Lawrence & Propenomix: stay ahead of the curve with the latest insights, data analysis, and property strategies. 🔗 LinkedIn: Adam Lawrence Follow for daily insights and professional updates. 📺 YouTube: Propenomix with Adam Lawrence Watch the full video version of this podcast, plus deep dives into data and charts that we can't show on audio. Subscribe to The Weekly Newsletter: Subscribe Here Get the top property news stories delivered straight to your inbox every week. Disclaimer: The content of this podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Property investment carries risks, and you should always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a qualified professional before making investment decisions.

Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators. From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward environment for investors—and a financial squeeze for everyone else. In this episode, we cover: The 30-Year Norm: Why 62% of First-Time Buyers are now locking into 30+ year terms just to enter the market. Generational Divide: How the elderly now "Own England" (62% of outright owners are 65+), while working-age tenants remain captive. The Pricing Disconnect: Analyzing the massive 29.3% gap between seller expectations and actual sale prices. Construction in Crisis: The steepest downturn in 5.5 years (PMI 39.4) and what it means for housing supply. The Human Cost: Rising "structural unhappiness" and the fragility of the tenant base. Global Shocks: Trumponomics, tariffs, and the US/UK Economic Prosperity Deal. Links & Resources: 🎟️ Join the Workshop: tinyurl.com/pbwnine #Propenomix #AdamLawrence #Property #Economics #UKHousing

The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you)   The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring.   In this episode: Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing. The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter). Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise.   The Propenomix Verdict: The market is shifting. Are you positioned for it?   🎧 Listen now. Know a landlord with their head in the sand? Send them this episode.   🚀 Next Step: Don't just listen—prepare. Secure your seat at the Property Business Workshop and get the tactical edge: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy. Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new electric vehicle excise duty, and the surprising lack of movement on Capital Gains Tax. They delve into the strategic nuances of the new "mansion tax" on properties over £2 million and dissect the government's approach to the rental market, including the likely inflationary pressure on rents due to increased landlord costs. Beyond the headlines, this episode provides a unique, investor-focused perspective on: The "Black Hole" Narrative: Was the £22bn fiscal hole real or a political construct to justify tax hikes? Dividend Tax Hikes: A look at the 2% increase and its regressive impact on small business owners versus the "Amazon model" of aggressive reinvestment. The Property Market: Why the rental sector might see a "pass-through" of costs to tenants and how the freeze on thresholds affects market dynamics. Political Fallout: A sharp analysis of Kemi Badenoch's standout performance in opposition and what it signals for the future political landscape. Economic Forecasts: Why the OBR's 1.5% growth forecast might be more realistic than the government's optimism, and what "fiscal headroom" really means for future borrowing. Whether you're a seasoned property investor, a business owner, or simply keen to understand the economic currents shaping the UK, this episode delivers the expert insight and "no-nonsense" analysis you need to navigate the post-budget landscape. Tune in for a session that goes beyond the dispatch box to reveal the real winners and losers of Budget 2025.

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's the score? The deep dive looks to how much pain we will all be in in a few days time, post-budget   We also have, in the Macro section:   Inflation - and a more orderly month The Rightmove Asking Price Index with the ONS Private Rents and House Prices alongside The PMIs and all relevant reports from S&P Global The Gilts and Swaps - natch   On the Budget - we've endured endless weeks and indeed months of speculation. Property and any asset owners look set to take it in the face. Will it be as painful as we think? I try to ascribe some probabilities to what will happen!   Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's the score? The deep dive looks at some specifics from the Bank of England meeting this month   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Labour Market Overview - unemployment! The RICS residential market report Growth - a free microscope with every Supplement! The Gilts and Swaps - ofc   On the Bank of England report - I was at the Breakfast Briefing this week and that always offers extra insight - insights this time round match with the macro figures of the week, Growth and Unemployment focused. How do they fix it? I tell them!   Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's the score? The deep dive looks at the Bank of England meeting Monetary Policy Report and Rate Decision Meeting!   We also have, in the Macro section:   The PMIs - final numbers The Halifax House Price Index The ONS Economic Activity and Social Change report The Gilts and Swaps - natch   On the Bank of England report - I go further and talk about what should be done in the budget from a fairness perspective, and also from the perspective of trying to control inflation to try and get the interest rate down so that we can burn less money on debt servicing!!!!   Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's occurring? The deep dive shines the light on the London market alongside land prices nationwide, and what's working and what isn't.   We also have, in the Macro section:   Inflation - the most positive report for a while Prices - Rightmove asking prices, ONS house prices and rents The Flash PMIs and a return to limp growth The gilts and swaps, as always   The deep dive gets into two reports, one from Savills and another from Hamptons, which focus on urban and greenfield development, and the London market and its fate over the past 10 years, and how that affects the surrounding areas.   Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine   

*****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX***** This AI-Generated episode was output from Google's NotebookLM, based on a single source - an influential and seriously comprehensive report about social housing that was recently published. The source paper is here: https://homesforpeopleweneed.co.uk/ And I very much recommend you read it. However, it is an 81-page PDF so I wanted to share this and see if people found it useful. A deep-dive style summary, AI produced, limited work from the "chef" here - and hopefully it will spark some interesting debate and conversation. Please let me know what you think!  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's cooking? The deep dive looks at a whole plethora of reports released in the past week about the sad state of our housing starts in the UK at this time.   We also have, in the Macro section:   The labour market numbers - (un)employment and inactivity Growth - a bit The MHCLG numbers on temporary accommodation - improving   The deep dive gets into the state of the UK housing starts situation, from multiple different sources and angles. Spoiler alert - it is ugly! I also go into detail about some of the recent Bank of England speeches regarding the future path of the interest rate.   Book workshop tickets: https://bit.ly/pbw9   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at a long and strong article about the mess at the Bank of England over Quantitative Tightening, and "how to fix the Black Hole".    We also have, in the Macro section:   The construction PMIs for September - slightly less ugly The Halifax House Price Index  The RICS Residential Market Report   The deep dive gets into the details on Government funds and a sensible solution for saving tens of billions as we approach another miserable budget. THE ANSWER IS THERE, RACHEL - YOU JUST NEED TO READ IT AND GET IT DONE!    Book workshop tickets: https://bit.ly/pbw9 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at a couple of reports - one from Zoopla about Housebuilding Viability and another from the Resolution Foundation regarding the difference 300k/homes/year would make.   We also have, in the Macro section:   The actual PMIs for September - ugly The Nationwide House Price Index with a REAL price update The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - healthy enough The gilts and swaps markets - of course   The deep dive gets into the housing landscape situation and the scale of the challenge facing Steve Reed - and provides some objective data overall that will probably surprise you quite a lot……alongside a data blast roundup of some insightful figures released this week.  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at a couple of reports - one from Shelter, and another from the JRF - and commemorates 3 years post-lettuce, as well.   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Flash PMIs - not great The Rightmove House Price and Zoopla Rents Indices The ONS on Housing Purchase Affordability The gilts and swaps markets - of course   The deep dive tries to assess credibility of Shelter's recent research on social homes as they continue to pressure the Chancellor. The JRF claim they have better figures than the ONS. Then, we consign the lettuce to the history books one more time……  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive is DEEP - firstly into recent UK Finance Data publications, rent affordability and then a bombshell of a report dropped by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation this week.    We also have, in the Macro section:   The Halifax House Price Index The RICS residential market report No-wth - that's growth, when there is none The gilts and swaps markets - of course - a quieter week with a kick   The deep dive gets into the JRF report titled - Rebalancing the housing market through tax reform. It isn't one for those with weak stomachs. It does, however, contain a number of leaps of faith that are a bridge too far in my view - and as usual I don't mince words   Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive had no choice - it goes to the heart of Raynergate and a new housing secretary   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Nationwide House Price Index The Bank of England Money and Credit Report The final PMIs for August - great news (selectively) The gilts and swaps markets - of course - quite the week   The deep dive gets into the actual factual detail of the Rayner case and departure - which far too many seemed to avoid, suggesting this is a matter of opinion - it isn't, the legislation is clear. However it is more about the aftermath and whether, indeed, she'll be back.   Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at more proposed taxes and the architect of some of these ideas…..   We also have, in the Macro section:   Right-to-Buy figures for 2024/25 The UK Household Costs Index The Rightmove Asking Price Index The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch   The deep dive goes full campanologist this week and takes a close look at Torsten Bell, MP, and some of his dimmer and brighter ideas for tax reform. We really are going to see at least one of them enacted in late Autumn.   Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at property taxes, CGT removal on primary residences, and the likes   We also have, in the Macro section:   Inflation once more gripping the nation The flash PMIs The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch   The deep dive gets into the Property Tax "reforms" and multiple leaks from the Treasury this week as they feel their way towards the budget, reading the braille as usual…….   Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at the Bank of England's Quantitative Tightening strategy   We also have, in the Macro section:   Unemployment and the labour market Growth - yes, growth! The RICS residential market report The gilts and swaps markets - of course - ratewatch   The deep dive talks Bank of England money burning strategies - quite literally - and just how many tens of billions have been wasted that just haven't needed to be in recent years. Will the bonfire continue when we can afford it the least? Genuinely the biggest scandal never talked about   Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time Market - how's it looking? The deep dive looks at the Bank of England meeting and a historic moment   We also have, in the Macro section:   The final PMIs for July Halifax's house price index amidst little fuss The real time snapshot of how the economy is really working The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch   The deep dive gets right into the Bank of England Monetary Policy meeting and the full report that was delivered, and the 0.25% rate cut that emerged - if that's all you took away from it, you missed the meat of the situation for sure - don't worry, it is all here.    Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time Market - how's the steam? The deep dive looks at several reports from Hamptons International and Savills, regarding different aspects of the market and future predictions   We also have, in the Macro section:   The flash PMIs - dry July? Rightmove's House Price Index and another fuss UK Finance report on Q1 in the Buy-To-Let lending space The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch   The deep dive dips into four separate reports this week - forecasts for growth in capital values and rents are being trimmed left, right and centre - but what about the next 5 years? And how about intergenerational injustice - or not? Find out inside   Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch In place of the Real Time Market - the last crash and reflection The deep dive looks at the Mansion House Speech as we keep both eyes firmly on number 11   We also have, in the Macro section:   Inflation - yep, and yep I told you so Unemployment - playing out as predicted The ONS private rents and house prices report The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch   The deep dive stays in situ this week - the Mansion House speech has significant implications for the financial markets, but there are no massive changes - however, it is all looking to lead to more and more investment in property from larger players. What does that mean for the rest of us?   Enjoy - and book your workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at how much money we have, or haven't, got over the coming decades as a country   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Halifax and Zoopla price indices - slowly upwards The RICS residential market report Growth - heh The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch   The deep dive goes where I just have to this week. If you missed it, the OBR published a report which created a huge stir - we have got a couple of significant problems in the pipe, and the answers are in the report - but not the way they wrote it, frustratingly……Adam for PM?   Enjoy - and book workshop tickets at http://bit.ly/pbweight   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at a couple of reports - one from Zoopla about Housebuilding Viability and another from the Resolution Foundation regarding the difference 300k/homes/year would make.   We also have, in the Macro section:   The actual PMIs for September - ugly The Nationwide House Price Index with a REAL price update The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - healthy enough The gilts and swaps markets - of course   The deep dive gets into the housing landscape situation and the scale of the challenge facing Steve Reed - and provides some objective data overall that will probably surprise you quite a lot……alongside a data blast roundup of some insightful figures released this week.  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's going on? The deep dive looks at just how wobbly the position is for Rachel Reeves in Number 11 after a torrid week   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Bank of England Money and Credit Report The Nationwide House Price Index - caused some fuss this week The Final PMI figures and some good news The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch   The deep dive goes where we might be scared to go - if Reeves does go, who replaces her? What does that mean? Will Starmer himself be stabbed in the back faster than we were expecting? Which heroes or villains will be thrown into the mixer?   Enjoy  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at the next 1-3 years of house price growth, recent mortgage market changes and provides a comprehensive summary of what's in the mixer, and what's already happened   We also have, in the Macro section:   The flash PMIs - sluggish improvement ONS public opinions and social trends Homes England delivery figures and starts for 2024-25 fiscal year   The deep dive gets stuck right into the one major consideration for housing market price movements - mortgages and credit availability. There have been some slow old pace changes afoot - why are they happening, what's the plan (I believe there is one) and what will the outcome be on UK house prices, most importantly?   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven    

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at the Bank of England but it also tells you a story - the story of the yield curve   We also have, in the Macro section:   Inflation numbers - my favoured topic of the past 4.5 years Housing indices - the ONS and Rightmove UK Finance and their new format data and reports   The deep dive gets into the Bank of England's current mindset - concerned about geopolitical events, of course, but more concerned about the labour market that has suffered from the Labour budget policies - and then goes on to tell you what today's market forecast is for the 5-year mortgage rate in 5 years time. I promise you it isn't what you think it is!   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven    

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at the spending review with a heavy tilt on the housing element, of course   We also have, in the Macro section:   The labour market and Awful April's report on jobs - going the wrong way The Growth report - and the real reasons behind the numbers The RICS residential market report - sideways in the short term And of course the gilts and swaps - our weekly staple.   The deep dive gets into the meat of 134 pages of Spending Review - what did it all mean, what did it say, and what's the actual plan for house building, energy upgrades and all of the rest of the economy over the next 5 years and beyond? Answers inside! I blend in some of the industry analysis alongside my own and keep an apolitical viewpoint (or at least, I try to!)   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a draft report on the true scale of subsidy required to deliver 90k social rent homes each year in the UK.    We also have, in the Macro section:   Halifax and Nationwide's respective price indices The Bank of England Money and Credit Report analysed The PMIs - final May numbers which were better than the drafts! And of course the gilts and swaps - weekly staple.   The deep dive gets into the true reality of the Social Rent Home Delivery subsidy issue, as the current funding is a tiny fraction of what's needed (about one eighth) in order to actually do what has been promised for many years - see this week's quote.  I add historical context to the permacrisis, and also some doses of reality to the proposed solutions - nevertheless, it is one of the more robust pieces of work I've reported on for some months.    Enjoy   Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at MHCLG figures on statutory homelessness duties, a Shelter report on trends in temporary accommodation, and Savills publication this week on the Housing Challenge as they prefer to call it!   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Nationwide House Price Index for April The Bank of England Money and Credit Report for "Stamp month" A precis of the local election results and what a Reform government would look like And the gilts and swaps rounding things off   The deep dive this week looks at the reality of the situation in temporary accommodation, from both the official data and also a Shelter report on where it is going - which I must say, to me, looks to have a fairly conservative set of forecasts in it, particularly as new build delivery is still going down before it goes up.   On that subject, Savills' detailed forecast on the next 5 years of housing delivery makes very interesting reading, and summarises the salient points in the sector and around the 1.5m homes target very succinctly indeed.   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - The Home Builders' Federation Q4 pipeline report, and UK Finance's report on Household Finances from Q4, both published this week.   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Halifax House Price Index The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - with something to watch out for and be aware of The final PMIs for February The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with some extra commentary around what the Bank of England committee members have been doing and saying this week   And in the deep dive......   The Home Builders Federation have the most marginal piece of good news - but planning permission is, of course, only the first piece of the jigsaw.   UK Finance is similarly somewhat positive - but, the story is the same really. We are coming back from a tough position in general….2023 was a tough old year and 2024 was a year of relatively slow repair, basically!   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On. 3 weeks until the Spring Statement!   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6  Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - Zoopla's efforts for the month which get into flats and houses, and the differences - and I attempt to add some depth, and then a great report from the Nationwide Foundation about the Private Rental Sector - the best I've read, bar none.     We also have, in the Macro section:   The Nationwide House Price Index Confidence - and the return of it, or a couple of green shoots anyway The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with reasonable news.   And in the deep dive......   Zoopla's report on pricing for January that was released in February contains some revelations about the price of flats and how much cheaper they are than houses. We are heading to a world where a house is twice the price of a flat. However - I ask the questions to take it to the next level of detail - are flats much less attractive, comparatively, than they were? As investment propositions, I primarily mean……before you even start on cladding, fire, rocketing service charges…….you get the picture.   Then the Nationwide Foundation, and their report on "Systemic change" in the PRS - this report asks so many important questions, and whilst I critique with the red pen as usual, I'm full of praise for those even asking these questions. Real progress from an organisation without an agenda, that's well funded - heartwarming to say the least.    What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On (and for our conveyancers to get on with it, if we are buying anything right now!)   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6  Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive looks at a couple of reports that have been on my hit list for some time. One from the centre, and one from left of centre - firstly, the hotel of mum and dad; then the positive changes in housing circumstances for young people in Britain over the past decade (and my idea of irony on that subject).    We also have, in the Macro section, in "mega week":   The ONS Labour Market Report INFLATION - and just how "Back" it is. The flash PMIs, of course…… The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse.   And in the deep dive......   The Institute for Fiscal Studies report entitled "Hotel of Mum and Dad" released last month looks specifically at the area of those aged 25-34 "co-living" with Mum and Dad, and how it varies, how it has changed in recent years, and some of the drivers of the changes. I get stuck into it.    Then the Resolution Foundation, whilst really wanting to write an article about just how hard the younger working families on middle and low incomes have got it, found themselves forced to conclude that the past decade has meant steps forward, rather than steps backward, for this group of the population. I get stuck into that too!   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - job worries, inflation wobbles, a cratering manufacturing sector and Andrew Bailey's warnings of weak growth - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6  Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes back in for a second bite of the cherry on the Bank of England Monetary Policy report that accompanied the meeting the week before; plus the invaluable insight that I get directly from the regional rep of the Bank at the Quarterly briefings. He speaks to the committee directly - and let's face it, that's as close as I'm getting at any point in the near future.    We also have, in the Macro section:   The RICS Residential Market Survey The ONS full report on Growth and the "upside miss" - party time? A bonus productivity report on the public sector and specifically healthcare and……. The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse.   And in the deep dive......   The Bank of England changed a whole number of forecasts compared to where they were 3 months before. It was an eventful quarter. I'm not convinced they'd done their budget homework before they released their November report - but what are these adjustments, and what do they mean for interest rates, and the property market in general? There's detail - real detail - you have been warned!   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, responsibly, even with a bit more inflation, slightly higher rates than many were promising, and of course the ever-changing legislative landscape that seeks to frighten everyone that little bit more each week……..   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6  Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive has no choice - there's the most fundamental switch in approach from one of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee members that there has been in - a LONG time - and it needs discussion at an appropriate level. Does it mean that interest rates are dropping faster than some misery guts - Propenomix included - have been saying?   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Halifax House Price Index The PMIs - my darlings of the real time economy The BBA mortgage rate The gilts and swaps - a week for the scrapbook.   And in the deep dive......   Rachel seemed to get buried again this week as the rhetoric all swung to what loyal readers and listeners to the Supplement already knew - as I've been screaming - these incredibly positive growth forecasts need to come DOWN. She was naive to claim that little victory last week when the IMF upgraded the UK growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.8% as the Bank of England DOWNgraded it massively in their most recent forecast (interestingly, to exactly where I predicted it would be around 2 months ago). But does the whole story add up? Does my version of it all add up? I run the ruler over it, in detail, on the back of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report - a quarterly event, which led to a 0.25% cut in the Base Rate on Thursday.   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, responsibly, even if we have to cope with the slings and arrows of outrageous policy, productivity and growth numbers!   Enjoy   Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6 Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes long - Rachel Reeves is going "Further and Faster" - no, not out the door of Number 11 as some have been hoping - but for GROWTH   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Nationwide House Price Index (and affordability report) - in detail The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - with implications The ONS real-time report on Economic Activity and Social Change in the UK - and how we are stacking up compared to 5+ years ago The gilts and swaps - an orderly and directionally sweet week.   And in the deep dive......   Rachel Reeves Resurrection, Rallying Cry, Roar, Respite from Negativity - call it what you will. Crumbs for the North and Midlands, and Gold for the South? No wonder they dropped the levelling up chat, eh? But no - apparently you can build runways and gigantic developments in the countryside but it all be congruent with net zero? That seems like a big lie, to be honest - BUT, however they are going to navigate that bit, these moves are absolutely in the right direction. Make no mistake. Reeves 2.0 looks a vast improvement (yes, from a low bar of a start). Expect Rachel to no longer look like she's been dug up when you see her in the media - she's in the ascendancy now, but now we will find out what mettle (and ability) lies behind the padded CV and the rhetoric. Spring looks BIG.   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government!   Enjoy   Buy workshop tickets - bit.ly/pbw6  Explore Sourcing Solved: http://bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025   

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes for the trifecta this week - an interesting but strange Hamptons report about the rental market - a fascinating piece about a Community Rent Model - and some musings on the "big debate" I was involved in this week.    We also have, in the Macro section:   (Un)employment - that week of the month. Weak? Confidence (or more accurately, lack thereof) The flash PMIs - my favourite real time indicator of economic health (or sickness) The gilts and swaps - a relatively idyllic week   And in the deep dive......   Hamptons make sense of the English Housing Survey data alongside their own, particularly around the percentage of rent paid by people of a certain age. They also examine the effect of the withdrawal of the Help-to-Buy scheme The work and brainchild of a Labour councillor who did incredible work in Social Housing starts, but seems to have an answer that needs MUCH more airtime than it has received thus far. Hence the Supplement! My reflections on the debate I had this week with Samuel Leeds, property training business owner. This premieres after the Supplement goes to print and air, so there are no spoilers, don't worry - you'll have to watch it for that!   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - We will get there, regardless of the best or worst efforts of the current Government!   Enjoy  

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes into the low and high pay report from the ONS - with some unreported but eye-opening headlines - and also takes a look at the 6-monthly ONS migration report in a significant level of detail    We also have, in the Macro section:   Inflation - you know it - and downside misses on forecasts Growth, Growth, Growth - and the microscopes needed to find it The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report, always illuminating The gilts and swaps - and why last week's advice not to panic has played out well, and will continue to do so in my view - with some bonus content here too   And in the deep dive......   The ONS keeps on delivering interesting reports and I keep ploughing through them. How many people are now low paid in the UK as a percentage, using the official OECD definition? It looks great - why have we not been shouting about it from the rooftops? What about the high-paid - have we created those high-pay, high-skill jobs that were promised some time back by the guy with the hair? Then - migration - the most comprehensive look I've ever taken at this subject that defines the shape of the rental market in the UK for many years to come. Hopefully I've answered some questions that you might have been asking, and some you might not realise that you wanted to ask, but are interested in   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, you had a good week, keep driving those yields down - pretty please?   Enjoy   Learn more about the Sourcing Course: https://bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The deep dive goes into the household and national balance sheets - lifting the lid on how good, or bad, the UK finances as a whole truly are. As a bonus, we look at UK Finance's forecasts for 2025 and 2026 when it comes to lending, and specifically buy-to-let of course.   We also have, in the Macro section:   The Halifax House Price Index and their take on 2025 The Services and Construction PMI final prints for December and the Composite Index, with the bearish comments thrown in The Bank of England BBA Mortgage rate data and the decision maker panel forecasts for 2025 The gilts and swaps - and some real meat (remember to chew it well, you may want 2 or 3 reads of this section…..) about the yields and what's really going on - and what it means, and why I'm not panicking. Yet   And in the deep dive......   The ONS once a year - usually, in business as usual times - produce a Balance Sheet for the UK and establish "our" net worth - including the households as the primary holders of the vast majority of the wealth. How much is it? How did it move? How bankrupt - or not - is the UK? What's it all made up of, anyway (I know you can guess what a very decent slug of it is made up of……) UK Finance - who have all the lender data - produce a detailed forecast of the key numbers in the mortgage market for 2025, including net lending, repossessions, arrears, and remortgaging (or lack of it, as there has been over recent years)   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - Rachel, we need you to step up   Enjoy   Buy workshop tickets at: bit.ly/pbwfive

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: The Resolution Foundation's recent report "Housing Hurdles" gets the full treatment in the deep dive today.   The Nationwide House Price Index and surprises or lack thereof The Manufacturing PMI final print for December and glum accompanying commentary The Bank of England Money and Credit report for November and the first backward step for a while - but, in context, of course The gilts and swaps - in another thin trading week, be careful……   And in the deep dive......   The Resolution Foundation made waves with their recent report because they chose a headline about how much home ownership had improved for millennials in the previous decade. This was no surprise to me as I follow the actual figures rather than the media hype - but there's plenty of interest including their analysis and methodology right under the microscope this week, as I go into detail about how I think a really robust piece of work would go about making comparisons with 35 years ago.    What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - 1 down, 51 to go…….   Enjoy   Workshop tickets at https://bit.ly/pbwfive 

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup: Hamptons International weigh in with another couple of well-researched Property market reports Zoopla takes us into 2025 with their roundup of 2024 as they saw it   The Macro roundup for the quarter from the ONS Business Investment - going well, for Q3 - fingers crossed Retail sales and a surprise for the fortunes of online retail, perhaps? The gilts and swaps - in a thin trading week, so be careful……   And in the deep dive......   Hamptons deep-dive into stamp duty, and the changes which are now 10 years old - and the changes coming again in April Hamptons December market update with predictions for next year and some useful stats on completions before the deadline Zoopla predict a 2.5% increase in capital growth for 2025 - with more transactions than 2024 as well And after all that - I reveal the first look at MY predictions for 2025 on all the important macro numbers - plus house prices and rents. How close will I get this time around….???   What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On into 2025 - remember, even a stopped clock is right twice a day so some of the political decisions will go well next year!   Enjoy   BUY workshop tickets at bit.ly/pbwfive