PODCAST · business
The Flip Side
by Barclays Investment Bank
There are two sides to every story, including in markets. On The Flip Side podcast, two Barclays Research analysts offer perspectives from different angles as they debate the economic and market themes that matter most to investors and business leaders.Each month this award-winning podcast will inform your view through contrasting positions, revealing the nuances that emerge when ideas are tested, challenged and pushed further.Through this debate, our analysts surface the dynamics that may be missed in headline‑driven narratives. The result? A clearer, more rounded understanding of what’s really moving markets that helps you make more informed decisions.For more insights from our experts: https://www.ib.barclaysImportant content disclosures: https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html
Episodes
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Do debt managers or markets set the price of long bonds?
Around the globe, developed economies' government bond yields are climbing. In response, debt managers are reshaping how they borrow, shortening issuance and buying back longer-dated debt in an effort to reduce the duration investors must absorb. But can government debt managers truly influence...
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Are post-crisis US bank regulations holding markets back?
Post-crisis bank regulations were designed to create a safer financial system. Nearly two decades later, US regulators are revisiting the implementation of some of those rules, with the potential to create more capacity for growing financial markets - and perhaps affect the future of financial...
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If the Fed goes quiet, do markets make more noise?
For over three decades, the US Federal Reserve has moved towards greater transparency, introducing new ways of communicating its outlook to markets. Weeks into his tenure, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reversing that trend. He scrapped forward guidance and opted out of the dot plot, arguing that…
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Welcome to The Flip Side podcast
There are two sides to every story, including in markets. On The Flip Side podcast, two Barclays Research analysts offer perspectives from different angles as they debate the economic and market themes that matter most to investors and business leaders. Each month this award-winning podcast will...
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Physical AI: Wealth creation or economic displacement?
Artificial intelligence is moving off the screen and into the real economy. For investors, that shifts the focus from software productivity to how labour, capital and markets themselves could be repriced. With machines, such as humanoid robots, increasingly taking on physical tasks, from driving...
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Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars?
Gasoline prices in the United States have risen to over $4 per gallon since the Iran war began in February. When combined with higher car prices, higher interest rates and rising auto loan delinquencies – not to mention other affordability concerns consumers face – might consumers change their…
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$1 trillion AI capex by 2028: Justified or inflated?
Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such…
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Should alternative asset managers be trading like software?
Private credit has been a powerful growth engine for alternative asset managers, with business development corporations (BDCs) playing a central role. As AI adoption accelerates and software business models come under pressure, investors are concerned with how exposed these managers are to…
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Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?
After more than a decade of US equity dominance, international markets made a rare comeback in 2025. Europe, Japan, Emerging Markets and the UK outperformed, the majority of global equity flows went outside the US, and investors began to revisit long‑standing assumptions around US equities...
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Will the US consumer hold up in 2026?
The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether...
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UK Autumn Budget: Success or shortfall?
The UK’s fiscal policy faced a pivotal moment as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her second Autumn Budget, confronting market and political pressures. The budget builds fiscal headroom mainly through tax rises deferred until 2028, sparking debate over its credibility. Markets responded...
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Is Japan doubling down on Abenomics, or redefining it?
Japan’s economic policy stands at a crossroads as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi takes office, with the legacy of Abenomics challenged by shifting market and political realities. The yen has halved against the dollar since 2012, superlong Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are at record highs,...
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Is the AI investment cycle a sign of history repeating?
Artificial intelligence has become the defining investment theme of the current market cycle, with capital expenditure on AI infrastructure reaching unprecedented levels. Hyperscalers have announced nearly $400 billion in capex for this year alone, and forecasts suggest annual increases of 30% in...
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US bank regulatory reform: Capital relief or systemic risk?
In June, US banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, proposed changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a regulatory measure used to ensure financial stability by limiting excessive leverage. Despite expectations that easing the SLR rules will unlock lending and liquidity in the…
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Are oil markets set to heat up or burn out?
Despite widespread expectations of weakening demand for oil, market fundamentals are showing signs of tightening. A slowdown in US shale production and resilient demand across emerging economies could point to a potential shift in the price of oil. When it comes to demand, elevated refining…
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Do the risks of NBFI lending outweigh the opportunities?
Commercial & Industrial loans from banks are on the decline, and lending to Main Street and consumers from non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) is on the rise. But here’s the paradox: traditional banks are fuelling this rise of NBFIs by lending capital to what were once their competitors.…
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Is the US bond market starting to rebel?
US Treasury bonds are widely regarded as the “world’s risk-free asset.” However, in recent weeks, global investors have increasingly shied away from 30-year US bonds, opting for flexible, shorter-term maturities, due to a combination of growing interest rate risk, sticky inflation and economic...
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Is this the end of the dollar as we know it?
Following the 2024 US election, predictions of a dollar rally were easy to come by, based on the presumption that President Trump would implement his proposed trade agenda. While Liberation Day and subsequent trade negotiations see some of those expectations realised, the dollar rally hasn’t...
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Will tariffs trigger a recession?
The course of the US economy has changed since the beginning of April, when tariffs were introduced – and subsequently paused. This, combined with reduced immigration and already waning consumer and business confidence in the face of growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, raises the...
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Is there too much hype for AI and the hyperscalers?
AI has been a major focal point for investors as tech companies compete for an edge in the race to deliver on its promises. The hyperscalers – tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta – have invested heavily in developing massive data centres, spending billions to stay ahead. But…
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Will European equities outperform the US in 2025?
Europe is the top performing region year to date in equity markets. Can this outperformance be sustained given the Stoxx 600 has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the last 25 years? Even backing out Big Tech from indices, European stocks are significantly discounted compared to their...
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Does inflation still matter?
Inflation has been a critical focus for investors in recent years. US headline PCE and CPI peaked at 7.2% and 9.1% in mid-2022, but with levels coming down toward the 2% Federal Reserve target rate, is it still worth the attention? Or can investors go back to more or less ignoring inflation, as...
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Will Trumponomics be incremental or transformational?
US President-elect Donald Trump has indicated his incoming administration will make major policy changes on everything from tariffs to taxes, all the the potential to transform the global economy. Will Trump's policies lead to sweeping economic change or will the effects be incremental? In…
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Is China’s economic stimulus a game-changer or window dressing?
Interest rate cuts, reduced down-payment requirements for mortgages and media reports of the re-capitalisation of banks – are just a handful of the policy changes the Chinese government announced in its recent stimulus package to get the $18trn economy moving. Chinese financial markets have...
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Does market volatility risk a US hard landing?
Recent volatility in global financial markets has left analysts and investors speculating whether it is being driven by technical factors or more fundamental shifts indicating a looming US recession. Inflation, rising US unemployment and heightened geopolitical tensions are considered major...
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Will investors benefit from the 'equitification' of credit markets?
Corporate bond and loan markets have traditionally been rigid when compared to equity markets, characterised by low liquidity, low trading volumes and higher transaction costs. In recent years, the explosion of credit ETFs and the growth of private credit markets has meant all that is changing,...
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Can consumers curb their carbon addiction?
US carbon emissions are down c.20% from their peak over the past 20 years, thanks primarily to efficiency gains, such as increased miles per gallon for cars, switching to LED lights and moving towards high-efficiency boilers. Further emission reductions will require more changes from consumers on…
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Can the Fed take credit for declining inflation?
Inflation in the US peaked at around 9% in 2022, and by January 2024, CPI inflation had fallen to 3.1%. This dramatic reduction was achieved without triggering a widely expected recession. Does the Fed’s interest rate hiking cycle deserve credit for this correction, or were other market forces...
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Can AI solve the modern productivity puzzle?
In episode 60 of The Flip Side, Hiral Patel, Head of Sustainable & Thematic Research, talks to Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research, about the extent to which and pace at which AI could boost productivity levels globally. They explore the potential costs and benefits to businesses and...
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Is US debt reaching crisis levels?
Warnings that rising US national debt levels are reaching a crisis point have waxed and waned for decades. In Flip Side podcast, our analysts discuss urgent questions about whether the current US government debt is sustainable.
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Are equity markets out of sync with the economy?
Stock prices across the developed world are generally higher this year, after falling sharply in 2022. Inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes have slowed. Yet equity markets have proven volatile in recent months, with big positive and negative swings that have not always correlated with…
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Are US house prices set to fall?
US housing has been a hot topic since the onset of COVID, with a surge in both home buying and prices. But the housing market may be set for a major correction. Jeff Meli, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, unpack what's next for the sector, and debate...
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Will Electric Vehicles Break the Electric Grid?
Electric vehicles are touted as a way to help reduce CO2 emissions, but can power grids cope with the corresponding electricity demand? Listen to Barclays Research analysts debate the challenges.
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Can the US economy outrun a recession?
In episode 55 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni discuss the warning signs for a potential US recession and whether it can be avoided or if a new cycle is already taking shape.
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Is the bank crisis over or is more fallout ahead?
The recent banking turmoil has exposed a longer-term challenge for the sector: the very nature of systemic risk is changing as runs on deposits become easier. Depositors can access their money quickly and easily through advanced digital tools, and social media platforms allow for influence and...
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What Are the Trade-Offs of Transition? (Live from ESG Conference in NYC)
At Barclays’ inaugural ESG Conference in New York City, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Senior Energy Research Analyst Lydia Rainforth recorded Episode 53 of The Flip Side live, debating whether ESG investing is helping or hindering the energy transition.
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Will inflation stall at a high level or decline much further?
Is the US economy on-track for inflation to fall back in line with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target by the end of 2023? Our research analysts share their views on inflation in the latest episode of The Flip Side.
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Will the Fed crash the US into recession in 2023?
Many forecasters, including our own economists, are expecting a US recession in 2023, driven by the rapid and ongoing hiking cycle initiated by the US Federal Reserve as it attempts to get a grip on persistently high inflation. As the US economy slows, with housing sales down 30-35% from their…
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Will high energy prices fan the flames of recession?
Barclays Research is forecasting recessions in the US, the UK and Europe, driven in part by high energy prices. Will pressure from high energy costs continue to weigh on economic activity or will it ebb as growth slows?
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What’s behind the recent UK market turmoil?
After the new UK government’s ‘mini-budget’ was announced, select UK markets slumped. In episode 49 of The Flip Side, Barclays Research analysts debate whether new fiscal policies or other market forces were the trigger.
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Is this a make-or-break moment for ESG investing?
ESG investors face rising challenges to implement effective strategies due to increasing complexity and a lack of uniform standards. Our Research analysts debate how ESG investing may evolve in episode 48 of The Flip Side.
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Is a new era of instability ahead?
Global economies are facing volatility and uncertainty after nearly 30 years of relative stability. Our analysts debate whether it's the end of an economic era.
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Are consumers pulling back?
Consumer spending has been a bright spot amidst a range of shocks to the economy, but will they continue to spend? Our analysts debate.
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As the private credit market grows will the risks increase?
Given the rapid growth of the private credit market, Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate the tradeoffs issuers and investors may face and whether the benefits outweigh the risks for both - and the wider economy.
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Should corporate purpose shift from shareholder to stakeholder?
Government, social and corporate forces are converging to redefine corporate purpose. Listen to Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Professor James C. Spindler discuss the case for and against stakeholder capitalism.
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Will the Russia-Ukraine conflict trigger a global recession?
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has far-reaching implications for markets and economies. Our Research analysts debate whether a global recession is among them.
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Is more or less volatility ahead for US equity markets?
January was a volatile month for US equities. In this episode, our Research analysts debate whether this trend will persist in the weeks and months ahead.
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Has the Fed fallen behind the curve on inflation?
The US Federal Reserve recently turned hawkish on inflation. Our Research analysts debate whether economic conditions justify the shift.
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Will COVID-19 pills be a game changer for the economy?
Oral anti-viral COVID-19 treatments have performed well in clinical trials, and approval for use is expected soon. What does this mean for the global economy?
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Is the US ready for a carbon tax?
Economists view a carbon tax as an effective solution to lower emissions, yet the United States has not implemented one. Has the time come? Jeff Meli and MIT Professor Deborah J. Lucas discuss.
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
There are two sides to every story, including in markets. On The Flip Side podcast, two Barclays Research analysts offer perspectives from different angles as they debate the economic and market themes that matter most to investors and business leaders.Each month this award-winning podcast will inform your view through contrasting positions, revealing the nuances that emerge when ideas are tested, challenged and pushed further.Through this debate, our analysts surface the dynamics that may be missed in headline‑driven narratives. The result? A clearer, more rounded understanding of what’s really moving markets that helps you make more informed decisions.For more insights from our experts: https://www.ib.barclaysImportant content disclosures: https://www.ib.barclays/disclosures/important-content-disclosures.html
HOSTED BY
Barclays Investment Bank
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does The Flip Side have?
The Flip Side currently has 88 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is The Flip Side about?
There are two sides to every story, including in markets. On The Flip Side podcast, two Barclays Research analysts offer perspectives from different angles as they debate the economic and market themes that matter most to investors and business leaders.Each month this award-winning podcast will...
How often does The Flip Side release new episodes?
The Flip Side has 88 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
Where can I listen to The Flip Side?
You can listen to The Flip Side on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts The Flip Side?
The Flip Side is created and hosted by Barclays Investment Bank.
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