The Belarus Factor: Power, Politics and the Region with Ivan Kravtsov

In this episode, we speak with Tatsiana Khomich, the sister of Belarusian opposition leader Maria Kalesnikava. Tatsiana was part of Viktar Babaryka’s 2020 campaign team and remains an active member of his team in exile. After leaving Belarus, she became a human rights advocate and one of the leading international voices for political prisoners.We talk about the recent release of 14 political prisoners — including the husband of opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya — following the visit of U.S. Presidential Envoy Gen. Keith Kellogg. While cautious, this development offers a glimmer of hope for progress in Belarus’s deepening human rights crisis.We also explore the current state of U.S.–Belarus dialogue, the ongoing repression inside the country, and what EU member states can do to support the release of those still behind bars.Sign the petition to support political prisoners: https://releasenow.orgFollow Tatsiana's social media:https://x.com/TatsianaKhomichhttps://www.instagram.com/tatsiana_khomich/

In the latest episode of Belarus Factor, Ivan Kravtsov engages in a sharp, insightful conversation with Kamil Klysinski, Senior Fellow at the Center for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Warsaw, who has spent nearly 20 years analyzing Belarusian politics. They dive straight into the geopolitical game: Belarus seems sidelined in critical peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, despite its pivotal position in the conflict. Klysinski delivers a striking message—"everything is on the table," yet Belarus struggles to find a seat. This episode unpacks Lukashenko’s eroding autonomy, intensifying dependence on Russia, and how Western sanctions are reshaping Belarus' political and economic landscape. Is there room left for pragmatic diplomacy, or is Belarus trapped in political isolation?Discover more from Kamil Klysinski on his OSW Think Tank profile:https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/eksperci/kamil-klysinski

In this episode of Belarus Factor, host Ivan Kravtsov is joined by Dmitry Podolinsky, a seasoned strategic consultant with deep expertise in post-Soviet politics. Together, they dissect the shifting dynamics of global power, from the impact of Trump’s foreign policy and the Russo-Ukrainian war to Europe’s economic stagnation and the evolving role of Belarus in regional security.As international negotiations unfold, what position does Belarus truly hold? Is Lukashenko maneuvering for greater autonomy, or is Minsk sinking deeper into Moscow’s orbit? Can the Belarusian opposition influence these high-stakes talks? And is the world heading toward a new era where Might is Right prevails once again?Join us for a deep dive into geopolitics, diplomacy, and the uncertain future of Belarus.🎧 Tune in now!📲 Connect with Dmitry Podolinsky on Instagram: @dpodolinski

Today, I joinAndrei Yahorau to discuss the impact of the U.S. government's foreign assistance freeze on Belarusian opposition and civil society. We also try to answer the most acute question:Is democracy promotion even useful?Andrei Yahorau is a former speaker of the Coordination Council of the Belarusian opposition in Exile. He is a political theorist who studied foreign aid to Belarus and has been a professional working for the development of Belarusian civic society for more than thirty years.Follow Andrei on:⁠Facebook⁠⁠Instagram

Episode 2: Belarus Under Trump—Political Prisoners, Diplomacy, and a Diplomat’s Perspective with Valery Kavaleuski Meet Valery Kavaleuski—a seasoned Belarusian diplomat with over eight years of service in the MFA, including a post at the Belarusian Embassy in Washington, D.C., and time at the World Bank. After 2020, he led the diplomatic efforts for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s team in Vilnius. Now, he’s launched his own think tank, the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, to shape Belarus’s future on the global stage. In this episode, we dive into: • The impact of President Trump’s latest executive actions on Belarus • Prospects for a Russo-Ukrainian peace deal • What’s ahead for Belarus in the 2025 presidential elections • Strategies to free political prisoners Follow Valery on social media to stay updated on his work and insights. Euro-Atlantic Agency Website Euro-Atlantic Agency Website Valery on X

The main focus of this episode: is the upcoming 2025 presidential elections in Belarus, which will occur on January 26th. He explains the historical context, the influence of elections on Belarusian politics, and the expected outcome where Alexander Lukashenko is likely to secure his seventh term. This is the first episode of the Belarus Factor podcast, host Ivan Kravtsov, an exiled democratic movement leader from Belarus, introduces the series to discuss various aspects of Belarus.