The Allan Gray Podcast

Global markets are navigating a challenging mix of persistent conflict, energy insecurity and volatile inflation, stoking fear among investors. In frontier and smaller emerging markets, that fear weighs heavily on asset prices, often sending them well below what the underlying business fundamentals suggest. Horacia Naidoo-McCarthy, a manager in the Institutional Clients team, is joined by portfolio managers Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and Varshan Maharaj to explore opportunities in unloved or overlooked markets amid uncertainty. Using some examples from the Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund’s investment universe, they discuss the distinction between structural and cyclical risk, how deep fundamental research can uncover high-quality businesses hidden in plain sight, and where patient long-term investors may be rewarded for leaning into risk when fear dominates asset prices. Frontier Markets Equity Fund: Focusing on value amid market volatility · Allan Gray website

Last year’s strong market returns renewed optimism in South Africa after years of sluggish growth, but many investors are wondering whether the country has truly reached a turning point or is merely in the midst of a false dawn. Allan Gray portfolio managers Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor are joined by ESG analyst Raine Adams to discuss whether the country’s reform narrative is on track. They also explore the structural factors shaping the economic environment, including energy, water and logistics, and share views on whether local asset prices can withstand global shocks. Tipping point or false dawn? South Africa’s defining question · Allan Gray website

For many investors, 2025 intensified the behavioural pressures that shape investment decisions. Markets reached record highs, even as global growth slowed and political tides turned across major economies. Amid these contrasts, investors and advisers were reminded just how crucial it is to manage behaviour. Falling prey to inherent behavioural biases and knee-jerk reactions when markets shift are well-known ways to hinder performance and erode returns. In conversation with Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker, leading behavioural finance expert and author Dr Daniel Crosby explores habits and hacks that personal and professional investors can employ to navigate volatile markets, avoid cognitive traps and enhance their long-term investment success. Allan Gray website · Why behaviour shapes long-term investment success more than performance

Is perfectionism costing us more than we realise in mental health, life and investment decision-making? Our head of Group Savings and Investments, Shaheed Mohamed, and Dr Thomas Curran, a leading academic on perfectionism and bestselling author, explore how striving for perfection can undermine long-term outcomes. Their conversation ranges from burnout and analysis paralysis to the hidden cost of chasing short-term gains. They also delve into the difference between perfection and excellence, the role of behavioural bias in investing, and the value of cultivating self-compassion and working towards realistic goals. Allan Gray website

While what worked for the last 40 years of investing may not work for the next 40, history offers valuable lessons for the path ahead. Chief investment officer Duncan Artus and renowned author and publisher Grant Williams unpick past events and explore future opportunities. From Japan’s decades-long battle with deflation and the unique opportunities in its bond market to the rise of gold as a counterweight to fiat currency, they reflect on market cycles across regions and eras. The conversation spans geopolitics and power, inflation, disruptor industries and the slow pivot from virtual to virtuous value. ·

There is often a great disparity between a stock’s market value and what it is fundamentally worth. In conversation with portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Mark Dunley-Owen, portfolio manager from our offshore partner, Orbis, explores global investment opportunities beyond those currently in vogue. They delve into high-conviction picks in China, standout businesses in frontier and emerging markets, and promising US mid-cap industrials, as the rise of AI ripples across sectors. Against the backdrop of shifting geopolitics, they remind investors of the importance of challenging dominant market narratives to avoid overpaying – a key factor in achieving long-term outperformance. Allan Gray website

With government debt levels at historic highs and inflationary pressures lingering, fiscal dominance is reshaping the global monetary landscape. Central banks are increasingly caught in a delicate balancing act – controlling inflation, while also managing the burden of sovereign debt and excess liquidity. At the same time, the US dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency is facing growing scrutiny. Amid this evolving environment, gold is reasserting itself as a trusted store of value. Horacia Naidoo-McCarthy, Institutional Clients manager, hosts portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and investment analyst Umar-Farooq Kagee to explore a wide range of themes – from the recent gold rally to fiscal dominance and safe-haven assets. Allan Gray website · Rebuilding the global monetary order with bricks of gold

Shifting consumer patterns and behaviour. Disruptive innovations. Generational changes. These are not simply headlines; they are real challenges being navigated by investors. However, that is not all they are. They are also opportunity creators for investors who have done their homework and are deeply focused on fundamentals. Allan Gray portfolio managers Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Jithen Pillay and Siphesihle Zwane delve into British American Tobacco, AB InBev and Disney – three large, long-standing businesses that have managed to reinvent themselves despite existing within rapidly evolving industries, experiencing major changes in their core economics and having made major acquisitions in recent times.

Global investors have been on a rollercoaster ride in the wake of President Trump’s announcement of an array of reciprocal tariffs which rocked global stock markets, initially sending US shares tumbling and then rebounding as investors hung onto news headlines as a key determinant of prices. But prices shouldn’t be confused with value, and the extreme volatility serves as a stark reminder to investors that paying a premium for optimism is dangerous and hefty price tags should be interrogated. In a wide-ranging conversation, Institutional Clients manager Horacia Naidoo-McCarthy and Rob Perrone, a senior investment specialist at our offshore partner, Orbis, explore the current global investment universe, explain why “great expectations” appear to be baked into markets and discuss many of the compelling opportunities in less popular markets. Orbis Global Balanced: Defensively positioned to deliver long-term returns · The conflict between price and fundamentals

South African listed property has shifted from being a leading wealth creator in the early 2000s to one of the weakest performers over the past decade on the back of sluggish economic growth, ongoing infrastructure challenges and the impact of COVID-19 on retail and office space demand. Over the last year, the sector has shown signs of recovery. Is it time to cement the opportunity, or should it be approached with caution? In conversation with Allan Gray portfolio manager Siphesihle Zwane, investment analysts Ghiete van Zyl and Umar-Farooq Kagee explore how we apply our long-term investment approach when considering opportunities in listed property. They also unpack the distinctive features of this asset class and explain the fundamental drivers of the sector’s longer-term prospects. Allan Gray website

Many investors focus on trying to figure out how new technologies might change the world so that they can identify and back the likely winners. But according to renowned Irish economist and bestselling author David McWilliams, the greatest, enduring technological innovation of modern civilisation is not artificial intelligence or the internet – it is money. In conversation with Allan Gray chief investment officer Duncan Artus, McWilliams explains why he believes that money – a social technology – has changed the direction of humanity, and why it continues to influence the development of the world. Through money, we take a tour of the global investment universe, discussing everything from Trump and trade wars to credit cycles and currencies. Allan Gray website · Allan Gray | Could 2025 be the most consequential year in our lifetime?

The US has dominated global news flow in the wake of the presidential election, and market-moving headlines continue to present the temptation to act on impulse. As investors who focus on the fundamentals, the “great election year” has challenged Allan Gray and our offshore partner, Orbis, to continue to filter the signals from the noise to identify compelling long-term opportunities. In this episode, portfolio manager Tim Acker is joined by Orbis portfolio manager Ben Preston. They touch on the impact of the US election on the markets, delve into how Orbis is exploring potential in the Korean market and biopharmaceuticals, and reveal enhancements to Orbis’ investment process. Allan Gray website

As sentiment towards the South African economy improves following the formation of the government of national unity, some of the major retailers are seeing improved share performance. Lower oil prices, extended periods of uninterrupted power supply and the recent interest rate cut, which heralds a shift in policy, are notable short-term tailwinds to the sector. However, the longer-term prospects for SA retailers may be different. In a post-pandemic world where time-starved consumers face surging living costs, the battle for market share requires a balance between pricing, quality and convenience. Portfolio managers Siphesihle Zwane, Jithen Pillay and Kamal Govan discuss the thinking behind the retail exposure in the Allan Gray funds. They also delve into the performance drivers for Spar, Shoprite, Pick n Pay and Woolworths and explore key themes influencing the sector. Allan Gray website · Rate-cutting cycle kicks off

Global elections have been a dominant force this year, with sentiment around polling and election results driving volatility in many markets. The ANC’s drastic decline at the polls and the formation of a government of national unity have been of keen interest to investors in SA Inc. Abroad, we have seen Labour take the lead by a landslide in the UK general election and the US presidential race heat up as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump increase their efforts to return to the White House. In this conversation, portfolio managers Thalia Petousis and Sean Munsie join Product Development manager Vuyo Mroxiso to explore the impact of the great election year on financial markets and explain how political change is reshaping the opportunity set for long-term investors. Allan Gray | Unit Trusts · Introducing the Allan Gray Interest Fund and the Allan Gray Income Fund

The new two-pot retirement system has been designed to improve retirement outcomes for South Africans, while allowing some access to retirement savings in case of severe financial stress. However, there are some hidden risks that investors should be aware of to ensure they don’t inadvertently offset its intended benefits. Richard Carter, head of Assurance, is joined by Shaun Duddy, head of Product Development, to explore what the new rules mean for investors and their retirement planning. In this conversation, they explain the complexities, clear up common misconceptions and highlight the missteps investors should avoid to achieve better results. Two-pot retirement system

Periods of heightened uncertainty are inevitable when you are investing over the long term. And when it is not clear when or how things might change, multi-asset portfolio construction becomes an increasingly complex task. For some time, our offshore partner, Orbis, has warned that the environment appears to be changing, noting stickier global inflation, a shifting geopolitical landscape and higher risk-free rates. With key national elections across the globe, the transition to green energy and the rise of artificial intelligence increasing the noise, long-term investors must consider a host of additional variables as they pursue meaningful returns. In conversation with Orbis portfolio manager Alec Cutler, Nshalati Hlungwane, a manager in our Institutional Clients team, explores the global investment universe and finds out how Orbis is thinking about its multi-asset strategies in the current environment. Allan Gray website · Orbis Global Balanced: Investing through the cycles

Investing in frontier markets is not for the faint-hearted. But for those brave enough to look beyond material risks, such as political instability, currency fluctuations and poor liquidity, many of these smaller markets provide fertile hunting ground for compelling ideas and exposure to sectors that are not available in South Africa. In conversation with Grant Pitt, head of Institutional, portfolio managers Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and Varshan Maharaj discuss the themes shaping frontier markets and explain how they navigate the risks as they pursue long-term returns. Frontier markets: Innovative industry leaders drive returns

The commonly accepted wisdom is that if we want a glimpse into the future of South Africa’s financial services sector, we should take a look at the United Kingdom’s financial landscape and delay the experience by a few years. In this conversation, Dan Brocklebank, UK head of our offshore partner, Orbis, joins portfolio manager Jithen Pillay to explain how key themes, such as tighter regulation, artificial intelligence and increasing geopolitical tension, are shaping the future of asset management and financial advice. They explore how a handful of trends are challenging the status quo and presenting opportunities for those willing to embrace change. Allan Gray website · 50 years of investing in an evolving ecosystem

With 2024 set to be a news-heavy year, investors are speculating about everything from what interest rates might do next, to the outcome of elections around the world. Given the levels of uncertainty, many are finding it hard to avoid panicking and making rash decisions based on emotions. Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker is joined by renowned behavioural psychology expert and bestselling author Morgan Housel. In the conversation, Morgan explores many of the behavioural biases that erode wealth during periods of heightened risk and explains how we can improve our long-term investment outcomes by focusing our efforts on the things that stay the same, rather than the variables that are out of our control. · Allan Gray website

The Investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis have both been talking about the huge disparities in global valuations for some time. There are pockets of the market that are incredibly cheap, but many of the most popular regions and sectors are eye-wateringly expensive. For a moment last year, it seemed as though these disparities were beginning to narrow amid rising inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes. But in 2023, things snapped back. Bond yields have risen sharply, while the areas that tend to be most vulnerable to rising rates, such as technology, have counter-intuitively also continued to rise. In this episode, Radhesen Naidoo, Allan Gray’s joint head of Institutional Clients and the client-servicing lead for Orbis in South Africa, hosts Orbis portfolio managers Alec Cutler and Ben Preston. As they move through world markets, they highlight many of the exciting opportunities for patient investors and explain how Orbis’s Global Equity and Global Balanced strategies differ in their approaches. Offshore investing · The magnificent middle · Orbis: Navigating market change

When it comes to investing, marginal improvements can make a significant difference to investment returns over time. James Aitken, the founder of Aitken Advisors, has spent three decades gaining a deep understanding of the global financial system’s plumbing. He has carefully studied markets and investors to identify the subtle differences that can help us become “a little less wrong” and produce meaningfully better outcomes over time. In conversation with Allan Gray’s chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, James shares the key things investors need to keep in mind as they traverse global markets. Allan Gray website · More insights from Allan Gray · 50 years of creating long-term wealth for our clients

Buoyed by the ongoing excitement around artificial intelligence, the so-called “magnificent seven” (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, MSFT, Nvidia and Tesla) have been able to count themselves among this year’s biggest winners. And it is easy to understand why: They are great businesses at the forefront of the latest tech developments, and they are expected to deliver exceptional growth. That said, history reminds us that it is exceptionally hard to exceed high expectations over the long term – particularly when they are already baked into a company’s share price. In conversation with Tamryn Lamb, Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker and Graeme Forster, portfolio manager at our offshore partner, Orbis, explain why we share the belief that good, undervalued businesses with fewer hurdles to overcome remain the best bet for long-term investors. They also delve into some of their favourite global investment ideas. Orbis Global Equity: Value in a changing Japan · Local investment update: Balancing caution and optimism

Over the last five years, deteriorating domestic conditions and rapidly developing global trends have seen some well-known stocks, and even entire industries and markets, fall in and out of favour. From Ramaphoria and the COVID-19 pandemic, to the collapse of Steinhoff and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, investors have been tasked with figuring out who the winners might be in a very complex environment. In conversation with investment analyst Siphesihle Zwane, portfolio manager Jacques Plaut and investment analyst Pieter Koornhof discuss some of the notable winners and losers of the last five years. With the benefit of hindsight, they share some enduring lessons that investors can glean from the not-so-distant past and explain how we apply our investment approach in the current environment. Capitec: The way to build a bank · Four contrarian investment questions to ask in 2023

Companies, and their shareholders, are facing increasing levels of scrutiny from the media, activists and the public for the impact they have on the environment and society. As we consider many of the recent headline-grabbing corporate failures, it becomes clear that companies that fail to consider and manage environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors often prove to be poor investments and destroy shareholder value over the long term. In conversation with Nshalati Hlungwane, a manager in the Institutional Clients team, ESG analyst Raine Adams and governance analyst Nicole Hamman separate the fundamentals from the fads, as they explain our approach to investing with ESG in mind. They also detail many of the steps we take as stewards of our clients’ capital to ensure that we are acting responsibly and holding companies to account. Taking stock of our stewardship efforts · ESG: The fundamentals vs the fads · Stewardship Report

In conversation with portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Matthew Spencer from our offshore partner, Orbis, explains why the investment team believes that the stock market boom over the last few years is making way for a global stockpicker’s paradise. As the deflation of the “Everything Bubble” continues, long-term investors who remain focused on understanding the fundamentals of the companies they invest in are well placed to be rewarded in years to come. In an effort to make sense of the current environment, Rory and Matthew delve into the major global market shifts that are shaping the opportunity set and unpack some of the portfolios’ most compelling ideas. Memory: Industry cycles, not the business cycle · Orbis Global Balanced: Investing through the cycles

From persistent loadshedding to deteriorating national infrastructure, South Africa’s challenges are well known. The recurring negative headlines have prompted many investors to look into increasing their offshore exposure as they ask themselves whether investing in the local market is still worth the risk. In conversation with portfolio manager Tim Acker, investment analysts Siphesihle Zwane and Jithen Pillay discuss the impact of the major local challenges on various industries. They share their thoughts on the South African investment landscape and the global themes that are shaping the local opportunity set, and explain why Allan Gray remains optimistic about a number of attractive JSE-listed companies. Peering through the smoke · AB InBev: The king of beer · Shedding dark on the issue of South Africa’s economic growth

As memories of masks and lockdown restrictions fade, investors face a new list of challenges. Locally, loadshedding has eroded business margins and is casting a shadow on the market. Abroad, the threat of a new banking crisis has proven extremely unsettling and is having a negative impact on sentiment. In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor, the longest-serving member of the Allan Gray Investment team, reflect on a range of macroeconomic issues as they explain how the current geopolitical dynamics and tightening monetary policy regime are impacting the long-term investment environment. The consequences of South Africa’s greylisting ·

2022 will probably be remembered for being the year of war and inflation, and the end of a decade of “free money” distorting markets. To put it in perspective, a passive 60:40 offshore balanced fund delivered probably its worst performance in US dollars in 100 years, sending a clear message to investors: Things have changed. Allan Gray chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, joins Tamryn Lamb, head of Retail, to unpack why the year was a turning point for markets and trends. They cover everything from AI and energy to cryptos and tech stocks, as they discuss our approach to navigating the risks and taking advantage of the opportunities that lie ahead. Was 2022 a secular turning point and if so, what does it mean for the years ahead? · Investment update: How to invest in a changing world

Although banks are generally geared to economic activity, many local banks proved to be resilient through the COVID-19 pandemic and have been good investments since. But in the current period of high global inflation and slowing economic activity, how will the local banking sector fare? Are there still long-term opportunities? Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker poses this question to investment analysts Pieter Koornhof and Siphesihle Zwane, who have spent time researching some of the biggest names in the sector and determining where the best opportunities lie. Capitec: The way to build a bank · · Do South African banks offer value in a COVID-19 battered world?

Retirement reform is on the horizon as the National Treasury takes steps to implement the proposed “two-pot retirement system”. The proposed system has the dual aim of creating limited access to retirement fund assets to help savers cope with short-term emergencies and improving the preservation of retirement savings – ultimately producing better retirement saving outcomes. Allan Gray’s head of Assurance, Richard Carter, joins Umbrella Fund specialist Mica Townsend to discuss the challenges with the current system, the complexities of the proposed changes and what the two-pot system will mean for investors, administrators, advisers and the country’s savings pool. Making sense of the proposed two-pot retirement system · Navigating a changing retirement savings system · Upcoming changes to provident and provident preservation funds · Save for your retirement

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, hosted by Allan Gray portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Dan Brocklebank, head of Orbis UK, reflects on the most valuable investment truths he has learnt as he celebrates two decades at the firm. Dan joined our offshore partner during the dotcom boom and has seen our shared investment philosophy play out through multiple cycles. During the conversation, he explains how Orbis thinks about investing in an environment shaped by rising geopolitical tension, a growing global energy crisis and rampant inflation. Dan also shares some insight into where Orbis is finding compelling opportunities today, why forecasters are so bad at predicting what will happen tomorrow and why we still believe that the best way to build wealth is by adopting a long-term approach. Orbis Global Equity: The duration dislocation · Orbis investment update: Risks in the real world

Investors in commodity miners and producers have found themselves in one of the better places in the market since the pandemic, owing partly to a lift in demand as countries embarked on stimulus programmes and supply-side constraints keeping a lid on production. Local mining shares were one of the key driving forces behind the FTSE/JSE All Share Index hitting a new high earlier this year. As local investors, we think we are pretty well-versed in analysing and valuing commodity producers, but when you go to a global asset allocation level, there is not nearly the same amount of interest, outside of hedge funds and some niche managers. Allan Gray portfolio managers Sean Munsie and Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and investment analyst Jithen Pillay discuss the cyclical nature of commodities and delve into the various macro issues that are currently impacting commodity prices. They also explore the energy transition and share their views on some of the new opportunities in the sector. On the commodity boom and other South African fables (and foibles)

South African inflation just hit its highest peak since 2009, as it accelerated to 7.4% in June, in line with the global trend. Over in the US, inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1% last month. As households around the world grapple with rising food and fuel costs, central banks are faced with the difficult task of hiking interest rates to rein in inflation. Allan Gray portfolio manager Sandy McGregor started his career in the 1970s when, much like today, the world was facing rampant global inflation and an energy crisis. In conversation with Allan Gray portfolio manager Thalia Petousis, Sandy reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting the world. Taking us through a range of scenarios, he shares some important lessons from the past and looks to the future, reminding long-term investors that periods of strife often present opportunities. Investing · Markets and economy · Allan Gray

From the global technology stock sell-off and rising inflation, to the war in Ukraine exacerbating a global energy crisis, investors are tasked with navigating an increasingly complex and volatile environment. In the first episode of the Allan Gray podcast, Tamryn Lamb hosts a conversation with Allan Gray’s chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, and Alec Cutler, portfolio manager at our offshore partner, Orbis. Delving into many of the critical issues shaping the environment, they explain how they are thinking about these global events and positioning the portfolios for a range of potential outcomes. What has gone wrong with Naspers? · Food price inflation: Are we watching “That ‘70s Show”? · Invest offshore