The CPTPP Podcast

As I read on the 29th April…Good bit of news for Canada and Mexico…now they just have to sort out a (new) trade deal with the US! Nothing formally yet re Costa Rica, but might not be far off…Costa Rica 🇨🇷 is close to finalizing its negotiations with the CPTPP to join as a full member.https://observador.cr/costa-rica-espera-concretar-en-pocos-dias-su-ingreso-al-acuerdo-transpacifico-acceso-al-15-del-pib-mundial/Good news re trade…#1Starting May 1, China's zero-tariff policy takes full effect for 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, as announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in a congratulatory message to the 39th African Union Summit on Feb. 14.#2#3 Whisky and the USBut…And also trade angst re the G2? WTO is also messy, so what about other trade groupsRCEP represents a more inclusive and incremental approach to meeting standards among a diverse group of economies, while CPTPP features a more focused membership.APEC is well placed to identify and advance practical opportunities for alignment, or at least greater coordination, between the CPTPP and the RCEP.Useful work could be done on mapping rules and identifying low-cost alignment opportunities between the CPTPP and the RCEP.https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202604/28/WS69f000bea310d6866eb45d95.htmlAh yes, the FTAAPhttps://mb.com.ph/2026/05/04/beijing-aims-to-merge-top-trade-blocs-into-one-massive-asia-pacific-deal I agree that ASEAN should give RCEP a chance…https://eastasiaforum.org/2026/04/30/asean-must-give-rcep-a-chance/….but is an expanded CPTPP a better idea than the WTO……yes, back to the push of Mark Carney, middle powers / CPTPP and the EU angles. But what about the (People’s) Republic of China role?(Re latter link https://www.mofa.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=95&s=121153 I tell you what I am looking forward to: The long-delayed summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is finalised for 14-15 May 2026 when Trump travels to Beijing.

Sorry for not sending out a podcast last week, but I was a bit ill...and I cannot be quite up to full health yet as I seem to regard the US-Mexico CPTPP sign-off agreement as being just under a month away, when clearly I should have said just under two months away! Will try better next week...Hope you find the general show notes below of use. UK-Mexico CPTPP trade to begin from 22 June 2026, following Mexico’s belated ratification of the UK’s accession protocol.Means Canada as the only member of the 12-nation bloc which has yet to approve UK membership.For Mexico, one key benefit will be a new 8,000-tonne UK tariff rate quota for bananas, with a special in-quota tariff rate of £40 per tonne.https://borderlex.net/2026/04/23/uk-mexico-cptpp-trade-to-begin-in-june/ Vietnam is the 2026 CPTPP chairThe CPTPP is considered a vital "next-generation" trade agreement for Vietnam, aiding its goal to become an industrialized nation by 2045, with a particular focus on gaining deeper access to key markets.Couple of weeks ago…To Lam, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee and president of Vietnam, arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for a state visit to China through Friday.China is the first country To Lam visits following his recent election as Vietnamese president.Vietnam expressed its support for China’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), in line with the agreement’s standards and procedures. Vietnam also voiced support for China hosting APEC in 2026, while China backed Vietnam’s hosting of APEC in 2027. The sides further affirmed support for countries to engage in equal negotiations to address trade issues through measures consistent with the rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).https://vietnamlawmagazine.vn/vietnam-china-issue-joint-statement-on-deepening-comprehensive-strategic-cooperative-partnership-in-new-era-79242.html Vietnam / China ‘One China’...Brunei-linked ‘Taiwan application to join the CPTPP’Under China's influence, officials from member states sometimes refrain from explicitly stating their support or opposition to Taiwan's application for membership, instead using diplomatic language such as "the relevant authorities are still considering it" to appease Taiwan; or they may verbally express support but fail to take concrete actions to assist Taiwan. Furthermore, given the high degree of overlap between the CPTPP and RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), and China's existing membership in RCEP, while also applying to join the CPTPP, suggests that China is not concerned about when it will join.However, China has already signed bilateral free trade agreements with Peru and Chile, leaving only Canada, Mexico, and the UK without bilateral or regional trade agreements with China. For China, if the existing tariff and non-tariff treatment measures with these three countries under the WTO framework are sufficient, it won't be in a hurry to join the CPTPP. Otherwise, it would need to further expand its market opening and then use its own stalled application to hinder Taiwan's application—which would be perfectly convenient.https://www.daipai.tw/article.php?SerialNo=66232 Japan has been building CPTPP…Vietnam pledges to support Argentina in accessing ASEAN, Asia-Pacific marketsThe ambassador spoke highly of the commencement of negotiations on a preferential trade agreement (PTA) between Vietnam and the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) in December 2025, appreciating Argentina’s proactive role and support in realising this milestone.During a working session between ASEAN ambassadors and Argentina’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, International Trade and Worship Pablo Quirno in Buenos Aires, Nguyet underscored economic and trade cooperation as a pillar of the Vietnam – Argentina Comprehensive Partnership.He highlighted Argentina’s strengths in civil nuclear and space technology, expressing interest in cooperation with ASEAN countries in these fields. He added that Argentina is considering an application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-pledges-to-support-argentina-in-accessing-asean-asia-pacific-markets-post341354.vnp The trans-Pacific bloc is set to admit further new members in coming years.Costa Rica is reported to be close to finalising accession negotiations launched in late 2024. A senior source from a member government told Borderlex this week that once Costa Rica’s accession talks had been wrapped up, Uruguay would be “next in line” to join.

Thank you for listening to The CPTPP Podcast. A few show notes below for your further review, and look forward to providing you with a further update next Monday. Where did I get that title from? South Korea and the CPTPP https://asaninst.org/bbs/board.php?bo_table=s1_3_eng&wr_id=105Middle powers only?China, Canada, the CPTPP…and the WTO?https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-china-indo-pacific-trade-pact/ WTO and China and ‘who will write the alternative rules’ And in an article titled: “Trade Explainer: EU-CPTPP Cooperation and the Search for New Coalitions”, was interesting to note: If the WTO does manage to stabilize the e-commerce moratorium and advance its digital agenda, EU-CPTPP cooperation could reinforce that momentum. If not, Yaoundé may be remembered as another confirmation that the center of gravity is shifting. Middle-power coalitions are no longer waiting for consensus to emerge. They are building it elsewhere.https://www.gmfus.org/news/trade-explainer-eu-cptpp-cooperation-and-search-new-coalitions?utm_source=Concep&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=World+Wire%3a+GMF+Launches+the+European+Defense+Roadmap+Initiative_04%2f10%2f2026 Lots of new global trade survival tactics to keep focusing onThanks, Chris Bailey

Show notes can be found below. As always, please feel free to contact me at [email protected] thanks!Podcast 11 - Ten Pods Down, Much More To Come!Ten podcasts down but much more to learn in this changing global trade worldPodcast 1 ‘Goodbye TPP’ talked about Trump’s decision three days into his first presidency Podcast 2 ‘The U.K. Joins’ Podcast 3 “How Big Is Your New Trade Deal?” Podcast 4: ‘Global New Joiners…Or Not?’Podcast 5: CPTPP 2026 Chats So Far Podcast 6: ‘Entering A New Era’Podcast 7: ‘Trade, Disagreements and The Wealth of Nations’‘This breakdown has been building over time…more recently Great Powers have been using economic integration as weapons…tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, and supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited’‘Combine in a third path for impact’ rather than just trying to gain favour CPTPP-EU is a ‘modernisation of WTO rules’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNU0d0gu84M Podcast 8: CPTPP’s “Shared Visions – Shared Actions”Podcast 9: Plurilateral Trade Route Talks(plur-lat-er-al)Podcast 10: April Fools’ Day (and Global Trade)And WTO trade meeting disappointments.As for this week…03/04/26 -On the 3rd, former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda published recommendations for maintaining and strengthening free trade. He pointed out that the World Trade Organization (WTO) is dysfunctional in the face of issues such as overproduction in China and the tariff policies of the US Trump administration. He called for the creation of a new framework by Japan, Europe, Southeast Asia, and other countries that incorporates high levels of trade discipline.https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA01B6Z0R00C26A4000000/ A point reiterated here by GZero Media: The bottom line: Tariffs didn’t sink the global economy. They made it more brittle, more fragmented, and more dependent on everything else going right. With Iran now in the mix, that’s a far shakier bet.https://www.gzeromedia.com/graphic-truth/where-us-tariffs-stand-one-year-after-liberation-day And this was good: ‘The CPTPP is less constraining than people think…rather than see it as a grand policy alliance, it was more useful to see it as a platform for trade that may help us once WTO is fully non-operational’. Very good! And so lots more to talk about re the CPTPP, trade, and related.

Please find some show notes below. If you have any further comments, please contact me via email at [email protected] good to read…The European Union and Australia agreed to a free-trade deal, wrapping up almost a decade of talks. 8 years in the making. More stimulus after the Trump global tariff push; will help cheese and wine, luxury cars tariffs be phased out, some food names will evolve too, critical minerals a positive. “Open rules based trade change matters more than transactions” Meat was biggest sticking point, Australia now got quotas. Steel no changes for both David Henig is Director of the UK Trade Policy Project.The EU-Mercosur trade dealInteresting to see this chat from U vdL the PM of New ZealandPublished on the eve of the fourteenth WTO Ministerial Conference (MC14), this new report addresses a profound crisis: the global trading system has moved from a period of gradual realignment into a an open rupture. Economic interdependence is being aggressively weaponised through tariffs and coercive statecraft, and major economies are increasingly sidelining core WTO obligations.https://institutdelors.eu/en/publications/after-the-rupture-eu-cptpp-responses-to-a-changing-global-trading-order/ EU are planning to vote on the US trade deal (July 2025)https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/03/26/trade-carney-canada-eu-us-trump-wto-00844444 The World Trade Organization is at a “critical juncture” and requires deep, structural reform, the European Union and members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) said on Friday, citing mounting challenges to the multilateral trading system.https://millichronicle.com/2026/03/64169.htmlJoint Ministerial Statement from the EU and the CPTPP at the 14th WTO Ministerial ConferenceA Joint Ministerial Statement from the European Union and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership on the occasion of the 14th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organisation.https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-ministerial-statement-eu-and-cptpp-14th-wto-ministerial-conference-2026-03-27_en WTO risks sliding into irrelevance, EU trade commissioner warns-ft"Services already account for more than half of economic activity in most economies. But their importance goes far beyond their direct contribution to GDP and employment," she stressed.DG Okonjo-Iweala highlighted the new opportunities created by services, particularly those powered by digital technologiesWTO talks in Cameroon in March ended in a deadlock over whether to continue the freeze on customs duties for digital content.World Trade Organization talks ended in a deadlock early on March 30 as Brazil blocked a bid by the U.S. and other countries to extend a moratorium on customs duties for electronic transmissions, dealing a fresh blow to the embattled trade bodyInitial phase of the EIB-WTO Trade and Investment Facilitation InitiativeChina to support technical assistance projects on investment facilitationUS allies between a rock and an ever-harder placehttps://eastasiaforum.org/2026/03/30/us-allies-between-a-rock-and-an-ever-harder-place/ On April Fools’ Day we should be thinking much more about “Shared Visions – Shared Actions” not bilateral trade deals

Show notes and links from this week's podcast below. If you have any further questions or observations please contact me at [email protected] you again for listening. Podcast 9: Plurilateral Trade Route Talks(plur-lat-er-al)The WTO's 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) will take place from 26 to 29 March 2026 in Yaoundé, Cameroon…and there is lots of pre-event talk:WTO Reform Deadlock Pushes Countries Toward Alternative Global Trade Allianceshttps://humanonline.org/news/wto-reform-deadlock-pushes-countries-toward-alternative-global-trade-alliances Failure to reform WTO may prompt some countries to seek other free-trade optionshttps://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-wto-reform-meeting-cameroon-free-trade-eu-cptpp/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter WTO members warn that if next week’s WTO trade ministerial in Yaoundé fails to yield a clear reform roadmap—particularly for the frozen dispute settlement body—some will turn to plurilateral routes like the EU–CPTPP axis to advance free trade.https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/wto-reform-deadlock-prompt-countries-seek-options-free-trade/ Much more to come next week on this! Back to CPTPP matters after last week’s “Shared Visions – Shared Actions” podcast‘The bloc's future direction under Vietnam's 2026 chairmanship will depend on its ability to forge a unified strategy for both expansion and the upgrading of its existing rules.’https://itradecouncil.org/blog/2026-03-18-the-pacific-pact-s-paradox-is-the-cptpp-s-popularity-a-threaI read one article talking about https://gaimmigrationlawyers.com/cptpp-work-permit-canada-australia-japan/ Work Permit Opportunities Through the CPTPPUnder the CPTPP there are many options for Australian and Japanese temporary foreign workers to come to Canada.Mentions of professional and technician workers plus extended work permits as a consequence of CPTPP membership…which makes you wonder about how other CPTPP members interact on such matters. Certainly it will be more efficient with its ‘gold standard’ trade rules set-up. I also read some mining sector angst too entitled: Coal, eh?!Talking about Australia, interesting also to read more than once that: Meanwhile, And in a couple of articles the Philippines secures support for its entry into the CPTPP, after receiving the backing of the trade bloc's members, an Australian official confirmedhttps://es.vietnamplus.vn/filipinas-logra-respaldo-para-su-ingreso-al-cptpp-post233428.vnphttps://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1271348Lots to keep on thinking aboutBut later this week, this brings us back to the WTO…and global or plurilateral (plur-lat-er-al) trade thinking.

The show notes are below. As always please contact me at [email protected] if you have any questions or commits. Thank you very much for listening! Podcast 8: CPTPP’s “Shared Visions – Shared Actions”Busy global world re trade and tariffs After last month’s Supreme Court decision, the Trump presidency is now talking to many countries about Section 301 and Section 122 tariff implementation including some CPTPP members including Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico, Japan among many other global economies including the EU and India. Hmm! In other CPTPP news, interesting to here about the new president of Chile José Antonio Kast Rist Chile is the latest Latin American country to lurch to the right as voters back law-and-order candidates to fight the spread of organized crime.Kast, 60, trounced Jeannette Jara, a communist, in December's election run-off to clinch the presidency on his third attempt.He is Chile's most hardline leader since the brutal 1973-1990 dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet -- whom Kast greatly admires.Last week, Kast was among a dozen right-wing allies of US President Donald Trump who gathered in Florida to seal a new US-led "Counter Cartel" military coalition.https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260311-chile-s-kast-most-right-wing-president-since-pinochet-takes-office?utm_source=semafor As for new potential CPTPP members, the president of Uruguay mentioned positives about expanding deals via joining not only the CPTPP, but also the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an alliance comprising 10 countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), after the The European Union and four Mercosur countries – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – reached a political agreement on 6 December 2024Re the CPTPP specifically, the president was quoted as observing: "We're going to leave the CPTPP on track and maybe even a little more"https://www.elpais.com.uy/informacion/politica/el-gobierno-estima-que-ingreso-a-la-alianza-comercial-anunciado-por-orsi-se-concretara-en-este-periodo?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=elpaisuytw&utm_source=Twitter As for Costa Rica, I saw the country’s foreign trade minister was in Canada last week to talk with his Canadian peerNo specific timing update news though, yet. A few other interesting articles, an interesting piece last week about Indonesia and the CPTPP which I have put in the show notes talking about how: “CPTPP offers a unique platform for ambition: to deepen trade, expand opportunities for businesses and uphold high standards.” from an article in the Jakarta Post. Nice article, noting how a broader CPTPP creates a more coherent environment for trade and investment. https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2026/03/13/indonesias-cptpp-accession-unlocking-opportunity.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1773384385 Elsewhere in Asia, I read an article in Taiwan News noting that the country “seeks Australia's backing for CPTPP bid”, meeting a former Australian PM to help push the hopehttps://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6318548 Another akin article on the Central New Agency Taiwan website observing: “Former UK Trade Secretary: CPTPP aims to limit China's membership rights and should not be influenced by China”https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202603160271.aspx CPTPP remains very relevant; remember in last couple of podcast we talked at length at the big push - led by Canada’s PM Mark Carney - for Middle Powers and potential CPTPP-EU link-up angles. Yes, some early stage but - as noted at the start of today’s podcast - US tariff angst is making more political leaders think about where they are. And don’t forget we have the important WTO meeting in Cameroon occurring at the end of this month. More on that later this month! Before we get the WTO meeting review in a couple of weeks, next week’s podcast - ceteris paribus in a very changeable world - is going to be focused on whether there is any overt insights on what current CPTPP members are explicitly focused on for 2026. First senior officials’ meeting of CPTPP in 2026 opens in Hanoi under the theme “Shared Visions – Shared Actions” https://vietnamlawmagazine.vn/first-senior-officials-meeting-of-cptpp-in-2026-opens-in-hanoi-78922.html During the year, members are expected to focus on several priorities, including strengthening and upgrading the agreement to keep pace with global trade trends and advancing the accession process of new members to expand the scope of cooperation.Members will also review accession processes of economies applying to join the agreement, including Costa Rica and Uruguay, as well as other potential partners. Discussions will also cover trade and investment dialogue mechanisms between the CPTPP and external partners and measures to strengthen implementation capacity.Much more on this in next week’s podcast.

Shownotes from Chris Bailey. If you have any further questions please contact me at [email protected]***********Three weeks since my last podcast! The last podcast / CPTPP, and Middle Powers ‘entering a new era’Chat about potential CPTPP / EU talking about ‘a powerful near 40-nation mega trade bloc’.From the South China Morning PostA reported threat by US President Donald Trump to withdraw from the North American trade pact could push Canada closer to China, analysts say, even as his new global 15 per cent tariff has little immediate impact due to existing trade agreements.Washington, Ottawa and Mexico City are set to renegotiate terms of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) before a possible extension on July 1.Mark Carney was in ChinaAnd then in Australia 4th March at the Lowy Institute 04/03/26 Speaking at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney argued that the rules-based international order is not in transition but in rupture, and that middle powers like Canada and Australia cannot afford to wait for it to be restored.‘This breakdown has been building over time…more recently Great Powers have been using economic integration as weapons…tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, and supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited’‘Combine in a third path for impact’ rather than just trying to gain favour CPTPP-EU is a ‘modernisation of WTO rules’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNU0d0gu84M And then via the “The EU currently has bilateral free trade agreements with most CPTPP members, but it is still negotiating with Australia and Malaysia, and no talks are currently planned with Brunei…The EU and CPTPP countries doubt Washington’s threats can persist beyond the Trump administration, nor that its approach will ultimately succeed”https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/02/trump-tariffs-supreme-court-eu-cptpp-middle-powers-response 07/03/26 -Via The East Asia Forumhttps://eastasiaforum.org/2026/03/07/leverage-in-the-australia-china-iron-ore-trade/ Perfect not only with all the above but also into the upcoming WTO meeting later this month 26 to 29 March in Yaoundé, Cameroon.06/03/26 -WTO members on 5 March completed a series of meetings dedicated to advancing work on WTO reform. Over the past month, members have exchanged views on a draft ministerial statement and a work plan intended to frame the scope of reform efforts following the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) on 26-29 March. They also finalized preparations for the ministerial level political discussion on reform to be held at MC14 in Yaoundé, Cameroon. The reform facilitator, Ambassador Petter Ølberg of Norway, described the exchanges as substantive, thoughtful and conducted throughout in a positive spirit.At the meeting, China, Paraguay and the United Kingdom presented proposals they have put forward on reform. The facilitator acknowledged that some members may find the current version of the draft "less specific" than they would have preferred, while others may feel it remains "more prescriptive" than desired. He also noted that this draft carefully balances the perspectives of all 166 members, reconciling differing levels of ambition and specificity. The facilitator recognized that concerns amongst members on the draft persists, and he noted that further drafting alone will not resolve them.https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/refrm_05mar26_306_e.htm Adam Smith 250 years since the publication of The Wealth of Nations ‘An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, generally known as, The Wealth of Nations’ Key ideas of The Wealth of Nations - Specialism helps, interest groups want restrictions to help themselves, key is the living standards of people, individuals make better decisions than governments Adam Smith called it a violent attack on many of the then powers of Britain e.g. church, universities, East India Company, colonial system that leads to monopolies Took a time until the 19th century before free trade occurredUS Surpreme Court and ‘Who Wants to Enter a New Trade Era?’New general US tariffs of 10-15% Back to the current US president and the notion that: The United States has stated that the era of the World Trade Organization (WTO)'s basic rule of nondiscrimination – called "MFN," standing for "most-favored-nation," is over. Trump prefers basic bilaterals after all! Even the USAMCA is tricky to easily continue! Or as Adam Smith put it: "All for ourselves, ​and nothing for other people, seems, in every age of ​the world, ⁠to have been the vile maxim of the masters of mankind."

"Entering A New Era" is a reference to a lot of recent discussions about how the CPTPP may be very positively impacted by the recent 'Middle Powers' boosted awareness. This then leads onto a discussion about the CPTPP and the European Union (EU) potential closer discussion, as well as some potential angst at the USAMCA. Finally, there is an update about some recent news from Costa Rica and Uruguay, the two countries currently negotiating CPTPP entry. Please feel free to contact me at [email protected] if you have any questions or would like to make any comments. Thank you for reading and listening.

Welcome to the CPTPP PodcastI know, it is not the most catchy title, but at least I did not try to say the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership podcast. Meanwhile global trade is getting even more important to talk aboutPodcast 4: Global New Joiners…Or Not?Podcast 5: CPTPP 2026 Chats So FarIf you have any questions or observations then please contact me at [email protected]

Welcome to the CPTPP PodcastI know, it is not the most catchy title, but at least I did not try to say the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership podcast. Meanwhile, global trade is becoming even more important to talk about…so let’s talk about it! Episode 1 includes:Podcast 1: Goodbye TPPPodcast 2: The U.K. JoinsPodcast 3: How Big Is Your New Trade Deal?New podcasts every Monday.