The 10-Minute Take

U.S. productivity growth is strong, business investment in information processing and equipment has surged, and headlines about AI replacing jobs are growing louder. But, how much of this is actually attributable to AI and how much is noise?Reality is nuanced. We’re still largely in the building out phase of AI investment, and it’s too soon to say whether AI has led to a structural break in productivity. Fears of widespread job displacement may dominate the narrative, but labor market data tells a different story.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC U.S. economists Carrie Freestone and Imri Haggin discuss:Whether recent productivity gains can be attributed to adoption of AI or reflect other factors.How AI-related capital spending is influencing business investment.What data shows about AI's impact on jobs, and whether labor displacement is happening.

Global oil prices remain high as the Middle East conflict persists, raising questions about a potential comeback of the broad-based inflation Canada experienced during and after the pandemic.But, this shock is fundamentally different from the past. Unlike 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war compounded systemic supply chain disruptions from pandemic lockdowns, today's commodity shock is narrowly concentrated in oil, and unfolding at a time when global supply chains are more resilient.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:How the scope and scale of the commodity price shock differs from the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.What localized and contained supply chain disruptions this year could mean for global inflation. Why Canadian consumers could be less tolerant of rising prices than they were in 2022.

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, raising questions about the impact to Canada’s oil-exporting economy.This shock differs fundamentally from the past including 2015’s oil price collapse, which drove structural changes in Canada’s energy sector over the past decade. The result: A surprisingly neutral net effect from today’s high oil prices on real economic growth.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:Why domestic energy investment isn’t likely to surge despite higher oil prices.How the price shock can benefit some sectors but hurt others, creating a fractured impact.What to expect for Bank of Canada rate decisions as inflation pressures evolve.

Rising oil prices and its impact on the US economy are continuously evolving, and how long the crisis lasts will be the key determinant of where headline inflation settles. If the shock persists, higher energy prices will layer onto core inflation pressures amid the passthrough of tariffs to prices. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC’s Head of US Economics, Mike Reid, joins economist Carrie Freestone to discuss how he’s thinking about inflation and the hit to consumption in the months ahead. The episode covers:Constructing a range of scenarios to assess potential impact of higher energy prices on headline inflation.Signs of early tariff passthrough already showing up beneath the surface.Whether the US labor market and consumers are well-positioned to withstand these shocks.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad-based tariffs is far from the end of the U.S. tariff story.The administration has already pivoted to new legislative authorities and opened investigations for future measures. For Canada, the implications are more limited than many would think. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down what the ruling means for trade policy and the economy. They discuss:What IEEPA is, why it was struck down, and what the administration is doing insteadFour major statutory authorities the U.S. administration could use to reinstate or expand tariffs.Why Canada’s tariff backdrop hasn’t really changed from the ruling—and what matters for the bilateral relationship going forward.

One month into 2026, U.S. inflation continues to run above 2% for a fifth consecutive year—and the reason goes beyond a single cause. Some recent data—including easing in core services and vehicle prices—might suggest relief is near, but a closer look reveals these improvements are unlikely to persist as a trend.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore what's driving inflation and how to cut through the noise. They explore:How a tight labor market, robust consumer demand, tariffs flowing through supply chains, and a lagging housing inflation measure are all keeping inflation elevated.What are the critical differences between the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures and why the Fed's preferred measure often tells a different story than headline CPI readings.Key data challenges and what to monitor: The Producer Price Index for tariff signals, business surveys for pricing intent, and wage dynamics for inflation's floor.

Canada's extreme trade concentration—with 75% of energy exports and 77% of manufacturing exports going to the U.S. in 2024—has left the country vulnerable to protectionist trade policies.While 2025 data shows encouraging early signs of diversification, most Canadian exporters still lack the infrastructure and trade channels needed to pivot away from U.S. markets effectively.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone are joined by colleague Salim Zanzana for conversation on:Canada’s concentrated trade reality and how it’s evolved in the past year. What early diversification efforts reveal about Canadian exporters adapting. Recent developments between Canada and China and their economic impact.

We're back for season four! In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal themes that matter for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026.Despite a turbulent 2025, Canada's economy is starting from a surprisingly stronger position than many realize. Per-capita GDP improved for the first time in three years. The real question is: Can this improvement be sustained as international headwinds continue to grow. South of the border, our outlook for the U.S. remains "stagflation lite"—sticky services inflation around 3% paired with growth below 2%. It's not just about tariffs. Uneven consumer spending driven by wealthy households and retirees is keeping inflation pressures alive.

Trade disruptions in 2025 took a toll on Canada-U.S. relations after decades of coordination and integration. Still, the two economies are more similar than many may appreciate.  In this season finale of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone round up three common themes shaping both economies this year. They include:• Slowing population growth, and how it’s impacted a key labour market benchmark—breakeven employment rates.• Resilient consumer spending holding up despite much trade uncertainty and deteriorating job market conditions.• Big government deficits—an ongoing theme in the U.S. post-pandemic, but also emerging in Canada as well.

The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days—the longest in history—and, economists now have more clarity about the release of government data.But, clarity on timing doesn't mean clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Without key October data, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces significant fog heading into the critical December interest rate decision.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:When (and if) key indicators like the October jobs and inflation data will be released, and what gaps we're facing.What September data revealed about the economy heading into the shutdownHow the shutdown will weigh on GDP growth in Q4 2025.Why the Fed's December meeting is consequential, and whether a pause may be the most prudent move.

In response to tariff pressures and economic weakness, Budget 2025 commits big new spending to spark private investment and reignite growth – with higher deficits and debt as a result. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economist Claire Fan is joined by RBC Assistant Chief Economist Cynthia Leach to discuss: Why fiscal policy is the right tool to address the weak growth outlookHow the growth agenda is central to the government’s fiscal planWhether the budget does enough to catalyze growth – and the execution risks that could derail itIf Canada can afford to spend big right now

It’s the 23rd day of the U.S. government shutdown and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed.Significant data disruptions are clouding visibility over the economy just as the U.S. Federal Reserve restarts its rate-cutting cycle.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:Why data disruptions may be more concerning than immediate economic disruptions.What alternative private sector indicators reveal about the current state of the U.S. economy.The Fed's likely path forward amid the data blackout and trade uncertainty.

Amid the constant churn of U.S. tariff headlines, fundamental questions about Canada's trade often go unanswered. Questions such as:• What exactly does Canada export—and where does it all go?• Has Canada always been this dependent on the U.S. market?• Which provinces are most at risk from trade disruptions?• Should we worry less about tariffs on certain goods like fungible raw materials than others?In this episode on the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into these questions and more.

Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada returned from the sidelines this week – with widely anticipated decisions to cut their policy rate by 25 basis points. But behind these moves lie different motivations and signals, sparking debate over what this means for the economic outlook on both sides of the border. In this episode, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what drove these decisions and why they view the Fed’s action as a step toward policy normalization—not easing. Later, they shift their focus to Canada, where a mixed data picture begs the question: will the BoC cut rates again in October?

U.S. tariff collection among imports are now at the highest level since the 1930s, and many are wondering how these policies are measuring up against their objectives. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen is joined by Senior Economist Claire Fan to discuss: • Who’s bearing the costs of tariffs so far.• The current and future prospects for U.S. manufacturing amid protectionist measures.• Whether tariff revenues can make a meaningful dent in America's massive federal deficit.• What these findings mean for the sustainability of U.S. tariff policy going forward.

Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour market weakness.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:• What stagflation lite means and why it's different from severe stagflation in the 1970s.• How producer price data are showing early impacts of tariffs before these fully reach consumer prices.• Why dramatic downward revisions to employment figures signal a concerning trend.• What this scenario in the U.S. means for Canada’s export-dependent economy.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady for the third consecutive meeting in July despite acknowledging some softening in the Canadian economy since January.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:What's keeping the central bank on the sidelines.How CUSMA exemptions have protected Canada from the worst of U.S. tariff impacts.The role of growing government spending plans in shaping the outlook.

Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:-How housing affordability has improved to its best level in three years, even though it’s still far from pre-pandemic levels.-The significant variations in market conditions between regions and housing segments (i.e. condos vs. detached homes).-How trade uncertainty, Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and labour market trends are influencing the housing recovery.

The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars. A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss: • The mechanisms of how record retirements keep the unemployment rate low over the medium-term. • Why the U.S. arguably needs more new workers than it needs new jobs. • How these structural forces will play out with near-term cyclical forces (like a labour market deterioration). • How immigration policy in Canada has blunted—but not fully eliminated—the cost of population aging.

Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack: • How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher. • How higher energy prices could impact growth. • What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.

An enormous U.S. government deficit continues to raise concerns about fiscal sustainability as Moody’s joined other rating agencies in downgrading the U.S.’s credit rating. This raises questions about the implications for U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, and the impact on neighboring economies. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore: • Why fiscal challenges may be limiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. • How the recent "Big Beautiful Bill" could add to the fiscal burden. • What these trends mean for Canada’s economy and monetary policy.

The U.S. administration reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from a staggering 145% to 30% marked a significant breakthrough in the ongoing trade war. But, the average effective U.S. tariff rate still sits at 13%— and fundamental trade headwinds haven't disappeared. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC's Economics Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone take you through how our forecasts for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending and growth have changed with the reduction of Chinese tariffs. They also tackle: • How an unwinding of tariffs on Chinese imports will impact our outlooks for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending, and growth. • How this policy shift factors into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2025. • Whether Canada's economic outlook will be impacted by U.S.-China trade developments.

The trade war is changing travel plans. As tensions simmer, Canadians’ trips to the U.S. dropped substantially in early 2025 compared to last year. But, vacations weren’t cancelled altogether—Canadians are just going somewhere else. And, this trend of travelling less to the U.S. isn't unique to Canada – arrivals to the U.S. from other countries have also slumped this year. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore: • How travel patterns have changed in 2025 to reflect broader trade tensions. • Whether tourism within Canada will rise to offset international declines. • How these trends may impact the services sector’s outlook and trade deficits.

Full-blown reciprocal U.S. tariffs are on pause for 90 days, but sizeable 10% tariffs imposed on most countries on April 5 remains in place, and it, along with steep tariffs on imports from China, could have significant implications for the country’s inflation and growth. The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate is currently at its highest since the 1930s, but, in a twist of fate, Canada has emerged as one of the least impacted countries, thanks to USMCA exemptions. RBC Economics has updated forecasts for the U.S. and Canada to reflect these developments. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone attempt to answer these questions: · How will tariffs influence inflation and GDP growth in the U.S. and Canada? · Will either country see a recession in the coming year? · What could future policy from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve look like?

More attention is being focused on how Canada can better diversify trade to alternative sources as U.S. tariffs and threats continue to escalate. In the goods trade, Canada's geographical proximity to the U.S. makes it difficult to diversify away from the U.S. But, that is much less of a constraint for services. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into: • How much services Canada trades and with who? • Is Canada is well positioned to leverage services for broader trade diversification? • What are the headwinds facing services amid the ongoing trade war?

Consumers and businesses on both sides of the border have been paralyzed with uncertainty related to trade. Confidence has tanked and we've also witnessed a notable deterioration in other “soft” sentiment data in recent months. The extent that recent trade policies have impacted hard data is unclear but matters more for central bank decisions. In this week’s episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down how trade turbulence is impacting labour markets in Canada and the U.S., and what to expect next in the ongoing trade war.

Economic data has shown that Canadian inflation was a little firmer than expected in early 2025, especially after considering the impact of the federal tax holiday that pushed prices lower for a few categories including restaurant dining. In the U.S., the picture is a bit “stickier.” Broadly resilient consumer demand has been keeping price pressures at uncomfortably high levels, and not all U.S. households are impacted equally. Those that earn less tend to have less options in avoiding higher priced essentials. Join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they give their latest take on inflation, and how the looming trade rift plays into that.

As the threat of tariffs has been evolving, economists have been busy assessing the potential economic fallout. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss: -What we know about the tariffs announced, what retaliation could look like and how these forces will impact both the Canadian and U.S. economies. -What Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in the January meeting about how the Bank could respond. -How markets reacted to tariff news and how we are assessing the balance of risk between a hit to demand and price pressures arising from potential policies. Join us as we unpack how we’re thinking about the potential damage from a trade war.

The looming threat of potential U.S. tariffs is keeping economists and monetary policymakers up at night. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down: -How RBC Economists are thinking about a U.S. tariff shock- including the multiple stages of passthrough to the economy. -How we think the Bank of Canada could respond to higher prices resulting from tariffs. -Why “reshoring” isn’t as easy as it sounds. Tune in to hear why tariffs are demand-destructive and to understand the Bank of Canada’s predicament if required to respond to these policy-induced price-shifts. While we highlight that the economic damage is likely too severe for these threats to materialize, we also discuss what the consequences would be for the U.S. and Canada if tariffs are implemented.

Season three of the 10-Minute Take is here, and we’re kicking things off with a deep dive into a hot topic—the Canadian dollar’s dramatic dip against the U.S. dollar, to levels unseen since the pandemic. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down: • The key drivers behind the loonie’s recent slump. • What this means for inflation in the current economy. • Where we think the currency is headed in 2025. Tune in to hear why we don’t expect the Bank of Canada to bat an eye, and how Canada’s strong net international investment position will be particularly helpful.

The Canadian economy has been through a whirlwind in 2024. Canada has been in an extended period of underperforming per capita growth compared to the United States since 2019. Still, 2024 was a pivotal year for Canadians with inflation coming down and interest rates finally moving lower. But has inflation truly been tamed? If so, why doesn't it "feel" like affordability has truly gotten better? And, how do big policy pivots on immigration and global trade fit into it all? Join RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan in this 2024 10-Minute Take wrap-up episode. They'll discuss the highlights in a year-in-review before addressing key themes for 2025 in the final episode of the season.

The U.S. government deficit is unusually large at 6.4% of gross domestic product in 2024—the average over the last five decades is 3.7%. Promises from the new Trump administration on the campaign trail suggest it is likely to grow even bigger over the next four years. Massive fiscal spending has been fueling U.S. growth, but will have important and, ultimately, costly consequences for the economy. Lower corporate taxes could also hurt Canada’s competitiveness, at a time when the economic divergence with the U.S. is already large. In this 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dive into the growing government deficit in the U.S., and its ripple effects on Canada.

Canadian household balance sheets appear exceptionally strong as disposable income continues to rise alongside savings. But, what the latest economic data tells us is distinctly different from how many households are feeling. There are many signs the average Canadian consumer is suffering. How can both be true at the same time? On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss this paradox of some Canadians falling behind on credit card payments, while others see savings rise. We’ll unpack the different realities experienced by various income groups, focusing on spending behaviours, debt accumulation or savings, and the distinct difference between wage growth and changes in disposable income.

The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in October—marking the largest reduction since the pandemic. A day later, the federal government announced new immigration targets for the next three years that would drastically alter population growth in Canada. Both of these moves will have an impact on the Canadian economy. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss the latest rate cut, why it was bigger than before and what to expect from the BoC going forward. They’ll also tackle how immigration targets fit into it all.

With many Canadian households planning to renew longer-term fixed rate mortgages at higher rates into 2025 and 2026, Canada’s “mortgage renewal cliff” is hardly behind us. Higher mortgage payments mean less money leftover to spend on essentials and non-essentials and on balance, a weaker economic outlook. But we don't think this is a huge risk, as long as interest rates continue to drop and labour markets don't plummet. Join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan to discuss the upcoming wave of mortgage renewals, how it impacts the overall economy, and why we think the worst of the mortgage renewal cliff is behind us.

Headline inflation in Canada dropped to the 2% target set by the Bank of Canada for the first time since the pandemic in August. That means higher interest rates implemented by the central bank since 2022 have worked to reduce price pressures and restore balance back in the economy. But as much as that is good news, a closer look at the data shows today’s 2% inflation is not quite the same as 2% inflation from before the pandemic. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss the latest inflation trends in Canada and how and why it’s different from before and what this means for the economy going forward.

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the first time since the pandemic in September by 50 basis points. The easing of monetary policy was highly anticipated with inflation showing further signs of deceleration and a very gradual, but worrying, rise in unemployment. Still, many were expecting a 25 basis point cut, because overall economic output remains strong–propped up by robust consumer activity. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone and special guest, RBC Chief Economist Frances Donald, as they unpack the Fed's latest interest rate decision and what red or green flags are emerging from U.S. economic data.

The Liberal government recently announced new tariffs on electric vehicles, steel and aluminum imports from China—marking the latest move in the global trend of trade segregation to boost domestic priorities. That’s not the end of it - by the end of the ongoing 30-day government consultation, tariffs could also be imposed on other products including solar cells, EV batteries, chips, and critical minerals. These new measures are aimed to shield domestic producers from unfair international competition, but will also lead to an immediate increase in input costs for Canadian importers, while creating more tension amid an already frigid global trade environment.

Both U.S. and Canadian households are facing recession fears- but for different reasons. Downside surprises to U.S. data in early August triggered a massive equity selloff. And a triggering of the “Sahm rule” in the U.S. was met with recession fears. In Canada, households are feeling stretched and job seekers struggle to find work. Despite not being in a recession, it certainly feels like one. How will Central Banks react and when will things start to feel easier for Canadian households? In this episode of the 10-minute take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone for a macro update as they answer your burning questions around the latest data points, recession fears, and what all of this means for the year ahead.

Younger Canadians are bearing the brunt of the softening labour market, accounting for the lion’s share— 80%—of the increase in Canada's unemployment rate since the summer of 2022. That share is much higher than in previous downturns like the global financial crisis. Not having a job results in a big hit to disposable income. That coupled with surging costs to service mortgages and other debt has forced many younger Canadian households to deleverage. Some of these challenges are set to unwind in the year ahead, as inflation eases and interest rates drop lower. Other issues, including limited access to the housing market could have a longer-lasting impact on young Canadians' lives. In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they take a deep dive into the challenges facing young Canadians.

The recent deterioration of the Canadian labour market comes at a time when immigration and population growth have also increased significantly. Many have put the two together, and attributed rising unemployment solely to the increase in the labour force due to newcomers. On that, we have a different view. It is true that landed immigrants are seeing a faster increase in the unemployment rate, but that’s been the case whenever the economy has softened in previous periods. This time around, the bigger deterioration was seen among students and new graduates who are having an increasingly hard time landing a job as demand for labour continues to pull back. In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack trends in the labour market, starting with how immigration fits into it all. They’ll then discuss which age groups and industries have been hit particularly hard, before finishing up with what to expect going forward.

The focus is back on former U.S. president Donald Trump’s regressive trade policies after the first U.S. presidential debate and heading into November’s elections. On his campaign trail, Trump has promised to impose hefty tariffs on imports if elected for a second term—suggesting 60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% tariffs on all other imports across the board. in this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone look back at tariffs imposed by Trump during his last presidency and their impact on the U.S. economy. They’ll debunk some of the common misconceptions about the impact of tariffs on economic growth and job creation, before moving on to answer key questions such as what to expect this time around, and how Canada fits into it all.

Canada’s underperformance in productivity has attracted a lot of limelight recently. It’s not a new problem, but the gap (especially when measured against the U.S.) has simply gotten too large to ignore. In the 1970s, the level of Canadian productivity was roughly 90% of U.S. levels. Today it’s more like 70%. That deterioration over the decades leads to an enormous $20,000 earnings gap, between an average Canadian and an average American currently per year. Indeed, historically, gains in productivity have correlated well with real wage growth. And that’s really why everyone should care about slower productivity. Because at its core, a lack of productivity growth means a lack of improvement in living standards. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen and Economist Claire Fan as they tackle productivity. They’ll start by going over all the basics – what productivity is, how it’s measured and why it matters, before detailing a few of the many drivers underlining Canada’s underperformance, and what could help in the period ahead.

With summer approaching, what can we look forward to this year’s travel season that might be different from before? For one, it took longer for Canadians to feel comfortable with longer distance travel following pandemic disruptions but as of the end of 2023, demand for overseas tourism had finally recovered. That trend will likely continue this summer, as more Canadians travel further away to destinations that may have something different to offer. Switching the lens inward, the rebound in travel demand among Canadians has not been fully reciprocated by foreign visitors coming to travel in Canada. That’s where there’s still a sizable gap to be filled. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan as they unpack travel trends. They’ll start by going over where things stand as of the beginning of this year, before getting to some soft spots remaining, and explain why or why not those will bounce back in 2024.

An aging population has dire economic and fiscal consequences. It means widespread labour shortages, more upward pressure on wage growth and inflation, and potentially a growing funding gap for public social services. Canada is not alone in facing such challenges. What is unique, however, is how the Canadian government has utilized immigration as a tool to combat those headwinds. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan as they unpack what it means for the economy to have an aging population. They’ll highlight how Canada measures up against the U.S. and the role immigration can play to soften the blow.

In April, the Bank of Canada shifted its estimate for neutral rate up 25 basis points- a reflection that the 'normal' of interest rates in the post-pandemic era is likely higher than the decade before. What exactly are ‘neutral’ rates and how did the Bank know to adjust them higher? After many decades of neutral rates moving lower, why is the pendulum swinging back? On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they chat monetary policy and answer all of your burning questions around the ‘neutral’ rate of interest.

In early 2024, the disparity in economic performance among advanced economies has grown more apparent. Increasingly, we are seeing the Canadian economy underperforming, especially comparing to strong conditions in the U.S.. Not so optimistic, however, are the U.S. inflation numbers that are once again gathering heat. This has prompted considerations that the Federal Reserve will need to keep rates higher for much longer. But will the BoC have to follow suit? On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone will answer this question for you. They will start by going over where the potential concerns are with a rate divergence between the Bank of Canada and the Fed, before getting to why the BoC is not expected to be derailed in its upcoming easing cycle.

Housing affordability has become a generational concern in Canada and recently took centre-stage in the Federal Budget. At today’s prices, two-thirds of Canadian households cannot afford to purchase a detached home based on earned-income alone. How did we get here? And how can we improve access to home ownership? On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take we are joined by special guest, RBC’s Assistant Chief Economist Robert Hogue to discuss his latest report, The Great Rebuild. Robert will unpack what has driven Canada’s momentous housing supply challenges and how they can be solved in the years ahead.

Two weeks ago, Canada’s Minister of Immigration announced plans to limit the scope of international migration in Canada over the coming years. The announcement detailed early plans to reduce the share of temporary residents (mostly study and work permit holders) in the population to 5% over the next three years. In order for that target to be reached, the number of temporary residents will need to drop by a staggering 20% over the same time frame. On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break this new policy down. They will walk through details of the newly announced cap, who’s expected to be impacted in the near-term before delving deeper to discuss the broader implications on Canada’s population growth, GDP and other important economic metrics.

Canadian renters are more squeezed than ever before! Renters are allocating a greater share of their take-home pay to housing than homeowners at the same time that costs for other essentials (and interest on debt) have risen. This has resulted in renters as a collective spending more than they earn. Down-payment requirements are mounting relative to take-home pay, making it exceptionally difficult to save for a home. On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack housing as a vehicle for wealth accumulation, explaining how opportunities for wealth generation are becoming less accessible and what that means for a large segment of Canada’s population.