The Elements of Deep Sea Mining

Steven Emerman, owner of Malach Consulting and a former Princeton and Cornell-trained geophysicist, brings an unusual perspective to deep sea mining. He came to it from decades of evaluating mining disclosures across the terrestrial mining industry. Commissioned by the Deep Sea Mining Campaign, Greenpeace International, and Mining Watch Canada, Emerman reviewed The Metals Company’s pre-feasibility study not as an ecological or policy document, but strictly as a financial and regulatory one. His conclusion: even under the company’s most optimistic assumptions — best-case metal prices, a below-standard discount rate, and a novel category of “recoverable resources” not recognized under SEC regulations — the project’s own numbers show it terminating at the end of year seven with zero profit.What makes this conversation particularly valuable for listeners tracking the commercial viability debate is Emerman’s grounding in mining industry norms. He walks through why the distinction between reserves and resources matters so much to investors, why the zero-tailings claim reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of ore processing chemistry, and why the assumed smelting and refining capacity in Indonesia involves layers of speculation that the PFS doesn’t adequately address. He’s careful to distinguish what the document does and doesn’t disclose and what it’s required to disclose under SEC regulations. His full report is available publicly and is referenced throughout this episode.* Emerman’s Report: Implications of the Metals Company Pre-Feasibility Study for Next Steps by the Company https://dsm-campaign.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Implications-of-The-Metals-Company-Pre-Feasibility-Study-for-Next-Steps-by-the-Company.pdfChapters00:00 – Introduction and context for the conversation01:03 – Who is Steven Emmerman? Background and consulting work04:14 – Previous involvement in deep-sea mining discussions05:20 – How this report came about06:33 – What “independence” means in consulting08:12 – Handling client pressure and report revisions11:02 – Personal views vs scope of the report12:32 – Podcast framing and approach to the discussion15:49 – What is a pre-feasibility study (PFS)?16:24 – The stage-gate process in mining projects18:23 – Internal vs public role of PFS documents20:00 – Regulation and the role of independent experts23:36 – What is a “qualified person”?25:42 – Key conclusion: should the project proceed?26:11 – How this compares to typical PFS evaluations This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode, I spoke with Kaja Lønn Fjærtoft, Global Policy Lead for Deep Sea Mining at WWF, about the policy and regulatory debates shaping the future of seabed mining.The conversation focuses heavily on Norway’s seabed minerals process, which has become one of the most closely watched national developments in the global deep sea mining debate. Kaja walks through how the regulatory framework works, why WWF believes the current process moved too quickly, and where the major points of disagreement lie between environmental groups, industry, and policymakers.Follow Kaja:LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/kajafjaertoft/Instagram: @snublefotaFollow WWF NorwayInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/wwfnorge/X (Twitter): https://x.com/WWFNorgeFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/WWFNorge/Chapters00:00 – Introduction: Marine Biology & Family Roots 07:05 – The Risks of "Adaptive Management" 16:45 – Understanding WWF’s Global Role 22:19 – Funding, Independence & Fact-Checking 28:09 – Oil & Gas Expertise vs. Deep-Sea Mining 41:49 – Norway’s "Opening Process" & Legal Framework 46:55 – Problems with the Government’s Impact Assessment 1:10:23 – Politics: Why the 2029 Postponement Matters 1:26:09 – International Waters & "The Common Heritage" Further ResourcesThe Future Is Circular (SINTEF Minerals report) - https://www.sintef.no/en/publications/publication/2073636/WWF Deep Sea Mining Hub - wwf.no/gruvedrift-på-havbunnen (Norway Office) or wwf.panda.org/deep_seabed (International)Norwegian Government White Paper - www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/meld.-st.-25-20222023/id2985856/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

How does complex, multivariate systems thinking shows up in both criticality and deep-sea mineralogy?The second part of this technical deep dive transitions from the geopolitical landscape of supply chains to the geological mysteries of the ocean floor. Pierre Josso shares his specialized expertise in geochemistry to explain how mineral deposits such as nodules and massive sulfides form over millions of years. This segment pulls back the curtain on the “mineral system approach,” detailing how scientists use environmental parameters like temperature and pressure to predict where these resources are hidden in the vastness of the deep sea.The conversation also tackles the complex intersection of cutting-edge science and international policy. Pierre explains the challenges of detecting geochemical footprints in high-pressure environments and the difficulty of reaching a global consensus on deep-sea mining legislation. By the end of the episode, listeners will have a clearer understanding of why exploration is as much about data modeling and environmental preservation as it is about extraction, and where they can access the UK’s latest intelligence on these emerging resources.Follow Pierre on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/pierre-josso-88172b59UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre: https://ukcmic.org/Chapters:00:00 – The Geochemistry of Mineral Deposits01:28 – Prospectivity Modeling: Mapping the Planet05:40 – Identifying Geochemical Footprints12:15 – The “Nerd” Side of Geology18:30 – International Legislation and Conflict23:42 – The Future of Deep Sea Policy24:10 – Where to Access CMIC Data 24:53 – Closing RemarksTheme Music Tamarack by Jesse Matas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThvEpyhnmE8 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode, Pierre Josso (Deputy Director, Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre – British Geological Survey) breaks down the concept of criticality as a function of risk, priorities and politics.This conversation gets deep into how critical minerals are actually assessed, why supply disruptions happen, and why we have to remember the point is communication toward decision making.Pierre brings a rare perspective that combines geology, data-driven analysis, and policy advisory, offering a more complete view of how governments evaluate mineral dependence and risk.Follow Pierre on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/pierre-josso-88172b59UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre: https://ukcmic.org/Chapters:* 00:00 – Introduction* 03:19 – Defining Criticality* 05:34 – Scale and Subjectivity in Criticality Assessments* 09:40 – Methodology: Quantifying Economic Importance* 12:42 – Market Sentiment and Price Volatility* 16:52 – The Challenges of Data Resolution* 20:03 – Analyzing Supply Risk and Bottlenecks* 23:41 – Recyclability and By-products* 27:44 – Geopolitical Market Manipulation* 32:16 – The “Black Box” of Global Supply Chains* 34:47 – Setting the Threshold for Action* 39:18 – The Limits of Predicting the Future* 44:16 – Technological Feedback Loops* 48:26 – Closing Remarks: Criticality is Not a Geological Problem This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode, I spoke with Paul Hirsch, Professor of Environmental Studies at the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry, where he directs graduate programs in environmental leadership and decision making. Hirsch’s research focuses on how societies navigate difficult environmental decisions involving competing values, uncertainty, and governance challenges.The conversation explores Hirsch’s concept of “complex trade-offs”—the idea that environmental decisions rarely produce clear winners and losers, and that framing them as simple “win-win” outcomes can be misleading. They discuss how values, governance processes, and interdisciplinary dialogue shape decision-making in complex environmental debates, and what this perspective might mean for discussions around Deep-Sea Mining.Timestamps00:00:00 — Introduction00:01:38 — No Win-Win Decisions00:05:04 — Complexity & Ambiguity00:07:36 — Ordinary Language Thinking00:12:16 — Integrative vs Integrated00:14:58 — Fruit Salad Thinking00:18:43 — What Are Values?00:20:27 — Principles vs Pathways00:27:19 — Learning Together00:32:42 — Process Over Analysis00:33:52 — Workable Good00:36:34 — The Decision Isn’t the End00:37:45 — Three Lenses00:54:02 — Interdisciplinary Work00:59:04 — Research & Programs01:00:00 — Trust & Leadership01:01:00 — Finding a Workable GoodPapers Mentioned* Hard Choices: Making Trade-offs Between Biodiversity Conservation and Human Well-Being (2011)* Acknowledging Conservation Trade-offs and Embracing Complexity (2011)* Navigating Complex Trade-Offs in Conservation and Development: An Integrative Framework (2013) This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Claudiu Ed Nedelciu, Ecological Economics Researcher at UiB joins the podcast to challenge the “inevitability narrative” of deep-sea mining. While the industry often frames extraction as a prerequisite for a green transition, Ed argues that this demand is artificially sustained by Growthism, a systemic requirement for 2-3% annual GDP growth that operates independently of actual human or environmental needs.He discusses his recent analysis of over 100 research papers, revealing how the majority of current scholarship operates within a “Growth Paradigm,” effectively legitimizing extraction before the first commercial license is even granted. Ed is a SEAS Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Natural resource management & system dynamics.Follow EdLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/claudiu-eduard-nedelciu-93669a42ReserachGate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Claudiu-NedelciuChapters00:00 Welcome and Introduction to Ed Nedelchu01:49 From Natural Resource Management to Ecological Economics03:02 The Inevitability Paradigm04:52 Defining Growthism06:42 Degrowth vs. Recession: A Planned Socio-Ecological Framework13:53 The Greenwashing of Sustainability: A Critique of Green Growth15:38 The Seven Hurdles: Why Decoupling is an Illusion16:59 The Rebound Effect (Jevons Paradox) and Problem Shifting25:30 Technology Driven by Profit vs. Social and Ecological Needs38:50 Manufacturing Inevitability: An Analysis of 100 Deep Sea Mining Research Papers49:40 Framing the Narrative: Mineral Demand as an “Unquestionable Reality”52:28 The Role of Academia: Legitimizing Exploitation via Research Funding63:14 Common Sense vs. Idealism: Reclaiming Durability and Repair Culture65:31 Closing: Shifting the Focus from Exploitation to Systemic ChangeResources Mentioned* How Growthism Made Deep-Sea Mining Possible (Preprint): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4912470* Kate Raworth on Donut Economics: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rhcrbcg8HBw * “Puriverse: A post-development Dictionary” book: https://radicalecologicaldemocracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Pluriverse-full-printable-version-July-2019.pdf* The Barcelona School of Ecological Economics and Political Ecology (this is a book with a good overview to the research group´s work): https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-22566-6 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

I speak with Craig Shesky, Chief Financial Officer of The Metals Company.Craig walks me through the financial and regulatory architecture behind TMC’s plans: what a pre-feasibility study actually means, what SEC reporting requires, and why the company is pursuing a U.S. regulatory pathway.This episode is about the mechanics — and the scrutiny — of trying to move a controversial resource project toward commercial reality.Note that this episode was recorded on Feb 2, 2026.We discuss:* What it means to be SEC-regulated — and why TMC believes public-market scrutiny strengthens its case* The US path via DSHMRA and NOAA, and whether a future U.S. administration could reverse course* What a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) is — and what it is not* Ramp-up plans: one vessel → four vessels* Processing strategy: Japan (Pacific Metals), possible Indonesia processing, potential U.S. refining* The manganese question, Nickel-equivalent grade, and multi-metal economicsReferenced materialsTMC Pre-Feasibility Study and Initial Assessment - https://investors.metals.co/news-releases/news-release-details/tmc-releases-two-economic-studies-combined-npv-236b-and-declaresBenchmark Mineral Intelligence Life Cycle Assessment (2023) - https://metals.co/bmi-lca-report/Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA)NOAA overview: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/deep-seabed-miningTimestamps00:00 Introduction to Deep Sea Mining and TMC04:36 Craig’s Journey to TMC10:21 Navigating Controversies16:15 Understanding SEC Regulations and Compliance19:25 Collaboration vs Competition in the Industry25:29 Regulatory Challenges and the American Regulatory Pathway48:48 Understanding the Pre-Feasibility Study55:33 TMC’s Operational Plan for Nodule Collection01:01:59 Future Processing Plans and Market Dynamics01:04:26 Trade-offs in Deep Sea Mining01:16:07 Scrutiny and Public Perception01:22:11 The Future of Deep Sea Mining This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode, Andrew Thaler — deep-sea ecologist, conservation technologist, and recent witness before the U.S. House Natural Resources Committee — lays out a position that resists the normal pro/anti DSM categorization. Drawing on nearly two decades of work across industry, NGOs, and policy forums, Andrew argues that impacts to the abyssal plain should be treated as effectively permanent and that this should frame the path forward around prioritizing resiliency of the ecosystems should mining occur. That assumption, he suggests, should shape the design of protected areas, monitoring systems, and regulatory triggers from the outset.The conversation covered several underexplored issues:* Why hydrothermal vents and polymetallic nodules present fundamentally different governance questions* The “discovery problem” — how new ecosystem discoveries mid-operation could challenge adaptive management* Why substitution arguments with terrestrial mining are often overstated* Structural critiques of the ISA’s unitary mining code* The geopolitical and market risks of unilateral U.S. action under DSHMRAThaler describes himself as both an idealist and a pragmatist. Mining may happen, he suggests — but if it does, it should proceed stepwise, cautiously, and under a framework that assumes permanence rather than recovery.Follow AndrewLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-thaler-293a9220/Bluesky: @drandrewthaler.bsky.social Blackbeard Biologic: https://blackbeardbiologic.com/Chapters00:00 Welcome and Introduction to Andrew Thaler02:10 From Marine Ecology to Policy Arenas07:55 Working Between Sectors12:40 The Governance Challenge of the Global Commons18:05 Risk, Uncertainty, and Abyssal Ecosystems24:38 Stability Over Centuries to Millennia30:50 Political Timelines vs. Geological Reality36:45 Industry, NGOs, and Diverging Incentives41:22 Irreversibility and Long-Term Consequences46:30 Scientific Evidence and Policy Interpretation52:15 Congressional Testimony and Public Framing58:40 What Responsible Governance Would Require63:10 Closing Reflections: Managing Risk Beyond Our LifetimesResources MentionedStatement to U.S. House Natural Resources Committee - https://www.southernfriedscience.com/the-urgency-does-not-exist-my-statement-on-deep-sea-mining-to-the-subcommittee-on-energy-and-mineral-resources/Publications & MediaDeep Sea Mining Observer (archived) https://dsmobserver.com/Southern Fried Science: https://www.southernfriedscience.comTechnical & Scientific ToolsOpenCTD (open-source oceanographic instrument project)NOAA ocean exploration: https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode of the Elements of Deep Sea Mining podcast, Nathan Eastwood, a partner at Watson Farley Williams, shares his extensive knowledge on international law and deep sea mining. He discusses the legal framework surrounding seabed mining, the challenges faced by the International Seabed Authority in adopting exploitation regulations, and the implications of U.S. regulations under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act. The conversation highlights the importance of bilateral investment treaties, environmental considerations, and the need for international cooperation in navigating the complexities of deep sea mining. Eastwood also explores potential best and worst case scenarios for the future of seabed mining and the role of multilateralism in addressing global challenges.Follow NathanLinkedIn: Nathan EastwoodFirm profile & contact: Watson Farley & Williams Chapters00:00 – Introduction: Nathan Eastwood02:00 – From Mining Disputes to the International Seabed Authority07:45 – Are There Secret Seabed Legal Battles?12:30 – Why International Law Matters for Companies18:40 – What the U.S. Is Actually Doing23:50 – Is DSHMRA a “Wild West” System?29:30 – Consolidated Applications Explained35:15 – The Existential Question for the ISA40:10 – Is It Legal? Treaty Law, Custom, and Jus Cogens48:20 – The Persistent Objector Doctrine52:40 – Where Are the Legal Teeth?58:30 – Could the ISA Challenge the U.S.?1:05:10 – Articles 137 & 139: Supplier Liability Debate1:12:30 – ISA Investigations and Due Process1:18:40 – Could Contracts Be Terminated?1:23:20 – Best-Case and Worst-Case Futures1:29:10 – Cooperation, China, and Regulatory Breakdown1:34:50 – The Culture of the Deep-Sea Mining Debate1:39:10 – Where to Learn More & ClosingFurther ReadingWatson Farley Williams articles on Seabed Mining:Mining the Deep Sea: How the US is Unlocking the Ocean’s Critical Minerals https://www.wfw.com/articles/mining-the-deep-sea-how-the-us-is-unlocking-the-oceans-critical-minerals/US regulatory frameworkUS statement in relation to their obligations under part 11 of the convention This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Check out full notes and linkes to articles referenced at Elyse’s Substack: If you don’t know all of the names and terms well, this glossary may be helpful. Plus, follow along with the show notes and links below. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Geophysicist Dr. Anna Lim has spent the past several years turning the invisible into the intelligible—designing and leading deep-ocean exploration campaigns that map and model what lies four kilometres beneath the sea surface.Formerly Manager & Discipline Lead for Marine Minerals and Deep-Ocean Space Exploration at Argeo, Anna joins Eric to unpack what “exploration” really means: how you plan a cruise, what counts as good data, and why trade-offs between coverage, resolution, and time define everything that follows.The conversation moves from the technical to the philosophical—bias in discovery, uncertainty, and the quiet role of trust in every data pipeline. It’s a rare inside look at how the knowledge base is actually built.Follow Anna on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/limannageo/?originalSubdomain=no🧭 Topics Covered* How exploration campaigns are planned and executed* The difference between good data and misleading data* Trade-offs: coverage vs. resolution, cost vs. information value* Survivorship bias in scientific discovery (“we only find what we look for”)* Data interpretation and the human element in modelling* Why “trust” and transparency matter even at the technical levelChapters00:00 Intro03:23 Anna Lim’s Journey to Geophysics05:08 The Role of Multidisciplinarity in Research07:33 Research Focus on Hydrothermal Systems09:46 Exploration Campaigns: Planning and Execution12:31 Data Collection Techniques in Deep Sea Exploration15:30 Challenges in Identifying Mineral Deposits18:17 The Importance of Context in Geophysical Research20:41 Trade-offs in Data Collection23:22 The Data Pipeline: From Collection to Analysis26:06 Identifying Zones of Interest in Deep Sea Exploration36:35 Understanding Sampling Bias in Geological Surveys40:00 The Importance of Data Processing and Calibration44:44 Interpreting Data: The Role of Assumptions48:33 Navigating Time and Budget Constraints in Exploration55:14 Trade-offs in Decision Making for Deep Sea Exploration01:01:54 Post-Exploration: Reporting and Next Steps01:08:45 Technological Advancements in Deep Sea ExplorationTheme music: Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

After the formal deep-sea mining debate, Oliver, Victor, and I stayed on the line for a more casual conversation about how to disagree constructively. They continue to clash on the economics, the technology, and the strategic case for deep-sea mining—but the tone stays respectful and focused on substance.This episode gives you a peek behind the scenes at how serious disagreements don’t have to be personal—and how people on all sides are ultimately pushing toward the best outcome as they see it.What We Discuss* How to handle a polarized topic without turning it into a fight* Why Oliver thinks the economics of nodules are misunderstood* Why Victor sees DSM’s economic case as weak* The “unknown unknowns” of deep-ocean tech* Battery chemistries, demand signals, and shifting narratives* What each side thinks the other side consistently gets wrong* Why constructive disagreement matters for the DSM conversationKey Quotes* Victor: “Everything is calibration. Absolutism closes the mind.”* Oliver: “Technology can change the environmental equation.”Eric: “Disagreement over substance doesn’t need to become disagreement about character.”Chapters00:00 Introduction and Context of Deep Sea Mining Debate03:21 Public Engagement and Democratic Processes06:20 Technological Innovations in Deep Sea Mining09:22 Environmental Concerns vs. Economic Viability12:34 Misunderstandings in Public Discourse15:14 The Role of Economics in Deep Sea Mining18:22 Future of Battery Technology and Metal Demand21:17 Constructive Dialogue and Future Collaborations This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

This debate centers around the necessity and implications of deep sea mining, featuring Oliver Gunasekra advocating for its potential benefits and Victor Vescovo expressing skepticism regarding its environmental impact and economic viability. The discussion covers various aspects including environmental responsibility, the essential nature of deep sea minerals, economic viability, technological feasibility, and regulatory frameworks. Audience questions further explore concerns about environmental impacts, noise pollution, and the socio-economic implications for local communities.As global demand for critical metals surges, deep sea mining has become one of the most promising — and polarizing — topics in the clean energy transition.Join Oliver Gunasekara, CEO & Co-Founder of Impossible Metals, and Victor Vescovo, Founder and CEO of Caladan Capital LLC, for a live debate on whether responsible seabed resource collection is essential to meeting the world’s growing need for metals. The discussion will be moderated by Eric Young, Host of the Elements of Deep Sea Mining Podcast.Expect a lively exchange on the future of critical minerals: Which metals truly matter for electrification? Can advances in battery technology reduce the need for new sources — or is deep sea mining indispensable? Are the financial projections driving this emerging industry realistic, and how do they compare to those of traditional terrestrial mining?The debate will also explore the broader geopolitical and economic context — including China’s dominance in global metal processing — and whether sustainable deep sea mining can strengthen supply chain security while minimizing environmental impact.Eric Young is a researcher focused on the ethical and practical trade-offs in developing critical mineral supply chains. He hosts The Elements of Deep Sea Mining, a podcast created to bridge the gap between polarized opinions and the complex facts of seabed mineral development, aiming to increase the flow of information and encourage constructive discussion.Oliver Gunasekara is a serial entrepreneur with more than thirty years of experience building and scaling technology companies. At ARM, he led mobile business development during a decade of explosive growth—from 0% to over 95% market share—and later drove key acquisitions as VP of Corporate Business Development, including Falanx, whose Mali GPU became the world’s top-shipping graphics processor.He went on to found NGCodec, a pioneer in cloud video acceleration, where he served as CEO, raised over $15 million, and secured major customers such as Amazon/Twitch before its acquisition by AMD in 2019. In 2020, Oliver founded Impossible Metals, serving as its CEO.Oliver holds a B.S. (Honors) in Electrical and Electronic Engineering from the University of Greenwich, a Mini-MBA from Stanford’s AeA Executive Institute, and is the inventor of multiple patents.Victor L. Vescovo is a private investor with over thirty years of experience in complex business and operational environments. He co-founded Insight Equity in 2002, raising more than $1.5 billion across four funds focused on industrial and asset-intensive sectors. As Chief Operating Officer, he specialized in defense, aerospace, and electronics, leading operational turnarounds. In 2023, he left Insight to pursue independent investments in industrial innovation, life sciences, and venture capital.He holds degrees from Stanford University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Harvard Business School, where he graduated as a Baker Scholar. A former U.S. Navy Reserve Commander, he served twenty years as an intelligence and targeting officer.An accomplished explorer, Victor completed the Explorer’s Grand Slam, climbing the highest peak on each continent and skiing to both poles. He has led record-setting dives to the Challenger Deep in the Mariana Trench, explored seventeen deep-ocean trenches, and conducted missions to the Titanic and historic WWII wrecks, including the USS Johnston and USS Samuel B. Roberts. A licensed pilot and certified submersible test pilot, he also flew into space aboard Blue Origin’s New Shepard, becoming the first person to climb Everest, dive to the ocean’s deepest point, and travel to space. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode, I speak with Dr. Espen Stabell, philosopher at the Western Norway University of Applied Sciences (HVL) and NTNU — and my PhD supervisor — about the ethical dimensions of deep-sea mining.We trace the foundations of environmental philosophy and how environmental ethics emerged as a response to growing ecological awareness in the 1970s. We discuss what moral philosophy can actually contribute to contemporary debates about resource use, and how frameworks like ideal and non-ideal theory shape what counts as a “reasonable” decision in the real world.The conversation moves from abstract questions of value — what does it mean to say nature has intrinsic worth? — to the practical difficulties of making decisions amid uncertainty, plural values, and competing interests.Takeaways* Deep-sea mining brings to the surface ethical questions that go far beyond technology or economics.* Ideal theories describe what a perfectly rational or just world would do; non-ideal theories help us act within the constraints we actually face.* Clarifying moral concepts like welfare and intrinsic value is essential before we can make coherent policy recommendations.* Ethical pluralism matters: reasonable people will disagree, and durable decisions depend on institutions that can hold that disagreement productively.Find EspenEspen Stabell HVL profile – https://www.hvl.no/en/employee/?user=Espen.Dyrnes.StabellResearch Gate Profile - https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Espen-Stabell/research⏱️ Timestamps00:00 — Introduction and why ethics keeps surfacing in deep-sea-mining debates04:50 — How environmental ethics began: Richard Routley’s “last man on Earth”15:00 — What philosophers actually add: clarifying contested concepts20:45 — The problem with using “intrinsic value” and “welfare” as plug-and-play terms31:30 — Hard choices and incommensurable values44:00 — Ideal vs. non-ideal theory: aiming for truth vs. acting in the real world1:05:00 — Why Espen grew more cautious about simple ethical recommendations1:18:00 — Pluralism, democratic deliberation, and rational institutions1:26:00 — Building decision frameworks that work under uncertaintyTheme mustic Tamarack by Jesse MatasLinks:Espen’s thesis - Deep Sea Uncertainty: Studies in Environmental Ethics and Decision-Making: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336561671_Deep_Sea_Uncertainty_Studies_in_Environmental_Ethics_and_Decision-MakingRichard Routley - Is there a need for a new environmental ethic?:https://iseethics.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/routley-richard-is-there-a-need-for-a-new-an-environmental-ethic-original.pdfArguments from Need in Natural Resource Debates: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337285117_Arguments_from_Need_in_Natural_Resource_DebatesWhy Environmental Philosophers Should Be “Buck-Passers” about Value: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355174932_Why_environmental_philosophers_should_be_'buck-passers'_about_value This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Dr. Rahul Sharma — is former Chief Scientist at India’s CSIR–National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, India. With more than 40 years of experience exploring and assessing marine minerals, Dr. Sharma is among the world’s foremost experts in deep-sea mining research. He holds a Master’s degree in Geology and a Doctorate in Marine Science, and his work has helped define India’s marine mineral program since its inception in the early 1980s.He has published 38 scientific papers, 41 technical reports, 27 articles, and presented over 60 conference papers. He has also edited five major Springer volumes on deep-sea mining, bringing together experts from across disciplines:* Deep-Sea Mining (2017) Resource Potential, Technical and Environmental Considerations* Environmental Issues of Deep-Sea Mining (2019) Impacts, Consequences and Policy Perspectives* Perspectives on Deep-Sea Mining (2022) Sustainability, Technology, Environmental Policy and Management* Deep-Sea Mining and the Water Column (2024) Advances, Monitoring and Related Issues* Deep-Sea Mining: Management, Policy and Regulation (2025) Data Management, Environmental Monitoring, Techno-Economic Assessment, Law of the Sea and Regulatory RegimesFollow Dr. Sharma on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rahul-sharma-22405639Chapters00:00 Intro & Rahul’s background06:30 Finding India’s area: from papers to pixels to permits09:50 Geology & grades: Indian Ocean vs CCZ19:30 Japan, Saudi, India—different capabilities, different goals22:55 India’s need, portfolio, and who’s building what40:00 Hype vs. history: how attention ramped51:10 Tech deep dive: platform/collector/riser and AUV shuttles59:10 Impact experiments & mitigation by design1:14:20 Need, scale, and making hard choices1:20:10 Rahul’s latest books & where to followTheme Music Tamarack by Jesse Matas https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1s1eD4F31A&list=RDw1s1eD4F31A&start_radio=1 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Stig-Morten Knutsen is Chief Geologist at the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, Vice Chair of the UN Expert Group on Resource Management, and a member of the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. In these roles, he grapples with some of the biggest—and most uncomfortable—questions in resource management: how to balance risk, uncertainty, and trust across industries ranging from oil and gas to carbon capture and seabed minerals.In this conversation, we discuss:* The details and development of Norway’s offshore regime* The challenge of balancing three competing dimensions: resources, environment, and geopolitics.* Why uncertainty—and our comfort with it—may be the central issue in the deep-sea mining debate.* The importance of trust, open data, and the “Norwegian model” for resource management and avoiding the “resource curse”.If you want to understand how Norway is trying to balance its offshore legacy with a new frontier—and what it takes to move the global conversation forward without collapsing into polarization—this episode is for you.Follow Stig-Morten on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stigmortenknutsen/?originalSubdomain=noChapters00:00 Understanding Resource Management and Deep Sea Mining03:03 Stig-Morten Knutsen: Background and Roles05:50 The Role of the Norwegian Offshore Directorate08:33 The Current State of Deep Sea Mining in Norway11:04 Exploration and Concession Processes13:42 The Challenges of Licensing and Regulation16:29 Public Perception and Trust in Resource Management19:16 The Intersection of Psychology and Resource Management22:05 Norway's Success in Resource Management24:49 The Future of Deep Sea Mining and Trust Issues34:07 Evaluating Deep-Sea Mining Licenses37:53 Understanding Stances on Deep-Sea Mining38:43 Dimensions of Deep-Sea Mining: Environment, Resources, and Geopolitics41:28 The Role of Uncertainty in Decision-Making44:25 The Importance of Timing in Resource Management47:14 Navigating Trust and Discomfort in Deep-Sea Mining49:48 The Resource Curse and Its Implications53:21 Exploring the Path Forward for Deep-Sea Mining57:00 The Need for Open Discussion and Data SharingResources/LinksThe NOD (Norwegian Offshore Directorate) homepage on Seabed minerals: https://www.sodir.no/en/facts/seabed-minerals/The Ministry of Energy on Seabed minerals: https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/energy/sea-bed-minerals/id2664074/The ISA (International Seabed Authority - about): https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/Centre for Deep Sea Research (UiB): https://www4.uib.no/en/research/research-centres/centre-for-deep-sea-research This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In the second half of this conversation, Jesse digs deeper into the specifics of the potential environmental impacts from deep sea mining, as well as getting into regulatory frameworks and the importance of trust to the future of deep sea mining.Dr. Jesse van der Grient is a quantitative ecologist whose work focuses on how ecosystems connect — across habitats, species, and stressors. She brings a neutral, science-based perspective through her work with the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI), a network of experts that does not advocate for or against deep-sea mining, but provides the science needed for informed decision-making.Chapters00:00 Risks of Deep Sea Mining: Sedimentation and Species Vulnerability07:32 Understanding Species-Specific Responses to Environmental Changes10:03 Categories of Impacts in Deep Sea Mining14:43 The Role of Light Pollution and Other Environmental Concerns16:04 Carbon Sequestration and Its Implications19:17 Technological Solutions and Regulatory Frameworks21:42 The Importance of Trust in Regulatory Discussions27:20 Navigating the Complexities of International Regulations33:27 Balancing Benefits and Drawbacks in Decision MakingTheme Music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Dr. Jesse van der Grient is a quantitative ecologist whose work focuses on how ecosystems connect — across habitats, species, and stressors. She brings a neutral, science-based perspective through her work with the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI), a network of experts that does not advocate for or against deep-sea mining, but provides the science needed for informed decision-making.Jesse puts detials to the biology of the deep ocean and unpacks the interactions of deep-sea ecosystems and what they mean for the future of seabed mining.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Deep Sea Mining and Ecosystems 01:47 Understanding Marine Biodiversity and Management 04:15 Research Journey: From Marine Biology to Deep Sea Mining 06:57 Complex Interactions: Stressors in Marine Environments 09:28 Ecosystem Modeling and Its Challenges 12:42 Ecosystem Services and Fisheries Overlap 15:26 Impacts of Sediment Plumes on Marine Life 18:20 The Role of Indicator Species in Ecosystem Health 21:29 Data Gaps in Deep Sea Research 24:01 Cumulative Impacts and Future Directions 29:01 Ecosystem Insights: Bridging Shallow and Deep Sea Research 33:03 Understanding Deep Sea Ecosystems and Mining Vulnerabilities 37:19 Connectivity in Deep Sea Populations: Implications for Conservation 43:31 Comparing Deep Sea and Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Complex Debate 47:37 Uncertainty in Deep Sea Research: The Need for Comprehensive Sampling 53:30 Risks of Deep Sea Mining: Sedimentation and Species Vulnerability Theme Music Tamarack by Jesse Matas Key takeaways* “We need to understand what is being managed… the connections in the deep ocean people don’t always know about or understand very well.”* “Two stressors can cancel each other out, or they can amplify each other. More often than not, we see synergistic impacts.”* “Counting parts doesn’t tell you if the car works. In ecosystems, knowing species numbers isn’t enough — we need to know how it functions.”Links and resources* Jesse’s Research Gate profile: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jesse-Van-Der-Grient* Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI): dosi-project.org* DOSI Minerals Working Group: https://www.dosi-project.org/minerals/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Coalter Lathrop is Principal and Founder at Sovereign Geographic as well as a lecturer on international law of the sea. He joins me on the podcast to express his concerns over the United States’ potential sanctioning of mineral recovery in the international seabed outside of UNCLOS framework.Follow Coalter:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/coalter-g-lathrop-7372bb6/Chapters00:00 Concerns Over U.S. Maritime Law and Deep Seabed Mining03:48 Expertise and Background in Maritime Law07:18 Maritime Border Disputes and Their Importance11:58 The Law of the Sea and Deep Seabed Mining17:32 The Unlawfulness of U.S. Unilateral Mining Permits22:14 Differences in Mining Licenses: TMC vs. Lockheed Martin27:32 The Role of the International Seabed Authority37:58 The Impact of U.S. Executive Orders on Maritime Law43:32 Concerns About the Rule of Law in Ocean Governance48:46 Historical Context of UNCLOS and Its Significance54:20 The Evolution of Maritime Jurisdiction Zones59:04 The Scarcity Narrative Behind UNCLOS01:04:06 The Risks of Unilateral Actions in Maritime Law01:09:38 The Importance of International Cooperation01:14:38 Trade-offs in Environmental and Economic Concerns01:20:26 Legal vs. Ethical Issues in Maritime Law01:26:08 Final Thoughts and Resources for Further LearningTheme Music Tamarack by Jesse MatasFurther readingCoalter Lathrop: Op-ed: The international legal risks of TMC’s new America Alone approach (Iceberg research) https://iceberg-research.com/2025/06/25/op-ed-the-international-legal-risks-of-tmcs-new-america-alone-approach/Coalter Lathrop: The Latest Trump Threat to International Law: Unilaterally Mining the Area (EJIL Talk!) https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-latest-trump-threat-to-international-law-unilaterally-mining-the-area/Coalter Lathrop: Payne Institute Webinar | The United States Reenters Deep Seabed Mining for Critical Minerals https://www.kaltura.com/index.php/extwidget/preview/partner_id/5642122/uiconf_id/53713682/entry_id/1_m4ibvfoy/embed/iframeCoalter Lathrop: The Modern Political Map of Our Ocean Planet (Brown Journal of World Affairs) https://bjwa.brown.edu/25-2/lathrop-the-modern-political-map-of-our-ocean-planet/Joanna Dingwall: International Law and Corporate Actors in Deep Seabed Mining (Oxford Univ. Press) https://www.wildy.com/isbn/9780192898265/international-law-and-corporate-actors-in-deep-seabed-mining-hardback-oxford-university-pressToby Fisher and Samantha Robb - Untouchable metals: How the obligations of UNCLOS States Parties limit the commercial viability of unilateral deep sea mining (EJIL Talk!) https://www.ejiltalk.org/untouchable-metals-how-the-obligations-of-unclos-states-parties-limit-the-commercial-viability-of-unilateral-deep-sea-mining/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Andreas Svanlund—business strategist, public speaker, and corporate executive— had early involvement in shaping discussions around Norway’s emerging deep-sea mineral industry. He has worked at the intersection of geopolitics, supply chains, and resource strategy, helping to connect the dots between marine minerals and questions of resilience and security. From advising and building networks across politics, diplomacy, and industry, to contributing to the broader debate leading up to Norway’s 2024 parliamentary decision on exploration, Andreas brings an inside view of how this new sector is taking shape.Follow Andreas:Substack: www.andreassvanlund.substack.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andreas-svanlund-74108747/Timestamps:00:00 Introduction to Deep Sea Mining and Its Context03:29 Andreas Svanlund's Background and Experience05:14 The Shift in Narrative: From Sustainability to Security07:27 Understanding Vulnerabilities in Mineral Supply Chains12:38 Drivers of Change in the International Economy14:58 The Deconstruction of Stability in Global Systems22:58 The Future of Deep Sea Mining in Norway25:20 The Importance of Resilience in Mineral Sourcing28:01 The Environmental and Economic Implications of Mining30:18 The Strategic Importance of Minerals for National Security39:48 Geopolitical Influences on Deep Sea Mining41:40 The Role of Politics in Mining Regulations44:33 Media Bias and Public Perception47:56 Resistance to Change in Deep Sea Mining51:37 The Importance of Trust in Decision-Making56:34 Navigating Trade-Offs in Mining Decisions01:01:39 Building Trust Through Common Goals01:06:36 Decentralization and Innovation in Industry01:13:49 Finding Common Purpose in SocietyTheme Music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Full write-up and links to articles discussed can be found at Elyse's Notes From the Deep Substack: notesfromthedeep.substack.com Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Deep Sea Mining News Roundup 01:21 Emerging Narratives in Deep Sea Mining 03:56 Shifts in Global Power Dynamics 07:14 The Role of the International Seabed Authority 11:10 The Metals Company and U.S. Regulations 14:35 TMC's Agreements and Strategic Moves 29:16 Deep Sea Mining Processing Challenges 32:45 US Deep Sea Mining Applications 36:29 Public Engagement and Regulatory Updates 38:56 International Cooperation in Deep Sea Mining 43:39 Emerging Technologies and Environmental Concerns 45:52 Japan's Government-Funded Mining Initiatives 49:27 Recent Scientific Discoveries in Deep Sea Ecosystems 54:16 The Intersection of Politics and Deep Sea Mining Theme Music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Aiste is a researcher at the University of Bergen whose work sits at the intersection of science, policy, and public discourse on deep sea mining. The conversation explores how scientific knowledge shapes (and sometimes complicates) policy decisions, why more research doesn’t always lead to clarity, and how the Norwegian decision-making process around deep sea mining has unfolded—often in ways that surprise the scientists involved. Aiste also reflects on what it means to be a “neutral” scientist, the challenges of multidisciplinary collaboration, and the importance of being transparent about your role in shaping public decisions.If you’re trying to understand how complex environmental decisions actually get made, this episode offers a nuanced, thought-provoking window into the process.Follow AisteLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aisteklimasauskaite/ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aiste-Klimasauskaite-2Chapters00:00 Introduction to Deep Sea Mining and Research03:30 The Role of Scientists in Public Discourse14:57 The Impact of Knowledge on Policy and Decision-Making21:36 Impact Assessments and Scientific Knowledge40:40 Quality vs. Neutrality in Scientific Research46:12 Trust in Science and Professional Networks51:59 Siloing in Science and Interdisciplinary Collaboration55:07 Decision-Making in Complex Value Situations01:03:39 The Precautionary Principle in Environmental Decision-Making01:07:18 Conservatism in Environmental Preservation01:16:42 The Role of Scientific Community in Policy01:21:00 Challenges in Global Governance of Ocean Resources01:28:12 The Importance of Purpose in Environmental DiscussionsTheme music: Tamarack by Jesse MatasMentioned Resources & Further Reading:* Think Again: How to Reason and Argue by Walter Sinnott-Armstrong* Sandra Harding's work on scientific neutrality This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Pradeep Arjan Singh — International ocean governance expert, Senior Project Manager at the Oceano Azul Foundation, and advisor to the IUCN. Pradeep works at the intersection of environmental law, global equity, and multilateral ocean negotiations.* LinkedIn: Pradeep Arjan Singh - https://www.linkedin.com/in/pradeeparjansingh/* Oceano Azul Foundation -https://oceanoazulfoundation.org🧭 Episode OverviewIn this foundational episode, Pradeep Singh takes us inside the legal architecture of the deep sea. We cover:* How the ISA came to be and what it’s actually supposed to do* Why the two-year rule was created and what it’s triggering has accomplished* The U.S. vs the ISA process* The difficultires of benefit-sharing and compensation mechanisms* What to expect at this year’s council meetings* What kind of research and financial modeling is still missingWhether you’re policy-curious or professionally involved in seabed governance, this is a must-listen.⏱️ Chapter Highlights00:00 – From Malaysia to multilateral negotiations: Pradeep’s legal background04:00 – The role of Oceano Azul, UNFCCC, CBD, and BBNJ11:00 – UNCLOS, the ISA, and why deep-sea mining triggered global treaty-making27:00 – What’s missing from the regulations: enforcement, liability, and monitoring33:00 – Benefit-sharing and the $95k problem45:00 – The two-year rule: origin, misuse, and consequences55:00 – U.S. unilateral mining: legal and environmental risks1:02:00 – Debunking geopolitics and the myth of metal scarcity1:10:00 – What we still don’t know: scaling, cumulative impacts, and economic modelingTheme music: Tamarack by Jesse Matas🔗 References & Resources* John Mero (1965) on seabed mineral wealth -https://www.sciencedirect.com/bookseries/elsevier-oceanography-series/vol/1* Pradeep’s publication on the history and legal basis for moratorium: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00908320.2024.2439877* Nagoya Protocol (CBD) – model for benefit-sharing https://www.cbd.int/abs/default.shtml* Earth Negotiations Bulletin – daily negotiation coverage https://enb.iisd.org/international-seabed-authority-isa-council-30-2* Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI) – minerals https://www.dosi-project.org/minerals/* ISA Web TV – live council and assembly sessions https://www.isa.org.jm/the-authority-web-tv/* IUCN Briefings – DSM: https://iucn.org/resources/issues-brief/deep-sea-miningProgress Amidst Challenges: IUCN Reflections on the ISA Council's 30th Session (Part 1) : https://iucn.org/story/202504/progress-amidst-challenges-iucn-reflections-isa-councils-30th-session-part-1#:~:text=IUCN%20remains%20committed%20to%20the,a%20transparent%20and%20inclusive%20manner. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Mats Ingulstad — historian at NTNU and lead of the TripleDeep project. His research explores the political economy of minerals and the role of the ocean in the industrial and geopolitical imagination of the 20th century.Get in touch with Mats here: https://www.ntnu.edu/employees/mats.ingulstad🧭 Episode OverviewIn this second part of our conversation, we trace the forgotten history of deep sea mining—from the 19th-century Challenger expedition to Cold War anxieties and 21st-century geopolitics. Mats unpacks how policymakers came to see the ocean as both a limitless source of minerals and a pressure valve for post-war scarcity fears. We explore how ideas of abundance, global equity, and national security shaped early efforts to regulate the seafloor—and why those debates still echo today.📌 Episode Highlights00:00 — The Challenger expedition and the first discovery of manganese nodules02:35 — Fritz Haber and the dream of gold from seawater03:50 — WWII, Korean War, and fears of mineral depletion05:05 — The 1960s growth model and minerals as a peace dividend06:40 — “Common heritage of mankind”: abundance, not scarcity08:15 — Scientific misconceptions about deep sea ecosystems09:55 — Deep sea mining as a central issue in UNCLOS negotiations11:00 — 1980s market optimism and the “dematerialization” thesis12:15 — China, rare earths, and the return of mineral geopolitics13:30 — The EU’s “blue growth” vision for ocean mining14:45 — The uneven playing field: cheap nodules vs. land-based producers17:00 — Calls for production caps to protect terrestrial economies19:45 — Deep sea mining as “the poor man’s space mining”21:10 — The Jevons Paradox: will DSM reduce or increase extraction?22:35 — The shift from climate framing to national security framing25:10 — Making decisions across incomparable value categories26:10 — Why we need historians, philosophers, and social scientists in this space28:40 — Where we’re at today: too early to decide, but better informed29:50 — Reading suggestions and the conceptual challenge of writing a history of a non-existent industryTheme music: Tamarack by Jesse Matas📚 Resources Mentioned* Helen Rozwadowski – books on the history and imagination of the oceanhttp://fathomingtheocean.com/books/* Tirza Meyer – https://tirzameyer.com/books/* Oles Sparrenberg – German-language book on deep sea mining in Germanypaper in english: A historical perspective on deep-sea mining for manganese nodules, 1965–2019 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214790X18303137* TripleDeep project (NTNU) – interdisciplinary research on DSM https://www.ntnu.edu/sustainability/tripledeep This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

I sit down with Mats Ingulstad, professor at NTNU, whose research bridges the history of strategic materials, global supply chains, and the political economy of critical minerals. Mats takes us on a journey from his early studies in U.S. foreign economic policy to his pioneering research on deep-sea mining.We explore the origins of strategic and critical minerals policies, tracing them back to the First and Second World Wars, where nations scrambled to secure resources for military and economic stability. Mats discusses the evolution of these policies, highlighting the tensions between military necessity and global trade that still resonate today.We also dive deep into the complexities of Norway’s political landscape around resource governance—how the country managed its oil wealth, set up a model for state-controlled resource rents, and the current debates surrounding deep-sea mining in Norwegian waters. Mats provides historical context to Norway's decisions, comparing them with other resource-dependent nations like Canada, and unpacks why Norway's model succeeded where others struggled.Finally, Mats sheds light on the broader historical narrative of deep-sea mining: from its early conceptualization during the Cold War as a solution to mineral scarcity to its resurgence as part of the green energy transition. He explains how this shift from "abundance" to "scarcity" frames the current political and environmental debate.If you're curious about how history shapes today’s political decisions around critical minerals and the deep-sea mining debate, this is an episode you don’t want to miss.Key Takeaways:* The historical roots of critical minerals policy and their military origins.* How Norway's political structure enabled unique resource governance models.* The complex legacy of deep-sea mining as a strategic and economic opportunity.* Why the political framing of resource abundance vs. scarcity matters today.Timestamps00:00 Introduction to Mats03:47 Historical Context of Strategic and Critical Minerals06:01 The Evolution of Resource Management in Warfare08:17 Personal Journey into Academia and Deep Sea Mining09:43 Norway's Approach to Natural Resource Governance12:30 Trust and Society's Attitude Towards Deep Sea Mining14:33 Political Discussion and Public Perception of Deep Sea Mining17:10 Comparative Analysis: Norway vs. Canada in Resource Management19:23 The Role of Historical Context in Resource Exploitation21:38 Current Challenges in Deep Sea Mining Regulation24:03 Future of Deep Sea Mining and Societal Trust37:04 Navigating Resource Rent Tax Challenges39:40 Norway's Strategic Decisions in Oil Management45:15 The Role of State in Economic Development48:58 Pension Fund and Statoil: A Model for Success53:40 Risks of Deep Sea Mining: A Geopolitical Perspective57:50 Understanding Uncertainty in Resource Projections01:04:34 Balancing Public and Private Interests in ExplorationTheme music: Tamarack by Jesse MatasLinks to Mats’ related research projectsFate of Nations. Natural resources and historical development, 1880-2015.The high seas and the deep oceans. 3ROceans: Representations, resources and regulatory governance.The Deep Dilemmas: Deep Sea Mining for the new Deep Transition? (TripleDeep)This is part 1 of a 2 part episode tune in next week for the remainder of the conversation. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode, I talk with Scott Vincent, an investor and advocate for deep-sea mining who founded the Critical Ocean Minerals Resource Center to challenge what he sees as misinformation about seabed mineral extraction. Scott brings his deep expertise from the investment world to discuss the economic, environmental, and social trade-offs associated with deep-sea mining. Scott emphasizes the importance of acknowledging trade-offs in deep-sea mining, arguing that it can be a cleaner alternative to terrestrial mining. The conversation also touches on investment perspectives, regulatory challenges, and the need for a balanced dialogue in the ongoing debate about deep sea mining.If you have feedback or recommendations, please reach out to me by email: [email protected]:00 Intro and Housekeeping03:19 Introducing Scott Vincent04:24 Scott’s Path to Deep Sea Mining07:25 Why Nodules Seemed Like a Win-Win09:32 About the Critical Ocean Minerals Resource Center (COMRC)12:01 The Impact of Misinformation and the Moratorium14:22 What the Executive Order Really Does16:06 Trade-Offs: How Should We Think About Them?24:38 Unknowns, Externalities, and Jevons Paradox34:47 Processing, Solid Waste, and Tailings Dams39:37 Land Use and Indirect Impacts of Mining44:34 The Investor's Perspective on DSM48:57 Modeling and Processing as Key Variables55:17 Comparing DSM to Junior Mining Investment58:37 WWF Critique and Misinformation Claims1:09:12 The Role of NGOs: Help or Hindrance?1:10:37 Technology Choices and NGO Influence1:14:32 Polarization and Paths to Dialogue1:17:59 US regulatory approach1:23:30 Final Thoughts and Where to Learn MoreTheme music: Tamarack by Jesse MatasLinks and ReferencesWhere to Find Scott* Twitter: @COMRC_org* LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/scott-vincent-241b1426/* Critical Ocean Minerals Resource Center (COMRC): www.COMRC.orgLCAs and comparative studies* Life Cycle Assessment of NORI-D Polymetallic Nodule Project and Comparison to Key Land-based Routes for Producing Nickel, Cobalt and Copper: https://metals.co/bmi-lca-report/* Where should metals for the green transition come from? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355944407_LCA-White-Paper_Where-Should-Metals-for-the-Green-Transition-Come-From_FINAL_low-res2* Paulikas, D. (2022). Deep-sea nodules versus land ores: A comparative systems analysis of mining and processing wastes for battery-metal supply chains. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2154-2177. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13225* Alvarenga (2022) Prospective life cycle assessment of metal commodities obtained from deep-sea polymetallic nodules: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652621040543* Comparing environmental impacts of deep-seabed and land-based mining: A defensible framework https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.17334 * Metal mining on land versus the ocean in the context of the current Biodiversity Crisis https://www.nature.com/articles/s44183-025-00110-zCOMRC Reports: * All reports: https://comrc.org/research/* "The Deadly Moratorium": https://comrc.org/a-deadly-moratorium/World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Investigations:* Original investigative report from BuzzFeed: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tomwarren/wwf-world-wide-fund-nature-parks-torture-death and Buzz Feed’s dedicated page https://www.buzzfeed.com/uk/tag/world-wildlife-fund* WWF-commissioned Independent Panel Review: Independent Review: https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/embedding-human-rights-in-conservation* Related news coverage: Professor John Knox Testifies before Members of U.S. House Natural Resources Committee on Human Rights and International Conservation: https://law.wfu.edu/2021/10/john-knox-house-natural-resources-committee-testimony/If you have feedback or recommendations, please reach out to me by email: [email protected] This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

I’m joined by Matthew Gianni, an independent consultant, advisor, and advocate for marine conservation based in the Netherlands. He is co-founder of the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition and currently serves as its Political and Policy Advisor. Matthew has been involved in international fisheries and marine conservation law and policy for nearly 30 years, working across the UN General Assembly, FAO, regional fisheries bodies, and the International Seabed Authority.In this wide-ranging conversation, we dig into the core dilemmas of seabed mining: governance, biodiversity loss, economic trade-offs, and the moral responsibility of global decision-makers. Matthew brings clarity, depth, and a global perspective on one of the most pressing environmental issues of our time.Follow Matthew* Twitter (X): x.com/GianniMatthew* LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/matthew-gianni-2934b514/* Deep Sea Conservation Coalition: deep-sea-conservation.org🔍 Chapters(00:00:00) — Intro(00:02:00) — Matt’s winding career path(00:04:40) — How the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition began(00:08:58) — Trawling vs. mining: a warning from history(00:14:56) — Lessons from 20 years of governance battles(00:20:54) — “Biodiversity loss is inevitable.”(00:33:12) — Who wins, who loses(00:39:10) — The trade-offs we rarely talk about(00:52:11) — The false dichotomy: land or sea(01:03:48) — How the ISA works—and why that matters(01:10:26) — “Serious negotiations by serious governments.”(01:16:32) — The ISA’s enforcement gap(01:23:50) — Why a precautionary pause isn’t radical(01:30:04) — Power dynamics at the ISA(01:38:40) — Ethics, governance, and legacyTheme music: Tamarack by Jesse Matas🔗 Additional Resources Mentioned* MIDAS Project: www.eu-midas.net* UNEP Finance Initiative 2022 Report: https://www.unep.org/annualreport/2022* The Metals Company (TMC) Life Cycle Assessment Report: https://metals.co/bmi-lca-report/* Nature Article by Verena Tunnicliffe et al.: https://www.nature.com/articles/s44183-025-00110-z* International Telecommunitation Untion report on E-wastehttps://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Environment/Pages/Publications/The-Global-E-waste-Monitor-2024.aspxCorrectionsIt isn’t easy to speak for nearly 2 hours without notes. Here are a few corrections Matt would like to make:* 49:26 & 53:36 cobalt and copper should have been cobalt and nickel“estimates of future demand for metals, primarily for batteries, for cobalt copper primarily for for building electric vehicles”“But there is an alternative, which is invest in circular economy initiatives or invest in terrestrial mining for metals that are far more abundant than cobalt and copper are and that can be sourced from any number of different parts of the world as opposed to a few key types of ecosystems or national jurisdictions.* 50:26 metazoan species should have been megafauna“Up to half of the species, the larger species, the metazoan species in that area that have been discovered to date are likely to be nodule-obligate species, meaning they depend on the nodules for some portion of the life history, or they are species that depend on the species that depend on the nodules.* 55:10 the International Telegraphic Union should have been International Telecommuncation Union“the International Telegraphic Union, I think based in Geneva, puts out periodic reports. I don't think they're quite annual reports, but on how much e-waste is thrown away every year. And they estimate over 50 million tons of electronic waste is thrown out every year, of which less than 20% is recycled.”* Also, Matt would like to emphasize the need for Free Prior and Informed Consent of Indigenous People as one of the reasons the DSCC are calling for a moratorium/precautionary pause. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode, I sit down with Lyle Trytten — the self-proclaimed “Nickel Nerd” and global expert in mineral processing and sustainability — to explore the lesser-discussed stages of the mineral supply chain. We cover the differences between mining, processing, and refining; what tailings really are and why they matter; and where the real ESG impacts happen in the value chain. If you think mining stops when the ore hits the deck, this episode is for you.🕐 Timestamps:* 02:58 — Lyle’s background: From Alberta to global projects* 11:31 — Why the conversation around mining vs. processing is too shallow* 13:57 — What’s the difference between mining, processing, and refining?* 18:54 — What are tailings? Why do they matter?* 24:54 — Tailings as potential carbon sinks… or pollution sources* 27:37 — Why no two tailings sites are the same* 31:22 — What happens during the refining stage* 36:09 — “Everything wants to be rust”: Oxides, reduction, and metals* 39:56 — Where mining impacts really happen along the value chain* 41:56 — Breaking down ESG into land, air, and water impacts* 46:45 — Why Russia’s nickel plant is still the world’s biggest SO₂ emitterTheme music Tamarack by Jesse Matas🔗 Links & Resources:* Follow Lyle Trytten on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lyle-trytten/* Read his white papers on sustainability in the resource industry: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lyle-trytten/recent-activity/documents/* 🎧 Listen to Part 2 of this interview → This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

This episode is a joint release with journalist Elyse Hauser who publishes a deep sea related newsletter at Notes from the Deep.Elyse prepared a number of the recent headlines that are worth noting in DSM news and was kind enough to come on and discuss them. Elyse’s commentary and links to the articles below.Also, check out Elyse’s Deep Sea Mining Glossary for a summary on many of the terms and actors in the DSM spaceTimestamps(00:00) - Introduction to Deep Sea Mining News Roundup(02:26) - US Involvement in Deep Sea Mining(07:58) - The Metals Company and DSHMRA(11:01) - Impossible Metals and BOEM Permits(14:57) - Trump's Executive Order on Deep Sea Mining(24:58) - US Congressional Hearing on Deep Sea Mining(30:56) - Life after Loke(33:55) - Kiribati's Shift in Partnerships(38:16) - Moratoriums(42:59) - Science Roundup(48:25) - Worst headline awardTheme music: Tamarack by Jesse MatasUnited States Turns Toward Deep Sea Minerals* Two companies, TMC and Impossible Metals, are applying for DSM through US regulations. Meanwhile, a new US Executive Order calls for fast-tracking US DSM permitting.* A news issue I’m seeing often: many articles state that both TMC and Impossible Metals are applying for NOAA permits, or that NOAA can permit US DSM in both national and international waters.* In fact, NOAA is in charge only of the US international permits.* BOEM is in charge of permits in US waters.* The Executive Order clearly directs the Secretary of the Interior (BOEM is part of the DOI) to expedite “reviewing and approving permits” in US waters.* This mistake appears in the New York Times, which states that the Executive Order directs NOAA to expedite mining permits “in both international and US territorial waters.” Same mistake in the AP: “Trump’s order Thursday directed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to fast-track permits for companies to mine the ocean floor in both US and international waters.”* This mistake was repeated in smaller outlets, too. It seems some journalists either didn’t read the complete Executive Order, or read it and didn’t understand it. I haven’t noticed any corrections issued yet.* Another common mistake: articles only stating the US wants metals for electric vehicles and the energy transition.* While that demand certainly exists, the Trump administration is focused less on energy transition stuff, more on “national security” (competing with China, etc) and military uses. Many DSM news pieces leave this entirely out.* Another issue: claims that DSM permitting is completely against the intended purpose of US agencies.* BOEM’s stated mission is all about resource development.* NOAA has leaned more toward basic science, but it is part of the Department of Commerce and does have a resource focus too.* Next, there was the US Congressional Subcommittee hearing on DSM, which had TMC and Impossible Metals present.* The man running the hearing, Congressman Paul Gosar, kept things feeling pretty wild, with many lengthy, convoluted tangents. (See one example at timestamp 1:42:25.)* In contrast, the DSM folks and witnesses were fairly calm and straightforward, even as they tried to make sense of Gosar’s hard-to-follow style.* Also, everyone (Impossible Metals, TMC, even Gosar) brought a nodule!* A forward-looking point: possible legal issues for US/TMC/Impossible Metals. GeoExpro suggested that global markets/governments could reject TMC’s metals as “illegally sourced,” if TMC bypasses the ISA.* William Yancey Brown in an Atlantic Council blog notes that DSHMRA (NOAA) and OCSLA (BOEM) both have standards against environmental harm, which the DSM proposals might currently be unable to meet.* Andrew Thaler at Southern Fried Science (great DSM news source) brought up the Jones Act (part of the US Merchant Marine Act), which stipulates “that ships moving goods between US ports be ‘built, owned, and operated by US citizens.’” It could be an issue for TMC, as DSHMRA will require them to bring minerals to US ports, but they’re not using US ships/crews.* Thaler also notes that with major cuts to federal staff, the US isn’t really in a position to expedite DSM, as the Executive Order calls for. (Quote: “the Federal Government lacks the human capacity to expedite anything.”)* Next steps for Impossible Metals, per BOEM’s announcement: the “multi-step evaluation process” will include a public input step.* Next steps for TMC: NOAA’s permitting process will also have a public comment phase. US followers may want to contribute to one or both. We’ll share those links as they become available.Norway DSM:* Loke went bankrupt but didn’t get much press. Questions arise as to what will happen to their exploration licenses in the CCZ.* Greenpeace made a bid for Loke’s CCZ licenses, in a stunt that also didn’t get much press.* Is Loke gone or will it arise again under a new banner? Perhaps not out of the game considering that “other bidders included Loke’s founders and the UK-based offshore technology company TechnipFMC, which has invested in Loke,” according to The Financial Times.China/Kiribati DSM:* Kiribati is considering a DSM partnership with China, following the end of its deal with TMC. This might be similar to the recent China-Cook Islands partnership, allowing the island nation to use Chinese tech/support as it explores DSM. Could all this lead to a China/US DSM face-off in the Pacific?* Minmetals, a Chinese DSM company, just got the green light from ISA for DSM tests in the Pacific. The plan is to trial collector vehicles, so it’ll be interesting to see what the designs are (I’m guessing a crawler similar to TMC’s, but not sure). Tests are likely happening later this year.Portugal and New Caledonia moratoriums:* No DSM in Portuguese waters until 2050. A really good place for a moratorium, as there are really unique deep sea ecosystems, and minerals, around the Azores.* New Caledonia, a French Pacific territory, instituted a 50-year moratorium (until 2075) on exploring/mining minerals in its EEZ.Study 44 years after test mining:* A study by the UK’s National Oceanography Centre and Natural History Museum and others, 44 years after a mining test, showed some biological recovery. The impacts/vehicle tracks were still clear, and the abundance/diversity of animals was still lower than before test, but some animals were recolonizing.* Interesting that many headlines focused on impacts and not recovery.* This study (and really, a lot things about DSM) feels kind of like a Rorschach test. Many people look at it and see what they want to see. What the study actually says is pretty neutral.Seafloor imaging study:* Study finds that 99.999 percent of the deep seabed hasn’t been visually imaged by humans.* The study authors, and some press, note that this leaves knowledge gaps that could be issues for DSM. However, DSM interest is also responsible for some of the imaging done to date.And the very worst headline:* From Sustainability Times: “‘Deep Sea Mining Madness’: The Next Unstoppable Gold Rush Boom to Devastate Our Ocean’s Hidden Treasures and Unleash Unimaginable Wealth” – the article really wasn’t bad, but this headline sounds completely unhinged. Is AI to blame?? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Michael Clarke, Environmental Manager at The Metals Company, brings over 30 years of conservation biology experience to impact assessment of potential mining in the CCZ. Mike explains the details of how TMC goes about conducting one of the largest-ever marine environmental baseline programs, the challenges of gathering and interpreting deep-sea data, and the critical trade-offs between land-based and ocean resource extraction.From sediment plumes to carbon concerns, Mike breaks down what the data shows—and what it doesn’t—when it comes to the potential environmental impact of deep-sea mining. If you’re trying to understand the nuances of deep-sea mining’s environmental footprint, and how these decisions balance against terrestrial mining pressures, this episode is a must-listen.Shortly after this was recorded The Metals Company made the first ever submission for a commercial recovery permit in international waters under U.S. law. Details can be found on their website: https://investors.metals.co/news-releases/news-release-details/world-first-tmc-usa-submits-application-commercial-recovery-deep.Topics Covered:* Michael’s global conservation background and path to DSM* TMC’s $250M environmental baseline study* Noise, light, sedimentation, and carbon impacts: findings and misconceptions* Technical challenges of offshore environmental science* The trade-offs between deep-sea and Indonesian rainforest nickel mining* How science feeds into decision-making for sustainability* Why polarized narratives around deep-sea mining often miss the real questionsFollow Mike on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-clarke-6575501b/Resources Mentioned:* International Seabed Authority Publications https://www.isa.org.jm/publications/* Polymetallic Nodule Research Alliance https://noduleresearch.com/* TMC’s Research web page https://metals.co/research/* SMARTEX study https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08921-3⏱️ Timestamps02:08 — Early career: conservation work, invasive species research, global fieldwork08:23 — Transition to industrial EIAs and mining projects09:41 — Joining The Metals Company and focus on deep-sea mining12:29 — Trade-offs and decision-making in environmental assessments17:07 — How deep-sea environmental studies are designed and conducted20:07 — Research logistics: campaigns, challenges, and COVID adaptations22:36 — Partnering with universities and ensuring independent data publication27:22 — Key technical challenges in deep-sea sampling and monitoring34:48 — Findings on noise impacts from mining operations39:32 — Managing zones of impact and minimizing environmental spread42:34 — Sediment and midwater plume behavior and impact modeling58:06 — Understanding cumulative impacts and the role of regulation1:04:15 — Other impacts: carbon release, lights, and habitat loss1:06:56 — Protecting biodiversity: mining strategy and protected areas1:10:40 — Funding environmental research and trust in scientific integrity1:14:45 — Long-term monitoring plans and Pacific Islander involvement1:17:50 — Reflections on environmental consulting and early design influence1:20:38 — Media misrepresentation and public misunderstanding of research1:24:09 — Trade-offs: deep-sea mining versus rainforest destruction1:29:03 — Closing thoughts, resources, and where to learn moreTheme music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this episode of The Elements of Deep Sea Mining, Professor Steinar Løve Ellefmo shares a foundational look at deep-sea minerals, how they form, and why we know so little—and yet so much—about what's under the ocean floor.Steinar was one of the first researchers in Norway to seriously model the country’s deep-sea mineral potential. He walks us through what mineral deposits exist beneath the seafloor, how they're different from land-based resources, and how challenging it is to collect reliable data about them. We also unpack Norway’s recent political decisions—what’s actually been opened, and why terminology like exploration and exploitation has caused so much confusion.The second half of the episode dives deep into trust, dialogue, and the challenges of making decisions across conflicting value systems. What counts as enough data? Who gets to decide? And what might it take to talk across the expert/activist divide?“You will communicate your values to me so that I can understand your values, you will understand mine, and we will achieve some common understanding… That takes time. Many dinners, not just one.”If you're trying to make sense of what’s at stake in the deep-sea mining debate—and how to move it forward—this episode offers a rich, grounded place to start.🔗 Resources & Links* Steinar Ellefmo at NTNU: https://www.ntnu.no/ansatte/steinar.ellefmo* TripleDeep Project: https://www.ntnu.edu/sustainability/tripledeep* Deep Sea Mining Gemini Center: https://www.sintef.no/om-sintef/gemini-samarbeidet/#EtablerteGeminisenter: * https://www.sintef.no/om-sintef/gemini-samarbeidet/#EtablerteGeminisenter* 2014 Report on Norwegian Deep Sea Mineral Potential: https://gemini.no/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Abstract_and_assessments_of__SMS_on_Norwegian_EEZ_16-12-2013.pdf🎧 Timestamps03:45 – Estimating what we haven’t found yet07:24 – The 2014 estimate: from “almost nothing” to “a lot”12:15 – The four types of deep-sea mineral deposits14:50 – How and where seafloor massive sulfides form19:38 – Nodules, crusts, and rare earth-rich muds24:00 – Why economic mineral deposits are rare—and where they form27:00 – Why deposits only form in the deep sea (>800m)29:00 – Deep-sea vs land-based deposits: mineralogy and grade34:00 – What it takes to “know” a deposit: drilling and core samples37:10 – Geophysics and geostatistics: estimating the unknown47:00 – Did Norway really "open" for deep sea mining?48:45 – Exploration vs. exploitation: semantic traps and trust52:15 – Why we need more data before deciding55:09 – Carrots, licenses, and what motivates private investment57:30 – Timelines: How long before deep-sea mining could happen?1:01:00 – Misunderstanding, dialogue, and earning each other’s trust1:07:00 – Trade-offs, value conflicts, and the challenge of weighing them1:10:00 – Interdisciplinarity in action: the Deep Sea Mining Pilot and TripleDeep1:13:00 – Steinar’s closing reflections: we need minerals, but we need to think holistically1:15:00 – Where to learn more and contact Steinar🎵 Theme music: Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this conversation, Dr. Helen Rosenbaum—Campaign Coordinator of the Deep Sea Mining Campaign—shares her perspective on why no amount of deep sea mining is acceptable. Drawing from over a decade of science-based advocacy and community development experience in the Pacific, she explains how the industry evolved, the story of the failed Solwara 1 project, and why advocacy must go beyond simply presenting scientific facts.Helen discusses the environmental risks of deep sea mining, the gaps in regulation, and the pressure campaign her organization has run to push back against the commercial and geopolitical momentum behind seabed extraction. 🔗 Resources & Links:* Helen on LinkedIn : https://www.linkedin.com/in/helen-rosenbaum-3b78a417/* Deep Sea Mining Campaign: https://www.dsm-campaign.org* Scientific Review Report: Predicting the Impacts of Mining Deep Sea Polymetallic Nodules in the Pacific Ocean* 🎥 Short Film: Blue Peril – Documentary on seabed mining in the Pacific⏱️ Timestamps01:16 – Helen’s background and path to advocacy04:26 – Encountering Solwara 1: the PNG connection07:25 – Founding the Deep Sea Mining Campaign08:19 – Strategy pillars: science, solidarity, finance11:12 – Why advocacy matters: beyond research papers13:58 – Truth, power, and narrative framing15:30 – Strategic research and filling gaps16:59 – The evolution of the deep sea mining conversation20:14 – What happened to the Solwara 1 project?25:09 – Geopolitics and the land grab in the CCZ32:17 – What is the right amount of deep sea mining?34:44 – Scientific review commissioned by the campaign38:18 – Ban vs moratorium: rationale and position44:53 – Corporate pressure on global governance45:34 – The U.S. position and ISA alternatives🎵 Theme music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

I sit down with Lyle Trytten—nicknamed the “Nickel Nerd”—a chemical engineer and metallurgical consultant specializing in critical minerals and sustainability. With decades of experience from mining operations to refining and supply chains, Lyle breaks down the complex realities behind the recent surge of tariffs and trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada—and their potential consequences for critical mineral supply chains.Lyle explains why tariffs meant to encourage domestic processing might backfire, raising costs and making U.S. manufacturing less competitive globally. He also details just how reliant the United States is on Canadian imports, especially for nickel and cobalt—critical minerals essential for the energy transition.Plus, we discuss Canada's response, how trade tensions are influencing market sentiment, and what policymakers and industry need to understand to navigate the intricate balance of economic nationalism, geopolitical tensions, and global supply chain realities.Follow Lyle: LinkedIn | Bluesky (search: "Nickel Nerd")Episode Segments & Timestamps00:00 – Intro & Context01:04 – Building mineral processing capacity isn’t simple01:53 – Deep-sea mining and supply chain geopolitics07:04 – Can tariffs bring processing back home?10:23 – Case study: Mountain Pass rare earth mine13:44 – Expertise shortfall in Western supply chains15:04 – Why even proven tech isn’t plug-and-play17:17 – U.S. mineral dependency on Canada21:29 – Canadian backlash to U.S. trade policy25:04 – Decision-making in the face of trade-offs30:24 – The limits of international regulation33:12 – What makes a good mining regulator?37:44 – Legacy sites and sustainability regulation40:05 – Lyle’s recommended resources & thinkers42:24 – Wrap-up & final reflectionsTheme music Tamarack by Jesse MatasAdditional notes / correctionsLargest potash producers are Canada, Belarus, Russia. Kazakhstan is the dominant producer of UraniumSustainable mining standardsICMM - International Council on Mining and Metals (https://www.icmm.com)TSM - Towards sustainable Mining (https://mining.ca/towards-sustainable-mining/) ‘* Note that Norway, Finland, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, Botswana, and the Philippines have all agreed to adopt both standards📚 Lyle’s list of resources:* Terry (Terence) McNulty’s influential papers on plant startups and processing failures (searchable as “McNulty Curves”): Link to Terry McNulty's work* Bent Flyvbjerg (megaproject analysis): LinkedIn* book with and Dan Gardner book: How Big Things Get Done* On the Rocks podcast (Emily King): Nickel 101 with Lyle Trytten* Michael Liebreich (global energy transition issues): Cleaning Up podcast | https://www.liebreich.com/* Michael Barnard (global energy transition issues): writings for Clean Technica | LinkedIn* Energy vs Climate podcast: energyvsclimate.com* Jesse Jenkins (US energy transition and policy): featured on Shift Key podcast: Spotify or Apple or other platformsTwo that didn’t get a shoutout but are also endorsed:* Markham Hislop Energi Media (sometimes controversial and blunt content on Canada’s energy transition): Website and YouTube, podcast on Spotify or Apple or others* Jigar Shah (US energy transition and policy): Open Circuit podcast on Spotify, Apple or other platforms This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

In this conversation, Oliver Gunasekara discusses the innovative system developed by Impossible Metals aimed at addressing the environmental challenges associated with deep sea nodule mining. Oliver emphasizes the importance of modern technology in reducing the ecological impact of mining operations while ensuring the extraction of critical minerals necessary for the energy transition. The discussion also covers the regulatory landscape, the controversies surrounding deep sea mining, and the need for transparency and trust in the industry.Check out their 3D Animation of the system (90 seconds video): 🔗 Resources & Links:* Impossible Metals: https://www.impossiblemetals.com* FAQ : https://impossiblemetals.com/frequently-asked-questions/faqs-environmental-and-social-responsibility-for-deep-sea-mining/* · Follow LinkedIn page for updates: https://www.linkedin.com/company/impossible-metals/* Oliver Gunasekara on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gunasekara/* · Blog: https://impossiblemetals.com/blog/why-will-deep-sea-mining-be-less-expensive-than-traditional-land-based-mining/* · Blog: How the Environmental Impact Assessment is a Keystone of Decision-Making in Deep-Sea Mining* · Impossible Metals new Podcast: Beyond Oil: The rise of critical minerals* · Register for Webinar: Deep Dive into the Updated Techno Economic Model on Friday, March 21, 8:00 am PDT (11 am EDT)Timestamps00:00 – Introduction: Rethinking Deep Sea Mining01:20 – Oliver’s Background and Path to Deep Sea Mining03:09 – Why Deep Sea Mining? A Climate-Driven Pivot05:43 – Environmental Impact Starts with Technology07:28 – Designing from First Principles10:38 – The Core Architecture of Impossible Metals14:16 – The Buoyancy Engine: A New Kind of Mobility18:16 – Smart Launch and Recovery Explained20:34 – Operating in Rough Seas: More Days, Better Economics23:14 – Designing for Reduced Environmental Harm31:05 – Business Model: Partner or Operator?33:22 – Development Timeline and Readiness Level36:40 – Speed, Scale, and Collection Economics41:27 – Why the Cost Advantage is So Large46:34 – Processing Nodules: Can Existing Infrastructure Adapt?47:14 – Public Perception and Pushback50:31 – Moratorium vs Ban: Clarifying the Debate53:49 – Trade-Offs and Trust in Environmental Decision-Making57:30 – The Role of Trust and Transparency1:01:46 – Why the Spotlight on Deep Sea Mining Now?1:07:11 – Recycling, Substitution, and Demand Realities1:11:31 – Ethical Access, Global Equity, and the Climate Crisis1:13:06 – Competitors and the Long Game1:14:32 – Final Thoughts and Where to Learn MoreTheme music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

I speak with Simon Jowitt about the nuances of the mining industry. We discuss the importance of mining in modern society, the dynamics of resources and reserves, and the environmental and social considerations that impact mining operations. The conversation also delves into the future of deep sea mining, the role of critical minerals in the economy, and the details and possibilities of the mining industry for meeting growing demand while ensuring sustainable practices.Simon Jowitt is Director, Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology | Nevada State Geologist | Arthur Brant Chair in Exploration Geology | Director, Ralph J. Roberts Center for Research in Economic Geology, University of Nevada Reno.Follow him at https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejow/Here is the link to Simon’s paper with Gavin Mudd and John Thompson: Future availability of non-renewable metal resources and the influence of environmental, social, and governance conflicts on metal production Timestamps00:00 Introduction to Economic Geology06:32 Simon Jowitt's Journey in Geology13:39 The Importance of Mining and Resource Management19:47 Understanding Resources and Reserves25:26 Environmental and Social Challenges in Mining32:53 Optimism in the Face of Challenges33:58 Historical Context of Resource Reporting36:00 The Impact of Mining Scandals37:47 Trends in Resource Availability40:45 Deep Sea Mining vs. Terrestrial Mining45:51 Concerns Over Deep Sea Mining53:34 The Future of Mining in the US57:25 Understanding Critical Minerals01:08:34 New ChapterKeywordsdeep sea mining, economic geology, resources, reserves, environmental impact, critical minerals, mining industry, energy transition, ESG, mining economicsTheme music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Listen to the full episode on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or your preferred playerDorothy Dankel joins Eric to discuss her recent paper with Min Hyung Kim on how society should navigate the epistemic authority of science and how we need to be ‘ready to be wrong’ and be more comfortable with the fact of uncertainty. This conversation delves into the complexities of deep sea mining, the intersection of journalism and scientific research, and the philosophical underpinnings of science. The discussion highlights the importance of collaboration in scientific endeavors, the challenges posed by uncertainty in research, and the implications of post-normal science in understanding environmental issues. The conversation also emphasizes the need for more deep sea research and the potential risks and opportunities associated with deep sea mining.Dorothy is Senior Research Scientist at SINTEF Ocean and adjunct assoc. professor at the Dept. of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen in Norway. Her expertise is in Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) and transdisciplinarity in Marine Science. She is Chair of the Nordic Marine Think Tank and has been a fellow at the University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, School of Marine Science and Technology (SMAST) and the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).Follow Dorothy on LinkedIn Time stamps00:00 Intro00:27 Dorothy's Journey from Journalism to Marine Research06:05 The Intersection of Journalism and Research10:15 Exploring the New Paper: Are We Ready to Be Wrong?16:04 The Mackerel Case: A Study in Post-Normal Science27:28 Stakeholder Engagement in Science32:54 Navigating Uncertainty and Complexity49:06 Intellectual Humility in Scientific Discourse56:10 Deep Sea Mining: Risks and OpportunitiesTheme music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Listen to the full episode on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or your preferred playerLars Kristian Trellevik, Chief Operations and Sustainability Officer at Adepth Minerals, speaks with Eric about the complexities and challenges of exploring and potentially mining the deep sea. They discuss Trellevik's long experience of deep sea operations, the philosophical underpinnings of Deep Ecology, and the importance of systems thinking in addressing the energy transition. Lars Kristian also explores his first hand experience in the polarized debate surrounding deep sea mining, the precautionary principle, and the need for responsible research and regulation. Trellevik emphasizes the importance of understanding the broader context of deep sea mining and the misconceptions that often arise in public discourse.Keep up with Lars Kristian on LinkedIn and read the publications discussed at his ResearchGate page and his Blog “Deep-Sea Minerals: On Hubris, Morality and Asymmetric Uncertainty”Time stamps* 02:08 The Philosophy of Deep Ecology and its Relevance* 05:36 Systems Thinking and Trade-offs in Energy Transition* 12:42 The Polarized Debate on Deep Sea Mining* 19:01 Uncertainty and the Precautionary Principle in Deep Sea Mining* 36:53 Exploring ADEPTH's Focus on Deep Sea Minerals* 41:54 Navigating the Licensing Process for Deep Sea Mining* 48:01 Understanding Public Perception and Trust in Government* 57:37 Addressing Misconceptions in Deep Sea Mining* 01:05:19 Critiquing the Dark Oxygen HypothesisTheme music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

Listen to the full episode on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or your preferred playerEric is joined by journalist Elyse Hauser, whose work on deep-sea mining brings a much-needed depth to a topic often superficially covered. Elyse shares her transition from marketing to journalism, motivated by her passion for environmental integrity and her deep connection to aquatic environments.We delve into how deep-sea mining is portrayed in the media, the misconceptions prevalent in public discourse, and the complexities overlooked in mainstream narratives. Elyse discusses the journalistic challenges and responsibilities in covering such a multifaceted subject, emphasizing the need for greater investigative depth and critical analysis.Elyse’s Substack Notes From the Deep is a treasure trove of information, entertainment, and nuance on all things deep sea.Time stamps* 00:00 Introduction to Deep Sea Mining and Journalism* 05:12 Complexities of Deep Sea Mining* 12:01 Gaps in Mainstream Media Reporting* 16:16 Narratives in Deep Sea Mining Coverage* 22:52 Comparing Research and Journalism* 27:27 Editorial Challenges in Journalism* 34:58 The Complexities of Deep Sea Mining Narratives* 39:16 Norway's Unique Position in Deep Sea Mining* 45:20 The U.S. Approach to Deep Sea Mining* 52:10 Media's Role in Deep Sea Mining DiscourseTheme music Tamarack by Jesse Matas This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com

This podcast has 3 aims1- to share knowledge about deep sea mining, and about the drivers of the deep sea mining conversation: critical minerals, ecosystem integrity, geopolitics, ethical values. 2- to give access to viewpoints from all sides of the deep sea mining conversation. So that those involved have a chance to be heard and understood and to hear and to understand one another.3- To explore the central issues of sustainability, externalities, and the energy transition through the test case of deep sea mining.Philosophers like to choose artificially extreme versions of real world problems as thought experiments to help explore a point. I was originally attracted to deep sea mining as a thought experiment for the material impacts of the energy transition and the difficult trade-offs that we are forced to face. Deep sea mining is a useful test case for many of these ideas, both because it is a quintessential dilemma of the current moment, and because the nuances and details which are often being left out of the conversations are crucial for understanding and for making responsible decisions.Going forward I will release interviews with key deep sea mining experts as well as relevant thinkers on related topics. Like, subscribe, share, enjoy. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tradingoff.substack.com