Simply Put

Even as Artificial Intelligence enhances productivity, it is also increasing cybersecurity vulnerabilities across the financial industry. New technologies like Anthropic’s Mythos add to bad actors’ abilities to disrupt the financial sector through fraud and Distributed Denial-of-Service attacks. Amid these risks, individuals, institutions, and governments have tools available to limit the significant costs from cyberattacks. In this episode, we talk with Teresa Walsh, CEO and Founder of Integrated Intelligence Solutions, about how AI is empowering nefarious actors, the direct and indirect costs of cyberattacks, and how individuals and institutions can best protect themselves. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The cost of shipping insurance in the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the last four months. Even after the US and Iran lifted their mutual blockade last week, insurers and ship operators are wary of safety in the narrow passageway and the stability of any agreement. The protracted riskiness will delay energy market normalization and push up the cost of oil transportation. In this episode, we talk with Michelle Bockmann, Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst with Windward, about how the shipping insurance market prices war risk and how insurers view the fragile US-Iran peace agreement. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Investors often use inflation swaps and breakevens — the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and TIPS — to deduce market participants’ inflation expectations. These measures also change from new TIPS issuance, shifting inflation risk, and a liquidity premium, however, making them imprecise gauges of estimates for future inflation. In this episode, we talk with Mike Ashton, Managing Principal at Enduring Investments, about how TIPS and swaps compensate investors for inflation, how closely they reflect inflation expectations, and what they tell us about expectations for the War in Iran. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The Strait of Hormuz’s closure has driven up prices for fertilizer and diesel, two inputs essential for agricultural production. Considering how farmers pre-buy fertilizer and crops take months to grow, the higher costs may not be fully passed on to consumers until the spring of 2027. Agricultural production will be a bellwether as the Fed waits to see the second-order effects of higher oil prices on broader consumer inflation. In this episode, we talk with Alexis Maxwell, Senior Analyst for Fertilizer with Bloomberg Intelligence, about how the war in Iran is increasing costs for agricultural production, farmers’ alternatives to conventional fertilizer, and the energy shock’s delayed impact on consumer food prices. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

The term premium — investors’ compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and central banks’ balance sheets. The New York Fed’s Adrian, Crump, and Mönch model estimates the 10-year Treasury term premium is higher than before the pandemic but substantially lower than it was pre- GFC. The post-pandemic term premium will shape the path of longer-term Treasuries as bond investors consider what the new normal looks like. In this episode, we talk with Emanuel Mönch, Professor of Financial and Monetary Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, about the models estimating the term premium, what’s driven changes over the last forty years, and how it could shift under a Warsh-led Fed.

Changes in foreign migration caused US population growth to slow last year and potentially turn negative in 2026. Federal programs and private debt markets structured around an assumption of growth must now contend with the possibility of a shrinking labor force. Meanwhile, Fed officials have become remarkably sanguine amid near-zero job growth, convinced the labor market remains curiously in balance because of changes in the labor supply. In this episode, we talk with Stan Veuger, Senior Fellow in Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, about the abrupt slowdown in US population growth, what it means for breakeven job growth, and how current trends will impact future interest rates.